Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

The persistant rumours that Switzerland is considering modifying its rule of neutrality are interesting. It seems there's quite a bit of pressure, and there was a report yesterday that Swiss companies are losing orders because of their very strict re-use rules. People are considering S Korean and other countries' tank manufacturers instead.

Washington Post Telegram

Russia ends disclosure rules for officials, citing wartime secrecy needs
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/06/russia-corruption-war-ukraine-wagner/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)In the latest indication of expanded state secrecy in wartime Russia, President Vladimir Putin on Monday signed legislation that will exempt Russian lawmakers from a previous requirement that they disclose details of their income, expenses and property.

[however, Russia also claims that this won't affect any corruption problems ... ahahahahaha]

• Crews expect to finish their work by Friday on Odessa’s electrical substation, where an accident this weekend caused a severe fire, said Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the Ukrenergo utility’s chairman.

• A strike in Kharkiv injured five people and damaged a university and a residential building, local officials said.

Russia tries to defy pariah image with diplomatic blitz
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/02/russia-diplomacy-outreach-isolation-war/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Russia has launched a broad diplomatic blitz to counter its image as a pariah state in the run-up to the anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine, which severed Moscow’s ties with the West and even alarmed some of the Kremlin’s traditional allies.

In the past week, President Vladimir Putin phoned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to coordinate goals for Wednesday’s OPEC Plus meeting of oil producers, showing it’s still a player in oil markets. The government also said it was expecting a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping this year, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with counterparts from Egypt and Pakistan after returning from a diplomatic trip crisscrossing Africa.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

A propaganda campaign calling for peace with Russia is being prepared in Budapest under the auspices of the Russian special services, — InfoDnes

❗️The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [Parliament] recognized PMC "Wagner" as an international criminal and terrorist organization.

UN Secretary General Guterres expressed concern that the world is heading for a "bigger war" than the war in Ukraine
Also, in his opinion, the prospects for achieving peace in Ukraine are declining, and the probability of further escalation is increasing.

A Moscow resident was arrested for attempting to steal Lenin's body

Pregnant women in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine do not have access to the necessary medical care, as the Russians occupied all civilian medical facilities"The mortality rate of mothers and newborns in the temporarily occupied territory has more than tripled compared to similar indicators before the beginning of the Russian military aggression," Hanna Malyar reported.

The US administration has no information about China's supply of weapons to Russia to aid in military operations in Ukraine, – John Kirby, coordinator of strategic communications of the National Security Council of the White House
Washington intends to take measures against those companies, including those in China, that violate the regime of sanctions against Moscow.

Bring back the death penalty for those who left Russia and started criticizing the country from abroad, – Russian State Duma deputy Andrey Kolesnik

❗️The Kremlin ordered to prepare the bomb shelters throughout the Russian Federation, – The Moscow Times

‼️ ISIS fighters, taking advantage of the earthquake, escaped from prison in Syria, – Reuters

In the temporarily occupied Melitopol, the Russians plan to restore the bridge that was blown up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, over which military equipment and ammunition were transported.

Today, the German government may approve the supply of 187 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, — Business Insider
In particular, it is reported that Rheinmetall can deliver 88 machines, another 99 will come from FFG. However, it is still unclear how many of them are "on the go".
It is also not known for certain when exactly Ukraine will be able to receive “Leopards.”

Live:Ukraine Telegram

Reznikov believes that during the expected new offensive in February, the Russians will not try to capture all of Ukraine at once, as they did at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but will conduct concentrated battles in specific areas.

US General Dynamics to produce Abrams tanks for Ukraine - Financial Times.
The company can produce about 12 tanks per month and is currently waiting for a decision on whether to prioritize orders to Ukraine.

WARNING: VERY DISTRESSING
Reznikov: "In Chernihiv Oblast, the Armed Forces entered a liberated village and there lay a murdered mother, to whom the russians tied a crying baby with tape. Our soldier cut the tape to take the child away and a grenade exploded between the child and the mother."

The price for freedom.

❗️ Data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on revenues and expenditures of the state budget of the Russian Federation for January 2023:

▫️Oil and gas revenues amounted to 426 billion rubles (approx. $5 billion) and decreased by 46% in comparison with January 2022, which is primarily due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a decrease in natural gas exports.

▫️Non-oil and gas revenues amounted to 931 billion rubles (approx. $13 billion) and decreased by 28% compared to January 2022, mainly due to a reduction in domestic VAT and income tax revenues.

▫️The volume of federal budget expenditures in January 2023 amounted to 3,117 billion rubles, exceeding the indicators of the same period last year by 59%.

▫️The budget deficit amounted to 1,761 billion rubles. For the entire year 2022, the deficit amounted to 3.863 billion rubles.

Minus 1.8 trillion rubles = $25 billion only in January!

About Switzerland, it seems: A bill was recently introduced that would allow the government to reexport of Swiss weapons to countries with the same democratic values as Switzerland.
According to a recent sociological survey, 55% of Swiss are in favor of lifting the ban on the re-export of weapons and their supply to Ukraine.

Regarding the idea that Russia is pushing the idea of peace negotiations via Hungary, it looks like there could be a strong offensive push militarily combined with a strong attempt to influence the West to pressure Ukraine to settle for what it has.

Conflicting reports about how much info the US has about Chinese supplies of weopons parts or weopons to Russia. It looks like the US are going to take some action though.

Russian causalities of 800 yesterday and 1000 todays reporting. Ukrainian push ahead of 24th imminent?

It could be around both Bahkmet and Vulhedar, if the info on Twitter is correct. The Russians have been bringing up weopons and personnel to Vulhedar, it seems.

Bakhmet is gradually getting cut off. Ukraine seems to be fighting defensively as they don't have enough equipment and tanks and Russia is still literally throwing waves of personnel, so they overwhelm a position by sheer force of numbers, hold it, try to take the next position. My guess is that with the rumours of hundreds of thousands being mobilized, this is what they'll do from now on unless they can get more stuff from Iran / NK, since they are low on missiles.

Ukraine is seemingly also struggling for missiles.

It would be nice to hear of some Ukrainian gains but from what's being said at this moment that seems unlikely unless better/more Western equipment arrives, or they can get their own home-manufactured missiles etc working.

I don't think a major push by the UAF before the 24th is very likely. They seem to be in defensive operations mode while troops are being trained abroad and they wait for western armor to arrive.

In other news, it's being reported that the Germans will allow the export of 187 Leopard 1A5 tanks. There's no indication on how quickly they can be readied for deployment.

Germany is to issue a permit to supply a total of 187 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine today

Some fraction of that number are going to be in relatively good shape; others will need more work, so they'll go out as ready. The 1A5 is a good tank.

The US SECARMY visited an ammunition plant in Pennsylvania yesterday to announce a $243 million investment in upgrading capacity at the plant. The plant has already shipped about a million 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine and is running flat out.

Secretary of U.S. Army visits Scranton - Secretary of the U.S. Army Christine Wormuth toured the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant Monday

That post about the baby made me feel sick. How can anyone think like that?

In the past, Ukraine would let the Russians wear themselves out on non-valuable targets, then sweep the board with new weapons and freshly trained men. I'm hoping that will happen again, with the present situation.

It's all feeling bleak at the moment.

They'll go on the offensive again when they have sufficient forces to make a decisive attack. Lulls like this while they train, reconstitute forces, and integrate new equipment are perfectly normal. I'm not concerned about it at all. The UAF has excellent leadership and are getting advice from the best military strategists in Nato.

They may also be waiting for Russia to extend its forces by going on an offensive without sufficient combat power to be successful. That would make them more vulnerable.

I agree about the baby. Booby-trapping dead bodies goes back as long as warfare.

Russian casualties are higher than ever before, if that is possible. Those latest figures are staggering. Russia seems to be using human bodies to conserve having to use their missiles and weapons. With the reports of drugged up Russian soldiers that don't fall under fire until they bleed out, it is a grim reminder of Orcs.

I don't know what the casualties are like for Ukraine :( Best not to know.

I am afraid of what Russia has in store for the 24th. I worry (with no basis whatsoever) Russia is saving up their kinzhals and Iskander missiles to destroy Kyiv as a symbol since they failed to take it the same time last year.

I worry about the 24th too

The Ukrainian MOD's videos are just brilliant.

twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1622607708812713984

Made me sick too. Makes me wish I believed in hell so I could know that the sick people that did that would go there and suffer. Will just have to hope they'll suffer hell on earth instead.

Today!

Oh that's quite exciting! Just finished the BBC's Putin v the West programme and can't believe the change in him since the war began. He's aged so much, poor man.

Stuck in work meetings all day so will have to dip in and out of coverage. It’s good news though.

But this being reported makes me nervous for Zelensky’s safety. He’s in such a difficult position. He knows he’s the one to keep reminding the world that Ukraine is still suffering. But travelling is dangerous. Russia being aware of his travel movements is dangerous.

About 48 hours before the mooted trip to Brussels, the visit was reported by Italian media and later announced in a tweet by the European People’s party (EPP), the centre-right group of MEPs. “We look forward to welcoming you in Brussels, Mr President,” the tweet read. The post was swiftly deleted, but captured in a screenshot by Politico.

That is amazing!

Companion showed me this, which is apparently genuine. The Leopard, the perfect German beer transporter.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is likely attempting to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine.

Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power.

The Russian nationalist information space is continuing to express worry over Russia’s inability to sustain a rapid and multi-pronged decisive offensive operation on a deadline.

Russian state energy company Gazprom may be creating its own private security force, likely in an effort to normalize state-affiliated paramilitary groups and undermine non-state private military companies (PMCs).

The Kremlin may be implementing some demands previously voiced by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to build rapport with other nationalist figures who advocated for similar policies.

The Russian State Duma further formalized the institution of social benefit schemes in occupied territories of Ukraine in order to further consolidate administrative control of occupied areas.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut.

Russian forces did not make confirmed territorial gains on the southern axis.

Russian officials appear to be investing in railway infrastructure to increase the efficiency of military logistics.

The Russian MoD is reportedly proposing a bill to allow all military personnel, including conscripts, to voluntarily participate in Russian peacekeeping missions.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️SBU: Companies linked to Medvedchuk’s wife funded (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-companies-linked-to-medvedchuks-wife-funded-russian-military-occupation-government-in-crimea) Russian military, occupation government in Crimea.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on Feb. 7 that it had “liquidated a large-scale scheme of underground financing” of the Russian National Guard and Interior Ministry in occupied Crimea from the companies linked to Oksana Marchenko, the wife of Ukraine's most high-profile pro-Kremlin politician and Russian President Vladimir Putin's ally Viktor Medvedchuk.

⚡️Ukrenergo: Emergency power cuts in Odesa Oblast expected to last (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-emergency-power-cuts-in-odesa-oblast-expected-to-last-until-feb-11-12) until Feb. 11-1

⚡️Court arrests (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/court-arrests-oligarch-zhevago-company-bank-accounts) oligarch Zhevago's company bank accounts. [tax evasion]

⚡️Ukraine’s intelligence: Russian Gazprom to create (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-intelligence-russian-gazprom-to-create-its-own-private-military-company) its own private military company.

⚡️Paris Mayor says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/paris-mayor-says-shes-against-russias-participation-in-paris-2024-olympics) she's against Russia's participation in Paris 2024 Olympics.

⚡️ Reuters: Nordic countries oppose (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-nordic-countries-oppose-russian-belarusian-athletes-olympics-participation) Russian, Belarusian athletes’ Olympics participation.

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Kremlin-linked group pays European politicians for support (kyivindependent.com/investigations/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-kremlin-linked-group-arranges-payments-to-european-politicians-to-support-russias-annexation-of-crimea)
In this edition, discover how Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), and others, found that Russian lobbyists offered money to European Union politicians for pushing Kremlin-favored policies, an investigation by Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska Pravda about the wife and daughter of Russian oligarch Andrey Bokarev, under EU and U.K. sanctions, who vacationed in January in Courchevel, an expensive French ski resort, and more.

Ukraine war latest: Germany to give Kyiv more tanks, Russia slowly advances near Bakhmut, Vuhledar (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-germany-to-give-kyiv-more-tanks-russia-slowly-advances-near-bakhmut-vuhledar)
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced in Kyiv that Ukraine would receive over 80 older Leopard 1 battle tanks by the end of the year.
Around 20-25 tanks are set to be delivered in the summer.

⚡️ Reuters: Harris to discuss (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-harris-to-discuss-future-us-support-to-ukraine-at-munich-security-conference) future US support to Ukraine at Munich Security Conference.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Germany next week, where she is expected to talk about future support for Ukraine, Reuters reports.

⚡️EU to launch Information Sharing and Analysis Center to fight disinformation (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-to-launch-information-sharing-and-analysis-centre-to-fight-disinformation-campaigns) campaigns.
Information Sharing and Analysis Center will serve as “a new central resource for gathering information on threats stemming from disinformation and foreign information manipulation,” according to Josep Borrell’s statement.

⚡️Sky News: Zelensky to arrive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sky-news-zelensky-to-arrive-in-uk-on-feb-8) in UK on Feb. 8.
President Volodymyr Zelensky will arrive in the U.K. on Feb. 8 to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian servicemen who’ve been training in the country, Sky News reported, citing the prime minister's office. [that's interesting. He won't have taken the big risk of leaving Ukraine without significant reason. Wonder if this is about the aircraft, or increasing support generally]

Huge losses again. 134,000 killed, by Ukrainian figures.

I did see some figures that were claiming around well over 400k Russian losses + WIA + MIA, and about 215,000 Ukr KIA + WIA + MIA. These may or may not have been reliable since the sources were not given.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine is sending 87 rescuers to help Türkiye
The combined search and rescue team of the State Emergency Service and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, together with the equipment, will go to Türkiye on An-32 and An-26 transport planes.

BREAKING! The very first Leopard 2 is already in Ukraine

The German army began testing the new RCH-155 self-propelled artillery installation. Ukraine, which has already concluded an agreement, will be the first in the world to receive them.
The RCH-155 is similar to the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled gun, which has already been transferred to Ukraine, but it moves on wheels instead of tracks. The RCH-155 does not require a stop to fire, which makes it difficult to detect, and the automatic cannon is capable of firing nine rounds per minute at a distance of up to 50 kilometers.
The first samples of the RCH-155 will be ready for shipment only after 30 months, approximately in March 2025.

Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine use 5-6 thousand artillery shells, — Financial Times
The publication notes that this amount of ammunition is the annual state order of a small European state.

Without hesitation and without compromises: the world would be better without Putin, — German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in an interview with Bild.

Ukraine was able to return 128 children who were forcibly taken to Russia
According to Ombudsman Daria Gerasimchuk, as of October 2022, at least 8,709 children were forcibly taken to Russia.

That is impressive (though there's a danger of the beer getting warm)...but whilst not really relevant to the thread (? air war) not really as amazing as this.........

Well, what a fun filled day Zelensky has ahead of him. Meeting Rishi, speaking to MPs and then an audience with the King 😂

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Verkhovna Rada appoints Ihor Klymenko as head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Ukraine has weapons of its own production and can use them to destroy targets in Russia, - NSDC head in an interview with CNN
"As for the territory of Russia, no one forbids us to destroy targets with Ukrainian-made weapons.
Do we have such weapons? Yes," Danilov said.

Amid the war in Ukraine, Russian authorities have ordered to inspect and repair bomb shelters across the country, inspections are taking place even in the most remote regions of Russia - The Moscow Times, citing current and former Russian officials

⚡️Parliament extends martial law and general mobilization for 90 days

A gas pipeline exploded in occupied Makiivka. Local media reports that a powerful explosion was heard almost all over Donetsk.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has signed decrees appointing the heads of three regional state administrations: Dnipro, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

📍Dnipropetrovs'k region is headed by Serhiy Lysak, a brigadier general who previously headed the SBU in Dnipropetrovs'k region;

📍Zaporizhzhia region - Yuriy Malashko, Deputy Head of the Anti-Terrorist Center at the SBU;

📍Kherson region - Oleksandr Prokudin, Head of the National Police of Kherson region.

Russia is now trying to increase its influence in poor countries in Africa to actually open a "second front" to oppose the West - FT.

The death toll from the earthquake in Türkiye and Syria has risen to 7,826. More than 38.6 thousand people were injured. According to WHO estimates, the death toll could reach 20 thousand.

Liubov Yarosh is 102-year-old. She survived 3 of Stalin's forced famines inflicted on Ukraine, including 1932-33 Holodomor.
"We ate nettles. Tiny children were dying of hunger. They dug a big hole and threw them in."
Now she makes camouflage for Ukranian snipers.