Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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How has it not been clear to the US that Russia is the obstacle already though? It’s very evident who started the war, who’s been kidnapping children, seizing ground, raping and torturing etc. I don’t understand how that was ever in doubt?

If it brings lasting peace, and saves Ukranian lives in the meantime then that’s all to the good, but Russia is apparently on a mass bombing venture across Ukraine right now. It will be interesting to see Trump’s supporters do a u turn on social media now and back supporting Ukraine.

Putting the ball in Putin's court was a good move, now it'll show just how willing to approach peace Putin is(n't). But I suspect he'll agree to a ceasefire then do a false flag attack on his own men, creating justification for breaking the ceasefire and making it all Ukraine's fault.

How has it not been clear to the US that Russia is the obstacle already though? It’s very evident who started the war, who’s been kidnapping children, seizing ground, raping and torturing etc. I don’t understand how that was ever in doubt?

It isn't. The leaders are twisting it for their own purposes; no moral compass at all, and I'm not sure some of them have any grip on reality. It seems possible that Trump is simply incapable of realising there is a reality for people beyond -his- own self interest.

When you're dealing with someone like that, strength is all that's admirable and anyone weak deserves pushing around. People only have value in as far as they are useful to you, and anyone who doesn't fall into line and work for your interests is bad. As C S Lewis put it, they are 'dreadfully practical' people.

Seems Lavrov has been out pouring cold water on any ceasefire proposal. Can’t say I’m even a tiny bit shocked.

He claims Russia won’t accept any ceasefire deal that “jeopardises lives” - by which I read “prevents them from killing Ukrainians”

Saw rumours of that last night. Let's see.

I understood Lavrov's response, was actually what he said earlier but published yesterday?

Though anyone who things Putin genuinely wants negotiated, fair peace, is bonkers, he could have had that at anytime since feb 2022.

Swedish media is reporting that Russia has given 4 (5 actually) non negotiable conditions for a ceasefire, and Trump has agreed.

1. The west stops all military support for Ukraine.
2. Recognition that occupied territories are now Russian.
3. Russian language, culture and church to be reinstated as the primary culture in Ukraine.
4. Implimentation of the Istanbul agreement, ie Ukraine demilitarised and neutral.

Plus Zelensky removed as president.

marcusoscarsson.se/uppgifter-ryssland-staller-fyra-ultimatum-usa-sager-ja-till-allihop/

So Trump has gift wrapped Ukraine for Putin. And this is only ceasefire conditions!

I can't imagine Ukraine, France, Britain, Germany etc agreeing to those terms so they need to prepare for the ceasefire not to happen. When your demands are so outrageous, you can't be seen to be negotiating in good faith.

There is zero chance that those conditions will happen.

And so Trump will blame Ukraine/Europe again probably for not accepting the ridiculous conditions! This is a total farce!

I don’t know if the link will work but this caught my eye and it certainly is something I understand too well.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/ukrainian-indentity-war-russia/681968/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Master of the cargo ship that crashed into the oil tanker off Hull, is a Russian national.

So a total accident... not.

I’ve assumed for a while now that the US administration just want to stop spending money on Ukraine at any cost - it’s a long way away , not on their doorstep and they can just ignore it . The fact that a few of them have seen active service makes that ten times worse to me - those men know the realities of war .

Ooh where are you seeing that? I suspected something like that might be the case.

Oh seeing it now on BBC, surprised I most certainly am not. Their “hybrid” warfare is shameless.

Let's not forget that ordinary Russians are also very tired of the war and killing of their soldiers.

There is an unconditional offer on table from Ukraine of a ceasefire that can stop the deaths of soldiers from both sides.

It will become massively unpopular with ordinary Russians if their Government rejects the ceasefire or adds conditions that prevent it.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ceasefire 'has never seemed closer,' Yermak says (kyivindependent.com/lasting-peace-in-ukraine-requires-increased-pressure-on-russia-security-guarantees-yermak-says/) but stresses need for security guarantees.

⚡️ Ukraine agrees to 30-day ceasefire if Russia abides (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-agrees-to-30-day-ceasefire-if-russia-abides-by-it-kyiv-says/) by it, Kyiv says.

⚡️US restores Ukraine aid (kyivindependent.com/us-restores-ukraine-aid-following-breakthrough-talks-senior-ukrainian-official-says/) following breakthrough talks, senior Ukrainian official says.

⚡️ US resumes sharing intelligence (kyivindependent.com/us-resumes-sharing-intelligence-with-ukraine-gabbard-confirms/) with Ukraine, Gabbard confirms.

⚡️ Trump to invite Zelensky (kyivindependent.com/trump-invites-zelensky-back-to-white-house-following-saudi-talks/) back to White House following Saudi talks.

⚡️ Maxar reportedly restores (kyivindependent.com/maxar-technologies-restores-ukraines-access-to-high-resolution-satellite-imagery/) Ukraine's access to high-resolution satellite imagery.

⚡️ Ukraine, US to start discussing ceasefire details (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-teams-to-start-ceasefire-technical-discussions-next-week-yermak-said/) next week, Yermak says.

⚡️Trump will talk to Putin soon as Russia flags possible contact with US (kyivindependent.com/trump-will-talk-to-putin-soon-as-russia-flags-possible-contact-with-us-in-coming-days/) in coming days.

⚡️'Ball is in their court' — Rubio on Russia's move toward ceasefire with Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/ball-is-in-their-court-rubio-on-russias-move-toward-ceasefire-with-ukraine/).

⚡️ Putin unwilling to compromise (kyivindependent.com/putin-unwilling-to-compromise-in-peace-talks-setting-maximalist-demands/) on Ukraine, sets maximalist demands, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️ US to inform Russia of US-Ukraine talks progress (kyivindependent.com/kremlin-expecting-us-to-provide-information-on-talks-with-ukraine-in-saudi-arabia/) in Saudi Arabia, Peskov claims.

⚡️Macron rallies Europe to back Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/macron-rallies-europe-to-back-ukraine-following-ceasefire-talks/) following ceasefire talks, Le Monde reports.

⚡️Ukraine, US discuss potential ceasefire, minerals deal in (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-discuss-potential-ceasefire-deal-on-rare-earth-during-1st-round-of-talks-media-reports/) Saudi Arabia, media reports.

⚡️ OSCE Secretary General visits Moscow (kyivindependent.com/osce-secretary-general-visits-moscow-shown-aftermath-of-ukrainian-drone-strikes/), shown aftermath of Ukrainian drone strikes, Russia says.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu, who visited Moscow on March 11, was shown the aftermath of reported Ukrainian drone attacks.

⚡️Iceland allocates (kyivindependent.com/iceland-allocates-over-2-million-to-support-ukrainian-energy-sector/) over $2 million to support Ukrainian energy sector.

⚡️Over 50% of Ukrainians think West holds back (kyivindependent.com/over-50-of-ukrainians-think-west-fears-russias-loss-in-war-and-hold-back-military-aid-poll-shows/) military aid in fear of Russia losing war.

⚡️ Russia, China, Iran hold joint naval drills (kyivindependent.com/russia-china-iran-hold-joint-naval-drills-in-gulf-of-oman/) in Gulf of Oman.
The exercises, named Maritime Security Belt 2025, were held near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route through which a fifth of the world's traded crude oil passes.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes Russian oil facilities in Moscow, Oryol oblasts in mass strike [10 - 11 March 25] military claims. (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-oil-facilities-in-moscow-oryol-oblasts-overnight-military-claims/)
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked the Moscow Oil Refinery and a Druzhba oil pipeline facility in Oryol Oblast overnight on March 11, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.
The statement comes after Russia claimed to have downed over 330 Ukrainian drones in the Moscow, Oryol, and eight other oblasts in a massive drone strike.

⚡️Half of Ukrainians say territorial concessions, forfeiting NATO membership in exchange for ending war 'completely unacceptable.' (https://kyivindependent.com/47-of-ukrainians-oppose-to-refuse-from-nato-making-territorial-concession-in-exchange-for-ending-war-poll-shows/)
According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) at the request of the Kyiv Independent, 47.1% of Ukrainians consider it "completely unacceptable" to agree to territorial concessions and give up on NATO membership as a prerequisite to ending the war.
Only 8.2% said they would "easily agree" to this scenario, while 38.1% of respondents called this option difficult but "generally acceptable."

⚡️ Georgia's ex-President Saakashvili sentenced to 9 more years in prison (kyivindependent.com/georgian-ex-president-saakashvili-sentenced-to-nine-more-years-in-prison-for-embezzlement/) on embezzlement charges.

⚡️ Oil shipments via Druzhba pipeline halted due to Ukrainian drone attack (kyivindependent.com/oil-shipments-via-druzhba-pipeline-halted-due-to-ukraines-attack-hungary-says/) in Russia, Hungary says.

⚡️ Ukraine downs 98 of 133 drones (kyivindependent.com/attacks-132/) launched by Russia overnight.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-on-donetsk-oblast-kills-4-injures-5/) on Donetsk Oblast kill 4, injure 5.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - MAR 12, 2025
■ 4th most engagements to date (2nd highest this year), highest casualties this month so far
■ Fewer equipment losses but artillery losses stay above average
■ Relatively few 🇺🇦 strikes but 🇷🇺 strikes are also below average

…Maybe…I’m maintaining the right to be slightly sceptical, as ever…

Elsewhere I’ve been reading hair raising tales from salty seafarers (ex mil and civil) of ships occasionally running around with the bridge unmanned uncrewed at times for various lengths of time whilst the officer on the watch goes to the loo, goes for food, falls asleep…..

People (including posters on another thread) seem to have a lot of faith in “automatics” but if in my (now dated experience) if you program an autopilot on many vehicles that have them to “go to” position xxxx, yyy it’ll do it, it’ll go straight there, right through any obstacles. All the collision warning systems in world won’t save you if there’s nobody around to hear them and take action.

What might be significant in this case is that the police have stepped in so quickly with an arrest so they either know something illegal has gone on (e.g. deliberate act or bridge unoccupied) and/or they think the individual arrested isn’t going to cooperative with the civil investigation team (the MAIB) and/or they think he’s a flight risk and won’t return to the UK if required to do so.

Some very unsurprising news coming out of Moscow -“Russian sources have told the Reuters news agency that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to accept the US's 30-day ceasefire proposal - which Ukraine agreed to yesterday.
A senior Russian official also said any agreement would have to take Russian battlefield advances into account and address Moscow's concerns.
"It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form," the source said. They spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation.”

The last report that I saw, some weeks ago now, was that support for the war was increasing among Russians. It surprised me. But apparently recruitment among Russians for the war is going more easily than last year, which indicates that the report could be correct (Im afraid I've forgotten which one it was, but did note it at the time)

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump agreed to finalize a comprehensive agreement on developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources as soon as possible, the Office of the President of Ukraine reported following negotiations in Saudi Arabia.

❗️U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that meetings between U.S. and Russian officials regarding the war in Ukraine are scheduled for [today].

Bilateral meetings between the US and Ukraine will continue, — Andriy Yermak.

There are various security guarantee options on the table today, but they will 100% prevent any future aggression, said the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, after talks with the American delegation.

🇺🇦🇵🇱 Ukrainian and Polish Foreign Ministers Sybiha and Sikorski have begun their meeting in Warsaw.

139 thousand sq. km (or 23%) of Ukraine's territory remains potentially mined, — Shmyhal

Russia will agree to a ceasefire in exchange for the partial lifting of sanctions on its energy sector, said MP Maksym Buzhansky.

Ukraine will decide how to manage its gas pipelines, said European Commission representative Anna-Kaisa Itkonen regarding the possible resumption of Russian gas transit.
Itkonen noted that the European Commission considers the concerns of Hungary and Slovakia, which rely on Russian energy, and remains in close contact with them and Ukraine.
[...] The agreement on Russian gas transit through Ukraine expired at the end of 2024 [...]

Russians hit the MJ Pinar dry cargo ship with a ballistic missile in Odesa port. Four people were killed, according to USPA.
All the injured were crew members. The ship was supposed to be heading from Odesa to Algeria.

Journalists have identified Russians involved in torturing Ukrainian prisoners at Kursk Pre-Trial Detention Center No. 1.
Marine Vladyslav Zadorin, who was released from captivity, named four prison guards responsible for the abuse:

• Vitaly Vinogradov—supervised prisoners, ordered beatings, starved them, personally assaulted them, and devised cruel punishments.
• Alexey Baranov—confiscated food, struck prisoners on the head with spoons.
• Dmitri Lozhkin—unleashed dogs on prisoners, organized "races" where those who failed to outrun the dogs were bitten. He also mocked captives by barking at them.
• Alexandr Baglay—the head of the detention center, under whose orders prisoners were tortured.

Macbeth Hits Different in Kyiv, A Nation at War
In a city where air raid sirens punctuate daily life and the weight of war is felt in every street, Macbeth has struck a nerve. With tickets sold out until May, betrayal, power, and paranoia are no longer just themes on stage but echoes of a country fighting for its survival.
Read full: https://united24media.com/culture/macbeth-hits-different-in-kyiv-a-nation-at-war-6587

Joint photo of the Ukrainian and American delegations following the meeting in Saudi Arabia.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

CIA chief Ratcliffe and Russia’s foreign intelligence director Sergei Naryshkin spoke by phone — the first such contact in years.
They “agreed on regular contact” between their agencies.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48739

“Pure betrayal and sabotage” — Hardline Russians reject ceasefire proposal.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48730

Russian propagandists and pro-war bloggers have reacted negatively and with irritation to the results of the talks in Jeddah.
Kyiv Post investigates WHY.
www.kyivpost.com/analysis/48744

Ukraine’s presidential aide Yermak did not call for the outright seizure of frozen Russian assets, but instead said that it should remain in Europe, where the profits from would go towards Ukraine’s recovery.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48709

In this exclusive interview, a sniper from Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, call sign “Lektor,” reveals the intense preparation, extreme battlefield conditions, and mental precision required for such a feat in the unforgiving Ukrainian warzone.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/48700

Bizarre world where even Iran condemns Trump’s treatment of Zelenskyy and refuses to deal with Trump.

en.tempo.co/amp/1985627/irans-president-declines-talks-with-trump-condemns-zelenskys-treatment