Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

1. Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Always good to have a wider context Magicfox - thank you. It’s quite long so will listen later.

Thanks @Positivethought - I'm listening now so can post any highlights but yes it's super long!

Thanks so much Blueshoes!

Got time for the ISW, so:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement.
• Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.
• The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area.
• Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to renegotiate the Black Sea Grain Initiative until all of Russia’s extensive terms are met during the BRICS Business Forum in South Africa on August 22.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be trying to increase Wagner’s presence in Africa as part of an effort to maintain Wagner as a cohesive and independent organization.
• A Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) delegation arrived in Libya on August 22, likely as part of the Russian MoD’s efforts to set conditions to possibly replace the Wagner Group with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).
• The Kremlin is reportedly planning to cancel gubernatorial elections in the Republic of Khakassia in order to prevent a Russian veteran’s loss and ensure a United Russia victory, likely demonstrating the Kremlin’s concern over domestic support for the war and the fragility of its veneer of electoral legitimacy.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia on August 22 and advanced in certain areas.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 22 and made advances near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian authorities continue their campaign of religious persecution in occupied Ukraine.

['gubernatorial' means 'relating to the governor' it seems]

😁

Thanks Ducks & Blueshoes.
Latest on Twitter:

There are reports a Russian coastal anti-ship missile complex (BRPK) Bastion was hit in Crimea which is able to carry Onyx missiles. Additionally it is reported that radar stations were also damaged.

A total of 7 explosions were heard.

Photograph of explosion aftermath in link below:

x.com/noelreports/status/1694267466791174550?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

So in the context of the question yesterday 'whats happening in Kherson?', and the Budanov comment this looks an interesting article

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russian-use-of-pontoon-bridges-indicates-logistical-bottlenecks/
UK Defense Ministry: Russian use of pontoon bridges indicates logistical bottlenecks

As of mid-August, the use of pontoon bridges indicate that Russian forces occupying Crimea and Kherson Oblast face logistical issues, weeks after Ukrainian attacks on the bridges that link the two occupied regions, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on Aug. 23.

On Aug. 6, the Ukrainian military confirmed striking the strategically important Chonhar and Henichesk bridges, which connect northern Crimea with Kherson Oblast.

The continued use of temporary pontoon bridges indicate that the permanent bridges have not yet been repaired.

These floating bridges create logistical friction and bottlenecks, as Russian forces have become partially reliant on a long diversion via Armiansk in northwestern Crimea. Crimea is the central logistics hub for Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

Ultimately, the pontoon bridges are "unlikely to be able to fully sustain the flow of heavy vehicles carrying ammunition and weaponry to the front," the ministry added.

Russian proxies in Crimea and Kherson Oblasts said Ukraine hit the bridges on Aug. 6 using British-French-made Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. The Ukrainian military did not specify the type of missiles that struck the bridges.

Ukraine had repeatedly targeted Chonhar Bridge since June 2023, as the bridge serves as Russia's fastest rail route from occupied Crimea to the southern front line.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicted on Aug. 6 that the strikes are likely to cause major logistical issues.

The ISW pointed out that some of the roads to which Russian forces have rerouted traffic following the bridge attacks are "within artillery range" of Ukrainian troops in Kherson Oblast.

This may force Russian troops to take less efficient back roads, slowing down transport of equipment and personnel to the southern front lines, the ISW said.

An article about the editor of Russia's only independent newspaper. Apparently a Channel 4 documentary was shown on Monday
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/21/dmitry-muratov-price-of-truth-novaya-gazeta-russia-putin/

Pah, never mind the pretty desk top stuff, they should have been given one of these (the real fun starts at about 3 minutes)…

That's sick! If only it was the real thing. I thought nice model for my nephews and then it started flying and landing and everything. How is it controlled?

That's amazing I particularly like the Zeus decal!

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️️️ Mayor says drone interceptedhttps://kyivindependent.com/mayor-says-drone-intercepted-over-moscow-2/ over Moscow. Russian air defense intercepted a drone attack over the Mozhaysky district in the Moscow Region on Aug. 22, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said on Telegram. The second drone struck a building under construction in the Moscow City financial district.

️⚡️️ Update: Three drones reported kyivindependent.com/update-three-drones-intercepted-in-moscow-region/ in Moscow region. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that three drones were spotted in the Moscow region during the early hours of Aug. 23. Two of the drones were reportedly shot down by Russian air defense and the third hit a building in the Moscow City complex.

⚡️️️ Shelling reported in central Kherson.

⚡️️️Russia launches 20 drones overnight https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-20-drones-overnight-strikes-odesa-grain-storage/, strikes Odesa grain storage. Russia launched an overnight drone attack on Odesa Oblast and damaged a grain storage facility on the Danube, Governor Oleh Kiper said on Aug. 23.

⚡️️️Lithuanian, Portuguese presidents arrive https://kyivindependent.com/lithuanian-portuguese-presidents-arrive-in-kyiv/ in Kyiv. The Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda and the Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa arrived in Kyiv on the morning of Aug. 23, ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day on Aug. 24.

Well worth a read.

Farewell interview with UK Ambassador to Ukraine Dame Melinda Simmons who is coming to the end of her 4 tumultuous and challenging years.

"People are waking up to understanding of Russia being colonial fascist-leaning country’’

She is the ambassador during the full-scale Invasion and resident in Kyiv during her 4 years. During that time, she has only seen her family 2-3 times a year when she has been able to go back to UK. She understands the sense of separation that Ukrainians feel. She has a yellow and blue manicure in the colors of Ukraine's national flag.

The ambassador, one of the most outspoken supporters of Ukraine among Western diplomats, shared her perspective on sanctions against Russian oligarchs, addressed Ben Wallace’s infamous “lack of gratitude” statement, and opened up about the challenges of being an ambassador in a country at war.

kyivindependent.com/british-ambassador-simmons-the-challenge-for-ukraine-is-not-to-take-support-for-granted/

One of the two guys on the ground is controlling it via radio remote control - if you look at the end of the video you can see the little R/C unit in the hand of the man who pats down on the top of the cockpit canopy.

Very impressive model and some nice flying...

Notimagain, thanks for the explanation and for sharing the link

Latest from Lawrence Freedman:

Ukraine's offensive: is it failing?

https://samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-offensive-is-it-failing?utm_medium=web

Rumours a Russian helicopter pilot has deliberated landed a Mi-8 and surrendered.

Of course this could well be bollocks and propaganda to further undermine Russian morale.

But hell it makes for a good story either way.

just To make you smile 😂

As you imply there's a few versions of the story kicking around, including it being down navigation error (it's happened before, conflicts various), and talk of a shoot out which left two of the three crew dead.....

Lol, didn't even bother to put the war criminal on a table. He looks just fine down there.

https://news.sky.com/story/ten-killed-in-private-jet-crash-north-of-moscow-wagner-leader-yevgeny-prigozhin-on-passenger-list-12946006

BIG news if true ….

Falling out a tall building wasn't high enough place to accidentally fall from.

I think this is about as surprising as night following day tbh.

It was always a question of when not if.

The question is more, which faction or agency, got him?

Now confirmed as dead by the BBC

Wagner boss Prigozhin killed in plane crash in Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733

Prigozhin-linked channel says plane was shot down.

There is footage on line which is being claimed that shows this.

I take this with a huge pinch of salt - but someone wants people to believe this.

One moment he is in Africa, the next a plane falls from a window.

Hmm.