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Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

983 replies

MagicFox · 22/02/2023 15:03

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
145
L1ttledrummergirl · 13/03/2023 23:23

But then the British government would be doing something sensible rather than trying to win the game of who can waste the most money.

EdithStourton · 14/03/2023 00:11

Re defence spending and procurement, it's a hard sell in peace time or when your forces have been in engaged in wars far away of dubious legality. People forget that the first duty of the state is to protect its citizens. They also forget that the world is full of bad actors who don't even pretend to play by the rules - it's easy to blame the US for Iraq and close your eyes to all the various threats.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

Natsku · 14/03/2023 06:51

L1ttledrummergirl · 13/03/2023 23:23

But then the British government would be doing something sensible rather than trying to win the game of who can waste the most money.

Far too out of their conform zone to be doing something sensible!

MagicFox · 14/03/2023 07:02

WSJ reports Xi WILL meet with Zelensky (albeit virtually) as well as Putin : www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be

OP posts:
MagicFox · 14/03/2023 07:03

Well, still tentative but it's lol

OP posts:
MagicFox · 14/03/2023 07:03

Oops posted too soon...

Looking like a real possibility that was meant to read

OP posts:
blueshoes · 14/03/2023 08:43

MagicFox · 14/03/2023 07:02

WSJ reports Xi WILL meet with Zelensky (albeit virtually) as well as Putin : www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be

If this meeting with Zelensky takes place, I note that it is after Xi has met with Putin. Since China's peace plan calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries,” what if ... China sees Putin in a bit of a pickle and manages to get Putin to agree to withdraw from Ukraine on condition that Ukraine gives up Crimea. Xi then presents then presents that to Zelensky.

Ever pragmatic, that would kill a lot of birds with one stone, cement China's role as a global power broker, steal a march on the US and resolve the issue of whether to supply arms to Russia at the risk of being sanctioned. China gains a few more years relief to continue to build up.

What would Zelensky do?

This is pure fantasy and speculation of course.

Fladdermus · 14/03/2023 09:40

Russia sending female prisoners to Ukraine due to shortage of men.

metro.co.uk/2023/03/14/putin-sends-women-convicts-to-war-zone-due-to-heavy-losses-of-men-18438026/

Zuffe · 14/03/2023 09:41

More likely Xi will suggest Crimea is neutral, perhaps even an international coalition of peacekeepers that will include China.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 14/03/2023 10:39

Interesting thread from Mick Ryan, which looks at the Russian offensive and reaches the conclusion:

In summary, we could observe that Russia has probably launched its offensive at a time that is disadvantageous for them, and this favours Ukraine. While much remains to be seen in the coming months, Gerasimov’s offensive may actually be rushing his Army to failure.

Whole thread is here:

twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1635523475992633345?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 11:04

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-update-march-13-2023

Key Takeaways

A member of the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of pursuing political objectives in Russia that are endangering Wagner forces in Bakhmut. This attack on Prigozhin is in line with ISW’s March 12 assessment that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be deliberately expending Wagner forces in Bakhmut to derail Prigozhin’s political aspirations.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to maintain Chechnya’s relevance in the Russian political and military sphere.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met with Iranian officials in Tehran on March 13 to expand bilateral cooperation and bolster sanctions mitigations.

Russian milbloggers continue to speculate about a prospective Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, suggesting increasing concern in the Russian information space about Ukrainian combat capabilities as Russian forces pin themselves on offensive operations in Bakhmut.

A Russian State Duma bill aiming to raise the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin is not planning to conduct full mobilization in the future.

The Russian military is reportedly employing the newly created “assault detachments” in different manners across different tactical situations.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk confirmed that Russia has illegally deported 2,161 Ukrainian orphans to Russia.

Russian forces continued ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and made marginal gains northeast of Kupyansk and east of Siversk.

Russian forces continued making advances in and around Bakhmut but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of the city as of March 13.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct raids against areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Subordination of mobilized Russian military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR/LNR) formations is generating increasing discontent.

Russian occupation officials continue to introduce new provisions to discourage and restrict the use of the Ukrainian language in educational facilities.

Extra notes from the full publication:

The Kremlin may be attempting to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of attritional fighting in Ukraine by siloing these impacts among one generational group of Russians. The timeline given for the contraction of the conscription age range may also suggest that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years

Kadyrov appeared visibly nervous during the meeting [with Putin], potentially indicating that he felt considerable pressure to present Chechnya, himself, and his troops to Putin in a positive and productive light.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 11:14

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Reuters: Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-chinese-leader-xi-jinping-plans-to-visit-russia-next-week) to visit Russia next week.

⚡️WSJ: China's Xi Jinping to speak (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wsj-chinas-xi-jinping-to-speak-to-zelensky-after-his-moscow-visit) to Zelensky after his Moscow visit.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to speak with President Volodymyr Zelensky after he meets with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 13, citing people familiar with the issue.
The first conversation between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion is expected to occur online, WSJ wrote.

⚡️Mayor: Wagner forces attempt (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-wagner-forces-attempt-to-recruit-residents-of-occupied-melitopol-to-fight-in-bakhmut) to recruit residents of occupied Melitopol to fight in Bakhmut.
Fedorov, who is in Ukrainian-controlled territory, said Russian troops are offering Melitopol residents 200,000 rubles ($2,650) per month to fight for Russia in Bakhmut.

⚡️Governor: Extended curfew
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-extended-curfew-to-be-introduced-in-kherson-oblast)to be introduced in Kherson Oblast.
Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said an extended curfew will be introduced for five days in the Kherson Oblast.
According to Prokudin, authorities received information about the possible presence of Russian sabotage-reconnaissance groups in the region.

NYT: International Criminal Court to open 2 war crimes cases (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-international-criminal-court-to-open-2-war-crimes-cases-against-russia) against Russia.

⚡️European Council extends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-council-extends-sanctions-against-russia-for-6-months) sanctions against Russia for 6 months.

⚡️Austrian court refuses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/austrian-courts-refuse-to-extradite-bakhmatyuk) to extradite tycoon Oleh Bakhmatyuk to Ukraine.
Bakhmatyuk was arrested by Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court in absentia on March 7 on charges of allegedly giving bribes to Roman Nasirov, the former head of the Federal Tax Service, and his adviser.

⚡️Official: Russia 'ready' to extend (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-ready-to-extend-the-grain-deal-for-60-days) Black Sea grain deal for only 60 days.
Russia is prepared to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative after deliberations with United Nations officials, but only for a period of 90 days, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said on March 13.

⚡️Statistics agency: Ukraine's GDP down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-gdp-falls-by-31-4-in-4th-quarter-of-2022) 31.4% in 4th quarter of 2022.
Ukraine's GDP fell by 31.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to a 30.8% drop in the third quarter, according to the State Statistics Service.

⚡️Moscow Patriarchate refuses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/monks-of-ukrainian-orthodox-church-refuse-to-vacate-kyiv-pechersk-lavra) to vacate premises of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra.

⚡️Survey: 41.4% of respondents think Hungary could make territorial claims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/survey-41-4-of-respondents-think-hungary-could-make-territorial-claims-against-ukraine) against Ukraine.
As many as 41.4% of Ukrainians believe Hungary could make territorial claims against Ukraine, according to an exclusive survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in February.
The survey has been ordered by the Institute for Central European Strategy and obtained by the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine to spend
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky)additional $13.5 billion on defense.

⚡️ Reuters: Ukrainian soldiers complete (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-ukrainian-soldiers-complete-leopard-tank-training-in-spain) Leopard tank training in Spain.

⚡️Serbian minister calls (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/serbian-economic-minister-calls-for-sanctions-against-russia) for sanctions against Russia.
Serbia's Economy Minister Rade Basta on March 13 called on his government to finally impose sanctions against Russia, declaring that they were paying a "high price" for not doing so.

⚡️ Biden administration requests (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/biden-requests-886-billion-defense-budget) $886 billion defense budget.
The Biden administration has requested an $886 billion defense budget, making it the U.S.’ largest peacetime budget request and $28 billion more than last year’s.
The budget request includes a 5.2% increase in pay for troops and a large allocation for research and development, Reuters reported on March 13.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels more than 100 Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-more-than-100-russian-attacks-over-past-24-hours-on-march-13) over past 24 hours.

⚡️Southern Command: Russia's proxies in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast preparing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/southern-command-russias-proxies-in-occupied-parts-of-kherson-oblast-preparing-to-leave) to leave.
Moscow-installed proxies on the east bank of Kherson Oblast prepare to leave the Russian-occupied territories, "taking away documentation and looted things," Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk told Ukrainian Channel 24.

Quite a few pieces of equipment lost.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 11:23

Washington Post Telegram

Ukraine war’s environmental toll will devastate lives for decades (www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-war-environment-impact-disaster/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)
More than 1 million gallons of oil from eight incinerated tanks in KRYVYI RIH seeped into the soil, raising concerns about potential contamination at a nearby drinking water reservoir in this industrial city south of Kyiv
The war has scarred Ukraine’s natural environment — polluting its rivers, contaminating its soil, eviscerating its forests — a circumstance that experts fear could lead to a long-term increase in cancers and other illnesses.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces are continuing to inflict heavy losses on attacking Russian fighters in the besieged front-line city of Bakhmut, where Kremlin-backed mercenaries concede the fight is growing more difficult as they approach the city center, bombarded by artillery and tank fire.

  • Ukraine killed “more than 1,100” Russian fighters in Bakhmut in the past week, Zelensky said in his nightly address, while 1,500 others were put out of action because of the severity of their injuries.
  • The head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group described the situation in Bakhmut as “very difficult.”
  • A captured Ukrainian soldier summarily executed on video by Russian forces was awarded the title of “Hero of Ukraine” by Zelensky.
  • Russian shelling in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv destroyed residential buildings and killed a man and woman in their 40s, regional governor Vitaliy Kim said Monday on Telegram.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Russia agreed to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which aims to prevent a global food crisis by letting Ukraine export vital food sources from its southern coast, “but only for 60 days,” according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin.

  • Russia’s military leadership could be letting the Wagner Group bear the brunt of casualties in the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city to weaken Prigozhin’s political influence within Russia, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank.
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Telegram that its forces killed more than 220 Ukrainian service members in the eastern Donetsk region in the past day and destroyed several combat vehicles and a long-range artillery piece.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 11:33

Zelenskyy Telegram

[summarized] much action in Bilohorivka and Maryinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Kamyanka – and other places where our future is being decided.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The EU does not see Russia's readiness for any peace talks in the war against Ukraine, and without this, any idea of mediation in such talks cannot be realized - European Commission representative Peter Stano

🇲🇩 Moldova's defense minister believes that his country is not in military danger - Chisinau is dealing with a hybrid war started by Russia. According to Anatolie Nosatîi, Russia's goal is to overthrow the legally elected government.

Moscow authorities have started cutting down forests to deploy air defense systems in the Russian capital - The Insider. [I wonder if this is just to persuade Russians there is a danger for propaganda purposes, or if Putin genuinely believes it himself?]

Washington welcomes a possible conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelensky, Biden's national security adviser Sullivan said.

"Vladimir Putin is holding a working meeting with Ramzan Kadyrov." - Notice how he squirms and has to brace his hands on the table. [clip of the two meeting. Kadyrov was nervous, Putin looks like he's in considerable pain]

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the UN has officially recorded 21,965 civilian casualties in Ukraine. Of these, 8,231 people have been killed and 13,734 injured. Among the dead were 3,664 men, 2,173 women and 463 children. The bodies of more than 1,900 civilians are still being identified.
The UN emphasizes that the actual number of victims is much higher.

Russia is increasingly applying the principles of command-and-control economy to its military-industrial complex, which is not able to meet the needs of the front in ammunition - British intelligence.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 14/03/2023 11:44

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russia is increasingly applying the principles of command-and-control economy to its military-industrial complex, which is not able to meet the needs of the front in ammunition - British intelligence.

The situation around Bakhmut remains difficult; the enemy is trying to advance to the center of the city, said the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi

The European Commission's first assessment of Ukraine's fulfillment of the "candidate criteria" will be made public in May, — Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna

Kyiv authorities were close to calling on the population to evacuate, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in an interview with RND
"The worst blackout lasted 14 hours. There was no electricity, no water, and no heating. Fortunately, the weather was warm," Klitschko noted.
According to him, the critical infrastructure of Kyiv survived the winter thanks to the round-the-clock work of energy and utility workers. The German Iris-T SLM air defense system helped protect the infrastructure from enemy attacks.

The Russian army began to use "electronic" false targets to weaken and confuse Ukrainian air defense, – military expert Aqil Rustamzade
"What's going on? Ukrainian radars lit up with means of radio-electronic warfare. It will take time for Ukrainian anti-aircraft fighters to learn to separate fake targets from real ones," Rustamzade summarizes.

Last year, Denmark transferred 20 Harpoon Block 2 anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, – a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The contracts of Rosatom workers brought to the Zaporizhzhia NPP have expired. Still, they are not being sent home, – the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Germany completed the training of Ukrainian crews on Leopard 2 tanks, — Zeit. The trained crews and the tanks will return to Ukraine this month.

It is expected that next week the countries of the European Union will adopt a joint plan for the purchase of ammunition for the Ukrainian army, reports Bloomberg with reference to sources familiar with the discussion.

In the middle of war, Ukraine is building a wind farm, – the Washington Post
The turbines are going up despite Russia’s bombing of the nation’s power infrastructure. Towering wind turbines don’t immediately stand out as unusual on a continent where such machines are becoming part of the landscape. But these were built on sites peppered with bomb shelters, and under the wail of air raid sirens.

The United States has extended the term of the program for refugees from Ukraine (United for Ukraine) for a year, — AP.

Australia will buy up to five US nuclear submarines in the coming years to replace its aging fleet of diesel submarines, then work with Britain and the US to build a new nuclear submarine, – Reuters

The US breaks the record of negative attitude towards Russia, — Gallup research
The number of Americans who have a negative view of Russia has reached an all-time high of 90%, with 59% of them having a "very negative" opinion.
Most respondents (56%) believe the war between Russia and Ukraine seriously threatens vital US interests.

US President Joe Biden said he plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon

The European Union has started working on its law on "foreign agents", – Politico with reference to its own sources
The article states that the law requires public organizations to disclose their funding sources, which are carried out from outside the EU.
The publication reports that the draft law preparation is currently at an early stage and will be completed no earlier than May.
Journalists also note that the EU has recently faced many cases of foreign interference in internal processes – from Russian hacking requests to Chinese grants that are supposed to change the discourse on human rights.

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 12:39

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 14/03/2023 10:39

Interesting thread from Mick Ryan, which looks at the Russian offensive and reaches the conclusion:

In summary, we could observe that Russia has probably launched its offensive at a time that is disadvantageous for them, and this favours Ukraine. While much remains to be seen in the coming months, Gerasimov’s offensive may actually be rushing his Army to failure.

Whole thread is here:

twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1635523475992633345?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Great thread by General Ryan. Gerasimov, who is not a bad military strategist, had no great choices when he took over. Russian forces were already culminating and exhausted when he took over. They never found a counter to Himars, other than moving everything of value 50 miles from the front lines. The sensible thing would have been to pull back, regroup, train up the mobics, and stockpile ammunition and weapons. But politically, this wasn't possible. Putin wanted him to do the impossible immediately, with predictable results.

They are not in any shape to retake the initiative and have minimal reserves to respond to the Ukrainian's next offensive, whenever that comes.

Igotjelly · 14/03/2023 13:30

Just saw this tweeted by John Sweeney, signs that DeSantis is turning against Ukraine (probably more important than what Trump thinks?)

www.reuters.com/world/us/further-us-involvement-ukraine-is-not-vital-national-interest-says-desantis-2023-03-14/

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 14:38

Igotjelly · 14/03/2023 13:30

Just saw this tweeted by John Sweeney, signs that DeSantis is turning against Ukraine (probably more important than what Trump thinks?)

www.reuters.com/world/us/further-us-involvement-ukraine-is-not-vital-national-interest-says-desantis-2023-03-14/

He also calls it a territorial dispute, which is significant. It diminishes the importance of it.

Surplus2requirements · 14/03/2023 17:48

2 Russian jets dumped fuel on a US Reaper in international airspace and one collided with it causing it to crash into the Black Sea

news.sky.com/story/russian-jets-dumped-fuel-in-front-of-us-drone-before-crash-which-could-lead-to-unintended-escalation-12833758

MMBaranova · 14/03/2023 18:15

The drone downing is worrying and the USA has to respond in a way that does not make this a norm. Without...

As for the female prisoners, I'm curious to know their roles. Russia isn't keen on women generally serving in front line roles. Yes, there are commemorated WW2 snipers and of course the Women's Battalion of Death (which was more a shaming the men ploy than a fighting unit).

Back when I used to watch Russian TV series (can't bear to now) there was Night Swallows, when Stalin did something Putin might in some way be emulating.

www.imdb.com/title/tt3577638/

Oh innocent days when I could tolerate such state supported series.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 19:52

Surplus2requirements · 14/03/2023 17:48

2 Russian jets dumped fuel on a US Reaper in international airspace and one collided with it causing it to crash into the Black Sea

news.sky.com/story/russian-jets-dumped-fuel-in-front-of-us-drone-before-crash-which-could-lead-to-unintended-escalation-12833758

There's an article on the Telegraph website that says that the fuel dumping was harassment but that the damage to the Reaper's propeller was likely accidental as the jet was "buzzing" the drone. It mentions the US giving the Ukrainians more access to the drone data as a possible response. I wonder if the Reapers might get a fighter escort for a while as a deterrent. @notimagain, your thoughts?

Don’t panic – here’s why drone collision won’t lead to all-out US-Russia war - Incident between US Reaper drone and Russian jet may, more than anything, be down to poor airmanship from jet’s pilot

Drones and other US, UK and Swedish intelligence collection aircraft have been operating for months over the Black Sea. They are visible on any decent flight tracking website such as FlightRadar24.

The US MQ-9 Reaper drone would have been obvious to the Russian pilot and, with a top speed of about 480km/h (298mph), much slower than the Russian Su-27 fighter. It is also much less manoeuvrable.

The Russian Air Force is known to act in a cavalier and provocative fashion around Western aircraft.

Last year, a Russian jet supposedly accidentally released a weapon near a British Rivet Joint spy plane, also over the Black Sea.

Consequently, Tuesday’s collision will almost certainly have been because of poor airmanship by the Russian pilot.

If, as is likely, this incident was Russia’s fault, then Moscow is unlikely to take any further action. Equally, given there was no loss of US life (although the most modern versions of the MQ-9 can cost about $30 million), any response from the US that might escalate the situation is not expected.

Russian jets are heavily controlled by ground commanders. The pilot would then have visually acquired the drone before proceeding with the intercept.

The Russian pilot probably sought to disrupt the drone’s flight path by pressuring the US controller, operating via satellite link from Creech Air Force base in Nevada, by flying close to – or “buzzing” – the drone.

The Russian jet may also have attempted to disrupt the airstream around the MQ-9.

Legislation or agreements covering scenarios such as this is a fuzzy legal area.

The closest to an agreed mode of behaviour is the 1972 US-Soviet Incidents at Sea agreement. Although it is old, it refers mainly to ships and has not been updated over the years to account for the development of drones.

The bilateral agreement between the US and the Soviet Union sought to reduce the chance of an incident at sea and in the air between the two countries and, in the event that one occurred, to prevent it from escalating.

Under the agreement, pilots are expected “to use the greatest caution and prudence in approaching aircraft and ships of the other party” and are not allowed to conduct “simulated attacks against aircraft or ships, perform aerobatics over ships, or drop hazardous objects near them”.

British and US representatives expect to meet with Russian officials annually to maintain the agreement, although Moscow cancelled the meeting last year. It is not known if meetings will resume while the war in Ukraine continues.

The US is unlikely to take any action to destabilise the already tense situation.

However, Washington may choose to punish Russia by giving Ukraine even greater access to the intelligence product – such as the positions and strengths of Moscow’s forces – collected by drones such as this MQ-9 over the Black Sea.

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 19:56

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 14:38

He also calls it a territorial dispute, which is significant. It diminishes the importance of it.

He's been tap-dancing around the issue for a while, but this is pretty specific. He must think this will help him more than it hurts him in the primaries, which are still a year away. There's a presumption that he needs to be against anything Biden is for, which is odd as many prominent Republicans are firmly in favor of aiding Ukraine. I think he'll regret taking this stance.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 20:27

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 19:56

He's been tap-dancing around the issue for a while, but this is pretty specific. He must think this will help him more than it hurts him in the primaries, which are still a year away. There's a presumption that he needs to be against anything Biden is for, which is odd as many prominent Republicans are firmly in favor of aiding Ukraine. I think he'll regret taking this stance.

I don't know much about American politics, but his position is clear and it's not in favour of continuing the current support levels. He must have had some pretty solid polling, otherwise he would still be ambiguous about it.

Zuffe · 14/03/2023 20:35

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 19:52

There's an article on the Telegraph website that says that the fuel dumping was harassment but that the damage to the Reaper's propeller was likely accidental as the jet was "buzzing" the drone. It mentions the US giving the Ukrainians more access to the drone data as a possible response. I wonder if the Reapers might get a fighter escort for a while as a deterrent. @notimagain, your thoughts?

Don’t panic – here’s why drone collision won’t lead to all-out US-Russia war - Incident between US Reaper drone and Russian jet may, more than anything, be down to poor airmanship from jet’s pilot

Drones and other US, UK and Swedish intelligence collection aircraft have been operating for months over the Black Sea. They are visible on any decent flight tracking website such as FlightRadar24.

The US MQ-9 Reaper drone would have been obvious to the Russian pilot and, with a top speed of about 480km/h (298mph), much slower than the Russian Su-27 fighter. It is also much less manoeuvrable.

The Russian Air Force is known to act in a cavalier and provocative fashion around Western aircraft.

Last year, a Russian jet supposedly accidentally released a weapon near a British Rivet Joint spy plane, also over the Black Sea.

Consequently, Tuesday’s collision will almost certainly have been because of poor airmanship by the Russian pilot.

If, as is likely, this incident was Russia’s fault, then Moscow is unlikely to take any further action. Equally, given there was no loss of US life (although the most modern versions of the MQ-9 can cost about $30 million), any response from the US that might escalate the situation is not expected.

Russian jets are heavily controlled by ground commanders. The pilot would then have visually acquired the drone before proceeding with the intercept.

The Russian pilot probably sought to disrupt the drone’s flight path by pressuring the US controller, operating via satellite link from Creech Air Force base in Nevada, by flying close to – or “buzzing” – the drone.

The Russian jet may also have attempted to disrupt the airstream around the MQ-9.

Legislation or agreements covering scenarios such as this is a fuzzy legal area.

The closest to an agreed mode of behaviour is the 1972 US-Soviet Incidents at Sea agreement. Although it is old, it refers mainly to ships and has not been updated over the years to account for the development of drones.

The bilateral agreement between the US and the Soviet Union sought to reduce the chance of an incident at sea and in the air between the two countries and, in the event that one occurred, to prevent it from escalating.

Under the agreement, pilots are expected “to use the greatest caution and prudence in approaching aircraft and ships of the other party” and are not allowed to conduct “simulated attacks against aircraft or ships, perform aerobatics over ships, or drop hazardous objects near them”.

British and US representatives expect to meet with Russian officials annually to maintain the agreement, although Moscow cancelled the meeting last year. It is not known if meetings will resume while the war in Ukraine continues.

The US is unlikely to take any action to destabilise the already tense situation.

However, Washington may choose to punish Russia by giving Ukraine even greater access to the intelligence product – such as the positions and strengths of Moscow’s forces – collected by drones such as this MQ-9 over the Black Sea.

I wonder what happens next with the drone. I can only presume there are some Navy Seals somewhere in Romania who will be ready for certain recovery ops. The international waters of the Black Sea are deep so I cannot imagine there being much plant available, or much expectation of a deep water recovery in any event.

MissConductUS · 14/03/2023 20:39

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 14/03/2023 20:27

I don't know much about American politics, but his position is clear and it's not in favour of continuing the current support levels. He must have had some pretty solid polling, otherwise he would still be ambiguous about it.

I think that's probably true, but not at the national level. The way the primary process works here is that primary elections are held sequentially in different states. There is a strong incentive to do well in the early voting states, as that creates momentum and helps in the later voting states. So at this stage, he is mainly looking at polling among Republicans in the early voting states. If he loses those, he's probably out of the race. National polling of the whole electorate isn't significant this far ahead of the election.