Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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it seems like anything (bad) is possible now, doesn't it.

Putin's leading Russia even further into the mire.

All this has shown that when he's really up against it, he doesn't double-down as people have said.

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It's significant news that Ukraine has re-taken Russian-held land that was taken over in 2014 I think. Though I wonder how the civilian population will take it now - if they have been Russified or if they will be relieved.

Having listened to Priggy's podcast, I fear he is going to appeal to Russian's more like Saladin than Colonel Kurtz. If not the main event now, surely he could be the catalyst to Putin's downfall by Autumn?

What I am not clear on is where are 98% of PMC Wagner now? Heading to Belarus or creating their own enclave in the South or a bit of both? If they are not heading out to Africa, they are going to get very restless in Belarus. Any thoughts from the wiser people on here?

Yes but this situation was always inevitable past day three...

Lukashenko speaking now - ordered Belarussian army to be at 'full combat readiness'

Agree, pushing for Ukrainian victory outright was always going to mean an uncomfortable crunch point. That does not however mean that it isn't the right thing to do.

I am left wondering if that is because of Ukraine's success or because they are about to host 8,000 battle-hardened criminals in their country.

The full quote was that the army was at 'full combat readiness' on Saturday during the coup attempt. Not that this is the case now

But yes what lovely guests to have in your country

I presume these 8,000 Wagner or ex-Wagner will need to be paid and armed. Can Prigo still do that or be allowed to do that? It seems unlikely that Russia step in to fund if the criminals did not sign up for contracts with the MOD and their loyalties are in question. Who will lead them?

Prigo's a very rich man indeed. Mansion worth 100-150million etc.

Plus quite possibly a LOT of money changed hands on Saturday.

⚡️CNN: Allies advised Ukraine not to strike inside Russia Wagner rebellion. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-allies-advised-ukraine-not-to-strike-inside-russia-during-wagner-rebellion/medium troop loss, still a lot of artillery etc destroyed.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUN 27:
■strikes below 7-day average ■
Troop losses below 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle, APV & drone losses
■ Equipment losses up in dollar terms

It seems Ukraine may have found one of those weaker spots they've been looking for

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1
South Front UPD

With the confirmed liberation of Rivnopil, one of the weakest area in the Russian defense is safely within M777 (yellow line 25 km). There is still about 10 km covered with minefields up to the main Russian defense position. However once there is a breakthrough there, there are no more fortified area as such until Mariupol. However, for Melitopol, there are about 3 main defense lines. Also the area on the map is where two different Russian commands meet, so one can expect a few coordination issues in the area in case of a serious breakthrough.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

At the current stage, the US does not consider the threat of Russian troops undermining the Zaporizhzhia NPP to be "imminent" despite information about the placement of explosives on the territory of the plant, said John Kirby, a representative of the National Security Council of the White House, at a briefing.

Preparations are underway for the transfer of heavy military equipment from the "Wagner" PMC to the active units of the Russian Armed Forces, — Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Germany will not supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, — Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius.

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces is taking place more slowly than Ukraine and its allies would like. Still, objective reasons exist for this, a representative of the National Security Council of the White House said at the briefing. "As I said earlier, over the last six to eight months, the Russians have invested heavily in defense capabilities. In some cases, they have three lines of defense deep. When I say three lines, I mean miles and miles, miles and miles of depth, and three big defensive lines."

Latvia has confirmed the complete suspension of issuing all visas to Russians from June 26 "in connection with the unpredictable development of internal political events in the Russian Federation", — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.

The United States will seek the extradition of Yevgenyi Prigozhin if he ends up in a country with which there is an extradition agreement, Belarus is not one of them, said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

⚡️ British Defense Minister Ben Wallace stated that Storm Shadow missiles "almost unerringly" attacked Russian logistics and had a "significant impact" on the course of the war in Ukraine.

Shallowed Kakhovka reservoir now

Footage of Swedish CV9040C infantry fighting vehicles in the Bakhmut area is published on the Web

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Poland will provide Ukraine with thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition, Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński said after meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Ihor Klymenko.

The German concern Rheinmetall will supply 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine on behalf of the Netherlands next year, Tagesschau reports. The first vehicles are expected in January 2024.

❗️❗️Prigozhin published his first comment since his armed rebellion in Russia ended.
According to him, the purpose of the march on Moscow was to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC and to bring to justice all those "who made a huge number of mistakes" during the war with Ukraine through their unprofessional actions

In an urgent cable Friday night, US Secretary of State Blinken ordered US diplomats around the world to keep quiet on the rebellion in Russia - The Hill, citing three US officials.

🦘The Supreme Court of Australia has finally denied the Russian Embassy the right to extend the lease of a land plot in Canberra where the embassy was constructing a new building.
The Russian diplomat who had illegally occupied the land and lived there in a modular house left. He had been living there for a week. The Russian could not be evicted by force because he had diplomatic immunity.

Exactly one year ago, on June 27, 2022, the Russians attacked the Amstor shopping center in Kremenchuk with Kh-22 missiles, killing 19 people and injuring 66 others.

Official flight from Moscow to Washington

Ooh I wonder what/who this is.

Also, interesting timing.

I understand not all trade with Russia has been sanctioned.
Plus there are always going to be diplomatic flights.

Putin had just been back on TV again (broadcast by Sky News just now) saying absolutely nothing, again, so weird.

He needs/wants to be seen.

Agree he ‘needs’ to be seen.

Yep, and that sometimes rotations of embassy/UN staff..

No idea what the deal is with this specific flight but it could be massively incredibly…..routine and boring.

Without knowing what aircraft do on a daily/weekly/monthly basis and they’re normal pattern, if they have one, you can’t really say what is significant and what isn’t..

But that didn’t stop somebody French TV this AM trying to analyze last weekends events on the basis of Flightradar records for last weekend only….

Ruddy iPad predictive…”their"

Def Mon at defmon3
Putin needs Wagner for Africa, so he does not want to mess too much with them. But he also want to keep the Shoigu & CO calm so he sends Prigo to Belarus. At this point he is trying to make everyone happy.
This is at least what I think.

There may be a point here.

It's the trying to keep everyone happy that is making him look so weak. He is losing his strong man credibility by the lorry load.

Fuck me he's speaking again! This time at a meeting of the security forces (being reported on Sky). Currently he's thanking them all for not allowing the country to plunge into chaos...... right then.