Ukraine Invasion: Part 46

[MagicFox]

With thanks to all keeping these threads going 🇺🇦

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine and the UK have signed a security agreement that will be valid until joining NATO. This agreement became the first in the field of security agreements to implement the agreements agreed upon during the Vilnius NATO summit between Ukraine, the members of the Group of Seven and the states that joined them.

US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker is in Kyiv.

Fears did not come true. Slovakia will continue its military support to Ukraine during Fico's premiership, Ukrainian Ambassador Myroslav Kastran commented to Glavkom. Minister Blanar confirmed further assistance to Ukraine and noted that the issuance of export licenses will be accelerated as much as possible.

Increased Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian airfields indicate that Moscow considers the appearance of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine dangerous, said the head of Estonian intelligence Ants Kiviselg

Romania became the largest alternative route for Ukrainian grain exports in 2023 — Reuters.
According to the port's administration, 36 million metric tons of grain were shipped there last year, which is 50% more than in the prior year. Ukrainian grain accounted for about 40% of the total, or 14 million tons, compared to 13 million tons at the end of November and 8.6 million tons in 2022.

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informed about what kind of weapons Putin receives from Kim Jong Un: artillery shells, combat kits, shells for multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), mines — all of which have been confirmed. Regarding ballistics, we continue to collect data and conduct additional exploration to analyze the situation", stated Andriy Yusov, an intelligence representative.
Earlier, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky reported that there are 462,000 Russian soldiers and 35,000 Russian guards (@lovelysoap a more precise breakdown, although I'm not sure if that means actual -soldiers- or if it means 'all military personnel including admin staff') in Ukraine. Yusov clarified that this number includes groups of the so-called Storm-Z.

Every year, Lithuania commemorates January 13 as the Day of the Defenders of Freedom, paying tribute to the unarmed citizens who stood against Soviet soldiers in Vilnius, fighting for the country's independence from Soviet occupation.

Live: Ukraine Highlights

🇨🇭Zelensky's visit to Davos announced
The organizers of the World Economic Forum in Davos have announced that President Volodymyr Zelensky will personally attend one of the events on January 16.
It is noted that Zelensky will personally deliver a special speech at the panel "Achieving Security and Cooperation in a Fragmented World."

🇺🇸 The United States has already held two rounds of talks with Ukraine on security commitments, said US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, commenting on the signing of such a document with Britain

Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa has collected 120 signatures on a petition to deprive Hungary of its right to vote in the EU Council [I wonder how many he needs]

Air defense forces destroyed 8 cruise missiles [last night]
In total, the Russians fired at Ukraine:
▪️7 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles;
▪️3 Shahed drones;
▪️6 Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" aerial ballistic missiles
▪️12 cruise missiles Kh-101/Kh-555/X-55;
▪️6 cruise missiles Kh-22;
▪️2 guided aircraft missiles Kh-31P;
▪️4 Kh-59 guided aircraft missiles.

More than 20 missiles that were not included in the statistics of downed missiles did not reach their targets due to active countermeasures by electronic warfare.

PepsiCo bans mentions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the war in its advertising
This was reported https://b4ukraine.org/whats-new/pepsi-restricts-mentions-of-war by B4Ukraine, an international organization that monitors companies that continue to do business in Russia. The team found out that PepsiCo was looking for a new PR agency and had set the following requirements for the contract.
Analysts say that the possible reason for this decision is that the company is increasing its profits in Russia - last year it reached $525 million. The company paid $115 million in taxes to Russia.

I'm not happy with them either, @DancesWithDucks, but at least half of the blame is on Biden. He's afraid that any compromise on immigration policy will offend the far left of his party and put him further down in the polls against the Republicans in the presidential race. It's selfish of him to even be seeking reelection at his age and when his chances of wining are so poor.

@DancesWithDucks

Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa has collected 120 signatures on a petition to deprive Hungary of its right to vote in the EU Council [I wonder how many he needs]

assuming the signatories are MEPs there are a total of 705 😕

yes, they are MEPs ... urg :( nowhere near enough

There's some more news about Russia's egg crisis.

https://www.poultryworld.net/poultry/layers/perfect-storm-on-russias-egg-market-authorities-to-step-in/

Apparently they bought almost twenty tons of eggs from Turkey, but most unfortunately about one-fifth of the ones that were sent were infected with bird flu; the sort that kills people. Salmonella and botulism were also found, and they're not terribly good for people either.

Even more unfortunately, a lot of these eggs had been sold before testing revealed this.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-egg-crisis-nato-turkey-export-backfires-h5n1-bird-flu-1860155

The authorities are of course denying that there is any problem, whist busily recalling any they can manage to.

!! That's not great news for egg-eaters in Turkey, either! Unless the eggs sent to Russia had already been condemned in Turkey.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

• A recent video appeal by a Serbian mercenary addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin has unleashed discussions about an ongoing “clan war” within the Kremlin and the Russian information space against the backdrop of the Russian presidential campaign.
• In-fighting and factional dynamics within the Kremlin are not new phenomena and do not indicate the imminent collapse of Putin’s regime, particularly because power verticals are the foundation of Putin's regime.
• Russian forces launched a medium-sized drone, missile, and air attack against Ukraine on the night of January 12-13 using a strike package similar to recent Russian strike packages.
• Russian forces are reportedly increasingly using chemical weapons in Ukraine in continued apparent violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.
• A fire destroyed a large warehouse in St. Petersburg belonging to Russia’s largest online retailer Wildberries on January 12.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire front line.
• Russian forces may be forming air assault brigades within combined arms ground formations as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.
• Russian officials continue to fund social projects in occupied Ukraine in an effort to integrate these territories further into Russia and create the veneer of an active civil society in occupied areas.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Taiwan: The incumbent Democratic Progressive Party won a third consecutive election on Jan. 13, defeating the more Beijing-friendly Kuomintang party and likely continuing the trend of opposition to China. https://kyivindependent.com/taiwans-ruling-party-reelected-to-3rd-term/

⚡️US congress reaches https://kyivindependent.com/us-congress-reaches-funding-consensus/ funding consensus.
US lawmakers have reached a deal on a two-tranche funding package to keep the federal government funded into March, CNN reported on Jan. 13.
The budget includes $1.59 trillion for fiscal year 2024, with $886 billion for defense spending. Specific allocations for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have not yet been disclosed.

⚡️ Denmark announces https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-announces-almost-22-million-in-new-funding-for-mykolaivs-reconstruction/ almost $22 million in new funding for Mykolaiv's reconstruction.

⚡️ISW: Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities growing https://kyivindependent.com/isw-ukraines-electronic-warfare-capabilities-growing-taking-down-russian-missiles/ taking down Russian missiles.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine’s Air Force strikes 11 Russian troops' clusters https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraines-air-force-strikes-11-russian-troops-clusters/

⚡️North Korean foreign minister to visit Russia https://kyivindependent.com/north-korean-foreign-minister-to-visit-russia/

⚡️Zelensky, French foreign minister discuss https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-discusses-defense-needs-with-frances-newly-appointed-french-foreign-minister/ joint drone production.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi spends several days https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhny-shaptala-meet-with-frontline-troops-from-tavria-odesa-groups-and-naval-command/ with Tavria, Odesa groups near front line.
Ukraine's top commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi spent several days with troops near the front lines in the south and east, discussing future operations in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk oblasts.

⚡️ Massive fire sweeps https://kyivindependent.com/massive-fire-sweeps-through-st-petersburg-warehouse/ through St. Petersburg warehouse.
A huge fire spread through a warehouse in St. Petersburg on Jan. 13 belonging to one of Russia's biggest online stores, Wildberries, affecting at least 70,000 square meters of the property, Russian media reported.

⚡️Border guards: Romanian farmers block movement (https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-service/) of trucks on Ukrainian border. https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-service/

⚡️Border guards: Romanian farmers stop blockade (https://kyivindependent.com/border-guards-romanian-farmers-no-longer-blocking-movement-of-trucks-on-ukrainian-border/) of trucks on Ukrainian border.

Houthi rebels mistakenly targeted a tanker from an undisclosed country on Jan. 12 that was carrying Russian oil through the Gulf of Aden, Reuters reported, citing the U.K.-based maritime security company Ambrey. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-houthis-accidentally-strike-cargo-ship-carrying-russian-oil/

How do Western parts end up in Russian missiles s
Nearly three-quarters of the roughly 2,500 foreign components found in Russian weaponry and analyzed by Ukrainian authorities were made by U.S. producers, a database by the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK) reveals.
How did they end up there?
“Russia built some very sophisticated chains of supply with the involvement of their intelligence operatives to ensure deliveries of spare parts, and this is why we permanently emphasize the need to cut off Russia from access to these spare parts," says Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. "But it's not that easy because in most of the cases, they simply find the way to buy something commercially available on well-known marketplaces and deliver them to Russia.”

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 14, 2024
■ Fewer combat engagements, settlements under artillery fire slightly above 7-day average
■ Strikes on both sides well above average,missile attacks
■ Casualties above average & massive landbased equipment losses

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

In Davos, the fourth meeting on the Ukrainian Peace Formula involves 81 countries and international organizations, an increase from the previous 66 in Malta. Participants include 39 from Europe, 18 from Asia, 12 from Africa, 6 from South America, 3 from North America, and 2 from Oceania.
The growing participation reflects a joint effort for a peace plan. Switzerland's swift involvement is appreciated.

Sweden is actively constructing submarines to patrol the Baltic Sea, fortifying NATO's eastern borders against potential Russian naval operations, as reported by Politico.
The Blekinge and Skane submarines, both 66-meter A26 diesel-electric vessels, are scheduled to be launched in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Notably, these will be Sweden's first submarines built since the mid-1990s. The construction is underway at the Karlskrona shipyard by Kockums, a division of the military equipment manufacturer Saab.

The Canadian company Roshel Defense reported that it currently has more than 100 Senator armored vehicles of various modifications ready for immediate delivery to Ukraine.

Sweden to increase production of 155-mm ammunition for Ukraine, an agreement between the Defense Materiel Administration (FMV) and ammunition manufacturer Nammo.

The military-industrial complex of Bulgaria operates around the clock, with a substantial portion of its production being supplied to Ukraine, as reported by Voice of America.

Almost 4.3 million Ukrainians have temporary asylum in the EU due to Russian aggression — Eurostat.
The largest number of Ukrainians were sheltered by Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic.

European farmers called on Brussels to limit the import of Ukrainian products
Six European agricultural organizations have published a joint declaration calling for restrictions on the import of Ukrainian products into the EU.
In the spring of 2022, the European Union temporarily suspended customs duties on imports from Ukraine, now farmers believe that this threatens their survival.

In Russian colonies, the heating is turned off so that prisoners are more willing to go to fight, — Bild

Russian media report a mass blackout in Rostov-on-Don
Dozens of houses were left without electricity, water and heating.
There is also no electricity in Bataysk.

This Leopard 2A6 that survived an ATGM hit

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇨🇭The fourth meeting of national security advisors on the Ukrainian peace formula is taking place in Davos, Switzerland.
At this meeting, five points of the Ukrainian peace formula are being discussed: withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of justice, environmental safety, prevention of escalation and recurrence of war, and confirmation of the end of the war.

🇵🇱 The Prime Minister of Poland said that he would not allow representatives of his government to build their position on anti-Ukrainian sentiments, as there can be no doubt about the need to support Ukraine during the war.

Since the beginning of the large-scale war, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have recorded 626 cases of Russian use of ammunition with toxic chemicals, 51 of which occurred in January
The dynamics of the use of such munitions is growing. Up to 10 cases are recorded daily. Mostly, the Russian army uses K-51 and RGM grenades dropped from copters. Improvised explosives with irritants and chemical shells are also used.

Dnipro commemorates the victims of a Russian missile strike that killed 46 people on January 14, 2023

Russians experience deterioration of healthcare system due to war —British intelligence
Russian media report that it is difficult for the population to access hospital services across the country. There are also reports of a shortage of medicines, including broad-spectrum antibiotics.
The war is likely to contribute significantly to this situation as hospitals treat wounded soldiers. The Russian government has also been forced to downsize civilian medical facilities across the country due to a shortage of medical staff and financial difficulties.

Yampil, a 12-year-old Asiatic black bear who was injured after a Russian shelling in the Donetsk region and rescued by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has now been permanently rehomed to the Five Sisters Zoo in Scotland

I would guess the Houthi attacks on shipping will have an impact on China and other Asian countries exporting goods to Europe.

But what I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is the impact this might have on South Africa. Shipping is being re-routed via the Cape of Good Hope, so South Africa may well see a lift in its economy and strategic importance. Before the construction of the Suez Canal, Cape Town was known as the "Tavern of the Seas" because so much shipping stopped off there.

I have no idea what this will mean politically and globally!

Rumours another Russian A50 and II22-M down. Dmitri toned down the 'most likely' in another post but he's usually accurate when he claims something has happened.

The A50s are irreplaceable for monitoring what's going on around.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)
AT wartranslated

A few hours ago, someone apparently attacked two Russian aircraft over the Azov Sea: A-50 early warning and control and Il22-M command and control aircraft. The former is claimed to now be scuba diving, while the latter, well... the following audio recording emerged which apparently demonstrates the Il22-M requesting urgent landing in Anapa, calling for ambulance and fire crews. Numbers in the recording are quite challenging to decipher. Information in Russian channels is scarce. But the events have most likely taken place and Russia lost at least one very expensive and valuable flying asset. By the way, yesterday, Russian channels claimed destruction of a Patriot AA system in Western Ukraine. But didn't provide any evidence whatsoever. Eternal fishing!

I wonder what got them?

You know, it's all gone very quiet about those two F-16s that were supposed to be delivered at the end of December.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces likely continue to experiment and adapt their missile and drone strike packages against Ukraine in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
• Representatives from 83 countries met to discuss the implementation of Ukraine’s Peace Formula on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 14.
• The Kremlin continues to undertake measures to undermine the Republic of Tatarstan’s autonomy within the Russian Federation and cultural heritage despite the republic’s sacrifices on behalf of the Russian war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Investigative Committee will officially open a case into the fire that destroyed a large Wildberries warehouse in St. Petersburg.
• Positional engagements continued along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Moscow-based international exhibition-forum “Russia” opened the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) “Army of Children” exhibit on January 14 to educate children about the military and careers in the Russian Armed Forces.
• Swedish Defense Materiel Administration announced on January 14 that it had signed an agreement with Nordic Ammunition Company (Nammo) to increase the production and deliveries of 155mm artillery ammunition to support Ukraine’s needs.
• The Kremlin is funding select non-profit organizations operating in occupied areas that propagate Kremlin social narratives.

Were they the Danish ones? If so they were delayed by 'several months'

Danish F-16 jets to Ukraine will be delayed by several months: Report – POLITICO

I thought they might have been Dutch but, but, my memory is very hazy dammit so it could well not be the case.

The Danes certainly did announce a delay maybe a week and a half back.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian forces allegedly shot down a Russian A-50 military aircraft over the Azov Sea, RBC Ukraine reported on Jan. 14, citing an unnamed source in the Ukrainian military. An additional Russian military plane, the Il-22M, was also allegedly damaged. https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-downs-russian-a-50-plane-over-azov-sea/

China needs to be involved in efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine, Swiss Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis told a news conference in Davos on Jan. 14, Reuters reported. https://kyivindependent.com/swiss-diplomat-china-needed-to-end-war-in-ukraine/

⚡️Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has proposed an international working group on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the minister wrote on Facebook on Jan. 14. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-minister-proposes-international-working-group-to-withdraw-russian-troops-from-ukraine/

⚡️Governor: Russia carries out https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-250-air-strikes-avdiivka/ 250 air strikes on Avdiivka in 2 weeks. [that's roughly 17 a day on average; it shows the level of aerial problem that Ukraine is up against in defending Avdiivka]

⚡️Zelensky: 'Good news' on air defense systems https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-government-is-preparing-good-news-about-air-defense-systems/ to come soon.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv is preparing to announce “good news” about air-defense systems during his evening address on Jan. 14. [no details yet]
He added that Ukraine is increasing its production of artillery ammunition every month.

⚡️ Reuters: UK to commit https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-uk-to-commit-20-000-personnel-to-nato-exercises/ 20,000 military personnel for NATO exercises.

️Police: Russia destroys https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-destroy-granary-in-kharkiv-oblast/ granary in Kharkiv Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JAN 15, 2024
■ Most engagements & settlements under fire this year so far
■ Fewer strikes however; 🇷🇺 above 7-day avg, 🇺🇦 below
■ Biggest casualties & tank losses reported this year so far
■ Landbased equipment losses well above average [for this year]

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remains the favorite for a second term, and no other candidate currently stands a chance to replace her, — Politico

It’s official: Soldiers of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the enemy A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and the Il-22 enemy air control post.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry proposed to include the Russian Federation in the discussion of the Ukrainian Peace Formula
This was stated by Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis at the fourth meeting of nation

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Lavrov invited a delegation from North Korea to the Russian Federation.
As reported by the Russian propaganda media, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK, Choi Song-hye, accepted the invitation. The visit is scheduled for January 15-17.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russia's massive missile strikes are no longer targeting Ukraine's energy sector, as they did last winter, but rather defense industry facilities, headquarters, command and control systems, and individual frontline units.
The DIU said that while the Russians are not currently hitting energy facilities, they are still monitoring their condition. [yet more confirmation they really -had- been deliberately targetting infrastructure rather than military targets previously]

🇪🇪The Estonian prime minister said that her country would not extradite Ukrainians of mobilization age.

🇷🇴 Ukraine has begun negotiations with Romania on security guarantees, the ninth country with which it is conducting such talks

🇦🇺Australia is dismantling https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-14/ukraine-requests-australian-taipans/103318810 of 45 MRH-90 Taipan helicopters, which Ukraine had requested

About 850 residents remain in Chasovyi Yar in Donetsk region, said Vadym Filashkin, head of the regional military administration. According to him, people are holding on to their property
Before the large-scale invasion, the town was home to 14,000 residents.

Vovchansk, Kharkiv oblast. Russians destroyed hangars with grain.

Feeling enraged and worried about bloody Trump. What a start to the day

He'll be in a courtroom tomorrow, I know, but just the very fact this can happen anywhere and that there's even the possibility of him running....how can it be real life?!

I know. I was sat with my husband talking about this last night, and just couldn’t believe I was having the conversation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and severely damaged an Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
• A senior Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, which is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are able to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
• Skibitskyi indicated that international sanctions are constraining Russian missile and drone production as Russian forces likely continue to adapt their missile and drone strike packages in an effort to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses.
• German outlet BILD reported on classified German documents describing a hypothetical scenario to prepare for a possible future conflict between NATO and Russia. Developing such scenarios, which are usually classified, is a normal task for professional military staffs.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Switzerland on January 15 to discuss aspects of the Ukrainian peace plan and support for Ukraine with global leaders at the Davos World Economic Forum from January 15 to 19.
• A North Korean delegation including North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Song Hui arrived in Moscow on January 14 for an official state visit to Russia on January 15 to 17.
• Russia and Iran are preparing to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to further develop Russian-Iranian military-technological cooperation.
• The Kremlin is intensifying censorship measures to limit criticism of the Russian war effort in Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances west of Donetsk City and near Krynky amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact.
• The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is reportedly forming a women’s drone operating detachment.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Ukrainian resistance forces detonated a Russian military UAZ Patriot vehicle in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, injuring four Russian personnel and killing an unspecified number of personnel.

Note: A Russian insider source claiming to be an employee of an unspecified Russian security structure claimed that unspecified Russian actors created a “duck” (a Russian term for a false claim) about how Russian forces shot down the A-50 to reassure Russian pilots that missions over the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are still safe and that human error was the cause of the incident.[13] It is unclear why Russian pilots should be more comfortable with the idea that their ground-based air defenders are so incompetent.

Russian State Duma deputies from the ruling United Russia party proposed a draft bill that would allow the Russian government to confiscate property from individuals convicted of spreading “fake” information about the Russian military

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