The issue here is that there is clearly benefit fraud and it is bad and we should clamp down on it. But how much does it really cost?
AI says £8.6 bio (including non fraudulent but incorrect overpayment). That sounds a lot but is out of about £1.4 trillion total government expenditure, or 0.6%.
Even if we look at total health and disability payments, they have increased by £20 billion over a decade, significant but not all avoidable. Some of it is due to an ageing growing population.
OTOH, the ‘tax gap’, the difference between what should be paid and what HMRC actually gets is over £50 billion, or closer to 4%, a significant number.
And then, of course, there is the crazy pension triple lock which guarantees, over time, increases in pension cost will dramatically increase in real time. This costs a (small, but still 1.5X benefit fraud) £12.5 bio per annum, which is totally crazy and unaffordable.
Now, of course, there are many other factors at play in fairness, and the total welfare expenditure is a large number which could be made quite a lot smaller with more incentives for people to work and tougher criteria for disability payments.
In conclusion, people should ignore the TikTok dog whistle videos of Sharon with 10 kids from 5 fathers who drives a brand new BMW on benefits. If she exists at all, she is vanishingly rare, and makes little to no difference to UK PlC’s finances.
The big levers are still Income tax (including NICs), VAT, corporation tax (only 11%) and Council tax (only about 3%).
Expenditure is incredibly hard to cut unless we can make serious efficiency gains in the public sector. Otherwise it will be very painful.
Gary Stevens (economist/ex trader) makes a powerful case for a one off wealth tax. He argues that 0% interest rates. QE and Covid subsidies have meant that a lot of wealth has effectively been given to the asset rich by the government and this would just be a readjustment. I like the idea in theory, but not sure how practical it is.
Of course, if it were a significant amount, we could pay down debt. It currently costs us 8% per annum or over £100 bio to service our debt! This is only going up and will make the tax/spending balance harder every year.