I agree with you @BIossomtoes It is a good article.
As for Reform's chances, I think and hope Marr is wrong. Caerphilly showed how voters can and will pull together. Reform know this, hence the whining about tactical voting and the framing of it as undemocratic.
Also, since the GE there have been two national by- elections(unless I have forgotten some?). Runcorn, which Reform won by just six votes and Caerphilly, which it failed to win despite the polls and the odds being in its favour.
I think that says something about Reform's ability to win seats at a national level?
The Senedd elections will be different to Westminster elections because of PR (Caerphilly was the last FPTP election) but unless something really dramatic happens Reform won't be running our lovely country.