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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 00:07

The Bradleys won't likely be deployed on their own in Ukraine. The UAF has hundreds of Russian (Soviet-era) tanks they can work with, along with artillery, drone recon, etc. Some tasks they could take on without tanks, like attacking enemy trenches with infantry troops that they transport into battle. They slaughtered Russian T-72 tanks in operation Desert Storm. The 25mm chain gun fires AP (armor piercing) rounds that can penetrate most Russian tanks' side or top armor. The Brad has two externally mounted antitank guided missiles with reloads carried within the vehicle.

Their armor will protect against antipersonnel mines but not most antitank mines. The latter are usually deployed in specific areas, like the obstacle belt shown in the video. The Brads wouldn't enter such an area until it had been cleared by other specialized vehicles.

blueshoes · 01/02/2023 00:31

Thanks, MissConductUS. Most informative as always. I realised you had already described some of the Bradleys capabilities earlier on, so apologies to make you repeat. Ukraine has been crying out for tanks so much I forgot it has its own (and possibly those recycled from the enemy). Victory to Ukraine!

MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 01:33

No problem blueshoes, I'm happy to talk about the Brads anytime. The role they play is probably clearer to you after watching that video.

The UAF captured A lot of Russian tanks during the Kharkiv offensive last fall. The Russians retreated in such a hurry that they were simply abandoned.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 10:13

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

The introduction of Russian conventional forces to the Bakhmut frontline has offset the culmination of the Wagner Group’s offensive and retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city. ISW's December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate.

ISW does not forecast the imminent fall of Bakhmut, and it is extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces will be able to conduct a surprise encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut.

Russian military command is overestimating Russian military capabilities to advance rapidly in Donetsk Oblast and in the theater.

Russian conventional forces may be replacing expended Wagner PMC forces by relocating them from Bakhmut to the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may be attempting to fully supplant Wagner forces near Bakhmut to frame the traditional Russian military command structure as the sole victor around Bakhmut, assuming Russian forces take the city.

Ukrainian officials continue to support ISW’s assessment that an imminent Russian offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA) and further suggested that Ukrainian forces plan to launch a larger counteroffensive.

Prominent Russian milbloggers continue to expose Russian military failures in Ukraine through increasingly public and elevated platforms.

Russia continues to weaponize counterterrorism laws to justify domestic repressions.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on January 31.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Donetsk Oblast front line.

Russian forces are unlikely to benefit significantly elsewhere in eastern Ukraine from their localized offensive around Vuhledar.

Russian forces are likely prioritizing sabotage and reconnaissance activities over territorial gains in southern Ukraine.

Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov acknowledged Russian mobilization failures in an attempt to frame implementation failures and policy violations as resolved.

Russian occupation authorities continue to use youth engagement and education programs to consolidate social control of occupied territories.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 10:31

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Austria, Hungary agree (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-ministers-austria-hungary-agree-not-to-supply-weapons-to-ukraine) not to supply weapons to Ukraine.

⚡️Budanov: Approximately 326,000 Russian soldiers
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/budanov-approximately-326-000-russian-soldiers-currently-fight-in-ukraine)currently fight in Ukraine.
According to Budanov, only 9% of Russia's long-range Kalibr missiles remain. Those numbers can't be independently verified.

How Western companies make a fortune on brokering deals for Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/investigations/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-how-western-companies-make-a-fortune-on-brokering-deals-for-ukraine)

⚡️UK government rules out
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-government-rules-out-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine)sending fighter jets to Ukraine.
"The U.K.'s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly," explained the spokesman.

⚡️Human Rights Watch calls on Ukraine to investigate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/human-rights-watch-calls-on-ukraine-to-investigate-alleged-use-of-anti-personnel-landmines) alleged use of anti-personnel landmines.
“Russian forces have repeatedly used anti-personnel mines and committed atrocities across the country, but this doesn’t justify Ukrainian use of these prohibited weapons,” says Steve Goose, Arms Division director at Human Rights Watch.

⚡️DFC CEO announces intent to mobilize over $1 billion (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/dfc-ceo-announces-intent-to-mobilize-over-1-billion-in-private-capital-to-support-ukrainian-economy) in private capital to support Ukrainian economy.

⚡️France to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/france-to-provide-more-radar-systems-missiles-artillery-to-ukraine) more radar systems, missiles, artillery to Ukraine.
France will help Ukraine acquire Ground Master 200 radar systems for air defense, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu told his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov during a meeting in Paris on Jan. 31

⚡️US sanctions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-sanctions-iranian-entities-for-supplying-drones-to-russia) Iranian entities for supplying drones to Russia.
The U.S. on Jan. 31 sanctioned seven Iranian entities for making drones for Russia to attack Ukraine.

⚡️Treasury: No sign that US funds were misused (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/treasury-no-sign-that-us-funds-were-misused-in-ukraine) in Ukraine.
The U.S. Treasury Department said on Jan. 31 there is no indication that U.S. funds had been misused in Ukraine, Reuters reported.

⚡️Norway's 5-year aid package for Ukraine to be revealed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/norways-5-year-aid-package-for-ukraine-to-be-revealed-on-feb-7) on Feb. 7.

Ukraine war latest: Russia claims control over Blahodatne, intensifies attacks near Vuhledar (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-russia-claims-control-over-blahodatne-intensifies-attacks-near-vuhledar)

⚡️Politico: Delivery (kyivindependent.com/national/politico-delivery-of-f-16-aircraft-to-ukraine-not-ruled-out-despite-bidens-no) of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine not ruled out despite Biden's 'no'.

⚡️PM: Greece won't send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pm-greece-wont-send-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine) Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that his country would not send its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine because "they are absolutely necessary for (Greece's) defense posture."

⚡️ Reuters: Washington prepares (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-washington-prepares-over-2-billion-in-military-aid-longer-range-weapons-for-ukraine) over $2 billion in military aid, longer-range weapons for Ukraine.
The U.S. is preparing over $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine, including anticipated longer-range rockets, Reuters reported on Jan. 31, citing two U.S. officials privy to the information.

⚡️Defense minister acknowledges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-minister-acknowledges-flaws-with-military-procurement) flaws with military procurement.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov on Jan. 31 promised to improve military procurement through reforms after his ministry was caught in a corruption scandal.

⚡️ Reuters: Poland aims (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-poland-aims-to-reduce-training-time-for-leopard-2-tank-crews-to-5-weeks) to reduce training time for Leopard 2 tank crews to 5 weeks.

⚡️ISW: Russian forces retain initiative (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/isw-russian-conventional-forces-retain-initiative-on-bakhmut-frontline) on Bakhmut front line.

⚡️El Pais: Spain prepares (kyivindependent.com/news-archive) to supply 4-6 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Russia's war forced millions of Ukrainians to flee abroad. How many will return? (kyivindependent.com/national/russian-war-forced-millions-of-ukrainians-to-flee-abroad-how-many-will-return)
Over 4.9 million Ukrainians have been granted temporary protection or equivalent status in Europe since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war on Feb. 24. According to the United Nations refugee agency, in total, more than 7.9 million Ukrainians have fled their country since then.
As of late August, the majority of Ukrainian refugees said they were planning to return after hostilities end, according to a poll by the Razumkov Center.
But experts say that as time goes by and refugees build new lives abroad, Ukraine may not be able to expect most of them back home.

Enormous Russian losses again.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 10:42

edition.cnn.com/2023/01/30/europe/wagner-norway-andrei-medvedev-ukraine-intl

short article on the Wagner defector. Not really indepth. Read elsewhere that he's facing deportation back to Russia.

Natsku · 01/02/2023 10:49

Turns out anti-NATO protestors planned to burn a Koran in Finland too, fucking us over, but they spoke about it on social media and the police saw and let them know its actually illegal to do that in Finland so they changed their minds Grin
I still think we'll wait for Sweden before joining.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 10:59

Live Ukraine Telegram

Renewable energy sources have outpaced gas in electricity generation in the EU for the first time, according to a study by the Ember Center.
According to the report, wind and solar sources generated 22% of electricity in the EU, while fossil gas accounted for 20% and coal for 16%.

Ukraine will receive up to 140 Western tanks in the first wave of contributions from international partners - Foreign Minister Kuleba

The UK government is close to transferring €2.6 billion from the sale of the Chelsea football club Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to a humanitarian aid fund for Ukraine. [there have been claims this is untrue]

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lobby for aid to Ukraine among representatives of the US Republican Party, Reuters reports. He will convince lawmakers to continue supporting Ukraine. Johnson will meet with a group of Republican senators this week.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it was necessary to increase support for Kyiv. The reason for this was an analytical report on the course of the war, which showed that the Kremlin was benefiting from the protracted conflict. As a result, London will revise its support policy so that Ukraine has more resources to win the war as soon as possible. [there have been a few hints that atm Russia kinda has the upper hand. IN the next period more Russian soldiers will be sent to the war, but then more equipment is coming to Ukraine too]

Possibly in the coming weeks. Russia is preparing for maximum escalation, NSDC Secretary tells Sky News.
"Russia is preparing for maximum escalation. It is gathering everything possible, conducting exercises and training."

The creator of Rybar channel who now has a live TV program admits that Russian VDV forces lost 50% of personnel by September last year. [it seems that some of the best Ukraine units have also lost 50-80% though :( ]

The head of the Servant of the People (“Sluga Narodu”) faction, Arakhamia, announced the dismissal of the entire leadership of the State Customs Service.
"The country will change during the war. If someone is not ready for change, the state will come and help them change," he said.

Austrian President arrives in Kyiv
"The fact that this trip to Kyiv takes place immediately after I officially take office is a deliberate manifestation of solidarity and support for the people of Ukraine," Van der Bellen said in a video shot on the train on the way to Ukraine.

notimagain · 01/02/2023 11:12

The U.K.'s Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets are extremely sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly," explained the spokesman.

I think more accurately I'd say would be a case of it taking several days/weeks for an already experienced fast jet pilot to learn to fly accurately (i.e. the up/down, left/right, faster/slower bit) but months to learn to operate well enough to effective in combat.

and...if there's no certainty in what type (if any) of western fast jet is going to be delivered it's questionable whether there is any point in the Ukrainian Air Force depleting it's remaining pilot establishment by sending pilots of to train on ,say, the F-16 just in case.

(I hope behind the scenes there's a bit more certainty about what might be available than is being depicted in the MSM)....

Natsku · 01/02/2023 11:20

Renewable energy sources have outpaced gas in electricity generation in the EU for the first time, according to a study by the Ember Center.
According to the report, wind and solar sources generated 22% of electricity in the EU, while fossil gas accounted for 20% and coal for 16%.

This is one good thing that has come out of this, more use of renewables and the realisation that it was foolish to rely on Russian fossil fuels. Hopefully this will be a turning point in energy production, with more and more renewable energy sources being used.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 13:41

finally able to do the rest of the roundup ...

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Olaf Scholz said that peace negotiations are possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, and there will be no peace concluded behind the backs of Ukrainians.

We have the plan to return Crimea by the summer of 2023, – Budanov
Also, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence in an interview with the Washington Post stated that:
▪️ An attack from Belarus is unlikely;
▪️ The Russian army will focus on the occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions;
▪️ Putin is terminally ill with cancer and has twins;
▪️326 thousand Russians are currently fighting in Ukraine;
▪️Putin will not use nuclear weapons, this will lead to the disintegration of Russia;
▪️Russia has a 9% stockpile of Kalibr missiles;
▪️ A Ukrainian Intelligence network operates on the territory of the Russian Federation;
▪️ The head of intelligence supports the Russians, "who understand that Russia must be different";
▪️ 10 assassination attempts were made on Budanov.

❌ The International Federation of Journalists initiated the expulsion of the Union of Journalists of Russia, – Reuters [doing much better than the Olympic commission then]

🤦‍♂️ Propagandist Kiselev said that in Europe people are forced not only to wash less but also to eat worms and cockroaches.

In St. Petersburg, hackers displayed on the screens of the Hermitage a message about the crimes of the Russians in Bucha.

The Ministry of Defense of Israel handed over three additional bulletproof Mercedes Sprinter ambulances equipped with armor from the Israeli company Plasan Re'em to the emergency services of Ukraine, — The Times of Israel

Ukraine, if it succeeds, during the spring-summer offensive of 2023, will break through a land corridor from Russia itself to Ukraine, former director of the CIA, commander of the American group in Iraq, General David Petraeus, told The Washington Post in an interview about a possible scenario of the return of Crimea to Ukraine

❗️Ukraine terminated agreements with the Russian Federation on air transport and on the principles of cooperation in the field of production and supply of aviation equipment.

Chances to make it alive were less than 10% — Ukrainian pilots knew it from the very beginning.
Yet they took the risks, and kept flying to a death trap in Mariupol to deliver medications, food, water and evacuate wounded people from the besieged Azovstal steel plant, over and over again.
They survived.
Learn about rescue mission and flights in Mariupol many deemed impossible on youtube

🤡 PMC "Wagner" published a video in which it calls on Americans to join their ranks and fight against Ukraine.

Ukrainian volunteers have become a vast force boosting Ukraine’s Armed Forces and their morale.
According to the Ukrainian Center for Public Opinion Research, the number of volunteers in Ukraine has increased from five per cent in 2021 to 33 per cent today. Furthermore, some 86% of Ukrainian residents practiced donations during the last year, and the average donation is now nine times higher than it was in 2021.

89 Ukrainian athlets and coaches were killed by Russia's full-scale onslaught on Ukraine.

❗️Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel is studying other options for aid to Ukraine, except for humanitarian aid, — CNN

❗️The Russian Federation is preparing for maximum escalation in the coming weeks, — Danilov
The Secretary of the National Security Council believes that the enemy will try to attack from the north, south and east.
And of the 320,000 mobilized, approximately half may be involved.

Israel does not exclude the supply of the Iron Dome air defense system, – СNN [believe that if we see it]

Putin's place is in front of the international criminal court
The heads of the foreign affairs committees of the parliaments of 19 countries and the EU issued a general statement on the need to hold Russia accountable for international crimes in Ukraine. They advocate the creation of a special international tribunal

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 13:41

UNITED24 Media Telegram, long post

Russia planned to use Ukrainian nuclear power plants to implement its military plans, – Business Insider with reference to a new report by the British think tank (RUSI)

Moscow saw the NPP as a means to achieve its larger goals. And a key role was to be played by the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is considered the largest in Europe.

First, they wanted to use them as bases for Russian troops and equipment, as well as ammunition depots. Russian officers were also to deploy a command headquarters on the territory of the NPP.

Secondly, the Kremlin considered the occupation of power plants as a way to take the Ukrainian energy system under complete control.

And, finally, Moscow wanted to take control of Ukrainian nuclear facilities in order to have the "leverage of blackmail" against European countries. By threatening Europe with radioactive contamination after potential accidents, the Kremlin hoped to deter direct or indirect foreign interference.

MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 14:22

Natsku · 01/02/2023 11:20

Renewable energy sources have outpaced gas in electricity generation in the EU for the first time, according to a study by the Ember Center.
According to the report, wind and solar sources generated 22% of electricity in the EU, while fossil gas accounted for 20% and coal for 16%.

This is one good thing that has come out of this, more use of renewables and the realisation that it was foolish to rely on Russian fossil fuels. Hopefully this will be a turning point in energy production, with more and more renewable energy sources being used.

There have been other good things to come out of it too. A strategic weakening of Russia, deterrence of China from invading Taiwan and strengthening of NATO.

When NATO was founded in 1947, it was just a treaty obligation. There was no actual structure to it. It wasn't until North Korea invaded South Korea that it made NATO members realized that they better get ready to actually defend against a Russian invasion. That's when NATO created a permanent command structure and started actually planning and conducting joint training operations. NATO as we know it would not exist if not for the Korean War. It's undergone a real revitalization now, thanks to the strategic genius of Putin.

Natsku · 01/02/2023 14:39

Yeah that's true, people realise now the importance of NATO and the need to make sure its ready.

MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 16:25

Reuters is reporting that the next US military aid package will include funding for the GLSDB/missile that can be fired from HIMARS. I suspect production has already started as it just involves integrating two existing components and it was proposed by Boeing months ago.

U.S. readies $2 billion-plus Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons

This is critical for shaping the battlefield before the next Ukrainian offensive. The GLSDB has almost twice the range of a standard HIMARS missile at 94 miles, with the same precision targeting. The Russians will have to move ammo dumps, command posts, vehicle yards, etc., almost 100 miles from the front or risk having them destroyed. Troops can't possibly be that far away, so they'll have to disperse them to prevent their barracks from being attacked. I don't see how they could conduct a large-scale offensive under these conditions.

It's jolly good news, in other words. 😄

Surplus2requirements · 01/02/2023 16:39

@MissConductUS which is why I fear the big Russian push may come sooner rather than later

Fladdermus · 01/02/2023 17:26

What's the status of the Zaphorizia power plant now? Is it back under Ukrainian control?

Igotjelly · 01/02/2023 17:27

Fladdermus · 01/02/2023 17:26

What's the status of the Zaphorizia power plant now? Is it back under Ukrainian control?

No, still under Russian control but with a Ukrainian workforce.

MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 18:05

Surplus2requirements · 01/02/2023 16:39

@MissConductUS which is why I fear the big Russian push may come sooner rather than later

Possibly, but the conditions aren't favorable for it. Most of the terrain in eastern Ukraine hasn't frozen hard enough to allow for large-scale, long-distance movement of armor and troops. That's one reason why the lines haven't changed much recently. The window for a hard freeze will be over by mid March, then we're back to solid mud until May or possibly June. By then the UAF will have a lot of new weapons in place.

I also don't think they have the combat power to do it anytime soon. They've been trying to take Bakhmut since last May. The human waves they've been throwing at it have lacked armor support. If they do take it, the UAF will simply fall back to the next defensive line a few miles west.

Putin certainly isn't giving up, and he doesn't care a bit about mass casualties, but the degraded state of his forces constrains him.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/02/2023 20:37

On the other side of that @MissConductUS there is talk of a large number of soldiers from the 'partial mobilization' coming off the training ground and into Ukraine now. Thousands from their training in Belorus and more from Russia. I know there are equipment shortages but there are shortages in Ukraine too and the sheer numbers of soldiers may be a dangerous threat.

MissConductUS · 01/02/2023 21:10

That is quite true, Ducks, and that's how they may finally push the UAF out of Bakhmut. The human wave tactics aren't well suited for large-scale offensives, though. They run out of momentum and aren't sustainable over long distances. The men are on foot, after all. And that's why it's important to ensure that the Ukrainians maintain an edge with superior equipment, leadership, and intelligence. And they need to continue to attack and disrupt Russian logistics, as I'm sure they will.

I'm not saying the Ukrainians have this all wrapped up; far from it. I think their qualitative edge outweighs the larger troop numbers on the Russian side. Time will tell.

blueshoes · 01/02/2023 21:47

I suppose one advantage of a human wave at this time is they can walk over soft ground which is not passable to armour. They also have soft bodies. How horrible.

Putin is terminally ill with cancer and has twins;

Strange juxtaposition of 2 unverifiable and unrelated facts.

Igotjelly · 02/02/2023 10:25

From the Guardian, Lavrov this morning:

"Lavrov says Russia has plans to overshadow pro-Ukrainian events
In a wide-ranging interview with state TV, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that Moscow had plans to overshadow pro-Ukrainian events arranged by western and allied countries around the world to mark the anniversary of Russia sending its armed forces into Ukraine on 24 February.

In the interview on Thursday, Lavrov said Russian diplomats were working on something to ensure western-led events in New York and elsewhere were “not the only ones to gain the world’s attention”, without providing details, Reuters reports."

Another offensive do we think?

TokyoSushi · 02/02/2023 10:37

Oh my days. In some ways, I actually find Lavrov even scarier/more sinister than Putin. I dread to think about what they have planned. Or it could all be complete lies and empty threats, again...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/02/2023 10:57

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February and/or March, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA).

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be setting conditions for further Russian cross-border raids into northeastern areas of Ukraine, likely in an effort to further domestic information operations and pin Ukrainian forces against northern border areas.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks to regain lost positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 1.

Russian forces are continuing to carry out unsuccessful disruption missions on islands in the Dnipro River delta in Kherson Oblast in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from gaining ground on the islands.

Russian officials plan to propose a moratorium on the public procurement law to simplify spending procedures amid an increasingly costly war effort.

The Wagner Group’s prison recruitment efforts may have slowed in previous months.

Crimean partisans may have conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in occupied Crimea on January 30.

[apparently the prisoners that Wagner try to recruit have become wise to the fact that only 1 in 10 survives and don't fancy the odds. They are now trying to recruit among immigrants and Eastern Steppe people]

(interesting point about the Russian arms export situation. The Int Updates are coming up with some useful background stuff during this lull)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
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