Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

Agreed thread guidance:
A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

If Ukraine Doesn’t Want to Resolve the Conflict, We’re Pulling Out — Trump
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that American support for Ukraine will depend on its willingness to engage in peace negotiations.

The Telegraph: Trump is considering withdrawing American troops from Germany and potentially relocating them to Hungary.
Currently, around 35,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed in Germany, with a total of approximately 160,000 deployed overseas.
According to a source, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Europe for “seeking war” by refusing to increase defense spending. As a result, he is considering a realignment of U.S. forces in Europe, concentrating them in NATO countries that have met their defense spending targets relative to GDP.

❗️Russians Penetrate Ukrainian Defensive Line Near Sudzha, Logistics in Kursk Region Nearing Critical Condition
According to Ukrainska Pravda, Russian forces have breached Ukraine’s defensive line in the Sudzha area, posing a significant threat to logistics in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian units are trying to contain the advance to avoid the risk of full or partial encirclement.
It is likely that Russian troops are attempting to reach the key road used by Ukraine’s Defense Forces—Sumy-Yunakivka-Sudzha—this time from the south.
🪐 Subscribe to Live: Ukraine (t.me/liveukraine_media)

💥 Last night, Ukrainian pilots intercepted Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles using French Mirage-2000 fighter jets. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has released photos.

I don't know if it has already been mentioned that the US have now stopped sharing satellite images with Ukraine too.

Dubinsky.

Servant of the People scooped up all sorts from outside the mainstream and also outside politics to stand for the Rada. Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (Okean Elzy singer) in my opinion had a better understanding of outsiders coming in politics approaches than Zelensky, but eventually stepped down. However, cometh the hour etc., Zelensky has shown his worth.

Dubinsky is dodgy.

From your links:
The Telegraph: Trump is considering withdrawing American troops from Germany and potentially relocating them to Hungary.
Currently, around 35,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed in Germany, with a total of approximately 160,000 deployed overseas.
According to a source, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Europe for “seeking war” by refusing to increase defense spending. As a result, he is considering a realignment of U.S. forces in Europe, concentrating them in NATO countries that have met their defense spending targets relative to GDP

US troops in Hungary to do what?

According to link below, by 2024 Germany had already met the 2% spending target and indeed was spending more as a percentage of GDP than Hungary. Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are among those spending very significantly more.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/whos-at-2-percent-look-how-nato-allies-have-increased-their-defense-spending-since-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

If the suggested move of US troops were really about placing them in countries which meet their spending targets, they wouldn't be moved to Hungary. So either the article has wrongly made this connection, or this is more flimflam to cover the real reason for suggesting a move.

What we do know about Hungary is that Orban is proud that to be creating "illiberal Christian democracy" and that Hungary blocks assistance to Ukraine.

I know a move of US troops hasn't yet been ordered, and at the moment it's just more flying of kites and flooding the information zone, but once again it is talk pointing in the same direction of travel.

Interesting thread. Could we see Hungary expelled? bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3ljrir3ctek2u

Very interesting comments at the start of that thread:

It's clear to me that EU leaders & their most senior officials are clearly seized of this moment. They aren't under any illusions about the risks to Ukraine or European security. US alignment with Russia can do two things: result in panic or focus. Right now we're seeing focus 2/

Yes let's hope it continues that way!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7 as Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to overwhelm Ukraine's air defense umbrella by increasing the total number of Shahed and decoy drones in each strike.
• Russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in strike packages in Fall 2024, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations.
• Russia will likely take advantage of the suspension of US military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missiles.
• Russian forces are further intensifying offensive operations in select frontline areas likely in order to capitalize on any immediate and longer-term battlefield impacts of the cessation of US aid to Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced into northern Sumy Oblast for the first time since 2022 – when Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces from significant swathes of Ukrainian territory following the initial months of Russian advances. Russian forces likely intend to leverage limited advances into Sumy Oblast to completely expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast among other objectives.
• Russian forces also recently intensified offensive operations aimed at seizing Chasiv Yar and attacking Kostyantynivka – the southernmost settlement of Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian officials continue to explicitly reject making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals.
• Lithuania's intelligence services assessed that Russia may have the capabilities to conduct a limited campaign against one or several NATO countries within three to five years, an assessment that is consistent with ISW's assessments about Russian efforts to restructure and prepare its military and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long-term.
• The United Kingdom (UK) issued Ukraine's first tranche of revenue generated from frozen Russian assets.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Kremlin continues to leverage its "Time of Heroes" program to fill government positions with veterans of its war in Ukraine as part of a long-term effort to militarize Russian society and form a new cadre of loyal Russian officials.

I've lurked on every one of these threads from the first, and am very grateful for the thoughtful, well-informed pro-Ukraine discussion offered. Thank you to all the regular contributors, and @MissConductUS please do keep posting as you offer us very valuable insight.

What do we think of the media coverage labelling negotiations as 'peace talks'. Peace to me seems a positive word associated with non violence i.e. a desirable thing. However to my mind peace talks are between equal adversaries and there is ambiguity about who is agressor. These are forced talks and it would be better in my mind for the media such as the BBC to highlight this to readers possibly reframing articles as Ukraines partial surrender (based on political decisions elsewhere).

Peace to my mind is just too optimistic a term currently....

Also the 'peace' talks may not serve a just purpose given that they will be used by Russia to prevaricate in reaching agreement as they are really wishing to take advantage of the cessation of US assistance. Every time the Russians come to the table the demands will increase and sadly Ukraine will be in a weaker position especially if there are set backs on the battlefield.

⚡️ US to stop participating in future military exercises in Europe. The U.S. has told its allies that it does not plan to participate in military exercises held in Europe beyond those already scheduled in 2025, Swedish media outlet Expressen reported.

(from the Kyiv Independent bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3ljuoq6f77c2a )

So, when we finally get shot of the MAGA crowd, how does the next ‘normal’ President pull it back?

I don’t think they can, the trust will never be the same again.

A new world order is being built and whomever succeeds Trumpism will have to act within the parameters of whatever comes next. The liberal rules based order is dead.

They can't. It's over.

Anyone read the Jeremy Clarkson article in the times today. I am a technophobe and can't do links https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/jeremy-clarkson-wholl-take-on-jd-vance-guess-it-has-to-be-me-6g6d7f9r3

@MagicFox and @Igotjelly maybe I am being naive, but I am not sure I can believe that. Are we really saying that if someone like Anthony Blinken or Pete Buttigieg became a successful presidential candidate and eventual winner, we would remain sceptical and estranged?

The world will have fundamentally changed too much in those 4 years. New alliances will have been formed, international bodies like the UN and NATO will look very different to how they do now, if they still exist and even if a more “normal” candidate were to win (and I believe that there’s a very good chance that won’t happen) there will always be the underlying doubt.

We might go back to a cordial, even positive relationship with the US but I don’t think it’ll ever look the same as it did before.

Agreed

I heard someone say its like the tearing down of the Berlin wall, in significance, but obviously not positive reasons. Its so unsettling

I am sure Greenland and Canada feel the same for different reasons

I am very much hoping for a point when Americans themselves say “enough is enough”, although that in itself is going to be monumental.

I do think we need to be careful when we’re so downbeat. Remember we’re looking at this from a Western point of view, the international institutions as they are were set up to benefit us and give us influence. Other countries are far more sanguine about the potential for a multipolar world. The latest Behind the Lines podcast explores this somewhat and it’s quite interesting. What arises from the ashes of the past will be different but need not be negative if we don’t let it be.

There’s a lot to be said for the Global South getting a bigger seat at the table for instance.

Thank you. You are right, reframing the change isn’t always a bad thing.

Although mostly framed in terms of Trump’s euphemisms , I think there’s also an issue to do with Ukrainian morale - imagine being pounded on the frontline while hearing that your leaders are engaging in partial surrender talks. No doubt they’ll have an idea of what’s going down but semantics can be important.

its all alike and mirrors anyway, there is zero sign that Russia have any intention of giving up, so we’ll have to see where that leaves the man baby in terms of next steps. It is unthinkable that he would continue to withhold intel and support in that scenario.

Sounds ominous regarding possible encirclement in Kursk, hope they can get out safely.