Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Twitter still seems OK for me, other than getting dross from people I've never heard of, or who I fundamentally disagree with.
It's always telling me that most people don't use my vocabulary and asking me if I'm sure I want to post- um, yes. If I think Sunak is a dickhead, that's what I mean. If I think the Russian leadership is a pathetic group of petulant toddlers butchering human beings, that's what I mean

It's a big role of the dice, particularly since he borrowed most of the money to buy Twitter. But as we've seen with the war, Twitter has become almost indispensable for breaking news coverage.

Thanks, I did hear about that. I guess that means they don't feel that increasing ad revenue would make them profitable? Like how a pp mentioned that reducing the number of things people see isn't likely to appeal to advertisers- Musk is evidently not going down that road.

Rumour has it twitter hasn't paid it's bill for Google cloud services. Which probably would explain a fair amount of why service is being restricted

There's a limit to what you can charge for online ads because advertisers have so many places to run them. And if you increase the ratio of ads to content too much, users leave or spend less time on the platform. I think they're raking in as much ad revenue as possible, given the constraints.

Apparently their contract with Google Cloud ran out on 30th June and it hasn't been renewed.

Biden confirmed as coming to UK, Finland and Vilnius (for the NATO summit).

He's now paying again.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-resumes-paying-google-cloud-bloomberg-news-2023-06-21/

Next week is looking very hot and dry in the South and East of Ukraine.

To the point that it may well be a real challenge for Russia logistics to keep on top of water.

War Monitor at warmonitor3
Ukrainian forces have made a significant advance towards the town of Robotyne capturing a key defensive trench line and advancing beyond it heavy fighting continues into the night.
Russian forces have retreated to their two other main defensive lines just north of the town.

Good.

Hopefully Russia cancelling Progozhin's contract would also make it difficult to feed the Russian soldiers.

Zelensky's was recently quoted as saying that the advance has been slower than expected due to long-lasting torrential rains. Hot and dry sounds ideal for movement of heavy vehicles.

The TikTok Warrior King...

I'm seeing more and more signals that the US will send cluster munitions to Ukraine. They have asked for them, Russia has been using them all along, and they would be very helpful in clearing Russian defenses. They would also help Ukraine preserve precious artillery rounds. One cluster munition can have the same effect on the battlefield as five to fifteen artillery rounds. You can even use them to help clear minefields.

U.S. actively considering giving cluster munitions to Ukraine - No final decision has been made on their delivery, but the changing battlefield has intensified the debate over the past week.

MissConduct, I believe the concern with supplying Ukraine with cluster munitions was humanitarian in nature but needs must. Giving Ukraine the weapons and tools to end the war quicker would save more lives in the long run.

I wasn't sure about the de-mining aspect. The article suggested that cluster munitions may add unexploded bomblets to an area which could add to the problems of mines?

@blueshoes, the submunitions can be programmed to explode with a short delay, a longer delay, or when they detect a vehicle. A small percentage will turn out to be duds and not explode at all. Those have to be cleared after the fact, just as mines do. There are already millions of mines in Ukraine, placed by both sides, that will have to be cleared eventually. So they would not create a new problem and are much easier to clear than mines, which are often buried or concealed. Cluster submunitions that don't explode remain visible on the ground where they fell.

MissConductUS, thanks for the explanation. That makes sense.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted counteroffensive operations in six sectors of the front on July 2 and made gains in some of these areas.
• Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine and Kyiv on July 2.
• The Russian MoD’s conflict with the milblogger community over a trivial combat operation may indicate that the Russian military command does not think it has any other successes to report to Putin amidst the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• The Russian MoD’s attempt to overstate a potential tactical Russian victory near the Antonivsky Bridge and its efforts to restrict opposing information has backfired.
• Putin continues to face the choice of either siding with the Russian MoD to defend its weakened reputation or maintaining his support among pro-war ultranationalist milbloggers and their patronage networks.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and have advanced as of July 2.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblasts border area.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge as of July 2.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian officials plan to create regional centers for the development of drones in Nizhny Novgorod as well as in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Belarusian sources reported that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials and citizens are actively involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children from occupied territories to Belarus.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on July 2 that Ukrainian forces had advanced in the direction of Berdyansk and Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Maliar also reported that Russians had advanced in several directions in Donetsk Oblast – Lyman, Avdiivka, and Marinka. https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-defense-minister-ukrainian-army-advances-in-2-southern-directions/

Ukrainian forces continue to gradually advance on the flanks of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, the Eastern Command spokesperson Serhii Cherevatyi told national television on July 2. https://kyivindependent.com/military-report-advancing-bakhmut-flanks/

About 100 employees of Russian nuclear monopoly Rosatom have left Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the Russian-occupied town of Enerhodar, Dmytro Orlov, the town's mayor, said on July 2. https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-part-of-russian-rosatoms-personnel-leaves-occupied-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/

⚡️Poland to reinforce Belarusian border with counterterrorism forces. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-reinforce-its-belarus-border-with-counterterrorism-forces/

Russian TV show host Dmitriy Kiselev claimed that the Kremlin has spent 858 billion rubles ($9.8 billion at current rates) on funding Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary group. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-tv-host-prigozhins-firms-made-close-to-trillion-rubles-from-state-contracts/ [Bakhmut for $10b and tens of thousands dead. Long may Russian poor judgement last]

Russia's Wagner mercenary group has suspended the work of regional recruitment centers for one month, the group’s recruitment channel on Telegram reported on July 2. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-mercenary-wagner-group-suspends-recruiting-for-one-month/

The Polish and German governments have so far failed to agree on opening a maintenance center in Poland to repair Leopard tanks supplied to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reported on July 2. https://kyivindependent.com/spiegel-poland-and-germany-cannot-agree-on-repair-center-for-leopard-tanks-used-by-ukraine-in-war/

⚡️BBC: Dismantled remnants of British WW2 fighters found buried in Ukrainian forest. https://kyivindependent.com/dismantled-remnants-of-british-ww2-fighters-found-buried-in-ukrainian-forest/

The writers' association PEN Ukraine said in a statement that Ukrainian writer and war crimes researcher Victoria Amelina died on July 1 after she was critically injured in a Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk. https://kyivindependent.com/pen-ukraine-writer-victoria-amelina-dies-following-kramatorsk-strike/

A powerful explosion was reported near the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region on July 2, according to the Russian Telegram channel Baza. https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-reported-near-airfield-in-russias-krasnodar-region/

All medical facilities in the occupied city of Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast have been re-purposed as military hospitals for Russian troops, exiled Mayor Valerii Shybiko said on Priamyi TV channel on July 3. https://kyivindependent.com/exiled-mayor-all-lysychansk-hospitals/

Medium personnel losses, artillery losses over 30 again, 1 helicopter

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Biden to visit Great Britain, NATO summit in Lithuania, then Finland, — White House
The European tour of the American president will last from July 9 to 13.
Biden also plans to discuss Ukraine with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who will visit the US on July 5 and meet with the US president. They will discuss support for Ukraine, Sweden's accession to NATO, China, the fight against climate change, and new technologies.

The EU may allow Russia's Rosselkhozbank to create a subsidiary and connect it to the SWIFT international settlement system to save the grain deal, — Financial Times.

500 policemen, 5,000 border guards and 2,000 soldiers are being brought to the border with Belarus, Poland, — Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland

The EU may allow Russia's Rosselkhozbank to create a subsidiary and connect it to the SWIFT international settlement system to save the grain deal, — Financial Times.
The publication writes that the EU seeks a compromise option to partially fulfill Moscow's demand and protect the Black Sea Grain Agreement.
Two sources familiar with the discussions said proponents of such an option see the idea as "the worst option" to get Putin's consent to extend the deal but view Russian threats to pull it this time as "more serious" than during previous negotiations.
"This highlights how desperately Western governments are trying to preserve the grain export agreement, which is also a financial lifeline for Ukraine, given its huge agricultural sector," the article said.

Some of the employees of the ZNNP and Rosatom employees left Enerhodar
According to Mayor Dmytro Orlov, some of the employees of the ZNPP, who signed contracts with Rosatom, left Enerhodar. Also, at the end of last week, part of Rosatom's personnel — up to 100 specialists — brought in from Russian nuclear power plants left the city.
About 5,000 to 6,000 workers of the ZNNP are currently there, who are hostages of the Russian army, the mayor said. The occupation authorities do not allow them to leave the city limits. And they are not allowed to work because they have blocked their passes unless they have signed a contract with Rosatom.
Orlov also reported there are no shelters in the city in case of an explosion at the Enerhodar NPP.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, believes that in the coming days, Ukrainian troops will carry out a new attack as part of a counteroffensive, and at this time he expects an "attack on the Serbs" in Kosovo.

In the Netherlands, one attacked the embassy of Belarus, leaving the inscriptions "Luka — a terrorist"

The Vatican currently does not have a concrete plan to help start peace talks in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war — Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, after completing trips to Kyiv and Moscow, quotes Il Resto del Carlino.

French AMX-10 RC light tanks are not suitable for offensive operations due to their thin armor, — AFP
A military soldier with the call sign "Spartanets" told the publication that the explosion of an artillery shell near the AMX-10 RC could lead to the penetration of fragments through the armor. In one such case, the entire crew died,
He noted that such tanks are effective in reconnaissance and firepower support.

So happy to announce — Shaybusik is safely reunited with his owner!

Dnipro in the area of the Dniprovska HPP (Zaporizhzhia) after the Russians blew up the Kakhovka HPP

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Heavy fighting in all sectors of the frontline - Hanna Malyar, Deputy Minister of Defense

🔺The enemy is advancing in several directions - Avdiivka, Maryinka, Lyman, Svatove;

🔺Ukrainian Armed Forces are moving forward on the southern flank of the Bakhmut direction, fighting continues on the northern flank;

🔺The Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing with heavy fighting, but gradually in the Berdiansk and Melitopol sectors

[not much today]

Weirdly I didn't get any problems with twitter, I scrolled and read loads the last few days both on my computer and the app and wasn't restricted and I don't pay for twitter.

So happy to announce — Shaybusik is safely reunited with his owner!

I love this. I'll be glad when Shaybusik is out of harms way though.

Reflections and interesting rumours that have caught my eye this week:

Minefields are the biggest issue Ukraine are having at the moment because they can't advance without clearing them and the mine clearers are sitting ducks for helicopters, artillery and drones.

The Ukrainians were clearly taking a lot of casualties and not making as much progress as they wanted then the intel on Wagner made the operational pause make sense.

There seems to be a change in strategy in focusing on artillery in the last week which makes a lot of sense in this context too.

So in combination the request for cluster munitions to clear minefields seeing to be seriously considered, the high number of artillery being taken out and of course the loss of so many aircraft and pilots (both self inflicted and it would appear due to Ukrainian strategy - there's a photo of a 'kill count' on the side of a patriot system circulating on twitter this morning which suggests it's been good at not only defending against missiles and drones but has been quite handy at taking out Russian aircraft) would look to be a good sign.

Thats coupled with the dire rain ending and a heat wave due which will cause water supply problems for Russian logistics who may or may not also have a catering issue.

Further to that it looks like the Ukrainians have made ground over the last few days. Nothing significant, a few hundred metres here and there, but these gains seem to be strategically important in gaining advantageous ground around Bakhmut and Robotyne including the capture of trenches. Robotyne is enroute to Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia region - a break through around this point would start to make it difficult for Russia to continue to supply logistics to the nuclear plant imo looking at the map. The main road to Enerhodar goes through Tokmak - there are smaller alternative roads but I think it's worth noting given movement of personal away from the nuclear plant. And losing the gains around Bakhmut is psychologically draining for the Russians.

There's also a very curious situation going on with the Kursk Bridge. Rumours are circling that Wagner plan to attack it in revenge for being double crossed by Putin. There's also rumours that Prigozhin hasn't been seen again. That's possibly a wise move on his part if he's free. If he's free of course. This has been resulting in seven hour queues to cross the bridge to Crimea as they check ever vehicle. This is apparently pissing off holiday makers (who amazingly seem to still be going to Crimea according to reports!) This also can't be helping logistics especially when there's been some pretty significant strategic strikes on railways in the south of Ukraine. Wagner? Feeling the pinch on logistics and realising the bridge is even more important and can I'll afford another attack?

Then Biden is confirmed for that NATO summit in Vilnius. Now it sounds like Ukraine has got to the point where a number of countries are saying it's now making entry requirements in terms of it capability. It can't join because of the war but the noises have otherwise been very warm. Zelenskyy has been vocal about wanting an invitation too. The mood music on twitter is hopeful that Biden's personal appearance is that good news is incoming for Ukraine as it makes it more likely there will be 'something' positive on the cards.

All this does sound like the cogs are slowly turning and moving forward. We are unlikely still to see something dramatic from the Ukrainian side yet I feel but there is also this sense of 'build up' too. Those cracks in Russian defence are adding up...

Why the fuck would anyone go to Crimea on holiday right now? You'd think self-preservation instincts would kick in!

To see family?

Cos you like watching fireworks in the hot weather?