Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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Short of his having a heart attack/stroke, Trump will win the primaries – that has been clear for a while now. He will not win the election if the Nikki Haley voters in Iowa are anything to go by.

Remember that these are Republicans committed enough to go out in a snowstorm to take part in the caucus.

About half, when asked, said that there is no way they would vote for Trump as President. Similarly, de Santis workers have said the reason they are for de Santis is that they are bitterly opposed to Trump. If that is how fervent Republicans, who voted for him last time and the time before, feel, how many Independent voters is he likely to pick up? And he needs the independent vote, because there are not enough Republicans to get him elected. MAGA is about 35% of the Republican party, tops, and the Republic party is less than half the voters in the United States: they are just louder and more social-media-oriented than ordinary people, so they get noticed more.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Zaluzhnyi confirms https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-confirms-ukraine-downed-russian-a-50-plane-and-il-22-command-aircraft/ Ukraine downed Russian A-50 plane and IL-22 command aircraft.

⚡️ Iran launches https://kyivindependent.com/iran-launches-missiles-at-syria-northern-iraq-to-destroy-alleged-israeli-spy-base/ missiles at Syria, northern Iraq.
The attack set off large explosions in the Iraqi city of Erbil, including at the U.S. Consulate, killing at least four civilians and injuring six, according to the Kurdistan Regional Security Council in Iraq.

⚡️ Zelensky meets Swiss https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-swiss-president-parliamentary-leaders-in-bern/ president, parliamentary leader

⚡️ UN asks for $4.2 billion in humanitarian aid https://kyivindependent.com/un-asks-donors-partners-for-4-2-billion-to-support-ukraine-ukrainian-refugees/ for Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees.

⚡️HUR: Russia mobilizing https://kyivindependent.com/hur-russia-mobilizing-around-30-000-soldiers-monthly/ around 30,000 soldiers monthly or around 1,000-1,100 recruits daily.

⚡️ Switzerland plans to allocate https://kyivindependent.com/switzerland-plans-to-allocate-over-1-7-billion-for-ukraines-reconstruction/ over $1.7 billion for Ukraine's recovery.

⚡️Military intelligence: North Korea supplying https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-supplying-122mm-152mm/ 122 mm, 152 mm shells to Russia.

‘It’s their turn now:’ Ukrainians call on government to demobilize exhausted soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/its-their-turn-now-ukrainians-call-on-government-to-demobilize-exhausted-soldiers-fighting-for-nearly-two-years/ fighting for nearly two years [This is grim. There was a lot of criticism of Russia not allowing its soldiers to rest, but it seems this has happened in Ukraine too, specially since they are less than 1/3 the size Russia]

⚡️Media: Over 20 Finnish companies managed or owned by Russians have been exporting high technology and other goods that can be used in the military industry to Russia, https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-receiving-military-linked-goods-from-finnish-companies/ The investigation revealed that at least nine customers of the Finnish companies have direct links to the Russian military sector and intelligence agencies such as Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).

⚡️ Five EU members sign letter to Brussels demanding customs duties on Ukrainian food products. https://kyivindependent.com/five-eu-members-sign-letter-demanding-brussels-impose-custom-duties-on-ukrainian-food-products/

⚡️Reuters: US Treasury deputy secretary to coordinate https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-treasury-deputy-secretary-to-coordinate-new-russia-sanctions-authority-in-europe-and-japan/ new Russia sanctions authority in Europe and Japan.

⚡️ Finnish defense minister wants complete ban https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-defense-minister-wants-complete-ban-on-russian-real-estate-purchases/ on Russian real estate transactions.

⚡️Military intelligence: Ukrainian partisans in occupied Melitopol blow up vehicle with Russian soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-ukrainian-partisans-in-occupied-melitopol-blow-up-vehicle-with-russian-soldiers/

⚡️ Canada shares draft plan https://kyivindependent.com/canada-shares-draft-plan-for-security-assurances-for-ukraine/ for security assurances for Ukraine.

Ukraine's air defenses notches a string of successes https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-shoots-down/ against Russian air power
Ukraine has destroyed at least seven Russian planes since the beginning of December.

⚡️Ukraine's prominent investigative journalist Nikolov says he faced threatening home visit https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-prominent-investigative-journalist-nikolov-says-he-faced-threatening-home-visit/
Yurii Nikolov, one of Ukraine's prominent investigative journalists who revealed procurement wrongdoing in the Defense Ministry under its previous leadership, said on Jan. 15 that he received a visit from unidentified people threatening him.

Talking business in Ukraine: Conversation with Monobank https://kyivindependent.com/monobank-interview/ country’s largest online bank

Opinion: The secret scars of Ukraine's mental health https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-the-unseen-scars-of-ukraines-mental-health-crisis/ crisis
"As Ukraine endures the ravages of Russia's full-scale invasion, the impact extends far beyond the physical destruction of its cities and the displacement of its people," writes journalist David Kirichenko. "A silent but equally devastating crisis is unfolding: the severe deterioration of the mental health of the Ukrainian population in wartime."

⚡️ AP: Hamas uses arms https://kyivindependent.com/ap-hamas-uses-arms-made-in-russia-iran-china-north-korea/ made in Russia, Iran, China, North Korea.

Numbers of dead and of hardware losses are back up to huge levels.
Plus the two planes!

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 16, 2024
■ Many engagements, settlements under fire below average
■ Strikes well above average; 2nd most 🇺🇦 air strikes this year so far
■ Biggest casualties & landbased equipment losses this year so far
■ Plane losses from Jan 14

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Kuleba warned that "time is running out" for Congress to pass a new deal on funding military aid to Ukraine, adding that even if Ukrainians run out of weapons, we will "fight with shovels."

A missile strike hit a US merchant ship off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea, Reuters reports citing the British Navy.

President Andrzej Duda of Poland, following a meeting with Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the presidential palace, shared with journalists that the war in Ukraine is expected to be a central focus during the World Economic Forum in Davos, according to the Office of the President of Poland.

🇪🇪 Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas believes that Europe has three to five years to prepare for a possible military threat from Russia on NATO's eastern flank

Polish factories are ramping up weapon production as the country gears up for war, reports Rzeczpospolita. Key highlights from the publication include:
▫️ The Nitro-Chem plant in Bydgoszcz has maximized TNT production to meet heightened demand.
▫️ The Lucznik plant in Radom aims to produce 100,000 rifles annually.
▫️ The Huta Stalowa Wola Howitzer and APC plant has received instructions to double its supply within two years.

🇱🇻Speaker of the Saeima of Latvia Daiga Mieriņa has arrived in Ukraine.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the Davos Economic Forum.

🌾 Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary demand from the European Commission to return the duty on Ukrainian grain due to allegedly unfair competition.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that artificial intelligence (AI) will impact 60% of jobs in developed countries, exacerbating overall inequality.

Reparations bonds could potentially help Ukraine access $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, as reported by Reuters. Issuing bonds is also seen as a viable means to address Ukraine's budget deficit.
The proposed mechanism involves selling reparation bonds to Ukraine's allies, with interest accrued on the frozen assets being utilized to settle both the bond principal and coupons.
However, it's essential to note that interest on the bonds will only materialize if the Russian Federation agrees to pay reparations to Ukraine. Importantly, bondholders will not have contractual rights to the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank.

Ukrainian tennis player Dayana Yastremska defeated current Wimbledon winner Marketa Vondroushova in the first round of the Australian Open-2024 — 6:1, 6:2.
After the match, Dayana wrote on the camera: "Glory to Ukraine."

Media outlets claim this is Russian Il-22. The plane seems to be significantly damaged. [there have been claims this was from an earlier damaged plane but those are not confirmed]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

[Kuleba] acknowledged that the Russian military has "learned its lessons" and is now "much better adapted to this war," but predicted "more defeats" for Russia this year.

Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi said that the occupiers produce about 115-130 strategic missiles per month and about the same number of operational and tactical missiles (such as Kh-31, Kh-59)

Switzerland is to host a global "peace summit" at the level of state leaders, and preparations will begin tomorrow
This agreement was announced by the President of Ukraine at a joint press conference with Swiss President Viola Amherd.
Zalensky noted that Ukraine would like to see the countries of the Global South and China, among others, at the summit. It is not yet known when the summit will take place.

🇫🇮 The Finnish Prosecutor's Office has indicted https://yle.fi/a/74-20069045 Gabriel Temin (right), CEO of Finnish companies Luminor and Siberica, for violating sanctions legislation by exporting 3,500 drones and dual-use goods to Russia

On the night of January 16, 12 drones attacked the Voronezh and Belgorod regions of the Russian Federation - the aggressor state's Defense Ministry reports the destruction of five and the interception of seven UAVs.

Serbian actor Miloš Biković, who supports Russia, will star in the HBO series The White Lotus
He has publicly supported Russia's occupation of Crimea.

Media outlets claim this is Russian Il-22. The plane seems to be significantly damaged. [there have been claims this was from an earlier damaged plane but those are not confirmed]

It's the back end of a very badly damaged Il-22...I'm not up enough on the sub-types these days to get the exact variant.

The Russians are now claiming that this and the A-50 that were downed were friendly fire incidents. That seems unlikely to me, even for the Russians.

That's reassuring

Yep, agreed, especially given where you'd expect the Il-22 and A-20 to sit in terms of the command and control chain...

That should of course be A-50...fat fingers...

From a Ukraine side war planning perspective, it is prudent to assume the USA might not be there so much, or at all, at some point.

Understood. I wonder if the Ukrainians were able to reposition a Patriot battery without the Russians noticing.

No matter how they did it, two rare, high-value aircraft are out of the fight. The specialist crew of the A-50 won't be easy to replace either. Any similar aircraft will now have to operate at an even greater distance if they're willing to risk them at all.

I was surprised to learn that one of their primary missions was to act as a relay for radio transmissions by ground forces. That's not going to work well if they're 50-100 miles further from the front.

Interested to see how the latest Tory rebellion plays out over the Rwanda bill!

I was surprised to learn that one of their primary missions was to act as a relay for radio transmissions by ground forces. That's not going to work well if they're 50-100 miles further from the front.

Obviously don't know the details but a relay at altitude, even if set back from the front line, might solve some line of sight issues.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to demonstrate that Russia is not interested in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith and that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine – which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender – remain unchanged.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin notably amplified a longstanding Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated the importance of defeating Russia in Ukraine at the Davos World Economic Forum on January 16.
• Russian tactical aviation operations are reportedly decreasing near the Sea of Azov, and Russian aviation capabilities may be degraded after Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and caused severe damage to a Russian Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
• At least two state-owned Chinese banks reportedly ordered reviews of their business with Russian clients and will sever ties with sanctioned Russian entities and entities with ties to the Russian defense industry.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui for North Korea’s support for Russia in the war during Choe’s official state visit to Moscow on January 16.
• The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on its second reading to digitalize Ukrainian military records on January 16.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut as positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
• Russian State Duma deputies from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) proposed a bill on January 16 that would create a legal status for volunteers of the Russian war in Ukraine that would grant them compensation in case of injury or death.
• Russian occupation officials from occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk oblasts attended a meeting of Russian municipal representatives in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 16.

Yesterday's UK Int Update

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67990948

I don't want to be alarmist but between Ukraine, Taiwan and NK it's getting rather worrying.

And Israel, and Iran attacking Iraq/the US embassy there and Pakistan.

It’s worth listening to the latest This is Not a Drill podcast about Taiwan for a less alarmist view. https://open.spotify.com/episode/1dS0aL3rDySiQDiQBBIRY8?si=dbT4Ojq1TbmV82-xFRBvXw

Ill do that.

For those who don't have time for a full podcast on the issue (apologies it's a little off topic for the thread but still important) essentially the sense seems that a full military takeover of Taiwan by China is still really unlikely. The Chinese aren't stupid and recognise that the geography itself makes a military assault difficult but also that occupation would be extremely difficult if they were able to take the island given the population and strong institutions etc. (essentially the Taiwanese won't just roll over and accept occupation).

What they think is more likely is a blockade of Taiwan, whereby China essentially says "Taiwan is in our customs area and we'll have a say on who goes in and out".

The podcast (am half way through) made a dry note that China would have got a lot further with persuading the Taiwanese people voluntarily if they'd been nicer to Japan and Hong Kong.

I think that's a key point. People scoff at the idea of soft power but actually in situations like this it can be incredibly powerful.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The European Parliament will vote later this week on a resolution that calls for stripping Hungary of its voting rights at the European Council, Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Petri Sarvamaa said on Jan. 16. kyivindependent.com/european-parliament-to-vote-on-stripping-hungary-of-eu-voting-rights/

⚡️ Fico says Slovakia backs Hungary, will fight any attempt to restrict voting rights.

The EU will approve a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine 'with or without' Hungary's approval, EU President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos on Jan. 16. kyivindependent.com/eu-chief-says-aid-package-for-ukraine-will-be-approved-without-hungarys-approval/

⚡️ Pentagon: Next Ramstein-format summit https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-next-ramstein-format-summit-to-be-held-on-jan-23/ to be held on Jan. 23.

⚡️ Zelensky met with top executives of the world's leading financial funds at the sidelines of the Davos forum on Jan. 16, seeking to boost investment in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-worlds-finance-leaders-in-davos/

⚡️Macron: France to deliver https://kyivindependent.com/macron-france-to-deliver-40-scalp-missiles-hundreds-of-bombs-to-ukraine/ 40 SCALP missiles, 'hundreds of bombs' to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Jan 16. in a phone call with U.S. President Joe Biden said that Berlin will unilaterally provide Ukraine with over seven billion euro in security assistance and humanitarian support in 2024. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-security-assistance-worth-over-7-billion-euro-draws-criticism/

A mandatory evacuation order for families with children has been expanded to 26 more villages near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Governor Oleh Syniehubov announced on Jan. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/kharkiv-oblast-mandatory-evacuation/

⚡️German opposition to bring https://kyivindependent.com/german-opposition-to-bring-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine-up-for-vote-in-bundestag/ Taurus missiles to Ukraine up for vote in Bundestag.

F-16s for Ukraine: When will they arrive and what can they do? https://kyivindependent.com/f-16s-for-ukraine-when-will-they-arrive-and-what-can-they-do/

⚡️Financial Times: EU states face Brussels' audit of their arms supplies to Ukraine in response to claims that some countries have failed to provide as much as they could. https://kyivindependent.com/financial-times-eu-states-face-brussels-audit-of-their-arms-supplies-to-ukraine/

⚡️Polish truckers agree with government to suspend blockade until March 1 https://kyivindependent.com/polish-truckers-reach-deal-with-government/ [excellent, until the 1st March]

French President Emmanuel Macron on Jan. 16 said he will sign a bilateral military agreement next month while in Kyiv, Politico reported. https://kyivindependent.com/macron-to-sign-security-agreement-in-kyiv/

⚡️Latvian-led coalition to arm https://kyivindependent.com/latvian-led-coalition-to-arm-ukraine-with-thousands-of-drones/ Ukraine with 'thousands' of drones.

Denmark and the Netherlands are preparing to jointly deliver the first two of 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, local media reported on Jan. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-and-the-netherlands-prepare-tank-deliveries-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Zelensky meets presidents https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-singapores-rwandan-presidents-for-the-first-time/ of Singapore, Rwanda for the first time

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: Government allocates https://kyivindependent.com/shmyhal-government-allocates-almost-21-million-in-reserve-funds-for-urgent-military-needs/ almost $21 million in reserve funds for 'urgent' military needs. The funds will go towards purchasing items such as ammunition, thermal imagery devices, and drones.

Railway tracks in Russia's Saratov, Yaroslavl, and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts have been targeted in sabotage attacks, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Jan. 17. https://kyivindependent.com/hur-sabotage-western-russia/

Police raid homes https://kyivindependent.com/occrp-police-raid-homes-of-independent-journalists-in-kyrgyzstan/ of independent journalists in Kyrgyzstan.

⚡️ Media: Belarus prepares https://kyivindependent.com/ap-belarus-prepares-new-military-doctrine-allowing-use-of-nuclear-weapons/ new military doctrine allowing use of nuclear weapons.

Investigative Stories From Ukraine: How men fake divorces, custody lawsuits to avoid draft https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-how-men-fake-divorces-custody-lawsuits-to-avoid-draft/
The publication analyzed 30,000 children guardianship disputes in the Ukrainian court registry between 2021 and 2023 and found a trend: After the start of the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, men have increasingly started initiating and winning such cases over their wives.

⚡️ Ukraine's parliament votes for law https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-votes-for-law-to-create-electronic-registry-for-conscription/ to create electronic conscription registry.

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko attacks religious organizations, broadens grounds for their banning https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenko-attacks-religious-organizations-broadens-grounds-for-their-banning/
Meanwhile, Lukashenko has signed a bill granting immunity for the president post-departure, shielding them from prosecution for actions during their tenure.
The former president cannot be detained, subjected to investigation, or deprived of personal freedom. The legal immunity also covers all property, real estate, and archives in possession of the former official and the president’s immediate family.

⚡️ Israel participates https://kyivindependent.com/israel-participates-in-peace-formula-discussions-for-first-time/ in Ukraine's peace formula discussions for first time.

⚡️Minister: Bucharest meets https://kyivindependent.com/minister-romanian-government-reaches-agreement-with-protesting-farmers-on-some-demands/ some of protesting farmers’ demands.

⚡️ Estonia to stop https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-to-stop-funding-russian-language-education/ Russian-language education.

⚡️ Estonia arrests professor https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-arrests-professor-on-suspicion-of-spying-for-russia/ on suspicion of spying for Russia.

Second phase of Ukraine’s land reform underway, critics say law will hurt small farmers https://kyivindependent.com/land-reform-second-stage-of-ukraines-land-reform-underway-sparking-concerns-among-small-scale-farmers/

The Ukrainian government changed the rules regarding the conscription of workers from the military industry, allowing companies producing military equipment to staff without restriction, the Economy Ministry wrote on Jan. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-amends-conscription-rules-for-workers-from-military-industry/

⚡️Update: 17 injured in Russian missile strike on Kharkiv.

⚡️Tinder to exit https://kyivindependent.com/tinder-to-exit-belarusian-market-after-valentines-day/ Belarusian market after Valentine's day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 17, 2024
■ Most combat engagements so far this year but strikes on both sides below 7-day average
■ Casualties & equipment losses below average; include 3 MLRS
■ KIU: +39 officers; 3.2 per day in last four weeks

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Vadym Skibitsky from the The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. “Currently, the main efforts of the Russian Federation are focused on the destruction of our infrastructure facilities. These are mainly the facilities of our defense industry, headquarters, management systems and separate units deployed on the front line,” he stated in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

Zelenskyy will receive a message from Biden at the Davos forum calling on Ukraine to change strategy from offense to defense in the war against Russia, — Bloomberg.
Bloomberg contended that "Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed" and this "frustrating Washington, which had urged Kyiv to adopt different tactics."
The article noted that the Russian occupiers "dug in too well," and "Ukrainians lost too many soldiers and used up too much ammo, especially for air defenses”. Offense is always harder than defense, but for Ukraine it may now be out of the question.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with His Majesty King Philippe I of Belgium and Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo

Poland has recently strengthened its mobilization law.
Under the new legislation, individuals avoiding the draft during times of war or mobilization will now face a minimum sentence of 5 years in prison. The revised law requires mobilized individuals to respond promptly, appearing within six hours of receiving the summons marked 'immediately.'
Poland is set to initiate military conscription, targeting 230,000 people. Eligibility for the draft now extends to men born in 2005.

Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Andriy Kostin, has announced that the creation of a special tribunal to address the crime of Russian aggression is gaining global support.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The EU Diplomatic Service is auditing the amount of arms that member states have sent to Ukraine. This audit was requested by Olaf Scholz after complaints that some states could have provided more weapons than they did.
The review comes at a time when Brussels and Washington are trying to find a political consensus that would allow them to sign financial aid packages for Kyiv totaling $110 billion, the Financial Times adds https://www.ft.com/content/af95ad49-2529-48d4-9a2b-8e10dbc28eeb

🇺🇸 During his visit to Davos, Zelensky met with US Secretary of State Blinken and Biden's National Security Advisor Sullivan

🇭🇺 Orban decides https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-help-ukraine-should-not-hurt-eus-budget-2024-01-16/ that the €50 billion plan for Ukraine "violates EU sovereignty"

MEPs call for an investigation into the legality of the European Commission's decision to unfreeze €10 billion for Hungary in December 2023. They believe that the funds were unfrozen in order to make concessions to Hungary, and not because of genuine improvements in the country's judicial system.

🇵🇱 Polish President Andrzej Duda believes that Ukraine's accession to NATO is impossible before the end of the war with Russia, but believes that the procedure could be started even at this stage.

Putin says many Russians who emigrated are now returning home because they just can’t stand living in countries with unisex toilets

Putin says many Russians who emigrated are now returning home because they just can’t stand living in countries with unisex toilets

At least they have toilets.....