Interesting tweet from Anton Gerashchenko, not sure it really comes to any workable solution but with the cracks beginning to show in Western unity/funding I fear Putin's watch and wait brief is starting to pay off:
I read this piece by Valery Pekar, Ukrainian professor, researcher and expert, and decided to share it with you. The following is the translation of his Facebook post (I shortened it a little bit):
"Western elites are afraid of three options of how events might develop further:
1️⃣ They are afraid of Ukrainian defeat: it would mean a political defeat for all who supported Ukraine, and strengthening of the global authoritarian vector, with a likelihood of Russian aggression spreading to Europe and the start of Chinese aggression.
2️⃣ They are afraid of Russian defeat: it means Russia breaking down, collapsing, a humanitarian catastrophe, a refugee crisis of a huge scale, uncontrolled spread of nuclear weapons and excessive strengthening of China.
3️⃣ They are afraid of the war dragging on: it means accumulation of fatigue in their societies, aggravation of internal political confrontation, and, in the end, Ukrainian defeat with all the consequences from point 1.
If you [Western elites] fear Ukrainian defeat, Russian defeat, war dragging on, then what remains?
🔷️ One of the options is to continue living with the myths that represent the old outlook on the world, e.g.:
🔹️Putin will die (he won't because a person who has several doubles controlled by his close environment, cannot die);
🔹️After Putin's death Navalny will become president of Russia (he won't because the real power is in the hands of the FSB and other clans and even if Navalny is set free and appointed president, it wouldn't change anything);
🔹️After Putin's death and Navalny's inauguration, he will democratize Russia in a couple of years (he won't because democracy requires citizens and institutions, and Russia has neither).
🔷️ Another option is to freeze the war. But in order to do that, Russian and Ukrainian sides must agree to negotiations and freezing, and neither side agrees to this at the moment: Ukrainian society won't approve if Ukrainian political leaders do that, and Putin doesn't want negotiations. He thinks that time plays into his hands and he just needs to wait for Ukraine to exhaust herself.
🔷️One more option is to do nothing and hope for something to happen that will change the situation or lead to new information appearing. For example, Putin will die (see above). This is what's happening right now, with the slogan "We'll be with Ukraine for as long as it takes" - takes to do what?
❗️So, the absence of vision of how the war will end makes the end of war rather complicated and even impossible (hopefully, no one harbors any illusions anymore that the AFU reaching the borders of 1991 will mean the end of the war).
🔷️ What can be done?
There is only one way: Ukraine must show maximum initiative in this issue. Ukraine must realize, analyze and demonstrate possible scenarios of the post war world to our allies. A desirable scenario must be agreed upon and a request for all the resources and mechanisms that are necessary to carry it out must be made. Formulate a clear and concise message to non-Western countries (sometimes called "the global South"). Gather a global coalition for sustainable peace, like the coalition for Ukrainian defense. Otherwise the marathon will turn into running in circles."
https://x.com/gerashchenkoen/status/1709534079400509654?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg