Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

It’s actually very very worrying and smacks of total desperation.

agreed it smacks of total desperation! (and contempt for his viewers; everyone knows what happened).

Can you explain a bit more about worrying? At this point it just seems laughable to me, but I may be missing something.

The majority of his viewers, the ones targeted by his statements, actually don’t know. Many of them don’t care. A big part just swallow the official line.

That’s why he needs to be seen, to lay out the official line once again.

Unfortunately many people are too busy or just not interested in what’s going on as long as it doesn’t affect them directly. (Unlike us lot.)I think Putin’s performance is all about changing perspective by managing the optics and endorsing his and the military’s status.

Lukashenko confirms arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus

I agree that Putin’s statements need to be viewed from an internal perspective. He’s painting a picture of a government and military in sync that worked together to repel a coup and avert a civil war. If that’s all you’re hearing then I guess it doesn’t look so weak as it does to those that can see it all in the round.

mm I can't help thinking that anyone with any brain cells at all will be observing the course of events, the inconsistencies since the beginning of the war and the hugely shifting lies. They may be too afraid to say anything (and I can understand that) but the more perceptive ones have to know what's going on. Ok there are plenty people without the processing power or basics of critical education to observe the inconsistencies, but certainly not everyone.

I stand by it, Putin is treating them with utter contempt.

There will also be disinformation and PR going on internally within Russia. If the Kremlin were able to interfere with the US elections and influence Brexit, they are very capable of bending the perceptions and stories at home. This could easily be explained as death or exile and the domestic market may be told 75% of Wagner have joined the regular army and 25% are now working for Russia fighting Nazis and terrorists in Africa.

Does he know they've nicked his plane? 🤭

I have a Russian colleague who has lots of family in the Moscow area. She and I chatted this morning about the events over the weekend. She was on the phone with various family members as everything unfolded. No one was buying anything in Putin's speech about the coup being defeated by Russians coming together. No one lifted a finger to protect Putin, and everyone knows it. His pardoning Progozhin after accusing him of treason is also a huge embarrassment for him.

The spin doesn't seem to be working inside Russia any better than it has outside Russia.

That's really interesting.

I guess part of the issue is that Putin is a one trick pony so doesn't really have any option but to double down and lie.

That is so heartening to read and one can only hope that this level of understanding is increasing among ordinary Russians. We live in a time when it gets less and less possible for despotic dictators to keep the population in ignorance. And so many Russians have great connections with people in democratic societies.
Tick tock, Mr Putin, time's up.

I'm watching the documentary about the poisoning of Litvinenko, following on from last week's docudrama about it – made before the events of the last few days, of course.

In it, Luke Harding describes Putin as having "a peculiar and vengeful fascination with traitors. He feels personally betrayed by them."

And that's in regard to someone as comparatively distant as Litvinenko, not someone who was Vlad's personal friend and longterm close collaborator like Vlad's Chef.

so while they haven’t lifted a finger to protect Putin and no one is buying his lies, what are they actually doing about the whole mess? Nothing. I the Russian society as a whole, whole being sick and tired of Putin and not believing in this was, are doing big fat nothing to stop this.

A tiny minority of the population are doing something but overwhelmingly people of Russia are just passively waiting for someone else to do something.

My distant relatives from Moscow at the start of the war (my father’s Cousins) to my Ukrainian family in Donetsk and Kyiv at the time - “just bear with, soon everything will be fine”
my Ukrainian family “how do you mean, when will everything be fine?”
Russian relatives “just as soon as Donetsk is liberated”
Ukrainian relatives then ended any contact with their ru cousins

these Ru relatives are well educated people who have been to Ukraine many times… my hope of them ever seeing any sense is long gone

@Mb76
I share your despair, however perhaps it is easier to take part in demonstrations and, perhaps, ultimately, civil disobedience without fear of summary incarceration in a democratic country than in a terrorist, dictator state.

Some posts elsewhere on MN – suddenly all angsty about machine guns in Moscow and Muscovites potentially getting hurt – certainly had an air of "People were shooting at him! Him, whom everyone loved!"

I wonder if this sudden irruption of violence from distant TV images onto the streets of the capital will make this war rather more real for some Russians?

That's good to hear, although of course Russians with family members outside of Russia that they keep regular contact with will be better informed than those without, so easier for them to realise the bullshit.

I not sure what people are expecting ordinary Russians to do in such a repressed society.

It's all or nothing, there's little point in being imprisoned for decades for waving a placard and your family suffer the societal consequences of your traitorous actions.

There's a tipping point of course where grassroots rebellion cannot be ignored but my feeling is that is a long way off. Putin will probably stumble on for a while until the yes men he's surrounded himself with suddenly say no and a replacement will emerge from the shadows...much as Putin did when he was installed.

@Surplus2requirements Agreed. No one dare protest if they have families. There is an unbearably sad clip of FSB arresting a man who is trying to shield his small daughter from them with his body. She'd made a drawing "No to War" at school and was being taken away.

That’s my point exactly. One person, a small number of progressive thinking individuals can’t do anything, they will be crushed, thrown t prison or worse to be made examples of… their whole society needs to be proactive if they want change. They need to do it, themselves. It feels like even now, they are just waiting for someone to get rid of Putin

it would be a good start if our Russian truth denying relatives and friends actually understood and acknowledged that Russia is at fault here. Sadly these cases are rare from what I hear. Hence my lack of hope.

Ukrainian plight for freedom is centuries in the making, not just from Russia but from all other predecessors and most recently their own leaders as the orange Revolutions showed. Russian nationals never had to fight those battles, instead they have been taught that they are the the biggest country in the world and hence the superior nation compared to say Ukraine. Until they rise as a whole nation against their leaders, nothing will change for them.

perhaps I’m not explaining this right, I’ve got Covid 🤧 and brain fog … excuse my ramblings ..

Oh dear @Mb76 sorry to hear you have Covid. I hope it's not too bad a dose. Rest up and get better soon.

@Mb76 sorry you've got covid, I hope you feel better soon.

I do understand the anger towards Russians it's just I think they are so far away from the sort of critical mass needed during the Orange Revolution that many must feel (and be) powerless.

I do think Putin is on borrowed time and maybe if the transition of power goes badly it will act as a catalyst.

I often wonder if Russia's sheer size militates against social change. People are spread out - Moscow and St Petersburg from the provinces and Russia itself from everywhere else. Just 9 people per km across the country compared to 48 per km for India or 153 km for China. That plus a repressive state media and centuries of inertia do not help.

*482 per km for India.
Grrr; typo.

Thank you for the well wishes 🤗… I’m ok just annoyed at catching it in June… we did go to three shows in London last week which is prob where I caught it

thankfully, it’s cooler this week so I am as comfortable as can be.

I do think Putin is on borrowed time and maybe if the transition of power goes badly it will act as a catalyst.

Agree. This is last hope I have for them as a nation ….