Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The IAEA has a "viable" solution for the ZNPP, – Grossi
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that he had been thinking for a long time about how to organize the safe operation of the station occupied by the Russians.
He noted that it is not about a political solution to the conflict but about ensuring nuclear security.

Putin went all-in: Danilov on the attack of the Russian fighter jet on the US drone
"The incident with the American UAV MQ-9 Reaper, provoked by Russia in the Black Sea, is a signal of Putin's readiness to expand the conflict zone with the involvement of other parties."
Putin uses an all-in tactic — he constantly raises the stakes in the face of a strategic loss in the hope of changing circumstances.

Brent oil continues to fall in price rapidly, the price is already below 75 dollars per barrel, — data from the ICE exchange

US military remotely destroys 'confidential software' from MQ-9 Reaper drone
This was reported by CNN correspondent Natasha Bertrand citing sources.

The European Athletics Association plans to refrain from returning Russians and Belarusians to tournaments.

NATO members are ready to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems, armored vehicles and ammunition

❗️ Sweden transfers 10 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Norway – 2 NASAMS air defense systems, said the head of the Pentagon at a briefing.

Israel has agreed to a possible sale to Ukraine of anti-UAV systems to combat Russian barrage munitions, – Axios
This is the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The NASDAQ exchange plans to delist the securities of a number of large Russian companies
We are talking about Yandex, Ozon, Qiwi, and HeadHunter.
After delisting, the company's securities will not be able to be traded on this exchange.

Ankara is ready to let American ships pass through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to retrieve the wreckage of a drone in the Black Sea, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said. [too bloody late]

Italian intelligence informed the country's government that Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Medvedev ordered the "Wagner" PMC to kill Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto for $15 million, — Il Foglio [no idea how good a newspaper Il Foglio is]

US President Biden told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Washington has no desire to lower the cap price for Russian oil, — WSJ citing sources
The G7 countries want to keep the cap price at $60 per barrel.

President Zelenskyy met with philanthropist and entrepreneur Lauren Jobs, widow of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs

Britain is considering offering its fourth-generation Eurofighter Typhoon fighters to those countries that agree to transfer Soviet-made MiGs to Ukraine, British Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey said, Breaking Defense reports.

The Kremlin approved the aggression against the American drone over the Black Sea, — mass media
The goal was to knock the drone off course or disable its surveillance capabilities, as intelligence sources told NBC News. It is likely that the Russian fighter accidentally hit the propeller of the drone. This could have happened due to a pilot error.
The decision to attack the MQ-9 Reaper was made "at the highest level."

We have already developed and presented a concept to the German government, — Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, about constructing a tank plant in Ukraine
The general director of Rheinmetall emphasized that the decision to start construction of the plant should be made exclusively by Kyiv.

Prime Minister of Latvia Krišjānis Kariņš arrived in Kyiv

As a result of the explosion in the building of the border management of the Federal Security Service in Rostov-on-Don, two people were injured, – Russian Media

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has two scenarios, – Politico
According to the publication, the USA is actively providing assistance to Ukraine and is considering two scenarios:

▫️ The first – the Armed Forces of Ukraine will move from the north to the east, and then to the south, thus cutting the land corridor of Russia. This scenario is considered more likely.

▫️ The second scenario – the Ukrainian army immediately moves south through Kherson towards the occupied Crimea. However, the problem here is that Russian troops are entrenched east of the Dnipro, and Ukraine lacks manpower to conduct amphibious operations.

Ukraine needs munitions, and it is necessary to achieve a joint European procurement initiative, – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a speech in the Bundestag
Scholz said that EU countries intend to agree on steps to provide Ukraine with ammunition promptly at the summit on March 23-24.

⚡️The first French AMX 10-RC tanks arrived in Ukraine, — the Minister of Defense of France
Part of the equipment has already been sent to the front line.

The Russians recognized that the city of Popasna in the Luhansk Region no longer exists, – the Luhansk Regional State Administration
In the "LPR" the occupiers put into effect the so-called laws "On administrative and territorial organization". Popasna is not on any list of settlements.
Earlier, the occupiers claimed that it was impractical to restore the city, as it was utterly destroyed. [Russki Mir, eh?]

A year ago today, Russia bombed the Mariupol Theatre where between 300 - 900 women and children were hiding.
There were very few survivors.
Since then Russia has held a concert there and filmed a Russian violinist dancing and playing on the ruins.
Now they are bulldozing the remains without removing the dead, with plans to rebuild.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Luxembourg-based space company Spacety Luxembourg S.A. is suspected of transmitting satellite images for the needs of the Wagner PMC in January this year. According to Euractiv, the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have already appealed to the prosecutor's office. They believe that the company has also violated EU sanctions.
Spacety Luxembourg S.A. is a subsidiary of China's Spacety China, which is blacklisted by the US Treasury. It also provided satellite imagery to the Wagner PMC.

India urges G20 to distract from war in Ukraine
At the G20 summit, India's Amitabh Kant called on the world not to focus on "one war" but to address more important issues, such as global poverty.
"The world has to move on, and Europe has to find solutions to its challenges," Kant said.

Türkiye will fulfill its promise of Finnish membership in NATO, Erdogan said on the eve of the Finnish president's visit.
According to sources, the Turkish parliament is likely to ratify Finland's application by mid-April.

The SBU detained two women from Kramatorsk who were passing information to the Russians about the positions of Ukrainian troops near Bakhmut. The women also recorded the results of shelling and corrected the repeated attacks. One of them is an active nurse of a combat unit of the Territorial Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The women were arrested.

🇵🇱Poland will hand over four MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine in the coming days, President Andrzej Duda said.

After talks in Kremlin, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad says he recognizes Ukrainian territories seized by Russia as "Russian"

Yesterday, Kholod wrote that Russian users on Pornhub were seeing an advertisement calling for them to join the Wagner PMC. At the end of the video, a phone number is given, which can be found on VKontakte under posts agitating to go to war as a mercenary.
Daily Storm contacted the press service of the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and he responded: "Advertising Wagner PMC on porn sites is a very good idea of our marketers. I agree with them absolutely completely, and this ad says: "Go fight in the Wagner PMC, stop masturbating". Who doesn't agree with this statement?"

Russian ammunition depot explodes near captured Mariupol, city council reports

🇩🇪 Germany has handed over five thousand 155-mm artillery shells, high-precision ammunition, missiles for MARS II, two forklifts, four mobile antenna systems, as well as 25 generators and 500 SFP9 pistols to Ukraine.

The location of air defenses near Moscow to defend against 'terrorists' (because terrorists always have an air fleet, dontyaknow) seems to be creating a backlash. Since Russia's constantly feeding its population with the line that "the West is trying to destroy Russia and we're in a desperate fight for our lives against Western aggression" and it seems that likely most Russians swallow this, a backlash tends to indicate that at least some Russians don't feel threatened at all. Anything said against the military and their decisions can have Consequences, so it's not nothing to speak up against these emplacements.

The latest Rammstein meeting didn't make many waves but it seems that the commitment to supporting Ukraine is still solid.

The concern over the plot to destabilize Moldova seems to be growing.

With the claims that the decision to knock down the drone was made at the highest levels, and the claims that Moscow has recovered the wreckage, this incident has the potential to escalate, I think. Imo it should, in a measured way; Russia works by greater and greater provocations and this isn't a small one.

Reports are filtering through that tanks are starting to reach Ukraine and even the front lines. This could mean the beginning of counteroffensives?

Poland has handed over 4 MIGS and will be handing over more as the year progresses.

Reports are filtering through that tanks are starting to reach Ukraine and even the front lines. This could mean the beginning of counteroffensives?

Unlikely. They'll want to organize them into large formations with infantry, sings the combined arms song under her breath, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, etc. and then make one or more large, decisive attacks.

Ah, right - of course! you have said that before =))

:-)

They'll also want to wait until the mud dries enough to allow vehicles to maneuver off the paved roads. They're probably still stockpiling ammunition and doing combined arms training.

The wait will be worth it. A premature offensive wouldn't give them a decisive victory.

The Economist has joined the WSJ in giving DeSantis a right bollocking (did I say that right?) over his comments on Ukraine.

www.economist.com/leaders/2023/03/16/floridas-governor-has-blundered-over-ukraine

I have a free five articles a month ID for the Economist, but if you can't access the article, I'll copy and paste it here.

Perfectly said

(did I say that right?)

All right and too right!

Sorry to drag the thread back, but that drone footage is fascinating. The video quality is amazing too. I've been very impressed with how measured and calm the Biden administration has been about the incident, I wonder what their next move will be.

The closest allies to Russia chart is fascinating too. I was quite horrified to see India ranking so highly. I know there is a significant and welcome Indian diaspora in the UK, but I still can't see why the UK is so desperate to forge closer and closer links to a nation that's potentially (and actually?,) acting against UK+allies interests.

Sorry to drag the thread back, but that drone footage is fascinating. The video quality is amazing too. I've been very impressed with how measured and calm the Biden administration has been about the incident, I wonder what their next move will be.

I strongly suspect that the video made public was a degraded, lower resolution version of the original. It was initially announced that it would be released soon as there were declassification issues. The cameras are intended to capture images of the ground, thousands of feet below the cruising altitude of the drone, so were designed to achieve image resolutions for that purpose.

@CalistoNoSolo I think the Biden administration have done a fantastic job on this whole thing so far.

I agree. And one benefit to the US of this whole sorry situation is that it's restored a bit of America's standing in the world after the unhinged disaster of the Trump years, I think.

@MissConductUS off topic, but I love love love the USA.

Got to say I have a genuine anxiety at the thought of either Trump or DeSantis at the next election 😭

That's lovely to hear, thanks for sharing that. Do you have family here or have you visited the US?

@MissConductUS no family, or I would have been begging for immigration sponsorship 🙂🙂 I have been to New York, California, Las Vegas more times than I can count (got married there - but that’s another story 😐), Florida and Texas. Have a NY trip booked for Jan 2024.

Don't count your politicians before they are nominated. There's a long way to go before either of them lead GOP into the next election and then the voters have to decide.

Having said all of that, if I were Ukraine, I'd be looking for a decisive victory this year. Nothing breeds confidence like success.

@TheABC it feels a bit like it's not going well, doesn't it. I keep hanging onto what @MissConductUS has said, that this is the pause time while they are preparing.

@MissConductUS

I strongly suspect that the video made public was a degraded, lower resolution version of the original. It was initially announced that it would be released soon as there were declassification issues.

Possibly, the resolution is at the sort of level you get of a domestic hobby type drone (such as a DJI Mavic), which in itself is pretty impressive for a camera not much than a thimble. The other thing is some of these videos often have symbology on them relevant to data that the spooks might want redacted.

By way of context/comparison (again) those with long memories may remember the coming together of a crewed US intelligence aircraft (an EP-3) and a Chinese fighter which resulted in very serious damage to the EP-3 and loss of the fighter plus pilot, and subsequently all sorts of fun and games for the American crew in the minutes/hours/days that followed.

This sort of business has gone on for years, even well away from active war zones and carries significant risks, especially if the intercepting aircrew over do the aggression and/or simply screw up big time.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident

@CalistoNoSolo

The closest allies to Russia chart is fascinating too. I was quite horrified to see India ranking so highly. I know there is a significant and welcome Indian diaspora in the UK, but I still can't see why the UK is so desperate to forge closer and closer links to a nation that's potentially (and actually?,) acting against UK+allies interests.

Very much agree, but to some extent I feel you've answered your own question - it's not just the historic links there's the whole issue of current business funding/ownership in the UK (especially post Brexit) and other factors that ultimately feeds into votes.

www.telegraphindia.com/business/tata-steel-studying-british-government-support-package/cid/1911691

www.ft.com/content/f4c5f4e7-b1c6-4499-865d-1247f3302f34

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-16-2023
Key Takeaways

The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) appears to be trying to penetrate the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) in a way that is reminiscent of the KGB’s involvement with the Soviet military and industrial base.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that he received a press question exposing a plot spearheaded by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to undermine and “neutralize” the Wagner Group.

Western news agencies confirmed that Chinese companies have sold military and dual-use equipment to unidentified Russian entities. These sales appear small in scale but could alleviate strain on Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) and circumvent Western attempts to limit Russian access to microchips.

Syrian President Bashar Assad used a staged interview with Russian outlet RIA Novosti to amplify notable Russian information operations.

Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Poland will give Ukraine four MiG-29 fighter jets.

Russian’s decision to redeploy elements of its “peacekeeping force” from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine is eroding Russia’s influence with Armenia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long term economic consequences, likely as part of the Kremlin’s effort to prepare Russians for a protracted war.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line and in Western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces increased their naval presence in the Black Sea.

[Expanded further: These sales appear small in scale, concern largely commercial equipment, and — in all but one confirmed case — do not include companies with ties to the Chinese government, according to Politico.[12]]

Shoigu has presented an award (presumably for incompetence) to the pilots of the SU-27 plane involved in the Black Sea drone incident this week. - you honestly couldn't make it up!

Also confirmed that Xi will conduct a state visit to Moscow next week (20-22 March). The presidents will "exchange opinions on major international and regional issues". - echo chamber anyone?