Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

[MagicFox]

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

Ducks, there are several types of demining vehicles. One flails the ground ahead of it with long, heavy chains. Another shoots what looks like a firehose into the air ahead of it. It's filled with explosives. When it settles on the ground it explodes and detonates any mines in the area. Both of these would work on uneven ground.

They absolutely do simulate vehicle losses in training. You might have seen in that video that they were attacking in a two up, one back formation. The rear unit has the reserve vehicles to replace what it lost in the front units. It gets really complicated, which is why the training takes so long. But if you can do it correctly, it's very hard to defend against.

Rodger that on the alphabet soup. 😀

@MissConductUS

An incredible piece of footage.

Absolutely the last thing I expected to see on Mumsnet - how to conduct combined arms operations against defended positions.

It is a bit unusual for MN, isn't it? Let's hope no one reports it. I've probably violated a talk guideline somehow. 😁

Ducks, one of the mine-clearing vehicles I mentioned is used in the video, at about 9 minutes in. It's called a MICLIC (mine-clearing line charge).

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M58_MICLIC

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1620168262377181186 Russian newsreader from Moscow raped by Khadrovites, while in Melitopol filming a propaganda piece

That was a fascinating video, @MissConductUS
So many moving parts, so much unpredictable risk.

Just watching Putin vs the West on BBC2, would highly recommend for a good general background for us keen to learn, really fascinating.

Another fan of the combined arms breach video. Thanks @MissConductUS More great CGI. 20 minutes went by surprisingly fast. I keep reading how offensive forces have to be many times stronger than defensive forces and how complex a combined arms operation is and that armies do joint exercises. The video made it all make sense.

It looks super complex and requires meticulous planning for a lightning attack. The risk of friendly fire must be high without solid comms. Now I know what commanders do sitting back in their tents.

I have salted the video away to watch again.

It’s very good isn’t it? The book ‘Overreach’ by Owen Davies is a great read too, half price in Waterstones recently.

TokyoSushi · Today 22:16
Just watching Putin vs the West on BBC2, would highly recommend for a good general background for us keen to learn, really fascinating.

It really was. Seeing everything that happened before in this way you wonder how it wasn’t absolutely clear at the what Putin would do next. Something that stood out was Obama calling Russia “regional power” in an official speech.

And then on BBC 4 there was “Russia Trauma Zone 1985-1999” Part 1 and 2. It is full of extraordinary original film footage. It was so late I couldn’t watch it all, but will catch up later. It was altogether utterly fascinating. You wouldn’t believe Chernobyl, for example, and the poor people in sellotaped together suits crawling along and trying to isolate the core.

That was good. I'll watch the 2nd and 3rd episodes tomorrow.

I'm not as clever as a lot of the posters in this thread and take quite a simplistic view of things

It struck me that putin is a petulant baby and the other leaders should have stamped on him sooner instead of placating

Yes agree that it was a brilliant, simple explanation of a massively complex situation.

It was fascinating to see how in 2014 everybody danced around him like he was a massive petulant child they were trying to talk down from a tantrum.

The contrast this time where people have said 'fuck you, you absolutely deserve everything that's coming to you and we are completely done' is really stark.

In view of the overnight news about no F-16s (at least direct from the US), it looks like there continues to be a very firm policy in place with regard to not providing systems that have the potential to reach targets in Russia itself...

What now? A request for A-10s (those really can't go deep and have to stick with the ground forces) or another type?

Talks of discussions over France/Rafale, but President Macron seems to share the US concerns over attacks on Russian territory...

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive, supporting ISW’s assessment that an offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).

Iranian state media reported that Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks on January 29.

Russian forces continued ground attacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna as Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian force concentrations in rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks across the Donetsk Oblast front line.

Russian forces continued to make marginal territorial gains near Bakhmut.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continued measures to professionalize the Russian military as it faces continued backlash against these measures.

Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to target Crimean Tatars in an effort to associate anti-Russia sentiment with extremist or terrorist activity

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️NATO chief: North Korea provides (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nato-chief-confirms-north-korea-providing-russia-with-missiles) Russia with missiles.

Prominent 24-year-old pilot killed on combat mission in Donbas (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/prominent-24-year-old-pilot-killed-on-a-mission-in-donbas)
The 299th tactical aviation brigade, named after Lieutenant General Vasyl Nikiforov, announced on Jan. 30 that it had lost one of its best officers, 24-year-old Major Danylo Murashko.
The pilot was killed while on a combat mission in the east of Ukraine on Jan. 27. His plane was shot down by a Russian fighter.
According to the brigade, Murashko tried to divert his aircraft so that it didn't fall on residential buildings in the town of Shabelkivka, Donetsk Oblast. The effort cost him time and made him fly lower, which is why he could not eject safely in the end. Murashko "died like a hero," the brigade said. [he had carried out I think 141 missions]

⚡️ Russian media: Moscow moves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-moscow-moves-additional-troops-to-kursk-oblast) additional troops to Kursk Oblast.

⚡️ Wallace: Ukraine to receive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wallace-ukraine-to-receive-british-challenger-2-tanks-before-summer) British Challenger 2 tanks before summer.
Ukraine will receive the 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks pledged by the U.K. “this side of the summer,” U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Jan. 30.

⚡️ France, Australia launch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/france-australia-launch-joint-artillery-shell-production-for-ukraine) joint artillery shell production for Ukraine.
France and Australia intend to produce several thousand artillery shells for Ukraine in a joint multi-million dollar project, French Defense Minister Sébastian Lecornu said on Jan. 30.

⚡️ Zelensky: Denmark joins (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-denmark-joins-ukraine-grain-initiative) Ukraine grain initiative.

⚡️US Transportation Command: Over 60 Bradley (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-transportation-command-over-60-bradley-fighting-vehicles-en-route-to-ukraine) fighting vehicles en route to Ukraine.

⚡️CNN: Biden says US won't send F-16 jets (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-biden-says-us-wont-send-f-16-jets-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Jan. 30 that he wouldn't send American fighter jets to Ukraine, even though the U.S. is ramping up military assistance in the form of artillery and tanks.

⚡️Reuters: Brazil's Lula stops short (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-brazils-lula-stops-short-of-condemning-russian-invasion-during-scholz-visit) of condemning Russian invasion during Scholz visit.

⚡️General Staff: Russia turns 2 maternity hospitals (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-turns-2-maternity-hospitals-in-luhansk-oblast-into-field-hospitals) in Luhansk Oblast into field hospitals.
Russia has turned two maternity homes in the city of Luhansk into field hospitals for wounded Russian soldiers amid heavy losses, drastically reducing the number of available places to give birth, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning briefing.

⚡️Ukraine moves up (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-moves-up-in-global-corruption-rating) in global corruption rating.
Ukraine earned 33 points out of 100 in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) for 2022, one point higher than the year before.
"Although it still scores low, war-torn Ukraine is one of few significant improvers on the CPI, having gained eight points since 2013," Transparency International said.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russian forces plan concentrated assault (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/british-intelligence-russian-forces-plan-concentrated-assault-near-pavlivka-and-vuhledar) near Pavlivka, Vuhledar.

⚡️Norway will deliver tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/norway-will-deliver-tanks-to-ukraine-as-soon-as-possible) to Ukraine ‘as soon as possible.’
The decided upon number of tanks could arrive in Ukraine as soon as the end of March.

⚡️Security Service arrests (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/security-service-arrests-pro-russian-council-member-on-suspicion-of-treason) pro-Russian council member on suspicion of treason.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reports arresting a Siversk City Council member for alleged treason.The suspect is accused of collecting intelligence for the Russians on Ukrainian troop movements in neighboring Bakhmut since October 2022.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russia is transferring new units to Belarus, and some of the trained ones are returning to the territory of Russia, – representative of the State Border Service Andriy Demchenko
In general, according to the representative of the State Border Service, there are currently about nine thousand Russian troops on the territory of Belarus.

Two foreigners who spied for Russia were detained in Slovenia, – Delo
The Intelligence and Security Service of Slovenia discovered in Ljubljana two citizens with Latin American passports (at least one
Argentine), who rented an office in the city and worked for the special services of the Russian Federation.
It is believed that two Russian agents were in the service of Russian military intelligence. They worked under a complex "sleeper agent" program.

France confirmed the agreement with Italy on the purchase of 700 missiles for the SAMP-T air defense system, which are being prepared for transfer to Ukraine, – Reuters

My relationship with Putin is based on honesty and mutual respect, – President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Germany has decided from which battalion it will take 14 "Leopards" for Ukraine
According to Westfalen Blatt, the Bundeswehr will hand over tanks belonging to the 203rd Tank Battalion of the 21st Tank Brigade of the German Defense Ministry.

"Ukraine does not know the reasons for the explosions at Iranian facilities," said Nikolenko, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The Russians currently do not have the resources for a full-fledged offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction, Yevhen Yerin, the spokesman of the Tavriyskyy group of troops

Poland and other countries can issue an ultimatum to the IOC in case of admission of Russians and Belarusians to the 2024 Olympics.

France will consider training Ukrainian fighter pilots, — Politico

🇩🇰 Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen confirmed that the country will transfer all its CAESAR self-propelled artillery installations to Ukraine [19 of them]

"China wants a protracted war in Ukraine because it will divert the attention of the West from them"
Meanwhile, China will receive energy from the Russian Federation at low prices. This is stated in the article "The Washington Post" with reference to the head of the Foreign Ministry of Taiwan.

❗️Stoltenberg did not convince South Korea to provide military aid to Ukraine

The German government is seeking to limit imports of Russian liquefied natural gas as an additional effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies, Bloomberg reported, citing government documents.

Renewables overtake gas in EU electricity generation for first time, — Ember study
According to the report, wind and solar generate 22% of electricity in the EU, while fossil gas generates 20%, and coal 16%.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has already signed 16 contracts with Ukrainian companies for the production of drones, said the head of the ministry, Oleksiy Reznikov.
This year, 20 billion hryvnias (about $5 million) will be spent on the purchase of drones, he added.

Danylo Murashko [the killed pilot] was killed on January 27, diverting a downed plane from residential buildings.
He had 141 combat missions - he destroyed about 70 armored vehicles, more than 80 vehicles, about 30 tankers and about 600 occupiers.

Politico: NATO wants to extend the mandate of Secretary General Stoltenberg for another year due to the war in Ukraine. According to the publication's sources, the option to keep Stoltenberg is currently the best option. In order to elect a new secretary general, the consent of all 30 member states is required. However, other sources say that there is a desire for a "breath of fresh air" in the Alliance. But in the current environment, NATO members may want to play it safe and keep Stoltenberg.

The international human rights organization Human Rights Watch said (www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/31/ukraine-banned-landmines-harm-civilians) that the Ukrainian military threw thousands of banned anti-personnel mines at the Izyum area, causing civilian casualties. The organization demanded an investigation into the use of PFM mines ("petal mines").
The report says that Ukrainian troops mined areas near Russian military facilities, while Russians are actively using anti-personnel mines everywhere.
Ukraine is a state party to the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention, which completely prohibits the use of such weapons. Russia refused to sign the treaty.

Link: telegra.ph/Russia-is-probing-the-Ukrainian-defense-along-the-entire-front-line-and-is-in-a-hurry-to-do-so-before-tanks-are-delivered-to-Ukr-01-30

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visited Ukraine.

Washington Post Telegram

The U.S. imports uranium from Russia. What if sanctions end that?
(www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/21/uranium-imports-russia-nuclear/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Russia’s state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, is suspected of supplying the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel, The Washington Post reported Friday. The military goods were sent to more than half a dozen major weapons makers, aiding Moscow’s continuing assault on Ukraine.
That has elevated prospects that the United States, and possibly the European Union, might place sanctions on Rosatom, which exports uranium for use in nuclear reactors.
U.S. reliance on Russian nuclear fuel is substantial, but American companies have some options if Rosatom is hit with sanctions.

Here's the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his plea for Western nations to supply Ukraine with more potent weapons, including the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, to help Kyiv defend against Russian attacks from places far from the front line.

• Germany and Poland are set to begin tank training programs for Ukrainian forces in days as they rush deliveries for spring. Ukraine has said that it needs at least 300 tanks to support a large-scale spring offensive.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz defended the decision to supply tanks, but he said Germany would avoid sending troops or bringing NATO into a war against Russia, according to a government readout of Scholz’s interview with Tagesspiegel.

• Britain’s Defense Ministry said Ukrainian tank operators have arrived in the United Kingdom to receive training on how to use the Challenger 2 tanks that London recently pledged to send Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for Russian athletes to be barred from competing in next year’s Olympics while his country remains under attack.

• Zelensky described the situation on the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region as “very tough.” Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other areas in the region are under “constant Russian attacks,” he said, as Russian forces attempt to break through Ukraine’s defense.

• Ukrainian tank operators have arrived in the U.K. to receive training on how to use the Challenger 2 tanks that London recently pledged to send Kyiv.

• Delays by Western allies in sending high-end military materiel to Ukraine — including long-range weapons, advanced air defense systems and battle tanks — have hampered Kyiv’s ability to mount larger counteroffensive operations and take advantage of opportunities offered up “by flaws and failures in Russian military operations,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said.

• Russian strikes hit the cities of Kherson and Ochakiv in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military said early Tuesday local time. Civilians were among the victims, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.

Russia says it will impose Moscow time in occupied areas of Ukraine
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/27/russia-moscow-time-occupied-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)In the latest attempt to cement its illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, Russia announced Friday that it will impose Moscow time in the parts of four Ukrainian regions now under control of its invading forces.
Russia has already been issuing its passports and forcing the use of its currency, the ruble, in occupied areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — the four Ukrainian regions that President Vladimir Putin declared to be annexed and absorbed into Russia in violation of international law.
Now, Russia said it will move the clocks forward by one hour so those areas are on Moscow time.

ReleaseTheDucks, thanks for the key takeaways

My relationship with Putin is based on honesty and mutual respect, – President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdogan

How can a relationship with Putin be based on honesty. That must make both of them liars.

yvw

I thought the same!

It amazes me how every leader thinks their relationship with him is based on some sort of real feeling .... while he manipulates them all.

And they ~know~ his training! He must be mighty charismatic in actual contact.

lol, Putin must make the other leaders feel speshul. They think he is oh so misunderstood, he would not lie to them and they will be the one to change him.

The sort of denial and mental gymnastics needed to convince yourself it is ok to date a serial philanderer.

He must be mighty charismatic in actual contact.

Wonder what other people have said when they met him in person. Apart from his dour unsmiling demeanour, not feeling it. Maybe there is something about him that makes people want to seek his approval.

He's trained to a high degree in all the tricks to make people think he is on their side - mirroring body language, setting up expectations and training people to conform to them so they fall into a pattern of compliance, showing understanding, all the rest. Unfortunately it built on a genuine native talent for it too, I think

Many many many of us talked about "appeasement" in 2014, and mentioned having pieces of paper in hand. I think anyone who read Private Eye back then more or less knew what would be coming; the question was never about "whether", only "when".

The first group of more than 60 Bradley IFVs is crossing the Atlantic on their way to Ukraine. They left last week, so I'd expect them in Ukraine (or Germany if they'll be used there for training) in ten days or so. This article has some great pictures.

USTRANSCOM sends more than 60 Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine

These will get into the fight much sooner than the western tanks, and I expect they'll have a big impact on the battlefield.

In other good news, the Russians admit that their Airborn troops have suffered 50% casualties since the beginning of the war. 20% to 30% casualties will render ground forces combat ineffective.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1620409293353918464

Fantastic. US is once again first to the front with their kit. Really hope the Bradleys help Ukraine to break through. Having watched the combined operations video, are the Bradleys good on their own? What if there are mines?