Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

Agreed thread guidance:
A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

BRICS has been expanding, it's worth remembering.

I wonder if the situation with the US is a bit like it was with Argentina; at one point one of the top ten economies in the world, then corruption and instability took over. It's never regained its preeminence and inflation is a huge problem; a greater and greater percentage of people live in poverty.

My guess is that the biggest problem long term with the US (for its own sake) is the dismantling of the checks and balances in the system currently happening, and the increasing toleration of corruption. Once the stable pillars of a society crack too far, regaining that stability is very hard.

Yes I thought that

https://news.online.ua/en/the-us-is-ending-support-for-ukrainian-f-16s-but-there-is-a-way-out-891472/

US President Donald Trump's team has ordered the termination of vital support for F-16 fighter jet jamming equipment that Ukraine has. What is important to understand is that this could deprive the Ukrainian Air Force of its most important air countermeasures.

It feels like he’s slowly suffocating them 😭

How can he think this is the right thing to do?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8-2025
Key Takeaways:

• The extent of the US suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine remains unclear.
• Western and Ukrainian officials indicated that the US suspension of intelligence sharing is generating battlefield effects.
• European states continue efforts to supplement intelligence sharing with Ukraine following the US suspension.
• Russian forces intensified their multi-directional campaign to eliminate the remaining Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on March 7 and 8.
• Russian forces appear to be destroying bridges in Kursk Oblast and along the international border, likely as part of efforts to prevent Ukrainian forces from withdrawing from Kursk Oblast into Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov, announced the intensified Russian effort in Kursk Oblast on March 8.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian rear and near rear areas on the night of March 7 and 8 and during the day on March 8, and Ukrainian forces notably did not shoot down any Russian ballistic missiles.
• The Kremlin continues to promote the false narrative that European Union (EU) member states and Ukraine seek to protract and escalate the war in Ukraine in order to distract from Russia's own long-term preparations for a war with the West.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 8 that Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Colonel Pavlo Palisa will participate in the US-Ukrainian talks on March 11 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

Anger towards Trump gets us no-where.

But i can't agree with anyone, whatever their perspective, who thinks Trump is doing this to get Europe to "step up" on Defence, he is in the pocket of Putin.

Let alone that Trump will again be a NATO fan, even Ben Wallace is hinting the US may pull out of NATO.

The halting of commercial satellite imagery, F16 support, stopping of munitions... his statements on Zelenskyy and Ukraine...

Hell why not launch some air strikes on Kiev? considering what he has done so far, not beyond the realms of impossibility.

US President Donald Trump's team has ordered the termination of vital support for F-16 fighter jet jamming equipment that Ukraine has.

When this this broke late’ish last night I did a bit of digging and have to say all reports on various outlets lead back to a single article..possibly a single journalist.

Now if the story is true IMO it’s reprehensible, so it would be nice to see confirmation.

This is weird. Russian state is giving, of all the things in the world they could give as gifts, MEAT GRINDERS to the bereaved mothers of dead soldiers. Surely, surely this is some kind of coded message from someone, somewhere, designed in hope that some of those mothers will tip over into rage and resistance? The gifts were 'the initiative of the women's wing of the party'. This is subversion, right?
The article even says that in Russian 'meat grinders' has the same macabre connotations that it does here.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/russian-officials-criticised-for-giving-meat-grinders-to-mothers-of-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine

If you do find more info on this could you update us please?

It does, at this point, seem believable.

Yes, I would read that as someone being subversive – perhaps as a commentary rather than towards an end.

It's surfacing what the Russian state really gave to those mothers.

No details given, but it sounds like this second ring is still at large and active.

Revealed: second Kremlin spy ring targeting Russian dissidents discovered in UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/08/revealed-second-kremlin-spy-ring-targeting-russian-dissidents-discovered-in-uk

They brought it on themselves’: a new low in US-Ukraine relations
Diplomats gasp as Keith Kellogg claims Zelenskyy to blame for soured relations with America
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/they-brought-it-on-themselves-a-new-low-in-us-ukraine-relations
But under a new Trump administration, those who supported the previous policy have quickly pivoted to back Trump as he seeks to end the war by putting pressure on Ukraine.
“Kellogg has some people around him who do know what they’re doing,” said [Fiona] Hill, who worked with him during the first Trump term. “He’s 80 years old. He fought in Vietnam. He knows his stuff. He’s no fan of Russia. He’s a total cold warrior. He’s trying to thread the needle there but he also works for the commander in chief, so he’s trying to interpret, in the best way that he can, what’s going on here? And he will not stray away from what Trump does or says, that’s why he is still there.”
Yet Kellogg was left off the list for a key summit between Ukrainian and US officials this week in Saudi Arabia in an attempt to repair the relationship. Waltz, Rubio, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are set to travel for talks with Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak and his team.

I saw that and couldn't believe it.

What a dreadful human being.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ US to stop participating in future military exercises in (kyivindependent.com/u-s-to-stop-participating-in-future-military-exercises-in-europe-swedish-media-reports/) Europe, Swedish media reports.
The United States has notified its allies that it does not plan to participate in military exercises held in Europe beyond those already scheduled in 2025, Swedish media outlet Expressen reported on March 7. [repeating this as it's very clear that the end of NATO is in sight, barring a miracle]

⚡️Russian troops reportedly attack (kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-use-gas-pipeline-to-advance-closer-to-ukrainian-positions-in-sudzha-deepstate-reports/) Sudzha in Kursk Oblast as Ukraine's logistical routes are cut off.

⚡️Ukraine releases (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-releases-video-of-russian-gas-pipeline-attack-in-kursk-oblast/) video of Russian attack via gas pipeline in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian troops had repelled an attack by Russian sabotage and assault groups that used a gas pipeline to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's General Staff reported, releasing footage of the engagement.

⚡️US vetoes (https://kyivindependent.com/us-vetos-proposal-to-establish-g7-task-force-on-russias-shadow-fleet-bloomberg-reports/) G7 proposal to establish task force on Russia's 'shadow fleet,' Bloomberg reports.
The United States vetoed a Group of Seven (G7) proposal to establish a joint task force that would tackle sanctions evasion related to Russia's 'shadow fleet,' Bloomberg reported on March 8.

⚡️ Zelensky names delegation for meeting with US (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-names-delegation-for-meeting-with-u-s-in-saudi-arabia/) in Saudi Arabia.

⚡️Australia considering (kyivindependent.com/australia-considering-joining-coalition-of-the-willing-for-ukraine-following-talks-with-starmer/) joining 'coalition of the willing' for Ukraine amid talks with Starmer.
Australia is considering joining the European-led coalition of the willing to support a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine, a statement issued by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Stamer's office read on March 8.

⚡️Large fire (kyivindependent.com/large-fire-affecting-critical-infrastructure-reported-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-following-russian-drone-attack/) affecting critical infrastructure reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following Russian drone attack.
A large fire erupted at a critical infrastructure facility in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following a Russian drone attack, regional Governor Ivan Federov said on March 8.
As a result of the strike, gas supplies have been limited in the region, Federov added.

⚡️Ukrainian front line 'would collapse' if Starlink (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-front-line-would-collapse-if-starlink-is-turned-off-musk-claims/) is turned off, Musk claims.
"My Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off," tech billionaire Elon Musk claimed on X.[well there's a threat to Ukraine - I hope they can arrange alternatives real fast]

⚡️Ukrainian partisans sabotage (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-railway-line-in-occupied-crimea-group-claims/) railway line in occupied Crimea, group claims.

⚡️France to provide (kyivindependent.com/france-to-provide-211-million-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-using-interest-from-frozen-russian-assets/) $211 million in military aid to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets.

⚡️Sweden to allocate (kyivindependent.com/sweden-to-allocate-2-2-million-in-support-of-ukrainian-women/) $2.2 million in support of Ukrainian women.

⚡️ Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast, (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-attacked-russian-oil-refining-complex-in-leningrad-region-military-intelligence-source-says/) military intelligence source says

⚡️Russia launched (kyivindependent.com/russia-launched-nearly-1-200-bombs-870-drones-over-80-missiles-against-ukraine-this-week-zelensky-says/) nearly 1,200 bombs, 870 drones, over 80 missiles against Ukraine this week, Zelensky says.
The weapons that Russia used against Ukraine this week contained more than 82,000 foreign components, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️Ukrainian drone reportedly attacks (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-reportedly-attacks-oil-depot-in-russias-chuvashia-for-first-time/) oil depot in Russia's Chuvashia for first time.
The Burevestnik oil depot lies over 900 kilometers (559 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Dagestan, Chechnya block (kyivindependent.com/dagestan-and-chechnya-block-telegram-messaging-app/) Telegram messaging app.
The Russian government has been escalating attempts to control online communications in recent months, blocking the messaging app Signal, reportedly planning to block WhatsApp, and curbing access to YouTube.

⚡️ Donetsk Oblast declares day of mourning after Russian attack (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-dobropillia-in-donetsk-oblast-kills-4-injures-18/) that killed 11 people.

The Kyiv International Cyber Resilience Forum — an annual flagship cybersecurity gathering in Ukraine and Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) — will take place on March 11-12, with the Kyiv Independent as a media partner.

‘Transformations after victory would be too late’ — An interview (kyivindependent.com/transformations-after-victory-would-be-too-late-an-interview-with-ukraines-social-policy-minister/) with Ukraine’s social policy minister
The Kyiv Independent recently spoke with her about how the war has affected her work, what she predicts will be the biggest challenges for the ministry after the war ends, and disability services in Ukraine today.

'Miniature universes:' The personal spaces (kyivindependent.com/beyond-the-battlefield-exploring-womens-personal-spaces-in-ukraines-war-photos/)of women at war (Photos)
Photographer Marysia Myanovska’s series “Zone of Seismic Activity” captures the role of women in Ukraine’s Armed Forces — where over 70,000 women now serve today — not only through the stark symbols of war, such as unexploded shells and combat uniforms, but also through intimate moments of daily life on the front lines. Her images challenge traditional narratives, revealing the unseen, the overlooked, and the undeniable presence of women in war.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-6-injure-39-over-past-day/) against Ukraine kill 6, injure 34 over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson- MAR 9, 2025
■ Most engagements & equipment losses of this month so far
■ Casualties slightly below average but up between days
■ Increased strikes on both sides, strike ratio slightly up

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the situation in the Kursk region is under the control of the command. Information about a massive breakthrough of the Ukrainian border by the Russians in the Sumy region is not true. In Sudzha, Russian special forces, who had previously moved along the gas pipeline, are suffering “very large” losses.
They noted that heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region. The situation remains difficult but is under the control of the Ukrainian command.

North Korea has announced the construction of a missile frigate and a nuclear-powered submarine, as reported by NBC News and the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Moon Geun-sik, a submarine expert and professor at Hanyang University in Seoul, believes that North Korea’s first nuclear-powered submarine could carry about ten missiles. He also noted that the term “strategic guided missiles” suggests these could be equipped with nuclear warheads.

France will provide Ukraine with a new €195 million military aid package, announced Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
The package includes 155-mm artillery shells, AASM aircraft bombs compatible with Mirage 2000 fighters, AMX-10RC light tanks, and VAB armored personnel carriers. The funding comes from interest generated by frozen Russian assets.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Kirishinefteorgsintez (KINEF) oil refinery in Russia’s Leningrad region on the night of March 8, said Andrey Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.
“KINEF is one of the largest oil refineries in Russia, with a processing capacity of about 20.1 million tons of oil per year, making it the second largest in the country after the Omsk Refinery. It specializes in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, and other petroleum products,” Kovalenko wrote.
The refinery is located 800 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Ukraine has increased its capacity to produce 400 Bren 2 rifles per day, the head of Colt CZ told the Kyiv Independent.
The rifle, produced under the local name “Sich,” is already in the hands of the Ukrainian military in the tens of thousands, with the same number expected to be assembled this year.

A combat sortie with flowers. The pilot of the Zhytomyr 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade congratulated all women on International Women’s Rights Day from the cockpit of a Su-27 aircraft! https://t.me/United24media/29751

Russians continue to equip fuel tanks at refineries with protective nets in the hope of protecting them from kamikaze drone strikes

The Ukrainian company Antonov Airlines transported the new French military satellite CSO-3, the third in the series, using its heavy transport aircraft An-124.

Ukrainian high jumper Oleh Doroshchuk made history by winning the first-ever gold for Ukraine in the men’s high jump at the European Indoor Championships!

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

The Ukrainian company Antonov Airlines transported the new French military satellite CSO-3, the third in the series, using its heavy transport aircraft An-124.

Not sure when that happened but in any event CSO-3 was launched (by a European launcher) successfully a few days back:

https://cnes.fr/en/press-releases/ariane-6-successfully-orbits-cso-3-military-satellite-first-commercial-mission

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky will not attend the negotiations with the US on Tuesday.
He has announced the composition of the Ukrainian delegation: Head of the Presidential Office Yermak, Foreign Minister Sybiha, Defense Minister Umerov, and Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Palisa.

‘God Loves a Trinity’ — Ukraine is preparing a third strike on the Crimean Bridge.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48540

Russia escalates its terror, striking Ukraine with drones almost every night. Homes, infrastructure, and lives were targeted by 119 deadly Russian drones last night.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48546

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

European nations are urgently seeking alternatives to Starlink for Ukraine, Financial Times reports.
Major satellite operators—including Luxembourg’s SES, Spain’s Hisdesat, Viasat, the owner of the UK’s Inmarsat, and France’s Eutelsat/OneWeb—are already in talks with the EU.
According to FT, replacing Starlink remains an extremely difficult challenge due to its superior signal transmission speed compared to competitors. Experts and Ukrainian military personnel report that connectivity issues persist, particularly near the front lines.
The European Parliament is pressuring the European Commission to expedite the implementation of the Govsatcom initiative, which aims to consolidate satellite capabilities. However, the project is expected to become operational only next year.

🇺🇸🇨🇩 The U.S. seeks to sign a mineral deal with another country, Financial Times reports.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) holds vast reserves of copper, cobalt, and uranium. Last month, the country approached the U.S. with a proposal to exchange its minerals for government support under President Félix Tshisekedi.
Currently, the DRC faces instability as rebels, allegedly backed by neighboring Rwanda, have seized mineral-rich territories. By securing a deal with the U.S., Congolese officials hope to strengthen the government and restore stability. Negotiations remain in the early stages, but Washington has shown interest.

As of January 1, 2025, over 70,000 women serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
More than 5,500 female service members are currently deployed directly on the front lines.

The head of Germany’s BND intelligence agency, Bruno Kahl, believes that Russia is likely to test the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 on collective security. He also suggested that if hostilities in Ukraine were to stop in the near future, this risk would increase.
Kahl noted that if the war ended before 2029-2030, Russia could pose a threat to Europe much sooner.
According to him, Russia hopes to see a future world order resembling the 1990s, with its “sphere of influence” expanding further westward. In its most desirable scenario, Moscow envisions the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe

🇫🇷"Because French intelligence is sovereign, we can replace US intelligence for Ukraine which has just stopped. We are currently helping Ukraine. It's more complicated for the UK being in an intelligence community with the US (5 Eyes)" - French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu

Drones attacked enterprises across multiple Russian regions, according to Russian Telegram channels citing local residents.
In the Lipetsk region, the alleged target was the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant—one of Russia’s largest steel enterprises. Residents of the city reported hearing at least seven explosions, followed by a fire near the plant.
Drones also attacked the Burevestnik oil refinery in Cheboksary for the first time, as officially confirmed by the regional governor.
Explosions were also reported near the Ryazan oil refinery, while a distillery in the Voronezh region was likely hit by UAVs.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 88 drones across eight regions.

WSJ (www.wsj.com/science/the-ancient-horsemen-who-created-the-modern-world-ba4b314d): DNA research suggests that half of the world’s population can trace their ancestry to the Yamnaya culture, which was present in what is now Ukraine 5,000 years ago.
For centuries, historians and linguists have searched for the cradle of the Indo-Europeans. A team led by David Reich, a geneticist from Harvard Medical School, has provided new insights into this mystery.
The village of Mykhailivka in Kherson region was previously identified by scientists as the genetic nucleus of the Yamnaya culture. From there, people spread across Eurasia, passing on their genes and way of life from Portugal to Mongolia.
Researchers note that this migration shaped a significant part of the world’s genetic and cultural heritage. The Yamnaya language, which was never written down but has been partially reconstructed by linguists, may have been the ancestor of 400 modern languages.

U.S. Forcing Mineral Deals on Ukraine Is a Violation of Article 3 of the Budapest Memorandum

I know Peter Zeihan isn't everybody's cup of tea so I wouldn't normally post links to his podcast episodes but this one really struck me because of the notable change in his tone. Normally he sounds so nonchalant, but not here.

pca.st/episode/edc8c6d7-82a2-4c6c-a871-581162a35d95

"This isn't MAGA policy. This isn't toddler syndrome.

This isn't, this isn't even incompetence. This is too much, too soon, too holistic. This isn't an abdication of American power.

This isn't mismanagement. This is a deliberate disassembly of the building blocks of American power and security and safety. This isn't anything that I would think that any American would ever want, much less orchestrate, which has pushed me into the realm of some conspiracy theories.

I think we now need to consider that the Russians really have penetrated the White House. And while I think it's a stretch to say this is like a Manchurian candidate sort of situation, there are too many things happening that seem too tailored to hobble American capacity long run. And everything that was on this list is something that the Russians have tried before. NATO is something they've been trying to destroy since the 50s. And now we have a possibility of the US just walking away. The military has been the bulwark of global security.

And so gutting it from the inside is something they would love to see. Our intel system has been the canary in the coal mine. And it appears that Trump is either not receiving or not reading the daily brief that the agency produces for him every day.

The food supply situation in the United States has long been the world's safest. And now we're not even testing to maintain it? The demographic of Russia is one of the main reasons why the Russians are facing such a bleak long-term future.

But if you interfere with the vaccine schedule in the United States, you can start increasing the death rate in Americans, not just under 20, but under five, and start to equalize that situation. This is some heavy stuff. And what we're going to be doing in the next few videos are exploring all of this from the Russian point of view: how they see the world, how they influence the world, and given the chance, how they would redirect American policy to serve their interests. I would love to say this is hypothetical, but I've already got a dozen examples in addition to the ones I just shared with you about how that is already happening. So buckle up, because for the first time since I started doing this 25 years ago, I'm actually worried for the United States.”

I fear that we're looking at a repeat of the Great Depression

Is Musk threatening to cut off starlink?

Yes, he’s been tweeting about how the Ukrainian lines would collapse if he were to cut it off.

As well as insulting a Polish government minister

Screenshot from x