Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Washington Post Telegram

Here’s the latest from Ukraine:

• Von der Leyen said an international center for the prosecution of the crime of aggression in Ukraine will be established in The Hague.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised an ongoing anti-corruption drive as “movement toward justice,” after the home of oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky and construction companies were raided in Kyiv and top officials were investigated and dismissed Wednesday.

• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sidestepped questions about Ukraine’s request for F-16 fighter jets during his visit to the Philippines.

• Russia’s foreign minister appeared to suggest that Moscow would need to launch an offensive in response to the Western supply of weapons in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday in his nightly address that Russia’s strategic defeat is “already clear,” though he acknowledged it could still launch offensive operations.

• The same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin described his invasion of Ukraine as akin to the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany in World War II. He made the comment during a speech in Volgograd, formerly known as Stalingrad, the site of a Soviet victory over invading German forces that marked a turning point in that war.

• Russian forces have intensified ground attacks on Ukrainian positions near Kreminna, an eastern Ukrainian town about 60 miles from the Russian border, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, citing reports from the Ukrainian military.

• The E.U. will “deepen further our support and cooperation” with Kyiv, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

From War Translated, an outstanding Twitter account that translates snippets of info from Russian into English:

According to Girkin's today's update, the Russians were unable to prevent Ukrainian reinforcements to Bakhmut, indicating Ukrainian resolve to hold the city. Other areas like Mar'inka, Avdiivka, Vuhledar - are under Ukrainian control.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar “foreign passports” indeed are the passports that allow their holders to travel internationally. There are also “internal” passports which are a requirement for anyone aged 16 and over, these are the ID documents that you need for everything. Getting married, moving house, getting a job, voting.
although I was born in the USSR thankfully by the time I turned 16 Ukraine was freshly independent and my first passport was a Ukrainian one

This literally means “masking” - I am not familiar with this word being used in this context although I’ve never been trained as a KGB agent 😁

i think they are all just liars and now they have been lying for so long about everything the only thing they can do is to continue lying, Lavrov being the chief liar.

It turns out that the ISW agrees with me about the Russians lacking sufficient combat power to conduct a successful offensive this spring. I won't quote the whole thing since there's no paywall.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 2, 2023

Putin may have overestimated the Russian military’s own capabilities again, as ISW previously assessed.[6] ISW has not observed any evidence that Russian forces have restored sufficient combat power to defeat Ukraine’s forces in eastern Ukraine and capture over 11,300 square kilometers of unoccupied Donetsk Oblast (over 42 percent of Donetsk Oblast’s total area) before March as Putin reportedly ordered. ISW previously assessed that a major Russian offensive before April 2023 would likely prematurely culminate during the April spring rain season (if not before) before achieving operationally significant effects.[7] Russian forces’ culmination could then generate favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer 2023 counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries.[8]

It's nice when the experts agree with you. 😁

Thanks.

If it's true that Putin is considering refusing to let people travel, this could be the first indication of closing the borders.

New US aid package announced

and

@MissConductUS there was a recent mention of Biden ‘offering’ 20% of Ukraine to Putin to stop the war. Was this reported in the US?

I did see that and don't find it credible in the least. The White House has denied it in the strongest terms

White House Denies Joe Biden Offered to Give Ukrainian Territory to Putin

Apparently, it's all based on an off-the-record statement by an anonymous German politician. Let's just say that the Germans haven't covered themselves in glory from a counter-espionage perspective. It's also just rediculous to suggest that Biden would assume the Ukrainians would go along with it.

Ducks, I'm pleased to see more Claymores in this package. They're brilliant for stopping human wave attacks.

Fun Claymore fact - they're named after the Scottish sword.

A very big Scots sword.

I know! I look at the diddy Claymore mine and think, "That's a bit wee..."

Hmm interesting. Thanks @MissConductUS Some German politician trying to get the hares running perhaps. I was surprised as it’s no one’s call but the Ukrainians. They’ve made their position pretty clear on this matter.

Small but mighty, as they say. They use C4 plastic explosives as the charge. The small size makes them easier for troops to carry and deploy in large numbers and makes it harder for the enemy to see them.

That video shows a few of them detonating, starting at 1:15 in. It's pretty impressive.

That looks like a pretty good amount of stuff. What do.you think it will amount to on the ground?

@MissConductUS or @notimagain or perhaps a couple of others might be able to forecast that.

I'm not sure if you were directing this to Ducks or just to anyone, but I'll take a swing at answering.

Some of it supports current operations, like medical supplies, antitank missiles, and assorted ammunition. Some are intended to improve air defenses, like the Hawk missile batteries and the heavy machine guns with thermal sights. Some are intended to equip the UAF to go on the offensive, like the precision-guided missiles (they're the GLSDB munitions discussed previously) and the MRAP vehicles.

So it's a bit like Christmas morning for the Russians. 😁

🙏🙏🙏

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform critical nationalist milbloggers.

Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line with an intensified pace of operations near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.

Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains in southern Ukraine.

Western officials reportedly estimate that Russian forces have sustained almost 200,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine.

Russian officials continue to rely on government-organized non-governmental organizations operating in occupied territories to create the veneer of grass roots support for Russian occupation.

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Germany approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/germany-approves-delivery-of-older-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine) delivery of older Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine in addition to Leopard 2s

⚡️Bloomberg: Germany, Sweden in talks
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-germany-sweden-negotiating-over-air-defense-for-ukraine)on giving surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.

⚡️SBU: Medical commission member helped (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-military-medical-commission-deputy-head-helped-men-evade-service) conscription-age men evade service.

⚡️Media: Netanyahu tells (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/media-netanyahu-says-he) Macron he's willing to send military aid to Ukraine. [well, let's wait until we see it eh?]

⚡️Von der Leyen: EU will work to allocate one billion euros (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/von-der-leyen-eu-will-work-to-allocate-one-billion-euros-for-ukraines-reconstruction) for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

⚡️EU provides (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-provides-ukraine-with-ambulances-new-off-road-trucks-for-military) Ukraine with ambulances, new off-road trucks for military.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell reported that 94 off-road trucks, 50 ambulances, and 13 new off-road military vehicles had already arrived in Ukraine under the European Peace Facility (EPF).

⚡️Russia shells (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-shells-kherson-destroys-shopping-mall) Kherson, destroys shopping mall.

Ukraine war latest: EU readies to step up sanctions against Moscow as Ukraine prepares for new Russian offensive (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-eu-readies-to-step-up-sanctions-against-moscow-as-ukraine-prepares-for-new-russian-offensive)

⚡️US allocates $5.4 million
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-allocates-5-4-million-confiscated-from-russian-oligarch-to-help-rebuild-ukraine)confiscated from Russian oligarch to help rebuild Ukraine.

⚡️Additional sanctions were announced on Feb. 3 as the U.S., the G7, the European Union and Australia placed a price cap on “seaborne Russian-origin petroleum products,” the U.S. Department of Treasury said.

⚡️Official: Nearly 30,000 Russian soldiers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-nearly-30-000-russian-soldiers-in-and-around-mariupol) in and around Mariupol

⚡️116 Ukrainian POWs, bodies of foreign volunteers, returned to Ukraine in prisoner swap with Russia.
The released POWs include defenders of Mariupol, arrested partisans from Kherson Oblast, and snipers captured in Bakhmut, according to Andrii Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office.
The bodies of British volunteers Andrew Bagshaw and Chris Parry, killed in Soledar in January, were also returned, Yermak said.
Russia's defense ministry reported 63 Russian soldiers returned from Ukrainian captivity in the swap.

Wrong losses sorry! these are the accurate ones for today:

UNITED24 Media Telegram

40 countries will oppose Russia's participation in the 2024 Olympics, – Minister of Sports of Poland Bortnichuk

The European Commission published a report on the compliance of Ukrainian laws with EU legislation
Legislation in the areas of energy policy, foreign policy, security and defense policy received the highest rating. Ukraine's readiness to join the EU Customs Union was also highly appreciated.
Legislation in other areas is at the primary and secondary levels and needs to be revised.

EU countries have agreed on a price ceiling for Russian fuels, lubricants and diesel fuel, – Reuters
The ceiling for diesel fuel and gasoline will be set at $100 per barrel. For fuel and lubricants – 45 dollars per barrel.
Journalist Rikard Jozwiak writes that an agreement has also been reached to revise the ceiling on oil prices in March, which is now set at $60 per barrel.

The weapons package for Ukraine includes GLSDB precision bombs, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said
Quote: "This will give Ukrainians the opportunity of a larger radius of action (up to 150 km), which will allow them to conduct operations to protect their own country and return sovereign territory."

The SAMP/T-MAMBA air defense system will be delivered to Ukraine in the spring of 2023, — Minister of Defense of France

The US leaves the possibility of using long-range American missiles to strike Crimea at the discretion of Kyiv, Pentagon representative Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said.

❗️The US demands that Turkey stop exporting goods to Russia, – Bloomberg
According to the publication, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Brian Nelson held talks with the Turkish authorities, during which he stated that tens of millions of dollars worth of sanctioned goods were coming to Russia through Turkey and some of them could be used in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Gazprom classified the statistics after exports fell to their lowest level since Soviet times.
Gazprom stopped publishing operational data on gas production and export, which in 2022 broke the record for the entire history of the Russian gas industry.
In conclusion: in 11.5 months of 2022, Gazprom reduced production by 20% and lost 45% of exports

American volunteer Pete Reed died while helping civilians in Bakhmut
Reеd's death was announced by his humanitarian group Global Response Medicine.
A veteran of the US Marine Corps, he began his humanitarian career helping hurricane victims in New Jersey and previously led medical teams during the fighting for Mosul, Iraq.

The US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on the board of directors of Iranian drone manufacturer Paravar Pars, – CNN

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️The information spread by Russian Telegram channels about the use of a boy abducted in Ukraine for "intimate meetings" is a fake by the occupiers, the National Police reported.
[dont know what's going on here, but frankly given other reports about orphanages and adoptions it seems all too likely that this is indeed going on]

The former head of the Kherson Regional State Administration, Hennadiy Laguta, has been served with a notice of suspicion.
He is accused of misappropriating an SUV that a local businesswoman gave him for use in the spring of 2022. She gave the car "for official purposes," thinking that she was helping during the war. However, the official decided to privatize the car through a private notary. Now he faces up to 12 years in prison with confiscation of property.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian troops will not withdraw from Bakhmut - the city will not be surrendered.
"No one will surrender Bakhmut. We will fight as long as we can," he said at the Ukraine-EU summit.

SBU exposes officials of the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority on embezzlement of over UAH 90 million

Germany has delivered a lot of military aid to Ukraine ... even if Scholz has all the PR adeptness of a hibernating toad

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html