Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Oh lord, I have this in my watch later list: précis so I'm prepared? 😬

Oh it’s just the usual nonsense. Saying that NATO is a cancer that needs treated with medicine (with less than subtle hints at weapons of mass destruction), that Ukraine is full of Nazis, that Russia will win (they’re just biding their time apparently). Interviewer just keeps calling out his bullshit 😂 but I feel quite uncomfortable with the BBC allowing him to peddle Russian propaganda.

Some of my favourite claims:

• the Ukrainians are losing 8x the men that Russia are
• It’s Ukraine who are carrying out war crimes
• the Russians are careful to save and protect civilians

They also talk about a Russian defector, he just laughs and says he hopes he “goes away forever”.

Oh I would love 10 mins in a room with one of these guys, I would get stuck right in. As for the BBC they are not fit for purpose.

Do you think they really believe it or are just conditioned to perform that belief, like knowing lying

I think it’s half and half. I imagine there is almost a form of protective denial going on, as they can’t bear to properly examine the reality of their situation.

Wasn't there a specific Russian word for this, we discussed it a few threads back. It was about deliberately lying and performing it as truth as an acknowledged / accepted mode of expression. Argh what was it?!

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar its definitely not spamming, thank you for your informative information. This is one of those threads where I have little to contribute but read every day, usually when I have time to sit and comprehend unlike parking threads where you don't need to think.

I very much appreciate your posts.

@MagicFox maskirovka - the double-speak

Thanks Greenshake!

Oh dear God. Dear God. Seen truly the worst thing so far, to do with kidnapped children.

Be careful how you look at Twitter tonight....

Hope you are ok @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Think I saw the same as you. Unfortunately as with the other multitude of crimes against women and children this isn't distinct to this war. For example ISIS were well known for selling Yazidi women and children into servitude (sexual and domestic) and during the Vietnam war the sexual crimes against Vietnamese children is well documented. Many men are truly vile and its always the innocents that suffer.

Interestingly CNN talking about the Chinese spy balloon over Montana and how it’s entirely possible that the Chinese are collecting data to send to the Russians, as they have a robust intel sharing arrangement.

Some men lose the right to live. That poor child.

It seems likely that China is quietly supporting Russia. State owned businesses have been sending military aid.

Well that's shit, where are you seeing about the Chinese state owned firms?

it was reported a couple weeks ago that the US was having Words with China about some state owned businesses sending, indeed, military aid rather than just rations etc. It would take ages to find now, but there is a quiet, quite strong support for Russia it seems despite some hopeful articles claiming otherwise.

Oh poo, although I knew it would be legit coming from you. :)

Yeah, it's bad news isn't it.

I notice that the Telegram info is usually quite good but there is sometimes some wishful thinking going on. But if you observe the snippets of info here and there you can see some underlying trends and there is a consistent low key favouring and supply of help to Russia from China. It's useful for China to make the US the Big Bad Enemy under Mr Xi Jingping

Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

A Ukrainian intelligence official stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA) for a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Russian authorities blocked internet cell service in occupied Luhansk Oblast likely as part of an effort to intensify operational security to conceal new Russian force deployments in Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov supported ISW’s MLCOA assessment and possibly suggested that Russian forces have mobilized substantially more personnel for an imminent offensive.

Russian officials are continuing efforts to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian audiences in order to set information conditions for protracted war and maintain domestic support for continued military operations.
These efforts on the part of Russian officials are not succeeding in generating the likely desired effect of motivating Russians to want to participate in the war, however.

Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the Svatove area.

Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the Kreminna area on February 2.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.

Russian officials are likely trying to prepare the Russian military’s disciplinary apparatus for an influx of mobilized personnel.

Russian forces and occupation authorities continue efforts to identify and arrest Crimean Tatars on allegations that they associate with extremist movements banned in Russia.

Russian federal subjects and occupation authorities continued announcing patronage programs to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories.

+++

Some interesting comments. Ill paraphrase:

Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again,.. [there seems no] evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in eastern Ukraine .....a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season (if not before) before achieving operationally significant effects.[7]

..Reznikov stated that Ukrainian officials estimate that the number of mobilized Russian personnel is higher than the Kremlin’s official 300,000 figure.[10] Reznikov stated that the Kremlin mobilized 500,000 Russian soldiers,...

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 31 that there are currently 326,000 Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, excluding the 150,000 mobilized personnel still at training grounds...

[and really significant]
.. efforts on the part of Russian officials are not succeeding in generating the likely desired effect of motivating Russians to want to participate in the war, however. Russian State Services announced that as of February 2, the acceptance of applications for new passports has been suspended.[16] Goznak (responsible for manufacturing security products such as banknotes and identity cards) responded with a statement that it has received an inundation of applications for the personalization of foreign passports, which require special embedded microchips.[17] The shortage of microchips for passports and subsequent suspension of passport applications are in part consequences of the mass application for foreign passports in 2022, partially due to the exodus caused by partial mobilization.[18] The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that it issued over 5.4 million passports in 2022, 40% more than in the previous year.[19] The increase in passport applications indicates that social conditioning efforts to bring the “special military operation” home to Russia and reinvigorate patriotic fervor are not having the desired effect. The Kremlin need not look further than passport statistics to poll domestic attitudes on the Russian population’s desire to fight Putin’s war.[20]

[I assume that by 'application for foreign passports' they mean 'passports to be able to travel abroad'. This implies you have to have an internal passport inside Russia but that you can't travel outside on it - @MMBaranova would you know?, or anyone else?]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Chief accountant of Zhevago's company charged
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/chief-accountant-of-zhevagos-company-notified-of-suspicion-over-alleged-tax-evasion-forgery)with tax evasion, forgery.
Ukrainian billionaire Kostyantyn Zhevago is the controlling shareholder of the iron pellet producer Ferrexpo.

Ukraine's Security Service suspects Sumy Oblast officials of alleged embezzlement (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-security-service-suspects-sumy-oblast-officials-of-alleged-embezzlement).

⚡️ Ukrainska Pravda: Court arrests (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainska-pravda-court-arrests-ex-deputy-defense-minister-sets-bail-at-10-96-million) ex-deputy defense minister, sets bail at $10.96 million.
A court arrested Former Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov for 60 days, and set bail at Hr 402.6 million ($10.96 million), Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news outlet, reported citing an unnamed source.

Power Lines: From Ukraine to the World: Bonus Ep. 10: Reporting on corruption in Ukraine (pod.link/1643726015)
They discuss how reporting on corruption in Ukraine has changed since the start of the full-scale invasion and if the media should continue to hold those in power accountable or if it only distracts from the war.

⚡️Ukrainian military: Russia reportedly abducts 50 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/national-resistance-center-russia-abducts-school-seniors-from-occupied-donbas) high school students from occupied Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️EU adopts new $546 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-council-adopts-new-546-million-military-assistance-package-for-ukraine) military assistance package for Ukraine.

⚡️Reuters: Putin claims Russia ready to draw on entire arsenal (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-claims-russia-ready-to-draw-on-entire-arsenal-as-germany-sends-tanks-to-ukraine) as Germany sends tanks to Ukraine.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin criticized Germany for providing Ukraine with the Leopard 2 main battle tanks, saying he is ready to draw on Russia’s entire arsenal, according to Reuters. [yawn]

⚡️North Korea reportedly intends to send personnel (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-north-korea-intends-to-send-personnel-to-russian-occupied-donetsk-luhansk-oblasts) to Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts.
North Korea’s government intends to send up to 500 soldiers or police personnel to Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts “to take part in reconstruction efforts,” Daily NK, a South Korean-based newspaper, reported citing a source in Russia.

⚡️ US to confiscate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-to-confiscate-5-4-million-from-russian-oligarch-ukraine-may-receive-funds) $5.4 million from Russian oligarch, Ukraine may receive funds.
U.S. prosecutors may seize $5.4 million from sanctioned Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev and direct the funds towards rebuilding Ukraine, Reuters reported.

⚡️Zelensky accepts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-accepts-petition-to-dismiss-pro-kremlin-m-ps-for-consideration) petition to dismiss pro-Kremlin MPs for consideration.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has authorised (www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/3664607-zelenskij-vidpoviv-na-peticiu-pro-pozbavlenna-mandativ-deputativ-vid-kolisnoi-opzz.html) Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk to process a petition calling to strip the mandates of all former MPs of the banned pro-Kremlin political party "Opposition Platform- For Life".

️⚡️European Council President arrives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-council-president-arrives-in-kyiv-for-ukraine-eu-summit) in Kyiv for Ukraine-EU summit.

️⚡️Russia confiscates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-confiscates-over-500-ukrainian-owned-assets-in-occupied-crimea) over 500 Ukrainian-owned assets in occupied Crimea.
In a so-called "nationalization" move, Russia will seize banks, tourist and sporting infrastructure as well as private property, according to a Feb. 3 Telegram post by proxy leader Vladimir Konstantinov.

⚡️Car reportedly explodes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/car-reportedly-explodes-in-occupied-enerhodar-killing-collaborator) in occupied Enerhodar, killing collaborator.

High personnel losses and another plane down.

Ukraine and Russia reject peace offer in exchange for territories, unblocking the "tank coalition" - Neue Zürcher Zeitung

The Swiss newspaper writes that in mid-January, Biden instructed CIA chief Burns to check the readiness of Ukraine and Russia for negotiations.

Burns offered Kyiv "peace in exchange for land," and Moscow "land in exchange for peace." This is allegedly about 20% of Ukraine's territory, which roughly coincides with Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Ukraine has refused to divide its territory, and Moscow believes that in the long run it will win the war anyway.

NZZ sources claim that it was after Burns' failed diplomatic mission that the US president decided to give in to Scholz's insistence and approve the delivery of Abrams tanks. This came as a surprise to the German chancellor, so his own decision on Leopard 2 was spontaneous

I know the convo has moved on but I watched this on catch up

I thought that the UN pair or nebenzia and dimwit polyansky were the lowest that you could get but this specimen was something else

I watched that whole thing with my mouth hanging open at the sheer audacity of the laughing and lying going on

Stephen Sackur didn't go hard enough in my opinion.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

70 Ukrainian soldiers arrive in Germany for training with Patriot SAMs, German media reports, citing its own security sources.

There are more Russian special agents than police officers in Vienna, -
Christo Grozev
Christo Grozev, an investigative journalist and head of the Bellingcat project, was forced to leave the Austrian capital, where he had lived for almost 20 years.

🇮🇷 Iran officially accused Israel of drone attacks on Iranian military infrastructure on January 28. They also noted that they reserve the right to respond. Israel itself neither confirms nor denies the accusations of attacks

The European Commission will provide Ukraine with an additional 2.4 thousand generators, - EC President Ursula von der Leyen.

Ukraine is ready to guarantee that long-range missiles will not attack Russian territory - the Armed Forces have enough targets in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, Defense Minister Reznikov said

Ukraine is running out of parts and missiles for Soviet warplanes used by the Ukrainian army, a Ukrainian pilot tells the FT.

Every third Ukrainian has become a migrant
61% of Ukrainians have not changed their place of residence in almost a year of full-scale war. However, 39% were forced to move: within the region or country (82%) and abroad (18%). The vast majority are residents of the eastern regions of Ukraine, according to a study by Gradus Research.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani: SAMP/T will be deployed in Ukraine within two months

Shmyhal: Russia has caused $600-750 billion in damage and destruction to Ukraine

Former NATO general and Czech president-elect Petr Pavel believes that the West should provide Ukraine with all types of weapons except nuclear ones.

Bloomberg writes that Switzerland may reconsider its neutrality framework to create preconditions for military aid to Ukraine.
A bill has been introduced in the Swiss parliament that would allow Germany, Spain, and Denmark to provide Ukraine with Swiss-made ammunition and allow the Swiss army to transfer Leopard tanks to Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic that are due for write-off instead of the tanks these countries plan to give to the Ukrainian army.

Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that Russians are filming sexually explicit videos with abducted Ukrainian children. He published screenshots of correspondence discussing the creation of a pornographic video featuring a child who was allegedly brought from an orphanage in Ukraine. [officially reported now.]

The German government wants to buy 15 Gepard anti-aircraft systems and ammunition from Qatar. These systems are then to be transferred to Ukraine, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reports.

CIA Director William Burns said the next six months will be critical in the war in Ukraine, as Putin is betting that waning Western interest and "political fatigue" could give his military a new chance to win on the battlefield.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Together with the head of the European Commission, the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, arrived in Ukraine.

🕯Ukraine conducted one of the largest exchanges of bodies: it was possible to return about 150 fallen defenders

‼️The European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on the EU to start preparing negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union
▫️For – 489 deputies
▫️Against – 36
▫️49 abstained

Denmark plans to buy Leopard 1A5 tanks from Germany and transfer them to Ukraine, – OLFI publication
According to journalists, Denmark does not have a single tank of this model in service but wants to buy 20 units from the German company FFG for transfer to the Armed Forces.

🇮🇱Israel will review its policy regarding the supply of weapons to Ukraine, Prime Minister Netanyahu has given a corresponding order, — Israeli portal Walla

⚡️ We invite Ukraine to our platform for joint gas purchases, – President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen
Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko emphasized that Kyiv is interested in joint purchases of gas, as well as in the provision by EU countries of their underground storage facilities for the creation of strategic reserves.

The United States called for the non-admission of athletes from Russia and Belarus to the Olympic Games

They shot and raped captives with a mop, – a Russian military officer told BBC journalist Steve Rosenberg about the war crimes of the Russians

"Mriya" will be added to the Microsoft Flight Simulator game to raise money for the recovery of the destroyed Ukrainian plane

📸 Ukrainian photographer Yevhen Maloletka became the photographer of the year according to the version of the British newspaper The Guardian.
His photos from Mariupol, surrounded by Russians and bombed out, were published by almost all publications in the world.

Kazakhstan increased oil exports bypassing Russia, – Reuters

Norway can send a part of its increased oil revenues to military aid to Ukraine, the country's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said

The CIA and the White House deny that the US allegedly offered Ukraine to give up part of its territories for the sake of peace
Sean DeWitt, the deputy spokesman for the National Security Council of the White House, called the report of the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung about such an initiative "inaccurate."

In 11 months of full-scale war, Russia lost about 200,000 soldiers killed and wounded, — The New York Times
As the publication writes, such figures are voiced in their assessments by American and European officials.

The next package of US military aid to Ukraine will include Boeing ground-based bombs with GPS guidance, — Bloomberg

⚡️ In Lithuania, €1 million was collected for radars for Ukraine in an hour, and the IT company Tesonet decided to double this amount, Lithuanian journalist Andrius Tapinas reports.