Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Because you believe Russian propaganda that Ukraine is being defeated? (though surely someone, somewhere must have a brain cell and realise that's not the case)

Russian exceptionality?

It's not actively under attack and I am sure much has been made about the army's defences in that region. I suspect water supply problems would cause more concern to the tourists.

Water supply is a pretty big deal though!

How bad is the water supply situation there? There were pictures of brown water just after the dam was destroyed but I imagine it's stabilized and for ordinary consumption is fine, or we would have heard more about it. Farming might be another matter.

So in combination the request for cluster munitions to clear minefields seeing to be seriously considered

While they can help clear minefields, I think the Ukrainians would use them primarily to attack Russian trenches and other troop concentrations. I also saw a report that the Ukrainians wanted to disassemble the munitions and drop the bomblets from drones.

French AMX-10 RC light tanks are not suitable for offensive operations due to their thin armor, — AFP

"A military soldier with the call sign "Spartanets" told the publication that the explosion of an artillery shell near the AMX-10 RC could lead to the penetration of fragments through the armor. In one such case, the entire crew died,"

Shouldn't come as any surprise (sadly), the design was not spec'd or sold as being proof against a near miss or direct hit by decent calibre artillery..

"He noted that such tanks are effective in reconnaissance and firepower support."

That would be because that was what it was designed to do.

That would be because that was what it was designed to do.

Correct. It's a scouting vehicle with an unusually large gun. It's also on wheels, not tracks. Not an MBT in anyone's book.

These are people who only hear what state-controlled media tells them. They think that a "special military operation" is dealing with some "nazis" in Ukraine, and that it's all going swimmingly. Explosions in Crimea? What explosions?

Here's a non-paywall link to this piece by Roland Oliphant in the Telegraph:
The Russian power players who could take down Putin
The mutiny showed that Russian leadership is won by force. Here are those waiting in the wings to take a shot at the top job

interesting article, thanks @WinterdeWinter.

IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency

@iaeaorg
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2h
Ukraine’s #Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant has been reconnected to its only available back-up power line 4 months after it was lost but the site’s power situation remains extremely fragile during the ongoing military conflict DG @rafaelmgrossi said today

This is incredibly poignant and sad - the Ukrainian writer Andrey Kurkov writing in the Guardian about his fellow writer Victoria Amelina, who was murdered by the injuries she sustained in the Kramatorsk attack. I'm so angry and sad. What a fucking pointless and miserable loss.
‘Her smile sparkled even in the most difficult times’: novelist Andrey Kurkov on Victoria Amelina | Books | The Guardian

What an incredible woman and an awful loss. I feel a donation to the defence of Ukraine in her memory coming on.

💗

Because if you’re Russian there aren’t so many places you can go right now?

She returned to the war zone repeatedly without fear for her safety. Her courage and spirit will live on. I have nothing but contempt for Russian cowards and terrorists who would target mass murder of civilians in Kramatorsk twice in a row from afar.

Have donated a chunk to the defence of Ukraine in her memory. With a few pounds thrown in for those trolls from earlier.

Oh, I think I missed them. Well done for marking their contribution!

Trolls are despatched without fanfare. They are simply 'cancelled' by the vigilant members of this thread who report them and you can only tell because suddenly their posts deleted

Now that Prigozhin has reportedly closed down his troll factory in St Petersburg following the recent turmoil in Moscow we will see fewer as some of them have lost their jobs.

mumbles occasionally at least this troll-hunter gets it wrong ...

The fuckers make you paranoid.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-3-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front and made marginal advances on July 3.
• Russian milbloggers have seized on recent Ukrainian activity on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast to call for an increased presence of small river vessels and equipment in the Dnipro River to prevent further Ukrainian advances.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev published an essay that reamplified inflammatory Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine and the West, likely to undermine support for Ukraine at the upcoming NATO summit
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric about the current state of the war in Ukraine and the Wagner Group rebellion on July 3.
• Russian forces continued drone and missile strikes against rear areas in Ukraine overnight and during the day on July 3.
• The Kremlin continues to use tools of digital authoritarianism to surveil Russia’s domestic population and aims to expand domestic production of surveillance technology.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast, near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts administrative border, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Official Russian sources continue to claim that Russian forces repel all Ukrainian assaults on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge.
• The Wagner Group is reportedly suspending regional recruitment on a temporary basis.
• Russian officials continue efforts to portray Russia as a safe custodian of Ukrainian children while inadvertently confirming that Russia is facilitating mass deportations of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been reconnected to its only available backup power line for the first time in four months, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on July 3. https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-reconnected-to-backup-power-line/

At least four drones were launched against Moscow Oblast, all of which were intercepted, Russian state media reported on July 4. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-sources-claim-drone-strikes-in-moscow-oblast/

Ukraine will not receive modern Western fighter jets until its ongoing counteroffensive has finished, said Lieutenant Admiral Rob Bauer, the Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO, on British radio station LBC on July 4. https://kyivindependent.com/nato-admiral-ukraine-not-to-receive-fighter-jets-before-counteroffensive-ends/

⚡️Defense Ministry Ukraine liberates 37.4 square kilometers over past week. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-5/

⚡️Defense Ministry reports escalation on Bakhmut front line advances on southern flank. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-reports-escalated-situation-on-bakhmut-front-line-advances-on-southern-flank/

⚡️Pistorius: Dozens of Leopard 2 tanks will arrive in Ukraine 'in the coming weeks.' kyivindependent.com/dozens-of-leopard-ii/

Ukraine's state budget has received $890 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, the Finance Ministry reported on July 3.
This is the second tranche of a $15.6 billion support package for Ukraine under the EFF's arrangement. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-890-million-from-imf/

⚡️Media: Austria wants to join European air defense initiative over Russian threat. https://kyivindependent.com/media-neutral-austria-to-join-eus-air-defense-intiative/

⚡️New body for investigating Russian crime of aggression opens office in The Hague. https://kyivindependent.com/center-to-investigate-russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine-opens-in-the-hague/

China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu said he hopes for regular joint exercises and patrols by the Russian and the Chinese navies, Reuters reported on July 3. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-china-wants-regular-drills-with-russian-navy/ Meeting with Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov in Beijing, the minister also advocated for stronger communications at all levels between Moscow and Beijing.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi visits Rivne Nuclear Power Plant for 'information exchange' on possible nuclear accident. https://kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-visited-rivne-nuclear-power-plant-for-information-exchange/

⚡️Belgorod Governor offers evacuated Shebekino residents to return home. https://kyivindependent.com/belgorod-governor-tells-shebekino-residents-to-return-home/

Ukrainians under occupation face deportation, loss of property after Putin's new order https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-under-occupation-face-deportation-loss-of-property-after-putins-new-order/
Putin signed an executive order in late April that set a deadline for applying for Russian citizenship in the occupied areas of Ukraine.
Those who refuse and elect to hold onto their Ukrainian passports face losing their property rights, prison sentences, and deportation from their homes.

⚡️Prigozhin breaks silence pledges 'further victories at the front.' https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-breaks-silence-pledges-further-victories-at-the-front/

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it thwarted a car bombing attempt against the Russia-installed proxy head in Crimea Sergei Aksyonov, Russian news agency Interfax reported on July 3. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-sources-claim-assassination-attempt-at-crimea-proxy-head/

⚡️Hungary asks EU to extend exemption for its oil company from Russia sanctions. https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-asks-eu-to-extend-exemption-on-its-oil-company-from-russia-sanctions/

Ukraine's National Corruption Prevention Agency (NACP) added British corporation Unilever to the "international sponsors of war" list for not exiting Russia.
According to the report, the corporation paid about $50 million in taxes to the Russian state budget in 2022. Unilever Russia's profit increased from $61 million in 2021 to more than $117 million last year. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-designates-unilever-as-international-sponsor-of-war/

slightly higher personnel losses again, and another 32 artillery lost. It's got to hurt!

HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUL 4: @ragnarbjartur
■ Increased activity of both sides
■ Troop losses above 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery & drone losses
■ +82 officers added by KIU
■ Oryx update: 32:8 Russian : Ukrainian losses

@MissConductUS and other Americans, Happy Independence Day! :)

ChrisO on the dismantling of Prigozhin's business empire, which hopefully will cause increased logistical problems with getting food and water to the Russian troops on the front line.

https://twitter.com/chrisowiki/status/1675596380490944520?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Thank you!

Many Revolutionary War battle sites exist in my area, particularly Yorktown, Fort Montgomery, and West Point, where the colonists blocked the Hudson River with an iron chain to prevent the British Navy from sailing up the river. West Point is where the US Military Academy was founded in 1802. A church I used to attend has French troops who fought in the war buried in their cemetery, So the war is still quite real for us.

It's a shame the George III was such a nutter. With a better king on the throne then, we might be a Commonwealth country today.

Sky news is reporting a build up of 10s of 1000s of Russian troops around Kreminna in the north