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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
MagicFox · 05/02/2023 07:25

WSJ: www.wsj.com/articles/china-aids-russias-war-in-ukraine-trade-data-shows-11675466360?mod=RSSMSN

China Aids Russia’s War in Ukraine, Trade Data Shows
Despite sanctions, Moscow equips its jet fighters, submarines and soldiers with help of Chinese companies

China is providing technology that Moscow’s military needs to prosecute the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls, according to a Wall Street Journal review of Russian customs data.
The customs records show Chinese state-owned defense companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology and fighter-jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies.

OP posts:
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/02/2023 13:13

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

A Russian decisive offensive operation is unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline.

Russian forces have not shown the capacity to sustain the multiple simultaneous large-scale offensive operations that would be necessary to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast and seize Zaporizhia City.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has launched a series of efforts to restructure and consolidate the mismatched blend of irregular forces supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine into Russia’s conventional military forces.

The Russian MoD’s decision to undertake significant structural reform while preparing for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine likely represents an effort by Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov to complete reforms while he has Russian President Vladimir Putin’s often fleeting favor.

Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is overcompensating for his declining influence by continuing to frame himself as the sole victor in the Bakhmut area.

Russian and Ukrainian officials exchanged 63 Russian POWs for 116 Ukrainian POWs.

Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations northwest of Svatove and continued offensive operations around Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Vuhledar but have slowed the pace of their offensives along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

Russian authorities are attempting to reinvigorate force generation efforts by drawing from broader pools of manpower.

[the UK also pointedly commented that in the last year, Russia has lost half of the territory it occupied and in the last 6 months has only captured one small town [Soledar] at the price of thousands of casualties]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/02/2023 13:55

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Media: Portugal to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-portugal-to-send-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine) four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

⚡️ Border Guard: Ukrainian troops stop (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-attack-in-siversk-direction) Russian reconnaissance group near Siversk in Donetsk Oblast. [there are claims there is a lot of Ru reconnaissance going on]

⚡️ German top official says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-top-official-says-no-evidence-of-russian-sabotage-of-nord-stream-pipeline) no evidence of Russian sabotage of Nord Stream pipeline.
German investigators currently have no evidence that Russia is behind the explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, German Attorney General Peter Frank told Die Welt.

⚡️General Staff: Russians regroup, conduct offensives in several directions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russians-regroup-conduct-offensive-in-separate-directions).
Russian troops are regrouping and concentrating on conducting offensives in the direction of Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast, the General Staff reported.

⚡️Official: Russia ‘threw (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-russia-threw-its-full-strength-into-encircling-bakhmut) its full strength’ into encircling Bakhmut. [however, it is managing to cut off the roads]

First Leopard tank leaves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/first-leopard-tank-leaves-canada-on-its-way-to-ukraine) Canada on its way to Ukraine.

⚡️Zelensky representative: Military installations (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-representative-all-military-installations-in-russia-are-legitimate-targets) in Russia are legitimate targets.

⚡️ Russian proxies discuss (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-proxies-discuss-forcibly-sending-children-in-luhansk-oblast-to-republic-of-karelia) forcibly sending children in Luhansk Oblast to Republic of Karelia.
Russian proxies in Luhansk Oblast discussed sending Ukrainian children to the Republic of Karelia in Russia, the National Resistance Center, an organization operated by Ukraine’s Special Forces, reported on Feb. 4.

Media: Zelensky to dismiss Defense Minister Reznikov, intelligence chief seen as likely successor (kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainska-pravda-intelligence-chief-likely-to-replace-defense-minister)
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov will likely be dismissed from his ministerial post next week, Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on Feb. 5, citing government and military sources.
According to the sources, the likely replacement for Reznikov is understood to be Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency HUR. [I wonder why? a huge change, this]

⚡️Ukrainian military: Russia burns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-russia-burns-ukrainian-books-in-occupied-luhansk-oblast) Ukrainian books in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️Update: 5 injured (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/update-5-injured-in-russian-strikes-on-kharkiv-university-severely-damaged) in Russian strikes on Kharkiv, university severely damaged.

⚡️Air Force: Ukrainian service members leave (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-ukrainian-service-members-leave-for-training-on-french-italian-mamba-air-defense-system) for training on French-Italian SAMP-T Mamba air defense system.

⚡️Ministry: Ukrainian grain exports fall (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ministry-ukrainian-grain-exports-fall-by-1-3-million-metric-tons-in-january) by 1.3 million metric tons in January.
The Agriculture Ministry said on Feb. 5 that Ukraine exported 5.5 million metric tons of grain in January, a significant drop in volume compared to the previous month, due to the hold up and obstruction of the passage of outbound vessels' by Russia.

⚡️Shmyhal: 280,000 people in Odesa still without power
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/shmyhal-280-000-in-odesa-still-without-power-after-fire-at-substation)after fire at substation.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/02/2023 14:41

UNITED24 Media Telegram

President Zelenskyy set forth his “Peace Formula'' in a speech to world leaders during the G20 summit in Indonesia. The title might sound as if he is laying out the recipe for immediate ceasefire, but it is not the case.
Here is how it looks like

The Russians obliged the heads of schools in Mariupol and surrounding settlements to check schoolchildren's phones every day for the presence of pro-Ukrainian content, Deputy Mayor Petro Andryushchenko said

The Russians also launched a campaign in the city against religious communities and institutions that do not practice Orthodoxy.
"All Protestant and non-Orthodox churches are now banned in Mariupol. The process of confiscation of property and forced termination of their activities has begun," the official said.

⚡️ Britain is preparing a decision to recognize Wagner PMC as a terrorist organization, — The Telegraph

Türkiye sells to the Russian Federation American goods that are used for the needs of the Russian army, — The Wall Street Journal
Turkish companies sell tens of millions of dollars worth of American electronics, spare parts and other goods to the Russian Federation, despite the sanctions imposed against Russia. Currently, it is known that at least 13 Turkish companies exported goods worth about 18 million dollars to Russia.

❗️ The Russians are recruiting prisoners for the war in Ukraine, — General Staff
Over the past week, 50 women from the colony in Snizhne, occupied Donetsk region, joined the ranks of the Russian military. Now the prisoners are undergoing training on the territory of the Russian Federation.

❗️ The fighters released from Russian captivity are in the hospital, their condition is unsatisfactory
Ukrainians freed from Moscow are currently in hospital. The condition of the patients is assessed as unsatisfactory. Long-term treatment and rehabilitation lie ahead,

💾 Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has carried out more than 2,000 cyberattacks against Ukraine
The Russians are trying to break into registries or information systems where the personal data of citizens are stored, as well as attack the energy sector, and information systems that are related to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.

The Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Olaf Scholz, said that he agreed with Volodymyr Zelenskyy not to use weapons provided by the West on the territory of the Russian Federation.

Putin promised me "not to kill" Zelenskyy, ex-Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett said in an interview with the Times of Israel

"Miss Ukraine-Universe" Viktoriia Apanasenko sold wings from her national costume.
The model managed to collect more than 10 thousand dollars. She transferred the money to KindDeeds Inc. for the production of prostheses for the Ukrainian military.

🇵🇱Poland will soon start building a barrier on the border with Russia, — Polskie Radio
The electronic fence system in the section with the Kaliningrad region should cover approximately 200 km of the land border.

The map shows the areas of Crimea that Ukraine can reach with the help of GLSDB – a small-diameter ground-based gliding bomb.

🟡 The maximum range of GMLRS is 92 km.
🔴 The maximum range of GLSDB is 150 km

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
blueshoes · 05/02/2023 16:47

ReleaseTheDucks, thanks for the takeaways.

Media: Zelensky to dismiss Defense Minister Reznikov, intelligence chief seen as likely successor (kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainska-pravda-intelligence-chief-likely-to-replace-defense-minister)
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov will likely be dismissed from his ministerial post next week, Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on Feb. 5, citing government and military sources.
According to the sources, the likely replacement for Reznikov is understood to be Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency HUR. [I wonder why? a huge change, this]

This is confusing. Oleksii Reznikov is pretty high profile. Why would they say 'dismissed'? Sounds serious.

Greenshake · 05/02/2023 16:51

This is strange, I remember him featuring in that brilliant Zelenskyy “we are all here” video.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/02/2023 18:03

Yes. Wonder if it will really happen and if so, if we'll hear the reason

Greenshake · 06/02/2023 08:56

The terrible earthquake in Turkey and Syria…..Ukraine offer assistance and Russia make no comment other than to assure everyone their military base in Syria is safe. Says it all 😡

Igotjelly · 06/02/2023 09:19

Greenshake · 06/02/2023 08:56

The terrible earthquake in Turkey and Syria…..Ukraine offer assistance and Russia make no comment other than to assure everyone their military base in Syria is safe. Says it all 😡

I did think that, although part of me thinks Zelensky probably has enough to be getting on with. Nice of him to at least send condolences. Putin is an ass-wipe....

Igotjelly · 06/02/2023 09:20

Although actually in fairness apnews.com/article/turkey-earthquake-live-updates-19e7d84fefdeed4c8a355dedf23d914f

"Russia says it is readying rescue teams to fly to Turkey to help earthquake victims there and in neighboring Syria.
A minister of emergency situations, Aleksandr Kurenkov, said teams of 100 search and rescue personnel are on standby to be sent to Turkey with two Il-76 transport planes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also offered condolences in telegrams to the leaders of Syria and Turkey and expressed readiness to help."

Igotjelly · 06/02/2023 09:49

Sorry for spamming. But interesting in last 10mins:

Iuliia Mendel
@IuliiaMendel
·
10m
There will be no change of the minister of defense in Ukraine this week.

notimagain · 06/02/2023 10:03

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/02/2023 17:59

someone post something or Ill feel terrible about completely spamming the thread !

Very late response to that from me - bandwidth been occupied countering some of the utter wuckfittery elsewhere about that balloon...so to finally address your comment - all those updates are gratefully received here..

Greenshake · 06/02/2023 10:49

I am definitely happy to be corrected about the Russian response to the earthquake.

Igotjelly · 06/02/2023 10:54

God another massive earthquake in Turkey.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 11:27

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on February 5:

Current Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (pending a potential reshuffle) stated that Ukrainian officials expect possible Russian offensive operations ahead of the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but noted that there are no Russian strike groups near Kharkiv City.[24]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Ukraine is not using Western-provided weapons to strike Russian territory.[25]

US officials stated that Russia and Iran plan to build a factory in Russia to manufacture up to 6,000 drones for combat in Ukraine.[26] A Russian source claimed that Russian arms company Lobaev Arms is beginning to develop and produce these drones.[27]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces launched renewed offensive operations northwest of Svatove in recent days.[28]

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.[29] Russian milbloggers are conflicted on whether Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Bakhmut, as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied claims of a Ukrainian withdrawal.[30] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely unable to force an imminent Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are transferring reserves in the Vuhledar direction.[31]

Geolocated satellite footage shows that Russian forces built a fortified base on the Arabat Spit in northeastern Crimea between October 18, 2022, and January 21, 2023.[32]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continue to import medical personnel from Russia to treat wounded military personnel in occupied Luhansk Oblast, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are preparing for a renewed offensive in Luhansk Oblast.[33]

Significant activity in Belarus (ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. It will no longer include counter-indicators for such an offensive.

Extra:
Putin’s reluctance to take risks directly related to his conventional war in Ukraine indicates that he remains highly unlikely to pursue nuclear escalation or war with NATO. ISW previously assessed that Russian conventional war threats against NATO do not correspond with Russia’s capabilities and that Russia uses nuclear threats primarily to intimidate the West.[23] Putin evidently values his domestic status quo and seeks to avoid risky and controversial policies to support his own aims. Putin also continues to demonstrate that he remains a calculated individual who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks—even while his perception of the situation he faces diverges from reality. Putin has thus repeatedly placed himself in the position of articulating maximalist and unrealistic objectives, calling on his government and military to achieve them—yet refraining from making the costly decisions the large-scale and protracted conventional war he has embarked on likely requires.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 11:34

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Defense Minister says he will step down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-minister-says-hes-prepared-to-step-down-if-zelensky-orders-his-dismissal) if Zelensky orders his dismissal.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said during a briefing on Feb. 5 that he was ready to step down if President Volodymyr Zelenksy ordered his dismissal.
In late January, the Defense Ministry was beset by a high-profile corruption scandal that led to the firing of several top officials.

⚡️Ministry: Ukraine returns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ministry-ukraine-returns-two-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia) two children forcibly sent to Russia.
Ukraine returned two children illegally taken to Russia, the Reintegration Ministry reported on Feb. 5. According to the ministry, the 13-year-old and 15-year-old girls, together with their mother, were forcibly deported from the eastern Luhansk Oblast to Russia’s Ryazan region.
In Russia, the mother died, and the children ended up in an orphanage. [dear god, those poor teenagers]

⚡️Reznikov: Israel promised (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reznikov-israel-promised-to-provide-ukraine-with-missile-and-drone-alert-system) to provide Ukraine with missile and drone alert system

⚡️Lithuanians raise (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuania-raises-6-million-euros-to-buy-air-defense-radars-for-ukraine) 6 million euros to buy air defense radars for Ukraine.

⚡️WSJ: Moscow, Tehran move forward (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wsj-moscow-tehran-move-forward-with-plans-to-build-iranian-designed-drone-plant-in-russia) with plans to build Iranian-designed drone plant in Russia.

⚡️Ukraine imposes sanctions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-imposes-sanctions-against-russias-nuclear-industry) against Russia’s nuclear industry.
On Feb. 5, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on sanctions against the Russian nuclear industry proposed by the National Security Council. The measures target 200 Russian entities and will remain in effect for 50 years.

Ukraine war latest: Bakhmut ‘increasingly isolated’ as Russia appears to make progress on encircling the city (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-bakhmut-increasingly-isolated-as-russia-appears-to-make-progress-on-encircling-the-city)
Bakhmut is becoming “increasingly isolated” as Russian forces are slowly progressing toward encircling the city, making it harder for Ukraine to keep supplying its troops inside it, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on Feb. 5.

In Russian-occupied Melitopol in Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces have reportedly come to search teachers' homes and are taking away their electronic devices to prevent them from teaching remotely, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said on Feb. 5.

⚡️UK intelligence: Russia aims to russify (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-intelligence-russia-aims-to-russify-illegally-annexed-regions-via-sham-elections-in-september) illegally annexed regions via sham elections in September.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 11:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Russian propaganda TV channel RT DE (Russia Today) ceases operations in Germany.

There are no special rules for Ukraine's accession to the EU, they are "the same for everyone," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag.
Brussels is going to assess the progress of Kyiv's reforms necessary for accession to the EU in the spring.

Oleksiy Reznikov: Public anti-corruption council to be established at the Ministry of Defense

The EU has launched an embargo on Russian oil products
This means that EU member states are prohibited from buying petroleum products made from Russian oil. So far, exceptions have been made for Bulgaria and Croatia, and supplies via the Druzhba pipeline have not been sanctioned. The Czech Republic also received the right to buy Russian diesel for the time being.
In addition, the price cap on Russian oil products came into effect on February 5. The maximum price for discounted Russian oil products will be $45 per barrel, and for premium products - $100.

Pope says he is ready to meet with Zelensky and Putin

Ukrainian troops training in Spain are 'advancing quickly' - Times Radio

Russia is planning to launch a new large-scale offensive within the next 10 days, Kyiv has received "very reliable intelligence" - Financial Times, citing an unnamed Ukrainian Armed Forces adviser.

In the morning, a drone exploded over the Russian city of Kaluga. This is 150 kilometers from Moscow.
Local authorities reported that the explosion did not destroy civilian objects, but they did not mention military facilities.

‼️An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 occurred in southern Türkiye. The death toll in Türkiye has risen to 912
According to President Erdogan, more than 5,300 people were injured. 2,470 people were rescued from the rubble. A total of 2,818 buildings were destroyed.

The port of Charleston (North Carolina, USA) has begun loading more than 60 M2 Bradley armored vehicles for shipment to Ukraine. [I wonder, if they can get there in time, if they will help the defense of Bakhmut}

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 12:06

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Borodyanka was visited by the President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Joëlle Garriaud-Maylam
Mrs. Joëlle l was not only surprised by what she saw: "it's just a shock... how can this be done to civilians, families, children..." Tears welled up in Mrs. President's eyes.

In the Russian army, there are cases of refusal to participate in hostilities, — The General Staff
Thus, as of February 3, up to 600 persons of the specified category were returned from the Luhansk region to the territory of the Russian Federation.

⚡️The European Union will increase the supply of electricity to Ukraine four times, said the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
Now we are talking about the import of 2 GW of electricity.

In the temporarily occupied territories, the Russians evict people from their homes and steal vehicles
In the city of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian occupation forces forcefully evict civilians from their homes to house local collaborators who support the Russian occupation authorities

❗️General Dynamics will start production of new Abrams tanks for Ukraine
The Financial Times writes about this. It is noted that the plant is now waiting for instructions on whether to give preference to Ukraine compared to other orders from Taiwan and Poland.

Ìndia buys cheap Russian oil and processes it into fuel for Europe and the US, — Bloomberg
New Delhi is gradually taking an increasingly central place on the "oil map of the world" as it helps the West achieve its twin goals.
Firstly, in this way, against the background of sanctions, the Kremlin's energy income decreases, and secondly, it allows countries that refused to buy Russian energy carriers to prevent a "shock" from interruptions in the supply of oil.

The government supported the implementation of the Delta situational awareness platform in the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Delta is a platform that provides the military with a variety of enemy and battlefield force coordination data used to plan operations and execute combat missions.
The platform and services are built according to NATO standards, so the system is compatible with similar solutions used by the armies of the member countries of the Alliance.
Delta will also be deployed in the cloud outside of Ukraine to defend against enemy missile and cyber attacks.
More about Delta and other innovations:

The Kherson Regional Military Administration reports that another powerful generator has arrived in the city

Russia's revenues from oil and gas exports fell by about $8 billion in January
This was stated by the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol.

In the case of the resumption of air traffic between Georgia and Russia, the European Union may introduce secondary sanctions against the country, said Peter Stano, the spokesperson of the European Commission's external relations service.

Giving Ukrainians the tools they need to do the job is the fastest and, in fact, the only way to peace, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said.

Russia withdrew from the Navy the world's largest heavy nuclear submarine "Dmitry Donskoy". Now the submarine is waiting for disposal.

Poland has deployed Patriot air defense systems at the Warsaw airport

The situation in Enerhodar is critical, there is almost no heating in the city, Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on the air of the telethon.
He added that in recent days, the Russians have increasingly started abducting ZNPP workers who refused to work for Rosatom.

Japan has joined the price cap on Russian oil products, — the country's MFA

The patriarch of the church under Putin was a spy in Switzerland, – SonntagsZeitung
From 1969 to 1989, Kirill worked in the USSR State Security Committee and was an intelligence officer whose main task was to influence the World Council of Churches, after which he returned to the USSR and began to rapidly advance in the church hierarchy.

The Support Forces of the Armed Forces neutralized and destroyed more than 42,000 explosive objects, – Commander of the Support Forces of the Armed Forces, Brigadier General Dmytro Gerega

❗️In the Kherson region, the Russians fired at a civilian car: a child died
A civilian car came under enemy fire in Hola Prystan. As a result of the impact, the car was engulfed in flames. There were 3 people, among them an 8-year-old boy. He died on the spot.

At 12:24 Kyiv time (GMT +2), a new earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 was recorded in the central part of Türkiye, seismologists report.
Tremors were also recorded in Damascus, Latakia and Beirut (Lebanon).
Earlier an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 was felt in Syria and Lebanon.
❗️Ukraine is ready to send its rescuers to Turkey to help victims after a strong earthquake, – the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Kuleba

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 20:45

According to Reuters, a huge deficit in Russia this month

www.reuters.com/markets/russias-jan-budget-deficit-widens-energy-revenues-slump-2023-02-06/

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/02/2023 20:46

Summary

Russia budget deficit soars to around $25 bln in Jan

Energy revenues down 46.5%, total revenues slump 35.1%

Spending jumped almost 60% in Jan year-on-year

Western sanctions squeeze Russia's financial clout

This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

MissConductUS · 06/02/2023 23:05

Most countries that run budget deficits can borrow money to make up the shortfall. Russia's ability to do so is very limited. So they'll have to print more money, which will lead to inflation and limit their ability to import, even from countries like China and India.

MissConductUS · 06/02/2023 23:22

Here's another economic indicator:

twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1622677648630550528

Russian strip clubs and massage parlors have few customers due to the mobilization, but the ones they have are better behaved. Like good capitalists, they have cut prices and offered promotions to offset the revenue loss.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/02/2023 07:38

I imagine they will borrow money from China or India or perhaps Brazil? There was a rather scathing comment floating aroudn Twitter though last night that Russia's economy is on a level with a single one of China's provinces, Guangdong. Possibly exaggerated.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/02/2023 09:53

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid to late February.
Ukrainian officials assess that Russian forces are preparing to launch a large-scale decisive offensive in eastern Ukraine in mid-to-late February.

Select Russian nationalist voices continued to express skepticism toward Russia’s ability to launch a successful offensive past late February.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative that the provision of German tanks to Ukraine threatens Russian security.

Kremlin-appointed Russian and occupation officials continue to implement social benefit schemes that target children and teenagers in occupied areas of Ukraine to consolidate social control and integration of these territories into Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to open the door for further institutionalized corruption in Russia through legislative manipulations.

The Kremlin continues to deny Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin legitimacy and authority in Russia.

Prigozhin’s appeal in the Russian nationalist information space may also be declining as he continues to overcompensate for the culmination of Wagner’s attack around Bakhmut.

Failures of Western sanctions efforts against the provision of arms components to Iran have likely contributed to Russia’s ability to bypass Western sanctions to acquire combat drones through military cooperation with Iran.

Russian forces likely made tactical gains northeast of Kupyansk between February 4 and February 6, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced west of previous positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 5 and February 6.

Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast as of February 6 despite Russian claims that Russian forces captured Bilohorivka on February 3.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut but still have not encircled the settlement as of February 6.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.

Ukrainian forces continued limited attempts to cross the Dnipro River.

Russian conventional and irregular forces may be increasingly struggling to recruit from Russian penal colonies due to high casualties among prior penal colony recruits.

Russian forces continue to struggle with ethnic tensions and tensions between irregular forces.

Russian officials and occupation authorities may be intensifying operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Donbas.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/02/2023 10:03

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️PM: Norway plans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-norway-plans-to-give-ukraine-7-billion-over-5-years) to give Ukraine $7 billion over 5 years.

⚡️Financial Times: EU may host (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/financial-times-eu-may-host-zelensky-at-brussels-summit) Zelensky at Brussels summit.
The EU is preparing to host President Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit in Brussels on Feb. 9-10 but security concerns could obstruct it, the Financial Times reported on Feb. 6, citing its sources.

⚡️Zelensky nominates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-nominates-vasyl-maliuk-as-head-of-sbu) Vasyl Maliuk as head of SBU.

⚡️Pope Francis wants (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pope-francis-wants-to-meet-with-zelensky-putin) to meet with Zelensky, Putin.

⚡️Parliament exempts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/parliament-exempts-drones-other-equipment-from-vat-customs-duty) drones, other equipment from VAT, customs duties.
The Ukrainian parliament has adopted two bills abolishing VAT and customs duties on the import of drones, thermal imagers, collimators, night vision devices, and walkie-talkies, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported on Feb. 6.

⚡️Polish official wants decision (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/polish-official-wants-decision-on-fighter-jets-for-ukraine-to-be-made-at-munich-conference) on fighter jets for Ukraine to be made at Munich conference.
The Munich Security Conference scheduled for Feb. 17-19 will be the right format for making a decision on sending fighter jets to Ukraine, Dariusz Pawlos, Poland's ambassador to Germany, told Redaktions Netwerk Deutschland on Feb. 6

⚡️General Staff: Australian instructors start (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-australian-instructors-start-training-ukrainian-soldiers-in-uk) training Ukrainian soldiers in UK.

Survivors of Russian torture chamber in Kherson share stories of abuse ()

⚡️ Bloomberg: US prepares (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-us-prepares-200-tariff-on-russian-made-aluminum) 200% tariff on Russian-made aluminum.
The move would effectively end Russian-made aluminum imports to the U.S.

Ukraine war latest: Intelligence claims Russia likely to mobilize up to 500,000 troops to run offensive in spring-summer (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-intelligence-claims-russia-likely-to-mobilize-up-to-500-000-troops-to-run-offensive-in-spring-summer)
A written report signed by Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, clarified that the predicted 300,000 to 500,000 that Russia will likely mobilize would be in addition to the hundreds of thousands of conscripts drafted during the fall campaign in late 2022.

⚡️Foreign Minister: Ukraine to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/foreign-minister-ukraine-to-send-several-dozen-rescuers-to-turkey) several dozen rescuers to Turkey.
Kuleba added that this amount of Ukrainian rescue personnel will permit Ukraine to aid Turkey without "harming the capabilities of rescue services in Ukraine."

⚡️Ukraine's military: Luhansk Oblast teachers are reportedly forced (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-luhansk-oblast-teachers-are-reportedly-forced-to-accept-russian-passports) to accept Russian passports.

⚡️NBC: Biden expected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nbc-biden-expected-to-visit-poland-to-mark-one-year-of-russias-war-against-ukraine) to visit Poland to mark one year of Russia's war against Ukraine.

⚡️Reuters: Switzerland could lift ban (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-switzerland-could-lift-ban-of-exports-of-swiss-weapons-to-war-zones) of exports of Swiss weapons to war zones.
Switzerland could end a ban on exports of Swiss weapons to war zones as a shift in public and political opinion puts pressure on the government to end a centuries-long tradition of being a neutral state, Reuters reported.

⚡️Parliament appoints Ihor Klymenko as interior minister.
The former head of the National Police, Ihor Klymenko, has served as the acting interior minister since the death of Interior Minister Denys Monastyrsky in a helicopter crash on Jan. 18.

Parliament appoints Vasyl Maliuk as head of Security Service (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/parliament-appoints-vasyl-maliuk-as-head-of-security-service)
Vasyl Maliuk has been the acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU since July 2022, when President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the previous SBU head, Ivan Bakanov, over endemic treason at the security service. [Maliuk has a rather iffy rep too, strange that he was apptd]

Over 1000 Russian personnel dead in one day, a new and grim record. How the living hell Putin can persuade Russians to accept this is incomprehensible. Near to total news blackout, I suppose.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37