Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

*

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia’s Shahed drones just got deadlier (www.kyivpost.com/post/53025) – now armed with new 90-kg warheads featuring fragmentation, high-explosive, and even incendiary effects.

Scandals over mass troop desertions and weapons shortages repeatedly (www.kyivpost.com/post/53043) rocked the Paris-promoted 155th Brigade in 2024. AFU top brass has vowed to fix things again and promised “harsh reprisals” for anyone “profiting from soldiers’ blood.”

Rubio prepares for a Senate grilling (www.kyivpost.com/post/53013) over Ukraine as he plans to convince senators that Trump’s Ukraine policy is to “move decisively” to end the war.

6 Ukrainian soldiers killed, (www.kyivpost.com/post/53063) 10+ injured after a Russian Iskander missile hit a military training camp in Ukraine’s Sumy region. Strike occurred near the border during training. Investigation underway.

A photo of killed Andriy Portnov — former advisor to exiled Ukrainian President Yanukovych.
Reports say he was shot dead in front of his children. [Ugh]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

⚡️🇪🇺The European Union has approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia — targeting nearly 200 ships of its shadow fleet.
The new sanctions also aim to counter hybrid threats from Russia and to protect human rights.

[more info] 🇺🇸🇺🇦 The U.S. plans a “voluntary deportation” program for migrants using foreign aid funds — including Ukrainians, The Washington Post reports, citing internal documents.
The Trump administration wants to allocate $250 million from the foreign aid budget to launch a program offering “voluntary deportation.” Migrants who agree to return to their home countries would receive travel assistance and a one-time payment of $1,000.
This could potentially affect up to 200,000 Ukrainians. While nationalities are not specified in the plans, the documents refer to individuals holding temporary protected status — which allows them to stay in the U.S. due to danger in their home country.
The documents have already been signed by the U.S. Department of State and the Department of Homeland Security, although a final decision has not yet been made.

The New York Times told (www.nytimes.com/2025/05/18/world/europe/ukraine-woman-combat-pilot.html) the story of the only female combat pilot in the Ukrainian army.
Lieutenant Kateryna flies a Mi-8 helicopter. She joined the 18th Separate Army Aviation Brigade in 2023 and completed her first combat mission in September 2024. She has now completed more than 30 combat sorties.
At the age of 16, Kateryna enrolled in the Kharkiv National Air Force University, where she was the only female cadet. During her studies, one instructor told her: “What are you doing here? This isn’t for girls. You won’t succeed.” However, she says it was a female flight simulator instructor who inspired her not to give up.
Kateryna notes that deeply rooted stereotypes among male commanders and rank-and-file soldiers remain difficult to overcome, and women are generally marginalized and underutilized in the armed forces.

📄🇭🇺 Over 80 editors of leading European media outlets have signed a petition urging Hungary not to pass a law resembling Russia’s “foreign agents” legislation.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s party submitted a bill that would restrict the activities of foreign-funded media and human rights organizations. These organizations could even be shut down if the government deems them a threat to Hungary or its culture.
Hungarian media, think tanks, and human rights groups say the law is intended to suppress political dissent. People have taken to the streets in protest.

Stocks of European defense companies have surged by hundreds or even thousands of percent since the beginning of 2022.
This is a consequence of the war, European investments in defense, and Trump’s “Make America Great Again” approach. So far, it’s working to make Rheinmetall and other European companies great.

TWZ has a very comprehensive background piece on Golden Dome, with lots of good graphics and videos.

https://www.twz.com/space/trumps-golden-dome-missile-shield-what-we-just-learned-and-its-implications

I think it may have been Larry Niven who floated this "shield the whole US" idea to Ronald Reagan, who leaped at it like a homing goldfish and thereby caused a lot of amusement to the convention-going science fiction fans. We recognised it, you see; a good ol' sf idea....

i see Trump is trying to pull the old ambush stunt on Ramaphosa as well….

Cyril Ramaphosa seems very calm and competent. And he's brought his white colleague. But Trump cannot listen.

Actually I think I may be wrong, and it wasn't just Niven but Niven and one of his mates, who might have been Jerry Pournelle: "He was one of the founders of the Citizens' Advisory Council on National Space Policy, which developed some of the Reagan Administration's space initiatives, including the earliest versions of what would become the Strategic Defense Initiative" says Wikipedia of Pournelle.

Same difference, though; the two wrote SF together a few times. The Mote in God's Eye is possibly the best known, or Inferno.

Footfall was another novel they wrote together. It was a masterpiece, one of my all time favorites. And yes, there was a military angle to it. 😁

Indeed. But one did not rush out to act on the basis of their SF output!

You are twisting what I wrote and it is really nasty (and bizarre) of you. I asked for a copy showing the changes as it would be quicker than googling and wading through various websites trying to find it. Have a look yourself, it is complicated and not a quick google!

So if someone has one which has annotations showing the various changes through the years, please could you link. I thought that there might be someone here who would have it.

I referred to martial law, legitimacy and the others as they were times I remembered mentions of changes to constitution in the news. They were just recent examples. I'd like a copy showing changes going right back to 1996 if possible. I think it was not used for a period and then used again in 2010? There is no possibility I will be posting here about what is in the constitution or about legitimacy, or anything else here. I would just like an annotated copy if someone has it.

Thanks

@readtheconstitution it is best you do your own research.

That's fine, thanks for the reply. It might be that an annotated version doesn't exist yet.

You want an annotated version of a constitution with all of the amends from the 90s until now ? And what do you mean it wasn’t used since 2010? A constitution is not something that is used and then put to one side every now and then, it’s a fundamental document underpinning virtually everything within a state.

Yes, I want an annotated version showing all changes made since 1996.

I didn't say it "wasn't used since 2010"!

Don't worry, I will do my own research, it isn't a problem. I just thought it might be quicker getting it from here.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast.
• Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term given Russia's demonstrated inability to rapidly seize even much smaller settlements in Ukraine in the past three years.
• Russia continues to promote the false narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of "neo-Nazism" as part of dual Kremlin efforts to justify continued Russian offensive operations in Ukraine despite ongoing peace talks, and to prepare the Russian population for a Russian rejection of any future peace agreement.
• Russia continues to reject American proposals to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine before starting negotiations to end the war.
• Russian officials are setting conditions to refuse Western involvement in peace negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine and for Russia to deny the independence and sovereignty of other former Soviet states.
• Russian security services continue to conduct hybrid operations against the United States and its allies in preparation for a larger future war with NATO.
• The recent establishment of the first formal motorcycle unit within the Ukrainian military demonstrates the rapid technical adaptation cycle that has become typical in Ukraine and that will become a key characteristic of future wars.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka.

Jesus wept. Just seen a report of what Russian soldiers did to a family with a newborn. Jesus wept, that country's army needs erasing.

All of them. Not one Russian soldier left living, conscript or voluntary. Jesus Christ in Heaven.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️'We don't want this anymore' — Russia rejects (kyivindependent.com/we-dont-want-this-anymore-russia-rejects-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine-lavrov-says/) a ceasefire in Ukraine, Lavrov says.
Russia rejects a ceasefire in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on May 21.

⚡️NATO summit in The Hague to focus on long-term support, lasting peace for Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/nato-summit-in-the-hague-to-focus-on-long-term-support-and-lasting-peace-for-ukraine-rutte-says/), Rutte says.

⚡️ EU officially agrees (kyivindependent.com/eu-officially-agrees-on-150-billion-euro-defense-fund/) on 150-billion-euro defense fund.
"SAFE is an advantageous, low-interest, multi-year loan guaranteed by the EU budget," the Council of the EU said.

⚡️Ukraine dismisses Russian claims of full control over Kursk Oblast (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-dismisses-russian-claims-of-full-control-over-kursk-oblast-says-fighting-ongoing/), says fighting ongoing.
"The statements by representatives of (Russia) about the alleged end of combat operations in Kursk Oblast do not reflect the actual situation," the General Staff said.

⚡️Poland intercepts Russian sanctions-evading ship (kyivindependent.com/poland-intercepts-russian-sanctions-evading-ship-near-critical-baltic-power-cable-tusk-says/) near critical Baltic power cable, Tusk says.
"After the effective intervention of our military, the ship sailed to one of the Russian ports," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X.

Top commander’s resignation puts new scrutiny on Ukraine’s military leadership

• (kyivindependent.com/top-ukrainian-commander-slams-military-leadership-in-resignation-letter-as-command-culture-problems-persist/)* Ukraine’s military has once again been rocked by a scandal around its leadership culture, with another high-profile commander speaking out against the country’s top brass over bad orders leading to excess losses. On May 16, well-renowned officer Oleksandr Shyrshyn, callsign “Genius,” announced his resignation from his position as battalion commander of Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade. "I’ve never received dumber orders than the ones in our current sector,” wrote Shyrshyn, whose brigade was moved to Russia’s Kursk Oblast in October and is now holding the line along the border with Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast.

⚡️Ukrainian officials deny Russian troop presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-officials-deny-russian-troop-presence-at-dnipropetrovsk-oblast-border/).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak called the claims "fake" and said that the accompanying photograph allegedly showing Russian troops in the area was also fabricated.

⚡️ Finland expecting further Russian military build-up (kyivindependent.com/finland-expecting-russian-military-build-up-at-border-after-ukraine-war-ends/) at border after Ukraine war ends.
Finland shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia and joined NATO in 2023.

⚡️UK accuses Russian GRU of carrying out cyberattacks (kyivindependent.com/uk-exposes-russian-intelligence-cyber-campaign-targeting-logistics-technology-organizations/) targeting logistics, technology organizations.
The United Kingdom has exposed a cyber campaign orchestrated by Russian military intelligence (GRU) targeting logistics and technology organizations involved in delivering foreign assistance to Ukraine, the UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NSCS) announced on May 21.

⚡️Mass Ukrainian drone strike (kyivindependent.com/russia-intercepts-drone-attack-on-moscow-oblast-prompting-airport-closures/) targets Moscow, Russia claims, multiple airports closed.
Russian air defense systems shot down 105 Ukrainian drones overnight on May 22, including 35 intercepted over Moscow Oblast, the Russian Defense Ministry has claimed.
All four Moscow airports — Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky — as well as airports in Tambov and Vladimir were temporarily closed.

⚡️ Dan opposes (kyivindependent.com/president-elect-dan-opposes-romanian-peacekeepers-in-ukraine-but-affirms-pro-kyiv-course/) Romanian peacekeepers in Ukraine but affirms pro-Kyiv course.

⚡️Ukraine to pitch (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-pitch-harsher-sanctions-on-russia-to-eu-next-week-as-us-sanctions-fall-through-reuters-reports/) harsher Russian sanctions to EU next week as US sanctions fall through, Reuters reports.

⚡️Almost 50,000 draft-age men detained trying to illegally cross (kyivindependent.com/almost-50-000-draft-age-men-detained-trying-to-illegally-cross-border-since-2022-state-border-guard-says/) border since 2022, Border Guard says.
The number of cases has "significantly increased" since the beginning of martial law, according to Ukraine's State Border Guard Service.

⚡️4 Chechen officers killed in car bombing (kyivindependent.com/4-chechen-officers-killed-in-car-bombing-in-russian-occupied-part-of-kherson-oblast/) in Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Ukraine's HUR claims.

⚡️Fire breaks out (kyivindependent.com/at-least-2-people-die-in-fire-at-thermal-power-plant-in-kyiv-oblast/) at thermal power plant in Kyiv Oblast, 2 dead.
Rescuers continue to work at the scene, while the consequences of the accident are still being determined.

What happens to all the guns in Ukraine post-war?
(kyivindependent.com/as-ukraines-peace-talks-gather-steam-experts-plan-ahead-for-post-ceasefire-gun-control/)
As peace talks ramp up, experts and officials are already working on a looming post-war threat: the potential large-scale proliferation of guns in Ukraine once they are no longer needed on the battlefield.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-2-injure-27-over-past-day/) against Ukraine kill 2, injure 27 over past day.
Ukrainian forces downed 74 out of the 128 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, and an Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported.
Thirty-eight drones disappeared from radars without causing any damage, according to the statement.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA – MAY 22, 2025
■ Combat engagements & casualties well below the 7-day average
■ Equipment losses up between days but also below average; 4 tank losses reported
■ Marked rise in 🇺🇦 strikes, improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The European Parliament has called on Brussels to completely freeze funding for Hungary, LRT reports.
A group of deputies made the appeal, accusing Budapest of restricting freedoms, undermining democracy and judicial independence, and failing to comply with EU laws and values.
“Continuing to finance a corrupt regime that openly undermines European values is unacceptable,” reads a letter signed by 26 deputies.

NATO member states will discuss military support for Ukraine at the NATO summit in The Hague to ensure Ukraine is in the best position to continue the fight and that any future peace agreement is durable, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.
He emphasized the need to avoid repeating the mistakes of the Minsk agreements:
"That is what I expect from the Hague summit, and I am quite confident that we can achieve that."

❗️It will take more than a century to occupy all of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.
At the current pace of the Russian Armed Forces, it would take several years to capture just the Donetsk region.
“Putin believes he can quickly seize all four regions — but this is completely unrealistic.”

Technical talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine could take place next week in the Vatican, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said.
He noted that the situation is developing favorably for Ukraine, as Europe—alongside the United States—has joined the negotiations

France will transfer six modern ROCUS robotic demining systems to Ukraine. These were developed in cooperation between Estonia’s Milrem Robotics and France’s CNIM Systèmes Industriels.
According to Milrem Robotics, the systems are based on the THeMIS tracked platform developed in Estonia. The project was funded by the French government, and the systems will be handed over to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service.
The drones enable remote detection, verification, and neutralization of threats, greatly improving sapper safety.
A total of 15 Milrem Robotics systems are already in use in Ukraine.

Last year, the EU paid €23 billion for Russian energy, European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen said.
“By 2022, half of the coal we imported into the EU was Russian. We’ve stopped importing it completely. Oil imports dropped from 27% to 3%. And gas—from 45% in 2022 to 13% today. Still, in 2023, we paid Russia €23 billion for energy,” Jørgensen noted.
He told MEPs that the European Commission aims to remove Russian gas from EU markets by 2027, and all Russian energy sources by 2030.
Jørgensen announced new rules to track Russian gas on the market and said the Commission expects national plans from member states to gradually phase out Russian energy.

A CNN investigation has revealed that Russian troops were ordered to capture only Ukrainian commanders and execute all other soldiers.
Journalists obtained drone footage and radio intercepts from November 2024, showing the surrender of Ukrainian troops in the Novodarivka area of the Zaporizhzhia region. In the intercepted audio, a Russian commander is heard instructing fighters from the “Arte” and “Belom” groups:
"Ask who is the commander. Who is the commander? Ask. The commander is captured, the rest are at the expense."

A camouflaged “Bohdana” howitzer, equipped with lattice screens, in service with the 47th Separate Artillery Brigade.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia is amassing troops near the Kharkiv region, possibly preparing new assaults. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53112)

After Monday’s conversation with Putin, US President Trump dropped his call for a ceasefire and is satisfied that Moscow is ready to negotiate with Kyiv, Bild reported, citing sources in the office of German Chancellor Merz.

North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong-un was incandescent (www.kyivpost.com/post/53141) after witnessing the failure of the much-anticipated launch of North Korea’s latest 5,000-ton warship using a novel, unproven methodology.

Polish PM Tusk said the EU will ditch duty-free trade with Ukraine (www.kyivpost.com/post/53108) – the rollback of the ATM mechanism could cost Ukraine up to €3 billion annually, gutting wartime export revenue.

Over 63,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since Ukraine launched its offensive in Russia’s Kursk region.

Russian military hackers targeted (www.kyivpost.com/post/53132) border cameras to spy on and sabotage Western aid deliveries to Ukraine.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🤡"The procedure for the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 was violated, which means the Soviet Union still legally exists." - said Anton Kobyakov, advisor to the President of the Russian Federation.

Trump is convinced of Russia’s victory — that’s what he indicated during a phone call with European leaders
According to Bloomberg (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/russian-advance-in-ukraine-is-slowing-despite-putin-s-confidence?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true), (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/russian-advance-in-ukraine-is-slowing-despite-putin-s-confidence?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true) citing sources, the U.S. President also repeated several Kremlin talking points during the conversation.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reports (www.nytimes.com/2025/05/20/us/politics/trump-ukraine-russia.html) that after speaking with Putin, Trump told Zelensky and European leaders that Kyiv and Moscow must find a way out of the war on their own.

For the first time, Trump admitted that Putin does not want peace — this occurred during a conversation with European leaders, reports The Wall Street Journal.

An opinion piece by Edward Lucas in The Times today, I’m hoping it’s a bit alarmist but everything is pointing to Europe having to get their act together militarily - and fast.

Trump's turmoil gives Putin a chance to strike

A Russian attack on Nato is now far likelier than we think and we're defenceless without the US

Posit a Russian attack on Nato and people scoff. More than three years into Vladimir Putin's three-day war in Ukraine, his forces have made limited progress, at huge cost. Fully reconstituting Russia's army after a ceasefire there would take years. Its spluttering economy is smaller than Italy's. In a letter to this paper last year, Sir Tony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia, said Kremlin insiders knew a direct challenge to Nato would be an “unmitigated catastrophe” for them. “Tallinn and Warsaw are about as threatened as the moon,” he wrote.
I visit these and other frontline cities regularly (Brenton tells me he has not). People there do not share his view. The Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, just unveiled an evacuation plan for its 540,000 residents. The border with Belarus, Russia's military satrapy, is only 22 miles away. A new book published in Russia, with an approving foreword by the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, claims Lithuania is an artificial statelet run by a Russophobic Nazi clique: exactly the sort of language used to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
What worries these countries is less a full-scale attack than a landgrab or similar stunt, coupled with threats that test and break Nato's resolve. That would pose huge dangers for us here in Britain. Will we really risk war with Russia for some symbolic scrap of territory in eastern Europe? Suppose the Kremlin underlines its point with crippling sabotage, or the use of long-range missiles that swamp our flimsy air defences and rain destruction on our cities? Do we really believe that Donald Trump would go to war in our defence?
This is not, in Brenton's words, “baseless alarmism”. Such worries are voiced with increasing volume by serious defence thinkers. Nato chiefs have warned that the alliance must be ready to confront a Russian attack on one or more of the bloc's members within three to seven years. Danish military intelligence recently said that Russia could launch some sort of attack within six months of a pause in the fighting in Ukraine. The first stage in such a conflict would be “grey zone” attacks on infrastructure, business systems and individuals, jangling nerves and disrupting daily life. Some worry that is already under way.
“Russia's primary goal in a war against Nato would not be to seize large territories — at least, not initially — but to destroy the alliance as a political and military entity,” argues the Oslo-based missile expert Fabian Hoffmann in a thought-provoking piece just published in Foreign Policy. Like Brenton, he agrees that decision-makers in Moscow know Russia would most likely lose a full-on conventional war with Nato. But he draws a different conclusion: that Russia must therefore fight another kind of war — quick, localised and winnable. Its war machine, he reckons, is well up to that task.
The motive, often overlooked here, is that Russia believes it is in an existential, do-or-die confrontation with a far stronger West. Trump's destabilisation of the transatlantic alliance may provide an opportunity to reverse what is seen as the humiliating geopolitical setback of the Soviet collapse in 1989-91. And such an opportunity may best be seized before Trump leaves office.
For decades, Europe's security was almost entirely based on the (perhaps optimistic) belief that we will fight only alongside the United States. That was always a big bet on the willingness of the US president to subsidise our defence and to risk his country for its allies' safety. The odds on that lengthen alarmingly if the US is distracted by a crisis over Taiwan or by a Trumpian tantrum. Either could be mere weeks away.
Suppose Ukraine refuses to accept whatever ceasefire deal Trump cooks up with Putin and turns instead to Europeans for support. Trump will then insist that Britain and other countries arm-twist the Ukrainians to give in. If we refuse, he can easily punish us by standing down US forces in Europe.
We are easily bullied by both Washington and Moscow. Without America we are all but defenceless. European Nato countries would lack command and control, the electronic eyes and ears needed to make sense of the battlefield, the heavy lift capability to move troops around and the vast stockpiles needed if our hollowed-out militaries are to sustain a fight for more than a few days.
Worse, not only are we unable to fight, we are largely unwilling. Most European countries have little tolerance for risk or pain. An opinion poll last year suggested only about a third of Europeans were willing to fight for their country if it was attacked (numbers shoot up as you go east). Forestalling such a Russian stunt would mean providing credible defence to the frontline states (long promised but not yet delivered) and developing a daunting response to coercion, including the willpower and capability for counterstrikes on Russian territory. That stretches the imagination. Would Germany really agree — in the face of Kremlin nuclear sabre-rattling — to flatten Russia's air defences in the exclave of Kaliningrad within the first few hours of a landgrab in neighbouring Lithuania? If they do not, then the war is lost.
Belatedly, Europe is getting its act together, rebuilding its defence and deterrence and telling the citizenry that freedom needs defending. For Russia to have any chance of forestalling this, it must act when the chances of success are greatest. As Lithuania's former foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis asked a security conference in Tallinn last week: “Why would Putin wait until we are ready?” Opportunity knocks.

It's possibly alarmist/worse case but TBH I'm already sensing a creep back to the days when the Europe/UK side of NATO appeared to be mainly about bi-annual strategy conferences and the setting up multiple commitees.

Someone needs to keep leaning on those in the "Coalition of the Willing" to help ensure they actually start buying and deploying kit, not just talking about it.

New thread: https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5338513-ukraine-invasion-part-57?utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=app_share

🇺🇦