Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Washington Post Telegram

Attacking Vuhledar, Russia previews new push to seize southeast Ukraine
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/04/vuhledar-ukraine-russia-attacks-war/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)BOHOYAVLENKA, Ukraine — Russian forces have launched a midwinter surge of attacks in Ukraine’s hotly contested Donetsk region, probing Kyiv’s defenses along a fresh stretch of the sprawling eastern front as President Vladimir Putin’s commanders ready a new push to conquer all of southeast Ukraine.
The attacks in recent days have centered on Vuhledar, a mostly deserted coal-mining city 70 miles southwest of Bakhmut, where Russian fighters have made some of their first territorial gains in months.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/07/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made a surprise visit to Kyiv on Tuesday.

• Ukraine continued to appeal for advanced weapons, including fighter jets, with Deputy Foreign Minister Andrij Melnyk urging Germany to help establish a coalition to supply equipment.

• Sweden is ready to restart negotiations over its application to join NATO as soon as Turkey is ready, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Tuesday, according to Reuters.

• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will arrive in Washington on Tuesday for meetings with senior Biden administration officials and members of Congress this week.

• Ukraine’s main Catholic church is set to begin following a new calendar, breaking another link to Russia. Under the change, the church would celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25, rather than Jan. 7, when the Russian branch of the Orthodox Church marks the holiday per the Julian calendar.

Well that was more rewarding than the usual content of the BBC Parliament Channel.

Slava Ukraini.

Catching snippets of it on my work laptop

It's been reported that the UK will provide the Ukrainina Air Force with training on "NATO standard fighter jets" and provide "other long range capabilities".

twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1623242814699065344

@notimagain, any guesses on what the aircraft might be? Tornados possibly?

Depressing Twitter thread ref Russian 'meat wave' offensives from an OSINT Analyst:

Hard times for Ukraine - an overview of the situation🪖

During the winter, Ukrainian offensives have mostly stalled. At the same time, the Russians have increased their attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk. The frontlines are slowly moving from east to west again.

twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1623002390906515456?s=12

Saw that, but the new equipment isn't really there yet (i think?) and when we say ' the frontlines are slowly moving from east to west again' we're talking a few hundred meters a week, with gigantic manpower losses. It'll be interesting to see what happens when the new equipment really gets going.

I've seen reports that some of the new armored personnel carriers are at the front. There are so many different types being donated that the UAF troops have to check photos on their phones to verify the types. APCs are either unarmed or very lightly armed, so only usefully offensively in combination with other assets. This contrasts with infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) that are more heavily armed.

The disposable soldier mass attack tactics do let the Russians advance in tiny increments, but they also tie down a lot of troops and logistical support. If you look at yesterday's (7/2) MoD intelligence update, one thing it noted was the fact that the Russians lack maneuver assets (APCs and IFVs) in the east, so those assaults are happening on foot by necessity. This greatly limits the amount of territory that they can take or threaten. Even if the UAF were losing a km here or there, it wouldn't be terribly significant.

TBH my crystal ball with regard to the air war isn't working too well ATM.

Tornado IDS (Interdictor Strike) variant has been gone from the UK inventory for several years and I'd have thought given it's very specific role it isn't going to be on offer even if some could be resurrected.

The Tornado ADV (Air Defence Variant), which with AMRAAM might have been a credible counter the MiG-31/R-37 combination which seems to have really hurt the Uk AF was scrapped about a decade back.....

F-35 won't be on offer so if the training on offer is on a genuine NATO standard front line fighter that leaves the Typhoon..

Meanwhile in the last few days and weeks there's been quite a few sadly credible, sensible comments from credible commentators questioning just how effective the F-16, if provided, would be...they would certainly have to be delivered hand in hand with whole sizable tranche of materiel aimed at Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) ..

www.airandspaceforces.com/ukraine-has-more-pressing-needs-than-f-16s-top-senator-says/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

Just watched the press conference for Dorset

The BBC Ukraine correspondent asked for a hug!!

Thank you for putting current Russian 'successes' into context knowledgeable posters, you've cheered me up a bit.
I just wish the Russians would pack up and go home, or better still have never invaded in the first place. It's all been a colossal waste of life and resources which will take decades to unpick and rebuild - relations between Ukraine and Russia and Russia and the West have irretrievably broken down and I can't see them improving for generations.
Rather than owning their mistake Putin and his cronies just keep doubling down, the nuclear rhetoric isn't going away and they seem to be betting the house on a Spring offensive, like others I'm concerned about what Russia is planning for the 1st anniversary of this total shitshow.

@notimagain, thanks for the link, good article/interview. Jack Reed is a very capable Senator. He's a West Point graduate and former army officer. He's a very steady hand on the Armed Services Committee and a strong supporter of Ukraine.

Take this for what you will. Boris Johnson agrees with you that it would have to be training for the Typhoon.

Boris Johnson: Send Typhoons to Ukraine so it can finish the job - Former prime minister steps up pressure on Rishi Sunak to sign off deliveries of warplanes to Kyiv

@MissConductUS

Boris Johnson agrees with you... Oh...err 🤔 😯

There are supposedly about thirty tranche 1 Typhoons mothballed somewhere, they don't have all the gizmos and weapons options of the later tranches but would be good to have.

Training on them might be interesting seeing as the RAF has (on the quiet) got a bit of a crisis going on ATM - lack of training resources....Maybe there will now be incentive to sort that out for the greater good.

Shout out to everyone (particularly Ducks) patiently countering the lunacy on the Zelensky thread. The bots are out in force tonight!

The Zelensky thread is something else.

Yes frankly I think it’s really irresponsible for MN to let it stand but I suppose they’d be accused of censorship if they take it down.

Haven't seen that thread, I guess its in AIBU?

I've not seen it either, but that's a good thing by the sounds of it

Yes it is.

I do think (and worry) there is a bit of a shift going on towards the fact that Russia may still win this. Even the ISW are saying they have regained the initiative and a new offensive has started.

To be honest it’s actually worth a glance for the sheer batshittery. It’s quite entertaining.

^^ Seconded....

Just found it and read through it. Wow.

www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/members-event/new-nuclear-order

Very interesting interview with Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the IAEA.

I haven't seen or read any evidence Russia does have a decisive advantage and could win the war. Quite the opposite; they are throwing huge amounts of men into the mill for what appears to be incremental gains. I am sure the Ukrainians have their own numbers of dead & wounded but I doubt they will be the same as their enemy. I am watching the economic data with interest; it's the 1990s Mark II in Russia as people swoop in to grab businesses or industries abandoned by Western companies. At the same time, they've taken a huge hit on exports and rumour has it, the easy-access cash will run out by September. If so, the army is being pushed to run an assault now, before the new weapons and trained soldiers arrive from the West.

That thread is getting to me, I'll have to step away.

Agreed @TheABC !

I'm getting angry reading it