Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Yeah, he'll say that until Vance and Witkoff start whispering to him again.

Russia is still saying that Rubio or another top official may attend Putin’s May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow.

I hope it just propaganda

As is a Free and Independent Ukraine, not perfect of course and Russia still wins but the alternative is Russia takes the lot, Europe acting far too slowly, so no salvation there.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-2025

Key Takeaways:

• The United States and Ukraine signed a bilateral economic partnership agreement on April 30.
• Russian officials continue to demand full Ukrainian capitulation as the sole basis on which Russia is willing to accept a future peace agreement.
• Peskov overinflated Russia's current military strength and battlefield victories thus far in the war in an attempt to justify Russia's continued unwillingness to make territorial concessions.
• Russian officials continue to call for the cessation of Western aid to Ukraine as part of efforts to reintensify offensive operations when Ukraine's defense capabilities are weakened.
• Senior Russian officials continue claim that Russia is open to diplomacy to end the war while rejecting US and Ukrainian ceasefire proposals that would allow for formal peace negotiations to begin.
• Russian officials continue to falsely portray European efforts to increase their own defense capabilities – in line with US President Donald Trump's objective to have Europe shoulder more of the burden for collective security - as a threat to Russian national security, likely to support Russian efforts to justify future Russian aggression against NATO.
• North Korea and Russia continue to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in the military and labor spheres.
• Ukrainian sources continue to report on cases of Russian commanders ordering their subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in violation of international law.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Toretsk.

Mike Waltz is out!

And Gorka being quoted by the BBC as saying Trump now feels Putin has been playing him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c0jz3pv55w1o

Presumably that means the ear-whispering cabal have finally decided this, so Trump will finally think this.

Gorka used the word "watershed".

Although having seen the unflushable quality of Steve Bannon, I don't imagine Vlad will ever entirely lose his grip on the orange one.

MAGA and Trump have spent the last 10 years drip feeding that Putin is good and Zelenski is bad to their cult. If Trump is doing a 180 on this, then it's going to confuse the MAGA faithful. I've had someone actually yelling in my face about the war mongerer Zelensky, and how poor Putin is only defending and taking back stolen territory. Add in Russian propaganda and the emotional attachment to this is real. I wouldn't get my hopes up on this too soon, Trumps been drawn in to this narrative an it will be two steps forward and one step back in the reasoning process. Leaders need to not become complacent.

Agreed.

It was almost inevitable after he added a lefty journalist to the secret Signal chat, but there were a lot of other factors leading up to it. Here are the details if you're interested.

Trump to Oust National Security Adviser Mike Waltz

Ironically, he had a much more impressive military career than Hegseth.

What a great post !

I saw Waltz's career - it seems strange that he made such a mistake.

Wow. Scary stuff over misinformation. Seen stuff online but shouting in your face is just so, deranged

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukrainian army retook 115 positions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-army-retook-115-positions-in-april-syrskyi-says/) in April, Syrskyi says.
Syrskyi said the successes underscored the need to further expand drone operations.

⚡️Putin may have shifted (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-may-have-shifted-war-objectives-towards-holding-occupied-territories-boosting-economy-intelligence-suggests/) war objectives towards holding occupied territories, boosting economy, intelligence suggests.
New Western intelligence suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have shifted his immediate war objectives towards holding occupied Ukrainian territories as well as growing his country's struggling economy, CNN reported on May 1, citing Western officials familiar with the matter.

⚡️ Massive drone attack reportedly targets (https://kyivindependent.com/massive-drone-attack-targets-russian-military-sites-in-occupied-crimea/) Russian military sites in occupied Crimea
The pro-Ukrainian Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported explosions in several key locations across the peninsula, including Sevastopol, Dzhankoi, Saky, Novofedorivka, and Kacha — sites that host Russian military airfields

⚡️ Witkoff's negotiation approach with Putin sparks concern (https://kyivindependent.com/trumps-envoy-witkoff-reportedly-raises-alarm-inside-us-administration/) in White House, NYP reports.
According to New York Post sources, Witkoff has even used Kremlin translators during discussions with Putin — a breach of standard U.S. diplomatic practice.

⚡️ Russia, North Korea building bridge to create ‘road of friendship' (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-north-korea-building-bridge-to-create-road-of-friendship/)
The 4.7-kilometer (3 miles) road bridge will span the Tumen River and cross the border between Russia and North Korea.

⚡️Julie Davis appointed (https://kyivindependent.com/julie-davis-to-serve-as-charge-daffaires-at-u-s-embassy-in-ukraine/) interim head of US embassy in Ukraine.
Ambassador Julie Davis will assume her duties as interim chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Ukraine starting May 5, the U.S. Embassy said in a statement on May 1, following the resignation of former U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink.

⚡️ US shifting focus (https://kyivindependent.com/us-will-step-aside-as-mediator-stay-engaged-in-ukraine-peace-process-state-department-says/) from Ukraine war mediation, calling for Kyiv and Moscow to engage directly, State Dept. says

⚡️Trump fires (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-fires-national-security-adviser-mike-waltz/) national security adviser Mike Waltz.
Steve Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy and longtime ally, is reportedly being considered as a possible replacement for Mike Waltz.

⚡️Trump confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-confirms-waltzs-resignation-nominates-him-as-us-ambassador-to-the-un/) Waltz’s resignation, nominates him as US Ambassador to the UN.

⚡️US to bring Ukraine, Russia together (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-bring-ukraine-russia-together-over-the-next-100-days-vance-says/) over the next 100 days, U.S. Vice President JD Vance says.

⚡️ Delayed cluster munitions explode in Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/delayed-cluster-munitions-explode-in-kyiv-after-russian-drone-attack-woman-injured/) after Russian drone attack, woman injured, Klitschko says.

⚡️Naftogaz profits grow 64% (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-naftogaz-doubled-profit-in-2024-despite-russian-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure/) in 2024 despite Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

⚡️ The full text (https://kyivindependent.com/the-full-text-of-the-us-ukraine-minerals-agreement/) of the US, Ukraine minerals agreement.
U.S. officials framed the agreement as a sign of lasting support for Ukraine.

⚡️Zelensky says minerals deal signing first result (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-conclusion-of-minerals-deal-is-first-result-of-talks-with-trump-in-vatican/) of talks with Trump in Vatican.

⚡️'This is a total economic partnership' — Treasury Secretary suggests reset (https://kyivindependent.com/this-is-a-total-economic-partnership-us-treasury-secretary-suggests-reset-in-relations-between-us-ukraine-amid-newly-signed-minerals-deal/) in relations between US, Ukraine amid newly-signed minerals deal.

⚡️ US-Ukraine minerals fund (https://kyivindependent.com/joint-ukraine-us-critical-minerals-fund-may-launch-within-months-official-says/) could begin operating within months, Economy Minister says

But

⚡️Experts warn US-Ukraine minerals deal may take a decade (https://kyivindependent.com/experts-warn-us-ukraine-minerals-deal-may-take-a-decade-to-deliver-returns-reuters-reports/) to deliver returns, Reuters reports.

⚡️Ukraine's Supreme Court rules religious belief (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-supreme-court-rules-religious-belief-does-not-exempt-citizens-from-military-service-during-wartime/) does not exempt citizens from military service during wartime.
The ruling comes from a case involving a member of the Jehovah’s Witnesses, a religious group whose doctrine forbids any form of military service.

What we learned from Ukrainian officials’ wealth disclosures
(https://kyivindependent.com/what-we-learned-from-ukrainian-officials-wealth-disclosures/)
Luxury watches, a collection of 20th century military uniforms, and a very expensive piano — these are just a few of the intriguing things revealed in the mandatory annual declaration of financial assets submitted by Ukrainian MPs last month.
The transparency system was established after the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution in light of the endemic corruption and cronyism that the toppled regime of President Viktor Yanukovych epitomized.

⚡️Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia kills (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-kills-1-injures-7/) 1, injures 7.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA - MAY 2, 2025
■ Engagements up, casualties close to average
■ Tank, drone & artillery losses well above average; 4 air defense systems hit
■ Visually confirmed: 17 🇷🇺 23 🇺🇦 (incl. corrections & older 🇺🇦 losses)
■ Relatively few strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine and Moldova will jointly begin the first cluster of EU accession negotiations, — announced EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
Following a conversation with Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna, Kos emphasized support for launching the negotiations with both countries simultaneously and promptly.
She highlighted Ukraine’s significant reform progress and noted that the EU Council has already given a positive recommendation to proceed with the first cluster.
Earlier, there were concerns that Ukraine and Moldova’s accession paths could be separated due to Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine’s negotiations.

❗️The United States has presented Ukraine and its European allies with 22 specific conditions for ending the war, and they have agreed to them. Now the decision lies with Russia and Putin, said Donald Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg on Fox News.
Kellogg emphasized that the first condition is a complete ceasefire on both sides for 30 days, which would create the foundation for a lasting peace. He called Moscow’s proposal for a three-day "truce" in May absurd.
He also stated that Russian claims of success on the front lines are greatly exaggerated.

A new U.S. intelligence forecast indicates that Putin has shifted his stance and short-term goals, showing increased willingness to reach a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, according to CNN.
The assessment suggests that Putin may be prepared to compromise on some of his territorial claims. However, it also warns that in the long term, Russia could resume the war and attempt to seize more Ukrainian territory.

🤦‍♂️ Russia will not allow the restoration of Ukraine to its 1991 borders – Russian Foreign Ministry.

Decommissioned US F-16 fighters are being transferred to Ukraine for use as spare parts for operational F-16s, — reports The War Zone (TWZ).

The number of victims from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to four. The strike targeted private homes, apartment buildings, educational institutions, and critical infrastructure. Rescue operations are ongoing, with people still trapped under the rubble.

Overnight, Russian forces launched a large-scale strike on the Zaporizhzhia Electric Locomotive Repair Plant of Ukrzaliznytsia. The company emphasized that the facility is purely civilian, dedicated to servicing passenger electric locomotives.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

300 Ukrainians convicted of collaborating with the enemy have asked to be exchanged (www.kyivpost.com/post/51849) for Ukrainian captives held in Russia – but the Kremlin refuses to take them off Kyiv’s hands.

How is France helping Ukraine resist Russian aggression? In this special Kyiv Post “Point of Impact” report, former Navy SEAL and war correspondent Chuck Pfarrer breaks down France’s growing role in Ukraine’s defense.

If you don't make a deal, we are going to give him [Zelensky] a lot. We will give him more then he ever got — Trump to Putin

Assassination attempt targets (www.kyivpost.com/post/51847) leading Ukrainian activist from Odesa.

“We did more than any other country” — (www.kyivpost.com/post/51899) Trump expressed his intent to rename both May 8 and November 11 “Victory Day.”

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

[repeated] Kyiv Post: Trump administration notifies Congress of plans to approve a $50 million weapons export to Ukraine.
This will be the first such export authorization since Trump returned to the White House. The arms export to Ukraine is expected to proceed through Direct Commercial Sales (DCS).

🇺🇸 Over the next 100 days, the U.S. will work to bring Ukraine’s and Russia’s peace positions closer together, said U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance.
Vance noted that there is a “very large gap” between Ukraine’s and Russia’s visions of how to end the war. However, he emphasized that the first and necessary step has already been made — both sides have presented their peace proposals.

🇺🇸 A bill on “crushing” new sanctions against Russia is supported by 72 senators in the U.S. Senate, Republican Lindsey Graham announced.
According to him, “this bill is a tool in President Trump’s arsenal” if Putin does not begin serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
The bill, reviewed by Bloomberg, proposes 500% tariffs on imports from countries that purchase Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas, or uranium. Additionally, the sanctions would prohibit U.S. citizens from buying Russian government bonds.
▪️In the U.S., laws are passed by Congress — the legislative body consisting of two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Bills are first considered by one chamber and then passed to the other. Both chambers must approve the same version of the bill before it is signed by the president.
▪️A simple majority of 100 votes in the Senate is required to pass a regular bill. Graham said he has enough support in the House of Representatives to move the sanctions bill forward there as well.

“This is Poland.” — During a rally of an anti-Ukrainian presidential candidate in Poland, the Ukrainian flag was torn down from the city hall.
The incident occurred on April 30 during a rally of presidential candidate and Member of the European Parliament Grzegorz Braun.
One of Braun’s aides climbed a ladder to the town hall balcony, removed the Ukrainian flag from its holder, and handed it to the candidate. The aide then replaced it with a Polish flag. All of this happened to chants of “This is Poland.”
Braun took responsibility for the incident, saying that his aide had removed the flag on his orders.

Oh, and more details:

Trump declared May 8 as Victory Day for the United States in World War II, and November 11 as Victory Day in World War I.
“We won both wars — no one came close to us in strength, bravery, or military brilliance — yet we never celebrate anything. That’s because we no longer have leaders who know how to do it!” he wrote.
Trump also stated that the U.S. “did much more than others” to secure victory in World War II.

Just in case you didn't think Trump was hubristic and ridiculous enough.

Trump also stated that the U.S. “did much more than others” to secure victory in World War

Frankly I'm speechless....I.sometimes wish he was.....

If you don't make a deal, we are going to give him [Zelensky] a lot. We will give him more then he ever got — Trump to Putin

Thats more like it, this is what will bring Putin to the table.

Thing is he (and others) believe it.

Behind Farage, there are a lot of rich billionaires and others who eye up the breakup of Western democracies with undisguised glee, as they will pick over the bones of our economies with a vulture's appetite. It's what comes after these people, when they don't deliver, that really scares me. Farage et al. are just opening the door; we are not yet through it

Ooops sorry wrong thread.

Sadly that's true.

You can't ignore the massive US contribution by both their armed forces and their industry to victory, especially in WW2, but it sure as hell was a team effort...

Agreed, it’s very sad to hear because WW2 was an excellent example of why true alliances are so important.