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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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221
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2023 18:07

mm, potatoes are also the size and sometimes the shape of grenades .... :D

blueshoes · 03/06/2023 21:49

@MissConductUS thanks for the link to the WSJ Zelensky interview.

I feel for him. He must be so exhausted walking the tight rope.

He must appear grateful for Western support (I am sure he is) whilst frustrated at countries' foot dragging in sending through the arms. He wants to wait for as many weapons/training to arrive to improve success but cannot wait to launch the counteroffensive because time is ticking with the uncertainty of the US elections. He had to advance even whilst Russia has air superiority and Ukraine's dwindling air defence at the price of Ukrainian soldiers' lives.

He strongly believes Ukraine will succeed but does not how how long it will take or how.

China remains as always the wildcard. Appealing to China to do the right thing might as well be pissing in the wind.

blueshoes · 03/06/2023 21:50

Lol at the Luka Bela Tayto

Tullaly2018 · 03/06/2023 23:25

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TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 04/06/2023 08:41

Mb76 · 03/06/2023 17:01

Belarus national Food is potatoes

Belarus is top of the European potato consumption league. Ukraine does pretty well but Belarus is a clear winner.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Chatillon · 04/06/2023 08:50

Good to see the UN FAO has correctly colour coded Crimea!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 11:27

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I noticed that but hadn't put it together. I wonder if Russia will play ball with them?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 11:43

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely hoping to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership and downplay his ongoing conflict with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut.
  • Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command.
  • A Russian Duma Deputy stated during a public forum on June 1 that Russia has failed to accomplish any of its articulated goals for the β€œspecial military operation” in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and northwest and south of Kreminna.
  • Regular Russian forces have likely largely relieved Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.
  • Russian forces focused offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line near Marinka.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to establish defensive positions in Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian military leadership is attempting to create and staff new military formations.
  • Likely Ukrainian partisans assassinated a Russian collaborator in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

[ I'll repeat that:

Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. So, Putin is now faced with the threat of a non-Russian army operating inside his borders. That Prigozhin thinks he can make this threat makes it look to me like Putin's very weak now]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 13:20

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Air Force: Russian cruise missiles hit operational airfield (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-russian-cruise-missiles-strike-operational-airfield/) near Kropyvnytskyi.
Two Russian missiles struck an active Ukrainian airfield near Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast on June 4, according to Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat. [no further info]

⚑️Land Forces chief says (https://kyivindependent.com/land-forces/) Russia continues to suffer 'significant' losses in Bakhmut.
Russia continues to suffer "significant losses" in Bakhmut, Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's Land Forces, reported on June 3 following a visit with frontline troops in the embattled city.

⚑️Danilov: Ukraine lost 7.5 times fewer troops than Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/danilov-ukraine-lost-7-5-times-fewer-troops-than-russians-in-bakhmut/) in Bakhmut.
Ukraine's losses in the Battle of Bakhmut were lower than Russia's by a factor of 7.5, National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksiy Danilov told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. [a rare comment on Ukr losses]

⚑️Maliar: Russia rotating (https://kyivindependent.com/malyar-russia-rotating-frontline-troops-but-wagner-still-in-bakhmut/) frontline troops but Wagner still in Bakhmut.

⚑️ Exiled mayor: At least 6 explosions heard (https://kyivindependent.com/official-explosion-reported-on-railways-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast/) near occupied Melitopol.
One of the explosions was reported at a nearby railway, which Russian forces had reportedly been using to transport military equipment and personnel.

⚑️Update: Two-year-old girl killed (https://kyivindependent.com/update/), 22 injured in Russian missile attack near Dnipro.

⚑️Drone reportedly shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-drone-shot-down-in/) in Russian-occupied Crimean city.

⚑️Interior Ministry: 20% of bomb shelters across Ukraine unsuitable (https://kyivindependent.com/interior-ministry-20-of-bomb/) for use.
Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on June 3 that law enforcement checked over 4,800 bomb shelters across Ukraine, and about 20% proved to be unsuitable for use. 252 were closed, and 893 were "unsuitable for use," according to Klymenko.

⚑️Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast withhold insulin (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-occupied-zaporizhzhia/) to residents who refuse Russian passports.

⚑️Kherson military administration official accused (https://kyivindependent.com/kherson-military-administration-official-accused-of-serving-russia-during-occupation/) of serving Russia during occupation.

⚑️Kremlin bans (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-kremlin-bans-russian-journalist/) Western journalists from Russian Economic Forum.

⚑️Spokesperson: Washington more focused (https://kyivindependent.com/spokeswoman-washington-more-focused-on-military-than-nato-accession-for-ukraine/) on military aid than NATO accession for Ukraine.

⚑️Foreign Ministry slams (https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministry-slams-hungarian-government-for-ukraine-map-without-crimea/) Hungarian government for Ukraine map without Crimea. [I don't list all the to-and-fro with Hungary but there's a lot of it]

⚑️UK Defense Ministry: Russia 'likely less flexible (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-likely-less-flexible-in-reacting-to-operational-challenges-after-bakhmut/)in reacting to operational challenges' after Bakhmut.
Russia is "likely to be less flexible in reacting to operational challenges" after suffering heavy casualties and enormous weapon expenditure in Bakhmut, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on June 3.

⚑️ Dutch defense minister: Chinese diplomat's view (https://kyivindependent.com/chinas-view-on-ukraine-very-false-says-dutch-defense-minister/) on Ukraine 'very, very false.'
In an interview with Politico on June 3, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren dismissed a Chinese diplomat's claim that Russia’s war against Ukraine was caused by the so-called failure of Europe's security architecture.
Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese envoy to the U.S., claimed that Europe has displayed little success in ensuring its security, alleging this contributed to Russia's war.

⚑️UK Defense Ministry: 'Paranoid' Russian officials crack down on blue and yellow colors (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-intel-paranoid-russian-officials-crack-down-on-blue-and-yellow-symbols/) in public.
Russia is sporadically cracking down on people wearing blue and yellow, interpreting it as symbolism in support of Ukraine, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry's June 4 intelligence update.

The shaping continues.
AT ragnarbjartur
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUN 4: β– strikes down between days, repelled attacks stay low (20+) β–  Troop losses expected to reach 200,000 today β–  Double-digit artillery, vehicle, drone & APV losses β–  Oryx update (includes older losses) [I think he means 210,000]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Tullaly2018 · 04/06/2023 13:21

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 13:31

Reassuring - sort of. Patrushev's reputation is not good - Ill have to look Zolotov up. (My knowledge is patchy and very often superficial, I just pass reports on and sometimes have an opinion / interpretation based on my own area; it's 20 years ago I did some politics!)

Because of that, I would never have believed 2 years ago that Russia would invade two years ago. I guess I'm not sure how solid the stability in Russia is; the erosion of an independent judicary and the economic plundering has made me wonder if the deep foundations are badly cracked.

I suppose a lot of it will depend on what the Security Services will do? They seem to have the firmest grasp of all on Russian society.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 13:32

Washington Post Telegram

Britain’s defense chief, a contender to run NATO, lays out his vision

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/02/ben-wallace-nato-secretary-general/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)LULEA, Sweden β€” NATO must compel its member nations to grow their military spending if the alliance is to deter Russia effectively beyond the war in Ukraine and manage other threats to transatlantic security, Britain’s defense chief said, outlining his ambitions for the bloc’s future as it considers its next leader.

β€œThe world is getting more dangerous, more insecure and more anxious, and the next secretary general has to be able to deliver that funding to make sure that that is never taken off the boil,” Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in an interview this week.

Wallace, who has guided Britain’s efforts to arm Ukraine, most recently by expanding Kyiv’s battlefield reach with Storm Shadow cruise missiles, called for a more informative NATO, one that more persuasively educates voters about threats such as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to defy international borders.

Tullaly2018 · 04/06/2023 13:41

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 13:43

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The heads of more than 20 special services in different countries held a secret meeting during a security conference in Singapore. Among other things, they discussed the war in Ukraine, β€” Reuters.
Five people familiar with the course and content of the meeting told journalists on condition of anonymity that representatives of India, the USA, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and other countries were among those present at the discussions. It should also be noted that despite the tension in relations with the US, a representative of Chinese intelligence took part in the meeting.
The sources, without revealing details, reported that the main topics of the dialogue were the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, cybercrime, and transnational crime. It is reported that the meeting occurred "in an atmosphere of cooperation, not confrontation."
The agency noted that representatives of several governments either denied the fact of the meeting or avoided answering. In particular, sources claim that Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Gavrylov was present there, but this has been officially denied.

Ukraine's counteroffensive will be very powerful, β€” US General David Petraeus

The instigator of the war is Putin, he invaded Ukraine with 200,000 soldiers, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz harshly responded to critics of arms supplies to Ukraine.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov met with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the Shangri La Dialogue security summit. Deputy Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Gavrylov said China offered to use "all means" to end the war. He also noted that China is ready to expand contacts between the Ukrainian and Chinese military leadership.

China is not going to stop and may send another "peacekeeping mission", β€” Reuters with reference to the special representative of the People's Republic of China Li Hui.

President Zelenskyy is ready to fly to Latin America to show the leaders there that Putin is worthless.
"It is very difficult for me to do this during the war. But I'm ready. I am ready to fly, I want to communicate with them. Your people, your society trusts its leaders.
And if I talk to you, stay with you, we will see in detail who Putin is and that he is not so great," Zelenskyy said in an interview with Latin American media.

Head of European diplomacy Borrell and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup discussed Ukraine's ammunition needs.
"A good meeting at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum. They shared concerns about the ongoing provocations by the DPRK and discussed Ukraine's needs. We are working together to build a new partnership in the field of security and defense," said Josep Borrell.

In Indonesia, they advised to hold referendums on the territories occupied by Russia.
Such a "peace plan" was proposed by the Minister of Defense of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto. He calls for an immediate ceasefire and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the current fighting line and a "referendum". [Perhaps he should have pushed for a ceasefire and a referendum during the Tamil Tigers' fight for freedom]

I will try to be polite, but this plan is more similar to the Russian one than to the Indonesian one, β€” Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov about the "peace initiative" of Indonesia.

The Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor OrbΓ‘n, wanted to kiss Maia Sandu’s hand. It’s just that at the moment he bent down for this gesture, Maia Sandu pulled her hand away, refusing the Hungarian leader’s wish.

Moscow did not even exist yet when Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv was already standing. Over a thousand years, it experienced everythingβ€”enemy raids, wars, occupation, revolutions.

Army aviation training is a very complex process. It involves advanced aviation shooters who must accurately determine the target and timely transmit its coordinates to the pilot-operator for targeting and destruction, the engineering and technical staff who prepare the aircraft for flights, as well as pilots who must be ready to perform tasks 24 hours a day any weather conditions

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 13:52

Thank you @Tullaly2018

Do you happen to know if/how the Rosgvardia losses, which are reputed to be considerable, has affected his situation?

Clearly talking about a future successor to Putin will go more on personality perhaps backed up with a velvet-covered iron fist, but presumably war-outcomes will also affect his standing.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 14:09

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion continue their operation in the Belgorod region of Russia. They report active fighting in the area of Novaya Tavolzhanka and the entry of their assault groups into the suburbs of Shebekino.

The Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion are ready to hand over the captured soldiers in exchange for a personal meeting with the governor of Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
In a video message, the Russians invited Gladkov to a church in Nova Tavolzhanka, provided that he arrives in an ambulance accompanied only by the driver and unarmed.
They want to talk to him about the situation in the region, "its future and the future of Russia as a whole."

The night in Russia's Belgorod region passed with the sound of explosions. The region and its administrative center were attacked by drones. The authorities have not yet said anything about this.

Terrorist Girkin says the RVC could have reached Bilhorod outskirts easily if 8-9 battalions were deployed instead of one, demonstrating critical weakness in the Russian defence. Hence, Girkin says, attacks of recent days are no more than distracting strikes to pull away some of Russian reserves that could be used to defend the main strike point.

The Ministry of Defense said that more than 60,000 women are defending Ukraine, more than 42,000 of them are members of the Armed Forces.
In early May, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that five thousand women were fighting on the front line. 107 women have already been killed in action.

Plans like silence, there will be no announcement of the start - Defense Ministry of Ukraine.

Russian reporter Sladkov, who is known for his reassuring posts, says the Russian army is completely lacking counter-battery fire, and notifies of "unpleasant events" in Zaporizhzhia direction, a place where an important Ukrainian strike might occur during the counter-offensive. He says Ukrainian artillery is better than the Russian.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
blueshoes · 04/06/2023 14:19

The secret meeting of 20 special services at a security conference in Singapore supposedly atteneded by India, the USA, UK, Canada, Australia also had Chinese intelligence attending. I imagine the Chinese attendee will be on speed dial with his Russian counterpart.

As for China offering to use "all means" to end the war and to send another "peacekeeping mission", I cannot help but feel that China feels that the Ukraine war is a proxy for the Taiwanese invasion. That is why they are desperate for Russia to keep its occupied territories in Ukraine and to freeze the conflict at the current frontlines ahead of the offensive.

Tullaly2018 · 04/06/2023 14:25

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 15:05

I’m finding it hard to believe that it’s coming, but of course, OPSEC needs to be maintained and some have even stated that the shelling of Shebekino is some sort of drawing out of forces from foxholes before a mechanised assault begins elsewhere.

Eh, of course it's coming. Ukraine won't have been getting all that hardware for nothing. The writing was on the wall many weeks ago that they'd be waiting for early June for hardware, and also the ground to dry out.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 18:38

@MagicFox pm'd you =)

Igotjelly · 04/06/2023 18:41

I’ve not missed another troll have I!?

MissConductUS · 04/06/2023 19:06

Igotjelly · 04/06/2023 18:41

I’ve not missed another troll have I!?

Same as the old troll.

L1ttledrummergirl · 04/06/2023 19:17

None for months, and then is it 3 or 4 in athe last week. I sense something may be afoot.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2023 19:21

It isn't 3 or 4 separate ones.

MagicFox · 04/06/2023 19:32

It's because we're all doing good work

OP posts: