US Elections - Trump or Biden, who will win?

[JustSaying101]

Intrigued to see who everyone thinks will win the current US presidential elections? I wouldn't personally vote for Trump, but I think he will manage to win another term. What do you think?

YABU = Trump will win
YANBU = Biden will win

Place your bets now!

I think Trump has gone very quiet, I am guessing they think they are now in with a good chance....otherwise I assume there would be endless tweets about court action.

I think Trump could just scrape it, things look like they're turning again😭

No - you're wrong @Kljnmw3459. Arizona, Nevada and possibly Georgia for Biden at the moment. The reason is that the counts still going on are in counties where the Democrats are more likely historically and statistically to win. For example, in Clark County, NV, which includes Las Vegas, Biden is more likely to win. In Arizona the counties still counting include the area around Phoenix and that's more likely to go with Biden. Added to which postal votes historically favour Democrat candidates and Trump told his supporters not to vote by post, but to vote in person. It's those postal votes which form much of the still uncounted ballots.

wow Invigilators are saying themselves, they have been unable to check a single postal vote, so you can call it a slur, but a court might take a different view somewhat. The votes should have been checked properly. I don't know if it will make any difference....we will have to wait and see, I am saying there ARE legal grounds to question the authenticity with such very tight margins. It would naive to assume that this won't happen, given what is at stake now. Had there been a landslide or even a comfortable win this would not be an option obviously...

At the moment, Biden is in the lead. But why are posters saying that Trump is in the lead?

Ihaveyourback I was thinking the same, Trump has gone uncharacteristically quiet... Never trust a quiet baby or Donald Trump!

What's your source @Ihaveyourback?

@secular89

At the moment, Biden is in the lead. But why are posters saying that Trump is in the lead?

Because it's what they want and they read things that support their viewpoint? I really want Biden to win, but it's really, really close.

@wowfudge might be but this is such a tight and unpredictable race that it can go either way.

I agree it could still go either way however the results this far and outstanding votes yet to be counted point to Biden winning in Arizona and Nevada. Trump's lead in Georgia has narrowed.

It was on sky news last night Invigilators on both sides confirming that not a SINGLE postal ballot paper has been checked due to covid. The is a massive oversight, and the implications legally are enormous.

This is not just the case in one or two states, but in many states.

There is no way that this will not be contested in the SC. Due to the margins of error/fraud being unacceptable in the context of such a tight race for the WH. I would imagine Biden and team know this too. No victory speech will be forthcoming as a result. Postal votes could be removed, if ordered by the SC and then that changes everything.

@Brightonbabe5

Is it the first candidate to reach 270 wins?

@Brightonbabe5

There are 538 in total, so whoever gets 270 wins. Once one gets 270 the other can’t. So no speed involved.

You might argue that this was a tactic by Trump, having ensured his voters voted in person, but it does leave the Biden team wide open to a court battle. Additionally we might want to consider why on earth proper oversight was not in place, the Democrats knew months ago that postal votes were under scrutiny. What a shocker.

Biden still looks like the most likely winner here. Trump's lead has been rapidly shrinking in Pennsylvania because they are mainly counting mail in ballots now (which are strongly leaning towards Biden). If the trend continues then Biden will win there.

Even if he loses all the other states that are in the balance, Pennsylvania alone would be enough to give Biden the presidency.

Where has not a single postal vote been counted @Ihaveyourback?

Postal votes could be removed, if ordered by the SC and then that changes everything.

Surely they couldn't do that without risking an uprising? People won't stand for their votes being cancelled.

Plus any dispute doesn't go straight to the Supreme Court. It depends whether the vote can be challenged under state law. For example, in Wisconsin the margin between the candidates has to be 1% or less in order for it to be challenged. Only when the state process has been exhausted can it be escalated to a higher court.

Also don't forget that many states only officially declare their results weeks after the polls close to allow for complete counts and recounts if necessary.

How these 2 are the best candidates in a country that massive is a fucking mystery.

not a SINGLE postal ballot paper has been checked due to covid.

Checked how? They're only just being counted in some places. What checks are you referring to?

I think they check that those who have sent postal haven't also gone into the polling station.

I think it's bollocks that no postal votes have been checked - some states count them as them come in, ahead of polling day. Even allowing for Covid 19 quarantining, at least one must have been checked and counted. Is that you Donald?

It's so likely that we won't be any wiser until tomorrow.

Now at 98% and Trump in lead

What is @Ihaveyourback - Arizona?

I can’t believe how crap these news sites are calling Arizona early. The Guardian still hasn’t added it back onto their list of states still to declare and is treating it as a Biden win. Why?

I take back my earlier comments about the BBC being behind with its vote tally - seems like they were right to be cautious!

@Dongdingdong

Now at 98% and Trump in lead

What is @Ihaveyourback - Arizona?

I can’t believe how crap these news sites are calling Arizona early. The Guardian still hasn’t added it back onto their list of states still to declare and is treating it as a Biden win. Why?

I take back my earlier comments about the BBC being behind with its vote tally - seems like they were right to be cautious!

AP has Arizona at 88% reported, and Biden still ahead - hope he hangs on in there!

Is 98% Georgia? According to CNN that's the only outstanding state anywhere near close to that number of votes counted.