Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Could be empty threats, but if not then I expect it to be information-warfare related.

Something like the Russian-sponsored Koran-burners in Sweden, which has just been very successful in getting Turkey to keep Sweden out of NATO.

(The Koran-burning wasn't the only issue, but it certainly turned up the heat of the argument. I haven't been following in detail, but I would guess it was used to create popular outrage in Turkey where other arguments against Sweden were failing to capture the public imagination.)

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Putin asks Russia's Defense Ministry to prevent (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-asks-russias-defense-ministry-to-stop-shelling-of-belgorod-oblast) shelling of Belgorod Oblast.
Russian state-owned media reported on Feb. 1 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had asked the Defense Ministry to focus on preventing the shelling of Belgorod Oblast, which is located on the border with Ukraine.

⚡️Bulgarian parliament recognizes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bulgarian-parliament-recognizes-holodomor-as-genocide-against-ukrainian-people) Holodomor as genocide against Ukrainian people

⚡️Media: EU to train (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-eu-to-train-30-000-ukrainian-soldiers) 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers.
The European Union plans to train 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers in total, double the initial 15,000 goal, some EU officials announced on Feb. 1, according to German media Redaktzions Netzwerk Deutschland.

⚡️Ex-deputy minister of culture, 6 others suspected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ex-deputy-minister-of-culture-6-others-suspected-of-dubious-asset-takeover) of dubious asset takeover.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine said on Feb. 1 that seven suspects, including two former Culture Ministry officials, allegedly illegally took over 14 buildings and structures on the outskirts of Kyiv worth over $1 million in total.

⚡️US uncovers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-uncovers-global-sanctions-evasion-network-helping-russias-defense-sector) global sanctions evasion network helping Russia’s defense sector.
The U.S. imposed blocking sanctions against 22 individuals and entities across multiple countries allegedly involved in the network.

⚡️Zelensky: Georgian government is killing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-georgian-government-is-killing-saakashvili) Saakashvili.
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Feb. 1 said he believes the "Georgian government is killing" ex-Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently in jail.
Saakashvili, who is now serving a six-year sentence on charges of abuse of power, has been transferred to the intensive care unit due to his deteriorating health, his press secretary Giorgi Chaladze said on Feb. 1.

⚡️El Pais: Borrell says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/el-pais-borrell-says-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-not-on-e-us-agenda) sending fighter jets to Ukraine not on EU’s agenda.

Spain to send 20 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/spain-to-send-20-m-113-armored-personnel-carriers-to-ukraine)

⚡️Investigators expose (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/investigators-expose-1-billion-embezzlement-scheme-at-ukrnafta-ukrtatnafta) $1 billion embezzlement scheme at Ukrnafta, Ukrtatnafta, which were previously affiliated with oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.

⚡️Zelensky on anticorruption crackdown: ‘Justice will be ensured (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-on-anticorruption-crackdown-justice-will-be-ensured).

⚡️Security Service: Top police officer suspected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/security-service-top-police-officer-suspected-of-leading-prostitution-ring) of leading prostitution ring in Kyiv.
The network was allegedly led by a deputy head of the migration police department of the National Police of Ukraine. The investigators didn't disclose the officer's name.

Russian missile strike on residential building in Kramatorsk kills at least 2, injures 7 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-missile-reportedly-hits-a-residential-building-in-kramatorsk-donetsk-oblast)
A Russian missile strike on a residential building in Kramatorks killed at least two people and injured seven in the late evening of Feb. 1, Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko reported.

⚡️Police: At least 5,990 civilians, including 200 children, still in Bakhmut (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/donetsk-police-over-5-000-civilians-still-in-bakhmut)

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv says Russia prepares offensive in several areas (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-says-russia-prepares-offensive-in-several-areas)

⚡️Democracy Index 2022: Russia 'acquiring (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/democracy-index-2022) many features of dictatorship.'
Russia recorded the biggest drop in score of any country in the world in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine and further repressions in Russia, according to Democracy Index's annual report.
Russia scored 2.28 out of 10, a 22-point change from the previous year, ranking 146th out of 165 states included in the report.

⚡️Politico: Pentagon doesn't think (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-pentagon-doesnt-think-ukraine-can-retake-crimea-soon) Ukraine can retake Crimea soon.

⚡️European Commission President, EU foreign policy chief arrive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-commission-president-eu-foreign-policy-chief-arrive-in-kyiv-for-ukraine-eu-summit) in Kyiv for Ukraine-EU summit.
European Commission Head Ursula von der Leyen and European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said they arrived in Kyiv for the upcoming Ukraine-EU summit.
On the eve of the summit set to take place on Feb. 3, consultations will be held between the European Commission and the Ukrainian government.

⚡️Budget Commissioner: EU to announce (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/budget-commissioner-eu-to-announce-400-million-euro-assistance-package-for-ukraine) 400 million euro assistance package for Ukraine.

[somewhat grimly I wonder what happens to all the killed. If there are attempts to identify them and inform Russia, or if they are gathered up for communal burial. A lot of them won't be identifiable]

UNITED24 Media

The 24th Ukraine-EU summit will be held on February 3 and will be the first in which Ukraine will participate as a candidate for membership in the European Union.

We are on the eve of a very active phase. There will be very active activity in both February and March, – Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Britain bought 46 M113A1-B armored personnel carriers for Ukraine from the Belgian defense company OIP Land Systems and transferred them as part of a defense support package.

During winter, the frontline becomes especially tough, especially when the temperature is teetering at zero degrees Celsius. So how does the weather influence the battleground?
Watch full video:

⚡️ Defense Minister Reznikov, together with his French colleague Lecorne and the Thales Group company, signed a memorandum [contract?] on the supply of MG-200 radars for Ukrainian air defense, which will allow the detection of enemy drones and missiles, including ballistic ones.

Russia should find out where its borders are, – Georgian President Salomé Zourabichvili in an interview with Bloomberg
The head of state believes that the peace agreement following the results of the Russian-Ukrainian war should include a clause on the de-occupation of Georgian territories.

The Russians are trying to expand the geography of the offensive in the Lyman direction, and are making powerful attempts to break through Ukrainian defense, – Deputy Minister of Defense Malyar

❗️Ukraine will be one of the topics of Blinken's visit to China, Voice of America reports.Blinken will be the first high-ranking US official to visit Beijing since 2018.
At the same time, officials of the two countries are preparing for another personal meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this year, the Voice of America reports citing its anonymous sources among high-ranking officials.

⚡️Bulgaria and Serbia have begun construction of a gas pipeline to reduce gas dependence on the terrorist state of Russia.

💥The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed a very rare (a total of 12 units exist) Tor-M2DT air defense system, which is in service with the Russian Arctic brigades

❗️Putin gave the order to completely seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March, - Main Intelligence Directorate

❗️Austria expels four Russian diplomats on suspicion of espionage

Norway is studying the issue of transferring the CV90 multi-purpose armored vehicle to Ukraine, — the Norwegian television channel TV-2

Iran has quietly converted a highly enriched uranium plant. Tehran has violated its obligation to provide information about such steps, – IAEA Director Raphael Grossi, reports Der Spiegel.
"During an unannounced inspection of the Fordow plant, IAEA inspectors found that the enrichment machines had been 'significantly' modified since November," Grossi said.

In the temporarily occupied Horlivka, the Russians are forcing drivers to exchange driver's licenses for Russian-style documents, which cannot be done in the absence of a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation, – the General Staff
"The invaders set a deadline of May 1, 2023, for the employees of transport companies. Those who do not meet the requirements will be fired," the summary says

Live:Ukraine Telegram

🇪🇸 Spain may provide Ukraine with up to 6 Leopard 2A4 tanks in the first delivery, El País reports. It is also planned to train 10 Ukrainian crews in Spain.

On February 6, Spain will send 20 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

🇯🇵 The Japanese government has allocated $170 million to restore Ukraine's critical infrastructure damaged by Russian missile strikes.

The Pentagon is skeptical about Biden's refusal to give Ukraine F-16 fighter jets. Officials do not rule out that he will eventually either approve the transfer of US fighter jets from the United States or allow other countries to do so - The Washington Post

Washington Post Telegram

In his regular evening address on Tuesday, Zelensky said officials were “preparing new reforms” that would “change the social, legal and political reality in many ways, making it more human, transparent and effective,” adding that “details will be announced later.”

• President Zelensky praised an ongoing anti-corruption drive after Ukrainian authorities raided multiple locations tied to incumbent and past members of government. The push comes days ahead of a summit in Kyiv between Ukraine and the E.U.

• The former head of procurement at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry was charged with embezzlement for allegedly buying nearly 3,000 bulletproof vests of inadequate quality for more than $2.7 million.

Thread from the ever-excellent ChrisO
AT ChrisO_wiki

1/ The Wagner Group's 'human wave' attacks, which have left the area around Bakhmut and Soledar strewn with the bodies of dead Wagner fighters, have been described in detail by a Russian source. It explains the brutal calculations behind Wagner's seemingly suicidal tactics. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 'Russian Criminal' website, which is linked to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, reports what a source – likely within Wagner – has told it about the mercenary group's approach to using recruited convicts to attack Soledar, sustaining huge casualties along the way.
3/ "The most experienced and well-prepared group of stormtroopers comes first, with excellent equipment. It's comprised of eight men, each with a 'Bumblebee' [possibly meaning an RPO-A Shmel thermobaric rocket launcher, effective against fortified positions].
4/ "Whatever happens, the group must reach the firing line. "Whatever happens" is not a turn of phrase, but a task, the failure to complete which will end in execution [by Wagner], regardless of any [mitigating] factors.
5/ "Once fire contact has been made [with the enemy], the group digs into positions. Digging in is taught as meticulously as combat operations, so by military standards, digging in is almost instantaneous and very effective.
6/ "The area the group has reached is marked (a rag on a tree or something similar). Even if the group is demolished to zero, the next one already realises where the previous one has reached. The main task is to make contact, dig in and transfer positional data to the artillery.
7/ "Artillery can fire from an hour to several hours. And here is the first cause of conflict with the [Russian] army: if there are not enough shells, instead of a successful attack you get hopeless meat from the stormtroopers.
8/ "The first group is followed by the second, also eight men, but with much lighter equipment. Their task is to jump into the positions as soon as the artillery shells finish their work.
9/ "Sometimes there is an order not to wait for the shelling to end – the 'Musicians' are so disciplined that they will go anyway, because they stand a fighting chance of surviving.
10/ "Nowadays there are not enough shells and because of that the first groups hardly survive – the main blow is coming at them and even training does not solve all the problems there.
11/ "Even before, losses in the first group were inevitable, but now the survivability of groups as a whole has fallen to critical values. And to replace them with just anyone increases costs even more, and the influx of people has now collapsed.
12/ "Groups of 8 people go in waves - usually 4 waves are prepared for the attack. But there have been cases in Soledar where it took 14 waves to take one area. Of course there were survivors, but the casualties were a hundred or more. That's for one section.
13/ "Groups have drone operators to lead the whole group into position to clear the area. At the same time, the lightly wounded do not slouch and do not lie down – for that, they could shoot you in the legs and leave behind.
14/ "This tactic is the only possible way to achieve results and advance in such conditions. The line of defense in Soledar has been cleverly constructed for years, the army command has neither the possibility nor the desire to advance there.
15/ "That's basically why the task was handed to Wagner.

From the outside, it may look unreasonable to take such a high casualty rate deliberately, but try to look at it in a different way: even 4 waves of 8 men – that is 32 men killed at the worst.
16/ "Throw in even a regiment – they will lose much more and even they will fail to cope with the task. In percentage terms they will lose less, but in absolute numbers, more. Therefore losses of over 50% for an attack are not bad, if there is a result.
17/ "There is much less manpower for assault groups now, shells are also in short supply. And if the artillery is suppressed, then no one will call the stormtroopers back anyway, they just mop up without cover.
18/ "If there are more groups in reserve, you can send in 5, and 6, and 7 waves, just to finish the result. This is not an army, here it is better to have more initiative than to underdo it.
19/ "The 'Musicians' have their own training – with a crazy intensity, if you are without experience – but they teach a very narrow range of tasks.
20/ "And the newcomers from the penal colonies are very well disciplined: first they are shown video executions, then very soon they encounter their first real examples, and then they get used to such discipline completely.
21/ "Another plus from this [in contrast to the Russian army] is that it is not the practice in Wagner to reassign those [qualified as] artillery gunners to the stormtroopers, unless as punishment. Good gunners are also worth their weight in gold.
22/ "The army will not be able to replace Wagner in hot areas, this is not even considered. In modern warfare, the number of soldiers is not an indicator at all. But, again, the question remains open – what to do about the shortage of shells (120 and 80 mm)?
23/ "There is a concept of "efficiency relative to the situation", and so this efficiency can be high, but if the situation is deadlocked, then the main issue is still not resolved.
24/ "Exchanging people for territory is beneficial when the territory is small and people in reserve are plentiful. If, on the other hand, you have to chop for every metre and people have become scarce, problems begin to arise.
25/ "As a result, losses are growing and progress slows down. The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone. At the beginning of the war there was talk of Syrian mercenaries, some even came. But they are not fit for this war.
26/ "Among the 'Musicians' they say aloud that "we're about to put the squeeze on and take everything here." But among themselves, everyone expects that we will be removed from the assault on a number of directions.
27/ "And even if a large mobilisation begins right tomorrow, it will not be possible to immediately recruit refuseniks in the required numbers, but they still need to be run in, brought to the desired condition, …
28/ "because otherwise it will not even be possible to spend them effectively. It takes time, it takes a lot of shells. And we have neither one nor the other."

someone post something or Ill feel terrible about completely spamming the thread !

Please continue to spam away.

Your posts are so informative I've rarely got anything worth adding

and is all I've got. Please continue to provide the spam! It's consumed most gratefullyl

(But only if you feel up to spam-provision. I know it's a lot of work for you.)

Yes absolutely please keep spamming, all good stuff!

That isn't spam; that's informative and useful information! For which I am grateful, though I don't say so often enough.

Putin with his nuclear threats again 🙄

What’s he said now? Or is the threats about having friends on US soil?

I haven’t had much contact with the relatives in occupied Kherson oblast recently for a range of reasons: not wanting anyone getting in trouble for being in contact with me, and having split who we are in contact with with my brother being two of them. However, last time, discussing money and the switch to Rubles in general transactions I was told that if you can get to a bank you can still change Dollars and Hryvnia for Rubles. The latter I found surprising. After all this time a bank that is under Russian state oversight is taking in Ukrainian currency. What is it ultimately doing with it? If anything.

twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1621170657773109248?s=20&t=k-kXWxH89oYhOtpqUrYb3Q

Speaking at an event to mark the Battle of Stalingrad - link is to a tweet by Max Seddon.

I read that as some sort of cyber threat.

I was just about to say this. He likes to keep everyone guessing doesn't he

Oh that’s an interesting take, maybe you’re right. Even if it does refer to nukes I’m 99.9% sure it’s absolute bollocks. 😂

It's the same kind of threat: vague enough to stoke the worst fears, could mean anything

11 months ago I would have analysed every word of that speech to the last letter. Now, as you rightly say, I just can’t give that missing 00.1% any oxygen.

the dollars are going to be useful I suppose. About the roubles .. will they give out hyrvnias, or are those being put out of circulation?

(and thanks!)

Sergey Karaganov on Hard Talk - what a twat. Why do they give these people airtime?

What’s that bell going on about now?