Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-21-2023
Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Russian Federal Assembly did not articulate specific goals or intentions for the war in Ukraine, instead reinforcing several long-standing rhetorical lines in an effort to buy Putin more space and time for a protracted war.

Putin's announcement of Russia’s suspension of participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) captured more attention than the relatively boilerplate content of the rest of the speech.

US President Joe Biden gave a speech in Warsaw, Poland on February 21 to reaffirm US and NATO support for Ukraine after his trip to Kyiv.

Many Russian milbloggers condemned Putin’s failure to use his speech to forward new war aims, outline new measures to support the war, or hold Russian authorities accountable for their many military failures.

International journalists reportedly obtained the Kremlin’s classified 2021 strategy document on restoring Russian suzerainty over Belarus through the Union State by 2030.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee Central Foreign Affairs Commission Office Director Wang Yi met in Moscow on February 21 on deepening Sino–Russan cooperation.

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s international companies continue to garner hundreds of millions of dollars in profits despite long-standing Western sanctions.

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a limited counterattack near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued making incremental tactical gains in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks near Avdiivka.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continue to reinforce and build fortifications in rear areas in southern Ukraine.

The Kremlin may be directing patronage programs between Russian regions and occupied Ukrainian territory to promote socio-economic recovery and infrastructure development.

Russian President Vladimir Putin further expanded unrealistic promises of benefits for Russian soldiers in his address to the Russian Federal Assembly.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukraine, EU and NATO agree
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-eu-and-nato-agree-on-coordination-of-weapons-production-for-ukrainian-military)on coordination of weapons production for Ukrainian military.
Ukraine, the European Union, and NATO are joining forces to increase the production of weapons and ammunition, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
To this end, the parties agreed to create a coordination mechanism that would synchronize the work of producers, buyers, and governments, Kuleba said during the first-ever trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the EU, and NATO on Feb. 21.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces trying to advance (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-forces-trying-to-advance-in-5-directions) in 5 areas.
Russian troops are conducting offensives in the areas of Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Shakhtarsk, and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update on Feb. 21.

⚡️Italy to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/italy-to-send-ukraine-two-other-air-defense-systems-in-addition-to-mamba) Ukraine 2 other air defense systems in addition to Mamba.
Under its new military aid package, Italy will provide Ukraine with Spada and Skyguard air defense systems beyond the SAMP-T/Mamba, which it earlier pledged to deliver, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Feb. 21.

⚡️ UN: Putin’s withdrawal (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-putins-withdrawal-from-new-start-treaty-is-dangerous) from New START treaty is ‘dangerous.’
The United Nations has expressed concern over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to withdraw from the New START treaty, which is aimed at the reduction of states’ nuclear arsenals.

⚡️ Reuters: Momentum shifts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-momentum-shifts-in-us-toward-providing-ukraine-with-long-range-missiles-fighter-jets) in US toward providing Ukraine with long-range missiles, fighter jets.
The U.S. is inclining toward sending long-range missiles and fighter jets to Ukraine, Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said, according to Reuters.

Poland will provide Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks in the “next two to three weeks” after Ukrainian troops complete their training, Poland’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said on Feb. 21.

CNN: Russia’s nuclear-capable ICBM Sarmat allegedly failed test (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-russias-nuclear-capable-icbm-sarmat-allegedly-failed-test).
Russia’s nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile Sarmat appears to have failed a test launch around Feb. 20, according to the CNN’s sources among the U.S. officials.

⚡️City Council: Russian ammunition warehouse destroyed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/city-council-russian-ammunition-warehouse-destroyed-in-mariupol) in occupied Mariupol.

⚡️China's top diplomat in Moscow, meets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/chinas-top-diplomat-meets-with-russian-foreign-minister) with Russian foreign minister.
China's Foreign Ministry denied any plans to provide lethal aid to Moscow for use in the Ukrainian war and blamed the United States and NATO for spreading what it called false information about China's involvement.
This comes as China's top diplomat Wang Yi was pictured meeting with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Feb. 22.

Good interview with Fiona Hill: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/unherd-with-freddie-sayers/id1540134798?i=1000600954493

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The "big offensive" of the Russians has been going on for more than a week, – Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the NSDC

There has been no capacity deficit in the power system for 10 days and it is not predicted on the condition that there will be no new attacks, – Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmyhal [first time in a long time]

📢 The Israeli early warning system will be tested in Kyiv, – the Ambassador of Ukraine to Israel
The peculiarity of this system is that special radars can accurately calculate where the missile is flying, so the siren is turned on in a specific place.

🇨🇳 Zelenskyy commented on China's "peace plan": we have our own "peace formula", and we expect that on February 23, during the UN meeting, it will be supported by all states – including India, China, and African countries.

🇺🇸The Biden administration this week will introduce sanctions against 200 Russian individuals and legal entities, – The Wall Street Journal with reference to sources
According to the publication, "governors and family members of Russian officials" will be included in the sanctions list.

The US will provide Ukraine with long-range GPS-guided bombs (JDAMs) capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 72 km, – Bloomberg

The anti-Russian resolution on achieving peace in Ukraine, the draft of which was previously submitted to the secretariat of the UN General Assembly, was supported by 68 countries – the permanent representative of the US to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, at a briefing.

In 2021, German automaker Volksvagen Group and French improvement goods retailer Leroy Merlin topped the list of highest-earning foreing businesses in Russia with 517 billions rubles and 457 billion rubles respectively. It is a lot of money, ain't it?

An air alert was announced on the radio in Russia
On the morning of February 22, 10 Russian cities announced an air alert and a threat of a missile attack on the radio, later the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was a hacker attack

Representatives of The Boeing Company Corporation said that Ukraine will receive Jdam-ER guided air bombs capable of hitting a target at a distance of 45 miles (72 kilometers), — Bloomberg

Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Kyiv to meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, — Israel Hayom

Ukraine has identified 16,226 children abducted by Russia from the occupied territories, Daria Gerasymchuk, the representative of the President of Ukraine on children's rights, said during a meeting with representatives of the Ukrainian community in New York.
According to the children's ombudsman, the total number of children taken to the territory of the Russian Federation may reach hundreds of thousands. At the same time, only 307 abductees have been returned home.

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Budanov gave an interview to Forbes. The main thing:

▫️The great offensive of the Russian Federation, which was talked about, is already underway, but in such a way that not everyone sees it. Such is the quality of this offensive. The Russians have a strategic task — to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

▫️Stocks of artillery shells in Russia have decreased to 30%, and the remaining missiles are almost exhausted. The maximum they can produce is about 40 cruise missiles per month. Therefore, Moscow was forced to abandon the ambitious capture of Kyiv.

▫️Decisive battles await Ukraine from the middle to the end of spring. And this will be a turning point in the war.

▫️Under Bakhmut, the invaders change their tactics. They are more inclined to throw infantry into battle, rather than working with artillery or other equipment.

▫️After victory, we must create conditions for a security zone around our border. A demilitarized zone, without weapons, with normal control. The zone of about 100 km, but 40 km would be quite acceptable.

▫️If we compare the 12 months of war with football, then the score is now 1:1, 70th minute. But this is my subjective view.

▫️ We have only one condition — to enter the administrative borders of 1991, we will decide everything else later.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇪🇺 The European Union cannot find the blocked €300 billion of the Russian Central Bank that was frozen at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The EU wants to transfer this money to rebuild Ukraine, but financiers have not found it yet.
45 members of the European Parliament sent a letter to EU leaders demanding the creation of a unified register of blocked funds of the Russian Central Bank and Russian oligarchs, indicating the amount and location of the funds.

Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Káčer scolded Hungarian Prime Minister Orban with the Russian phrase "F*ck you" for his policies that play into Putin's hands.
Káčer argues that military aid to Ukraine is morally right because Russians have invaded the country and are killing Ukrainians.
Instead, he noted that Orban's position that "this is not our war" is morally unacceptable

During U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Kyiv, Russia tested a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which apparently failed, CNN reports.
The Sarmat missile, according to the Russians, has a maximum range of 18,000 kilometers and is capable of carrying up to 10 warheads with a total yield of 8 megatons.

Zelensky plans to personally attend NATO summit in Vilnius in July - Ukraine's Ambassador to Lithuania Petro Beshta

🇨🇳 Zelenskyy commented on China's "peace plan": we have our own "peace formula", and we expect that on February 23, during the UN meeting, it will be supported by all states – including India, China, and African countries.

This is really interesting - do we think that "we expect" means we would expect (as in they should) or that they genuinely think that China and India will support it. I suspect unfortunately its the former.

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/russia-ukraine-war-putin-updates-biden-poland/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)- Biden is expected to meet leaders of the Bucharest Nine, a group of countries on NATO’s eastern flank, in Poland on Wednesday. Biden will also meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the final day of his trip to Warsaw.

• Russia recently notified the U.S. that it would carry out an intercontinental ballistic missile test, U.S. officials said Tuesday night, but no missile appears to have been launched during Biden’s visit to Ukraine.

• Russia on Tuesday called for a special U.N. commission to investigate (www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/22/russia-un-nord-stream-hersh-investigation/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main) the explosions that blew up the Nord Stream undersea natural gas pipelines, based largely on an American journalist’s controversial allegation that it was destroyed in a secret U.S. operation. The U.S. has denied involvement.

• At least 8,000 civilians have been killed and at least 13,000 have been injured in the war over the past year, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said Tuesday.

Christ, the spectacle at the Moscow rally. Just nauseating.

The European Union cannot find the blocked €300 billion of the Russian Central Bank that was frozen at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The EU wants to transfer this money to rebuild Ukraine, but financiers have not found it yet.

Just how on earth can €300 billion be lost?? Never frozen in the first place more bloody likely and is safely in Swiss bank accounts…

Happy birthday @Mb76

I'm wondering the same. This is major news and if it's vanished, it should be a very major scandal.

A bit early and I'll pop up again but, before we're lost, a link to thread 38: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4748708-ukraine-invasion-part-38

A Russian ammunition depot in Mariupol was destroyed last night.

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1628316779691794437

Since Mariupol is well out of HIMARS range, either the GLSDBs have arrived or Ukraine has developed a homegrown long range weapon. If it is the GLSDBs they are likely not there in great quantity yet.

Thank you for the Birthday wishes everyone 🤗
I am very thankful for each and everyone of you, for all the support, for every hand hold and for you all relentlessly seeking and sharing the truth over this whole year. You lot are the best!

on Twitter people are suggesting the GLSDBs. Ukraine is developing its own long range missiles but I don't think they are at this stage yet.

One happy day when this is over we'll do our fantasy church hall and cake meet up and celebrate many things together 🎂💐

And link to the next thread again:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4748708-ukraine-invasion-part-38

Many thanks for this MagicFox, really enjoy listening to Fiona Hill's POV.

How the living hell Putin can persuade Russians to accept this is incomprehensible. Near to total news blackout, I suppose.

Frame this as the Great Patriotic War, version 2, with Nazi armies at the western borders and the job is pretty much done.

It is understandably to an extent though twisted.

Just look at polling of how uncomfortable German citizens were with the thought of German tanks rolling East before the decision was made.

Thanks Ducks as always for the key takeaways.

The "big offensive" of the Russians has been going on for more than a week, – Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the NSDCI

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Budanov gave an interview to Forbes. The main thing:
▫️The great offensive of the Russian Federation, which was talked about, is already underway, but in such a way that not everyone sees it. Such is the quality of this offensive. The Russians have a strategic task — to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

I chuckled at this. It must be the offensive of a worm. Did I see it move, no no. Are they in yet? Of course not funny in real life because Ukrainian soldiers are no doubt still losing their lives.

Ukraine has identified 16,226 children abducted by Russia from the occupied territories, Daria Gerasymchuk, the representative of the President of Ukraine on children's rights, said during a meeting with representatives of the Ukrainian community in New York.
According to the children's ombudsman, the total number of children taken to the territory of the Russian Federation may reach hundreds of thousands. At the same time, only 307 abductees have been returned home.

If Sophie's Choice reduced me to tears, I simply cannot process the collective horror of this.

In 2021, German automaker Volksvagen Group and French improvement goods retailer Leroy Merlin topped the list of highest-earning foreing businesses in Russia with 517 billions rubles and 457 billion rubles respectively. It is a lot of money, ain't it?

It is - wtf? VW and Leroy Merlin (DIY store) and Auchan must be coining it after all their more ethical Western competitors in Russia have exited the country. Fuckers. I see it in my industry as well. Few firms want to touch Russian work, even if it is non-sanctioned, for reputational reasons. But those who are prepared to get their hands dirty will immediately become a magnet for scummy clients. There are rich pickings for those who can overlook their morals.