Oil. Looks like there's a massive issue with supply and demand due to Iran - look at tankers and refinery capacity. Iran is targeting US allies and suppliers.
Gas. Similar to the above.
Suggests there's about to be a shock to the market globally. Massive implications.
I fear it could get worse than we might be realising at this stage. It's not going to go down well with the US public that's for sure. But it could be even worse than simply price - it could spark panic buying and/or rationing here too. I'm hoping the situation isn't as bad as this, but Im looking at this questioning the numbers here.
I'm not even considering wheat prices (and dependency of imports to certain volatile middle east and North African countries) nor lack of fertiliser issues which also feed into market volatility.
Nor am I going to touch too much on how both Ukraine and Russia actively targeting energy sources and warehousing. (Warehousing is the big logistics target of the drone war era - with this being a vulnerability domestically too).
Japan in trying to stabilise the Yen is pretty much in direct conflict with the dollar. This has not gone down well in the US. China is also putting pressure on the dollar by getting rid of us bond debt and buying oil. Collision course incoming.
Lots of chatter is about a market crash being imminent. I don't know if that will happen but there's lots of people wanting to speculate on what happens next and there's multiple governments intervening in the markets. The violatility here is troubling me in terms of what the outcome will eventually be.
The UK is exposed here due to our debt. If we can't finance our debt, we have to go begging to someone who can along with the terms and conditions that go with this. (Think about this and who has the power to enable this).
I'm getting the same vibes I got in 2007 and again in early 2020 in terms of something being off and up and something about to materialise.
I am worried an economic issue which Trump loses control of could push him into a corner and do something drastic. Equally I am worried about how it could also hand more power to Trump too. Not just in terms of money. Crises mean opportunities. There may be incentive to create a financial crisis in certain scenarios too.
I am watching how this develops but I don't think enough people are paying close enough attention to these forces. The missiles are almost distracting from the money and oil. I can see a wall of reality moment about to materialise soon.
It's making me nervous. I am not so nervous about the missiles flying around themselves (at this point at least) but I'm concerned about what the implications are of what the missiles are hitting.
So I'm not sure where this is headed fully just yet. Many options still, of various levels of shitness. But forces are coming together at the same time at a rapid rate and that I think we have a significant key point coming into focus that will bring huge consequences around the world. Forget anything Burnham says or does on the economy before this point - we are passengers to this.
None of which are likely to be good for ordinary people.
Yes, I'm nervy.