Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Checking in.

Reporting as ordered. 🇺🇲

Checking in.

🇺🇦

Thank you for the new thread MagicFox checking in 🫡 and feeling a bit despondent with recent developments.

Thanks for the new thread.

Slava Ukraini

Pm

One thing annoying me is that the essentially forced capitulation of Ukraine is being dressed up as humanitarian peace deal that is unambiguous humanitarian victory be the press. Taking the 'blessed are the peacemakers' narrative only helps the aggressor by portraying the conflict as one without an obvious agressor.

If in a hypothetical situation Russia took over the South West of England and we had to reach a negotiated settlement giving up sovreignty over this reason who in Britain could ever view a peace on these terms as postive? Why do the press seem to taking glee in positive sounding pieces looking forward to peace and 'stability'.

We need more press pieces looking at the broad and vital point is that in 21at century Europe a sovereign state has had to abandon territory through aggression and there will be a treaty to validate the most flagrant obvious breach of international law.

If peace is achieved we still are living in a more dangerous world and to think this is not the case is head burying of the most awful scale. We need the press to point out that the post WW2 rules based world order has now gone and we live in a uncertain time of shifting alliances and a constant undercurrent of the threat of war which could last gnerations. A new cold war has begun.

Rant over 😔

@mids2019

We need more press pieces looking at the broad and vital point is that in 21at century Europe a sovereign state has had to abandon territory through aggression and there will be a treaty to validate the most flagrant obvious breach of international law.

Very much agree but the media seem to be too keen on playing up the joys of a “collation of who is willing to say something this week” to actually report on the really big picture.

@mids2019 its more than the South west of England. 18% of Ukraine is roughly 45% of the UK.

But I get your drift!!

Checking in

Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox. checking in.

Thank you 🌻

Thanks to @MagicFox and everyone for these threads which are such a valuable bastion of sanity in an increasingly bewildering world. 🌻

@MagicFox on the Lithuania suggestion, it was in the roundup from Ducks and seen it on social media from leading academics. Seems to be because Russia and Belarus have big exercises on the border with Lithuania in Sept.

Ah I missed that! Thanks, will look back

I cannot say how much I value everyone on this thread, even if and when we disagree, you all keep me sane and make me feel less alone in this shitty time.

And that includes lurkers 👋 I take great comfort knowing there are more people out there who care.

On Starmer, think he’s in an impossible situation. He wants the US backstop for peacekeepers, Ukraine needs US support for as long as possible- so some sensible voices to keep that on the table are key, and if we need to buy US arms then having good relations, minus tariffs, is critical. I couldn’t play it the way he is, but I do think it’s important that he stays as unemotive about it all as possible (which tbf is his forte!)

I can only imagine there are explosive discussions going on with Special Advisors and military folks behind closed doors.

Here until Ukraine is FREE

@dibly

and if we need to buy US arms then having good relations, minus tariffs, is critical

Short term the likes of the UK will probably have to buy some US arms to top up existing orders, but long term it should be obvious doing so is a bit of a mugs game.

It’s now clear US equipment comes with a lot of strings attached, both in terms of support and conditions of use/onwards sale (for example the dreaded ITAR which amongst other things complicated supplying F-16s to Ukraine)…so there’s a need to diversify and there are signs it’s already happening. I don’t think Trump is very popular ATM in the boardrooms of companies like Lockheed Martin…

@Igotjelly

Re Starmer and I can only imagine there are explosive discussions going on with Special Advisors and military folks behind closed doors …

I’m not so sure…the very senior military advisors will probably be inclined to tell the PM whatever BAE systems want him to hear….and given their involvement in the F-35 that’ll probably be “don’t rock the boat”, rather than “we need to consider buying off or doing a deal with Dassault or SAAB….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Traffic_in_Arms_Regulations

Thank you for the new thread @MagicFox

I'm quieter atm as 1) I don't think I have much to add in terms of analysis - I haven't kept up with in depth articles over the last 2 years, and 2) this is just so utterly heartbreaking - what's happening to Ukraine and likely to happen to Ukraine, and that the US between one month and the next has turned coat and turned dangerous. I don't believe the threats against Greenland are just hot air and I certainly don't believe the US-bought equipment can be relied on now.

(edited for typo)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
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6h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA - MAR 24, 2025
■ Daily losses below average ■ Record 7-day losses: total & landbased equipm., drones & artillery
■ 4 helicopters (first since Jan)
■ Visually confirmed: 58 🇷🇺 73 🇺🇦 (mostly from Kursk)
■ Strike ratio slightly below avg

Reading @Igotjelly post today (on previous thread) querying why we are continuing to pretend all is normal, I was reminded of the lead up to WW2. I have never really understood the prolonged period of trying to keep the peace with Hitler when he had War written all over him. I sympathise with the fact that a whole generation of men had been wiped out just 20 years earlier and that we weren't equipped to go to war but Churchill was absolutely right for ripping that plaster off. Thing is, the plaster is now fucking huge, it's Russia AND the USA, I'd love to know how Churchill would approach this. Would he try to wait out this administration and walk a tightrope of diplomacy for the next 3.5 years and hope Russia will piss them off soon enough?