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Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

992 replies

MagicFox · 08/07/2023 11:10

With thanks as usual to everyone!

--

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335
Chatillon · 12/08/2023 16:19

Glory to Ukraine from The Lizard.

A wind battered flag that hasn’t come down in 18 months.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
blueshoes · 12/08/2023 16:21

hehe, rest well, Ducks. You did more work before lunch than I have done the whole day. Thank you as always for your unflagging updates.

MissConductUS · 12/08/2023 19:46

Here's a heartwarming update from my neck of the woods. Wounded Ukrainian soldiers get a standing ovation from the corps of cadets at West Point. The video was taken in the cadet mess hall. Let's hope they took the Ukrainians elsewhere for dinner. 😁

https://twitter.com/Kind_Deeds_Org/status/1686030442544218112

https://twitter.com/Kind_Deeds_Org/status/1686030442544218112

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 12/08/2023 21:13

That's so lovely MissConduct 🥹

RedToothBrush · 13/08/2023 00:51

Significant worry. British storm missiles will run out between Oct and Feb. They aren't in production. So when they are gone, there are no more. Ukraine is relying on the US or Germany to hand over their equivalents.

Meanwhile 'Kerch Bridge' is trending. I like this.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 11:48

Something has happened to the ISW site. My IT security partner says it's not actually an SSL problem, he says that they may be under attack and have taken the site offline for now to stop bigger damage. Possibly. "Cloudflare protects against DDos / mass traffic attacks, but it cannot help with targeted, actual hacking / break-ins"

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 11:52

Talking of worrying attacks, this was posted by the UK Electoral Commission.

The attacker is unknown at this point, at least publically and perhaps not at all.

Electoral Commission
AT ElectoralCommUK

Today we announced that we have been the subject of a complex cyber-attack, and our systems were accessed by hostile actors.
1:14 PM · Aug 8, 2023
·
1.4M
Views

Hostile actors were active in our systems and had access to servers which held our email, control systems, and copies of the electoral registers. We have since worked with external security experts and the National Cyber Security Centre to investigate and secure our systems.

The electoral registers include the name and address of those registered to vote between 2014 and 2022, the names of overseas voters, but not the details of anonymous voters. While much of this data is already in the public domain, we understand the concern this may cause.

We regret that we could not prevent this cyber-attack and apologise to those affected. We have since made improvements to the security, resilience, and reliability of the Commission’s IT systems.

We notified the Information Commissioner’s Office and remain in contact with them. Read our full statement and public notification:

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/electoral-commission-subject-cyber-attack

"The incident was identified in October 2022 after suspicious activity was detected on the regulator’s systems. It became clear that hostile actors had first accessed the systems in August 2021. The Commission has since worked with external security experts and the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) to investigate and secure its systems."

[my bolding]

https://twitter.com/ElectoralCommUK

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 12:03

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-advance-10-12-miles-in-tactically-significant-move/ in 'tactically significant' move.
Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.

⚡️Maliar calls for calm about news concerning Ukrainian attack across Dnipro https://kyivindependent.com/maliar/
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar sought to tamp down speculations about a Ukrainian raid across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Report: Russia replicates https://kyivindependent.com/report-3/ Iranian drones, using them to attack Ukraine.
A report from a weapons research group indicates that Russia has started making copies of attack drones obtained from Iran in the previous year and has been using them against Ukraine.

Zelensky: Greece joins https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-greece-joins-g7s-security-commitments-to-ukraine/G7's security commitments to Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Germany's Rheinmetall to deliver Luna drone system https://kyivindependent.com/germanys-rheinmetall-to-deliver-luna-drone-system-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine by the end of 2023, Bild am Sonntag reported on Aug. 12, citing company sources.
The package will consist of a ground control station with several drones, a launch catapult and military trucks, according to Bild.

Following Russian media outlets' earlier reports of Ukraine's strike on the Crimean Bridge, Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian proxy head of occupied Crimea, said that air defense had intercepted another missile over the Kerch Strait at around 3 p.m. on Aug. 12.
Krym Realii media outlet reported "new explosions in Kerch" at 3 p.m. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxy-claims-one-more-missile-targeting-crimea-bridge-shot-down-more-explosions-reported/

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of over 30,000 Russian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-30-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ in Ukraine. The media organizations carry out a name-by-name count of the dead. [however, very many dead are not reported or even counted]

⚡️Russian media: Fighter jet crashes https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-fighter-jet-crashes-in-kaliningrad-oblast/ in Kaliningrad Oblast.

⚡️Ukrainian forces report hitting 2 Russian ammunition depots https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-2-warehouses-on-dnipros-eastern-bank/ in occupied Oleshky in southern Ukraine overnight.

⚡️Explosion reported https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/22229 in Russian-occupied Berdiansk.

⚡️ Prosecutor General's Office: 500 children killed, 1,097 injured https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-generals-office-500-children-killed-1-090-injured-by-russias-all-out-war/ by Russia's all-out war.
However, the actual numbers may be much higher since they do not fully account for territories still under Russian occupation, recently liberated, or experiencing heavy fighting.

A family of four was killed this morning in the village of Shyroka Balka, including two children: a 12-year-old son and a 23-day-old new baby.
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-5-including-baby-in-kherson-oblast/ [Russian values, eh?]

Ragnar Gudmundsson
51m

WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 13 HIGHLIGHTS:
■ Strike data:missile strikes in 2023 reach 2k
■ Troop losses up between days, equipment above 7-day average
■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery & APV losses
■ Five more air defence systems destroyed

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 12:14

UNITED24 media Telegram

⚡️ Air defense of Ukraine has already shot down 13 Kinzhal and more than 20 Iskander and S-400 missiles, — Ignat
Every month the Russians produce about 100 missiles of various types; among them are Kinzhal missiles.
However, Ignat claims the Russians have a relatively small supply of Kinzhal missiles.

🇵🇱 Against the backdrop of tensions with Belarus, Poland increases the security of the Suval corridor and begins a training operation on the border.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Defense of Great Britain, Tony Radakin, arrived in Ukraine and met with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

According to researchers from Conflict Armament Research, Russia has initiated the production and utilization of its own version of Iran's Shaed-136 drones in operations against Ukraine.
Examination of debris from two drones that were shot down in the southern region of Ukraine revealed that they closely resembled Iranian Shahed-136 drones. However, distinctive differences were observed in one of the drones, including the presence of electronic modules previously used by the Russian Federation in its surveillance drones, particularly navigation modules. There were also differences in the body construction.
Both Russian and Iranian drones predominantly consist of foreign components. The experts identified more than 30 modules housing around 100 components in these two drones.
It's worth noting that 12 components were produced after the commencement of the large-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

A 103-year-old volunteer from Zhytomyr region weaves ghillie suits for the Armed Forces. [this photo cracks me up. 104yo lady and a giant walking Chewbacca]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 12:22

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️In the morning, in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, Russians stopped the Palau-flagged cargo ship Sukra Okan, which was heading to the Ukrainian port of Izmail. The occupiers opened fire with small arms and sent Russian military personnel to the ship by helicopter.

The Russian Defense Ministry claims that after the "inspection" the ship continued to move to the port of Izmail.

minsmum · 13/08/2023 14:18

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1690686344563953664 not sure if this has been posted, the Russian commander who disappeared a few days ago , is pictured detailing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1690686344563953664

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/08/2023 15:09

@RedToothBrush

MAKS 23
AT MaksNAFOFELLA
·
32m

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has confirmed that #Germany is currently studying technical restrictions on Taurus cruise missiles (geo-restrictions) before sending them to #Ukraine", - Spiegel

(my partner confirmed the Spiegel did indeed say that)

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA

RedToothBrush · 13/08/2023 15:13

They need that bad.

Will make a huge difference to the viability of Ukraine's counter offensive.

blueshoes · 13/08/2023 15:36

Yeah RTB, German Taurus can plug the much needed gap once the British Storm run out.

Minsmum, that Russian commander is a brave man. Hope his intelligence is authentic and he inspires more defections.

minsmum · 13/08/2023 23:18

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1690668145697038336 Visegrad states that there is new evidence that Andrew Bagshaw was captured,tortured and killed by the Wagner group

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1690668145697038336

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/08/2023 11:18

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-13-2023

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12:00pm ET on August 13.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 13 and reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • ISW has not observed confirmation that Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Urozhaine and Russian forces likely currently maintain positions in at least the southern part of the settlement.
  • The Russian information space is seizing on Ukrainian gains in Urozhaine (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) to highlight poor Russian morale and command challenges in the area.
  • A Russian warship forcibly stopped and searched a civilian cargo ship en route to the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to curtail maritime traffic to Ukrainian ports without committing naval assets to fully enforce a blockade.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and attempted to regain lost positions near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in some areas.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in several areas.
  • The Wagner Group is likely downsizing and reconfiguring to adapt to financial pressure following the June 24 Wagner rebellion.
  • Ukrainian partisans claimed to have attacked a Russian military base in occupied Mariupol on August 13.

Highlights of yesterday's assessments
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are maintaining a presence on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast in contrast to previous Ukrainian raids, but ISW does not yet assess that these positions constitute a bridgehead.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 12 and reportedly made tactically significant advances along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly launched two missile strikes targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge and a drone attack targeting occupied Crimea on August 12.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 12 and made no confirmed gains.
  • The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is preparing an amendment to the law on the conscription age that would increase the military service deferment age for IT specialists from 27 years to 30 years, likely in response to concerns about “brain drain” from Russia.
  • Russian authorities are reportedly adjusting propaganda language about the war aimed at Russian schoolchildren in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/08/2023 11:46

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Guardian: Ukraine 'most heavily mined https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-ukraine-most-heavily-mined-country/ country in the world,' Defense Minister says.

⚡️Reuters: Ukrainian army attempts https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-ukrainian-army-attempts-to-break-through-russian-lines-in-donetsk-oblast/ to break through Russian lines in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-liberates-3-square-kilometers-near-bakhmut/ 3 square kilometers near Bakhmut in last week.

⚡️Putin cracks https://kyivindependent.com/putin-cracks-down-on-pro-war-opposition-as-all-out-war-falters/ down on pro-war opposition as all-out war falters.
After Russian dictator Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he swiftly eliminated the liberal anti-war opposition.
But Putin now faces a threat from the other side – pro-war hawks who criticize Russia's political and military leadership for mishandling the war effort.

⚡️Official: Partisans set Russian base https://kyivindependent.com/official-partisans-set-russian-base-on-fire-in-mariupol/ on fire in Mariupol. Russia has lost at least 10 troops, three trucks, and five cars, Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the exiled mayor of Mariupol said in another Telegram post.

⚡️The Russian military has unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions in the Bakhmut, Shakhtarske and Zaporizhzhia directions during the day, Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces reported on Aug. 13. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russians-fail-to-regain-lost-positions-in-3-directions/

⚡️OSINT outfit: Russia lied about ship inspection https://kyivindependent.com/open-source-intelligence-russia-lies-about-inspecting-palau-flagged-cargo-ship-in-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine/ in Black Sea.
InformNapalm, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence outfit, reported on Aug. 13 that the Russian authorities had lied about a Russian ship firing warning shots in the Black Sea earlier on the same day.

⚡️ Update: Aug 7. Russian attack on Pokrovsk kills https://kyivindependent.com/update-russian-aug-7-strikes-on-pokrovsk-kill-10/**10. Eighty-eight people were injured in the attack.

⚡️ Media: Turkish charter plane briefly enters https://kyivindependent.com/media-turkish-charter-plane-shortly-gets-via-no-fly-zone-in-ukraine/ no-fly zone in Ukraine

Pro-war Russian bloggers are complaining of poor Russian morale and personnel failures after Ukrainian troops made gains in Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Aug. 13 report. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-47/ [ I guess they can always beat and starve the soldiers and not give them weopons until they cheer up]

Ukrainian journalists identified Russian commanders allegedly involved in P-800 Onyx missile strikes on Odesa on July 19 and July 23, damaging the city's UNESCO heritage sites. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-journalists-identify-russian-officers-involved-in-july-strikes-on-odesa/

⚡️National Resistance Center: New forced passportization strategy targets https://kyivindependent.com/russian-4/ teens.
Russian authorities in occupied regions of Ukraine are threatening to withhold high school certificates from students who do not agree to accept Russian passports, the National Resistance Center reported on Aug. 13.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 14 HIGHLIGHTS:
■ Strike data: Mostair strikes since Jul 12
■ Troop losses 500+, equipment well above 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle & APV losses

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/08/2023 11:58

UNITED24 Media Telegram

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz explained why his country is delaying the decision to supply Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles.
"As in the past, we will always very carefully check every solution that works, makes sense, what our contribution can be. This also applies to the delivery of Taurus missiles." Scholz said, according to Tagesschau.

France supplies Ukraine with 155-mm ammunition every month, and in six months it trained six thousand Ukrainian soldiers, — Minister of Defense Lecornu.

heat prices surged following reports that a Russian warship had fired at the cargo ship Shukra Okan in the Black Sea, according to Bloomberg.
Wheat futures experienced a 1.2% increase, reaching $6.56 per bushel. This rise came in response to the Russian announcement earlier in the day, where they claimed to have opened fire on a cargo ship carrying Turkish sailors. This incident followed a 1.5% decline in wheat prices on Friday, as reported by Bloomberg. [InformNapalm says they lied]

Russian occupiers attacked Odesa three times at night — air defense forces shot down 15 attack UAVs and 8 Kalibr-type missiles, debris from the downed missiles damaged a supermarket and a dormitory, previously three people were injured.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/08/2023 12:05

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Wagner militant leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is still valuable to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, but Prigozhin himself has plans for Wagner's activities in Africa, where his position contrasts with that of the Kremlin, CNN reports.
Prigozhin's forces are already involved in activities in Sudan, where Wagner supplies militias fighting against the Sudanese army, and are also active in the Central African Republic and Libya.

Reznikov said that during the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military sometimes encountered 5 enemy mines per square meter of territory.
Serhiy Ryzhenko, chief doctor at Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipro, where many of the most seriously wounded are being treated, said he sees 50 to 100 soldiers a day, with mines being the second most common cause of injury after artillery.

📉The Russian ruble is falling. One dollar is now worth more than 100 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange. This hasn't happened since March 2022, when the dollar in Russia reached 121.5 rubles. It was a historic high then. Now it could happen again.

Search operations at the Zagorsk Optical and Mechanical Plant in Moscow Region, where an explosion occurred recently, have been completed. Eight people have not been found, local authorities said.
Russian media report that 81 people were injured in the explosion, one woman was killed, and 172 body fragments and 12 bone remains were found in the rubble.

🔱 The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed that the Russians used 15 Shahed-136/131 and eight Kalibr cruise missiles. They were all shot down by air defense. [the Odesa damage was from falling debrís apparently]

On the morning of August 14, anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Russian helicopter in the Bakhmut sector. The Air Force clarified that the Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter. It was worth about $16 million.

In Krakow and Warsaw, Poland, two Russians were detained for posting propaganda ads for the Wagner PMC. They have already been taken into custody and charged with espionage.

🇷🇴 In Romania, a sea mine exploded on the shores of the Costinesti resort. It hit the pier in front of the Forum Hotel. One man complained of deafness afterwards. Military divers were sent to the scene. There are suspicions that there is more than one mine in the area.

Law enforcers expose offender who cheated relatives of a prisoner of war out of almost UAH 150 thousand - Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office.
A 34-year-old resident of Kyiv region, posing as an employee of the Ministry of Defense, offered the woman her assistance in locating her husband, a prisoner of war, for a reward.
She also promised her assistance in putting the man on the list of prisoners of war for exchange as soon as possible.
Between May and June 2023, the victim of the fraud transferred money to the fraudster six times for a total amount of about UAH 150 thousand. After that, the suspect stopped contacting her and spent the money on her own needs

MissConductUS · 14/08/2023 14:59

Pro-war Russian bloggers are complaining of poor Russian morale and personnel failures after Ukrainian troops made gains in Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Aug. 13 report. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-47/ [ I guess they can always beat and starve the soldiers and not give them weapons until they cheer up]

The battle at Urozhaine was a rout, with the Russians retreating in disarray, thanks partly to the use of artillery deployed cluster munitions.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1690647124202172416

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1690647124202172416

MissConductUS · 14/08/2023 17:41

One other reason why the gains at Urozhaine are important. This is the thrust toward Mariupol and is one of the least defended sections of the front. If we see more success here, it could become the main axis of attack.

DaisyDoo09 · 14/08/2023 19:26

Just seen on the news that Russian bomber planes have been intercepted north of Scotland is this something to worry about?

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/08/2023 19:39

Happens all the time. The Russians push boundaries to see what happens, the boundaries push back. All very much like young adolescents really.

Igotjelly · 14/08/2023 19:41

DaisyDoo09 · 14/08/2023 19:26

Just seen on the news that Russian bomber planes have been intercepted north of Scotland is this something to worry about?

100% nothing to worry about. If they wanted to bomb us they wouldn’t use planes.

Igotjelly · 14/08/2023 19:42

Not just us who have the privilege either today, think Norway and Denmark have scrambled planes today too over Russian bombers.