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Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

983 replies

MagicFox · 22/02/2023 15:03

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
145
ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 20:44

Thanks, that makes sense.

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 20:47

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 20:44

Thanks, that makes sense.

You're welcome. I'm glad to help.

Sometimes I feel like the American ambassador to the thread. 😁

MagicFox · 14/03/2023 20:49

@MissConductUS you are! What would we do without you! 🫑

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 21:27

MagicFox · 14/03/2023 20:49

@MissConductUS you are! What would we do without you! 🫑

That's sweet to hear, thank you.

Another scenario that's getting a lot of attention now is that if Trump loses the primaries, he'll run as a third-party candidate and split the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democrat candidate. The Republican party, acutely aware of this risk, will likely bar him from the debates if he doesn't pledge to support the nominee.

It's going to be a very interesting election.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/03/2023 22:23

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 21:27

That's sweet to hear, thank you.

Another scenario that's getting a lot of attention now is that if Trump loses the primaries, he'll run as a third-party candidate and split the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democrat candidate. The Republican party, acutely aware of this risk, will likely bar him from the debates if he doesn't pledge to support the nominee.

It's going to be a very interesting election.

I think his pledge will not be worth the air it is breathed on (or paper it is written on) anyway. He truth, and honour, are neither of them in him. He will simply promise but with not the least intention of keeping his word.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/03/2023 22:24

The truth, drat it!

Surplus2requirements · 14/03/2023 22:35

It sounds more like a ploy/ threat to get the nomination. I can't imagine Trump actually running as a 3rd party because there'd be no hope of winning (or even pretending he'd won).
He's too much a narcissist to take that hit.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 22:40

MagicFox · 14/03/2023 20:49

@MissConductUS you are! What would we do without you! 🫑

Agreed!

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/03/2023 22:40

It would only be to punish the traitors who had dared to defeat him.

Surplus2requirements · 14/03/2023 22:46

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 14/03/2023 22:40

It would only be to punish the traitors who had dared to defeat him.

I guess that's possible, he's actual political allegiances have flip flopped around so much its possible he doesn't actually care what direction the US takes.

Here's to a decisive Ukrainian victory before Trump becomes a serious concern

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/03/2023 07:15

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2023

Key Takeaways

Prominent Russian milbloggers are reamplifying a longstanding Russian information operation that seeks to weaponize religion to discredit Ukraine.

Russian authorities continue measures to mobilize the struggling Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war effort.

Russian Su-27 jets forced down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea in international airspace.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated on March 14 that Poland could supply MiG-29 multirole fighters to Ukraine within four-to-six weeks.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continue building defenses along Russia’s border with Ukraine in order to pin Ukrainian troops to northern border areas.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces advanced within Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continue fortifying rear areas in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak announced on March 14 that the Russian State Duma will consider a law simplifying the legal recognition of missing Russian soldiers as dead.

Ukrainian partisans injured the Deputy Head of the Nova Kakhovka Occupation Military Administration in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack.

Expansion:
The incident [downing of the drone] will not cause an escalation to direct conflict between Russia and the US.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
MagicFox · 15/03/2023 07:26

Interesting article on the sino-Russian relationship from a Chinese perspective: www.pekingnology.com/p/feng-yujun-on-russian-history-culture?utm_campaign=post

Key points: russia benefits and promotes tension between the US and China, China must figure out how to balance the two. Interesting stuff on the history of the partnership and China's unnecessary subservience to russia because of their history

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 15/03/2023 08:18

As with when the polish missile incident happened the drone downing has shown that diplomacy and cool heads still exist which is reassuring. The BBC Global News Podcast spoke about the unusually unaggressive tone of the Russian response, clearly shitting themselves (again) about direct confrontation with the US.

notimagain · 15/03/2023 08:22

@MissConductUS

I wonder if the Reapers might get a fighter escort for a while as a deterrent. @notimagain?

Sorry for the delay but I'm TDY firefighting grade A tin foil hattery on the MH370 thread....

I'll try and give this some thought later.

Natsku · 15/03/2023 09:38

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 20:47

You're welcome. I'm glad to help.

Sometimes I feel like the American ambassador to the thread. 😁

You certainly are! And grateful for it, interesting and helpful to get the American perspective.

Natsku · 15/03/2023 09:39

And all the military info you give us

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/03/2023 09:47

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Minister: Two more countries join (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/minister-two-more-countries-join-core-group-on-special-tribunal-for-russian-crime-of-aggression) Core Group on Special Tribunal for Russian crime of aggression.
"Thirty-two states are now working together to hold Russia's top political and military leadership accountable. Putin and his associates will stand trial," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

⚑️Bloomberg: Russia saved $80 billion (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-russia-saved-80-billion-in-foreign-assets-in-year-under-sanctions) in foreign assets in year under sanctions.
Over the first year of its all-out war against Ukraine, Russia accumulated nearly a third of its profits from commodity exports abroad, creating a new potential target for Western sanctions, Bloomberg reported on March 14.

⚑️Russia's State Duma increases (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russias-state-duma-increases-punishments-for-discrediting-russian-military) punishments for 'discrediting' Russian military.
The new punishments include a fine of up to five million rubles (about $66,450), five years of correctional or forced labor (or seven years for "repeated discrediting that led to dangerous consequences"), as well as a sentence of 15 years in prison.

⚑️Reuters: Russian soldiers sexually abused (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-russian-soldiers-sexually-abused-a-4-year-old-child-raped-her-mother-in-kyiv-oblast) 4-year-old child, raped her mother in Kyiv Oblast.

⚑️Poland may send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poland-to-send-mi-g-29-jets-to-ukraine-within-next-4-6-weeks) MiG-29 jets to Ukraine within next 4-6 weeks.

⚑️Zelensky holds meeting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-holds-meeting-of-commander-in-chiefs-staff-discusses-bakhmut) of commander-in-chief's staff, discusses Bakhmut.
"After considering the defense operation's progress in the Bakhmut area, all staff members expressed a common position regarding the further holding and defense of the city of Bakhmut," Ukraine's Presidential Office wrote on March 14

⚑️EU Council increases (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-council-increases-ceiling-for-ukraine-military-aid-fund-by-2-billion-euros) ceiling for Ukraine military aid fund by 2 billion euros.

⚑️Top Defense Ministry official arrested for accepting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/top-ukrainian-defense-ministry-official-arrested-for-accepting-bribe) $9,000 bribe.

⚑️SBU obtains (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-obtains-russian-suspect-plotting-to-assassinate-ukrainian-officials-activists) Russian suspect plotting to assassinate Ukrainian officials, activists.
An individual has been found guilty for plotting the assassinations of Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and a popular Ukrainian activist, Ukraine's Security Service reported.

⚑️Russian military intensifies (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-military-intensifies-mobilization-efforts-in-occupied-crimea) mobilization efforts in occupied Crimea.
Russian occupying forces are intensifying their mobilization efforts throughout the Crimean peninsula, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported

⚑️Netherlands to deliver (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/netherlands-pledges-2-minehunter-ships-to-ukraine) 2 minehunter ships to Ukraine. According to Reznikov, the transfer of the ships is planned to be carried out by 2025 and Ukrainian sailors will begin training "in the near future."

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Bihus.Info finds another Defense Ministry contract with inflated food prices

⚑️Politico: US senators from both parties pressing Pentagon (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-us-senators-from-both-parties-pressing-pentagon-to-send-f-16-s-to-ukraine) to send F-16s to Ukraine.
A bipartisan group of eight senators is pressing the Pentagon chief to provide more information on what is needed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, Politico reported on March 14, citing a senators' letter to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Almost a thousand again. If they take Bakhmut, the price is going to be so high.

Sources: KSE, NBU, Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, data as of Jan. 2023.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
notimagain · 15/03/2023 10:02

Right back for a breather then other domestics to do...

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

The Russian army began to use "electronic" false targets to weaken and confuse Ukrainian air defense, – military expert Aqil Rustamzade
"What's going on? Ukrainian radars lit up with means of radio-electronic warfare. It will take time for Ukrainian anti-aircraft fighters to learn to separate fake targets from real ones,

TBH that's absolutely standard, fairly basic, electronic warfare stuff that dates back to WW2 and the dawn of radar. There are mechanical/electronic counters to those countermeasures, and also operator skills that can help.

Given history I'd be surprised if the Russians have only just started doing this (mind you it's Russia)...I'm sure the UKAF have considered/tried the same.

@MissConductUS

Escort the drones with crewed fighters? Be interesting to see....it can actually be physically quite difficult to escort something, especially slow moving and small at altitude and also be in a position to react quickly to a threat.

I'd also be wondering about ROE, and of course if you are prepared to put crewed aircraft into the mix supporting recce ops why not use manned recce platforms in the first place?

One for the VSOs and politicians.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/03/2023 10:05

UNITED24 Media Telegram

TΓΌrkiye welcomes the continuation of the grain initiative and will work on its expansion, – the statement of the Ministry of Defense

Macron welcomes OrbΓ‘n to Paris to discuss many issues β€” in particular, the French president sought to emphasize the "unity of European countries" regarding the war in Ukraine, "European values" and the rule of law.

Prime Minister of Iceland KatrΓ­n JakobsdΓ³ttir and Head of Foreign Affairs of the country Tordis GilfadΓ³ttir arrived in Ukraine on a visit.

Russia is fighting in Ukraine for its survival and the "Russian world". What Russian President Putin said about Ukraine during his visit to Buryatia

▫️Russia in relations with Ukraine "for decades relied on those who considered themselves part of the "Russian world";

▫️Putin complained about the intensification of the fight against pro-Russian forces in Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity, saying that "after the "coup" their extermination began";

▫️Putin also touched on the topic of the Minsk Agreements, reiterating that the West "deceived and led Russia by the nose", preparing Ukraine for war;

▫️Putin confirmed that the war unleashed by Russia is being waged not only to destroy Ukraine but also to save the Russian Federation itself: "Russia in Ukraine is fighting for the "Russian world", for us, it is a struggle for the survival of statehood."

Ukraine is creating a naval coalition. This coalition already includes at least three countries. The maritime state of Ukraine will develop its fleet. Plus, we are building the Ukrainian fleet in TΓΌrkiye, – Reznikov

The United States plans to contact Russia regarding the incident involving a drone and a fighter jet over the Black Sea, said John Kirby, a US National Security Council representative
US President Joe Biden noted that despite frequent attempts by Russian planes to intercept American planes, the incident with the drone is unique. Biden called the actions of the Russian pilots "dangerous, unprofessional, and reckless."
The command of the US armed forces in Europe confirmed the downing of the reconnaissance UAV MQ-9 Reaper.
According to the military, the drone and two Su-27 fighter jets were flying over the international waters of the Black Sea when one of the Russian planes deliberately flew in front of the UAV.

NATO member countries have been informed about the incident involving the collision of a drone and a fighter jet over the Black Sea, β€” Reuters with reference to sources

Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad arrived in Moscow.
Tomorrow, March 15, al-Assad plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The agenda of the negotiations has not yet been announced.

A new "Ramstein format" meeting will occur tomorrow, – Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov

The NSDC refutes The Washington Post's information about the deterioration of the quality of the Ukrainian army due to the loss of skilled fighters, which endangers the spring counteroffensive.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for the first time after returning to office held an internal discussion on the issue of military aid to Ukraine, β€” The Times of Israel with reference to the Prime Minister's office

In Lithuania, the volunteer organization Blue/Yellow has already purchased tactical radars for the Armed Forces for €14 million and started training the Ukrainian military to use them, β€” Delfi
One radar installation costs about €1 million.

South Korea and Poland agreed on joint participation in reconstructing Ukraine, β€” Yonhap

❗️Denmark has agreed to create a fund for economic and military aid to Ukraine in the amount of $1 billion, the Ministry of Finance of Denmark reported.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/03/2023 10:18

Live Ukraine Telegram

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that the likelihood of Finland joining NATO separately from Sweden has increased.

πŸ‡±πŸ‡ΉLithuanian Seimas recognizes Wagner PMC as a terrorist organization - BNS.

Head of the Russian Orthodox Church Kirill Gundyaev complained about Ukraine to various institutions and international organizations, including the Pope, as the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra Reserve terminated the agreement with the UOC-MP monastery and asked the monks to leave the territory by March 29.

In Tbilisi, pro-Russian activists tore down and burned the EU flag near the parliament building. They are shouting slogans against "foreign agents" and people who are allegedly trying to involve Georgia in the war. The protesters demand a referendum on the draft law on "foreign agents"

Polish Special Forces guaranteed the safety of Ukraine's representatives at talks with Russia in Brest, Belarus, in late February and early March 2022, and also guarded Russian oligarch Abramovich during negotiations in the first weeks of the war - Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

Morocco will replace Ukraine in the bid to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup with Spain and Portugal.

Occupiers in Mariupol are preparing for an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine
This was reported by the Mariupol City Council.
"Russian builders were removed from Mariupol and transferred to the field to build fortifications in the Mariupol district. The occupiers are also urgently digging trenches along the Mariupol-Donetsk highway. They are preparing for an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the statement said. [mind you since they're digging trenches around flipping Moscow, not sure how far the trenches here really indicate an imminent threat]

Igotjelly · 15/03/2023 11:07

Sorry a bit of an aside but thought you might be interested. The Rest Is Politics podcast are doing an Iraq anniversary special. Absolutely fascinating to hear Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart talking about how we got to where we were with Iraq (including the intelligence etc.)

MissConductUS · 15/03/2023 12:57

notimagain · 15/03/2023 10:02

Right back for a breather then other domestics to do...

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

The Russian army began to use "electronic" false targets to weaken and confuse Ukrainian air defense, – military expert Aqil Rustamzade
"What's going on? Ukrainian radars lit up with means of radio-electronic warfare. It will take time for Ukrainian anti-aircraft fighters to learn to separate fake targets from real ones,

TBH that's absolutely standard, fairly basic, electronic warfare stuff that dates back to WW2 and the dawn of radar. There are mechanical/electronic counters to those countermeasures, and also operator skills that can help.

Given history I'd be surprised if the Russians have only just started doing this (mind you it's Russia)...I'm sure the UKAF have considered/tried the same.

@MissConductUS

Escort the drones with crewed fighters? Be interesting to see....it can actually be physically quite difficult to escort something, especially slow moving and small at altitude and also be in a position to react quickly to a threat.

I'd also be wondering about ROE, and of course if you are prepared to put crewed aircraft into the mix supporting recce ops why not use manned recce platforms in the first place?

One for the VSOs and politicians.

That is a good point on the speed differential making an escort mission difficult. The Russians deny any contact between the two aircraft. I don't imagine the USAF is very happy about the loss of the Reaper. If the Russians try the same thing again that would be very provocative.

You're doing a sterling job fighting the batshittery on the MH370, by the way. When I saw someone attributing to a dastardly plot on the part of the US I had to add my two pence to the discussion.

notimagain · 15/03/2023 13:19

Yep, it's whack a mole time again.......

One of my very few claims to almost fame was, in the days immediately MH disappeared, being asked (via a third party) if I'd be willing to be a "aviation expert" on the radio.....

Fortunately my work contract gave me a get out and in any event I don't think the broadcaster would have appreciated multiple replies of " it's too soon to speculate".

Igotjelly · 15/03/2023 13:57

Just finished watching the Chancellor’s budget, amongst other things Β£11bn increase in defence spending over the next 5 years.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 15/03/2023 13:57

MissConductUS
The Russians deny any contact between the two aircraft.

while the American authorities have apparently said that they have it on a video which they will release shortly, according to the midday news on the steam radio in the car.