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Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 22:55

The Swiss have reportedly taken steps to allow the export of ammunition to Ukraine. there were rumours of them trying to change their laws so they could do this a couple weeks ago. We need to see it to believe it though.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 23:04

Germany is going to give the Leopards to Ukraine!

Greenshake · 24/01/2023 23:06

👏👏👏

MissConductUS · 24/01/2023 23:14

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 22:55

The Swiss have reportedly taken steps to allow the export of ammunition to Ukraine. there were rumours of them trying to change their laws so they could do this a couple weeks ago. We need to see it to believe it though.

It's a start, at least;

Swiss body proposes removing barriers to re-export arms to Ukraine

I think the Swiss will find that now that the stalemate over tanks is resolved, it will be their turn in the international spotlight.

MissConductUS · 25/01/2023 00:02

Here's a really good thread from American General Mark Hertling on what it will take for the Ukrainians to integrate the new armor with their current forces and use it effectively. TLDR, it won't be easy or quick.

twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1618005965118537732

notimagain · 25/01/2023 07:18

Sounds like very very good news though personally I'm still keeping fingers crossed until Chancellor Scholz's makes his statement today..

twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1617933695855230988?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 07:44

Heh, that's a good one @notimagain

Natsku · 25/01/2023 08:14

Oh that is good news

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 25/01/2023 09:50

I see the Russians are threatening to nuke everyone over the tanks so clearly it is absolutely the right thing to do.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 10:02

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 25/01/2023 09:50

I see the Russians are threatening to nuke everyone over the tanks so clearly it is absolutely the right thing to do.

Lol!

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Key Takeaways

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov continued efforts to portray himself and the traditional Russian military command structure as the true defenders of Russia.

Russian outlet RBK claimed on January 23 that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev as the Southern Military District (SMD) commander and Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov as the Western Military District (WMD) commander.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Russian forces made marginal territorial gains near Bakhmut.

Russian sources claimed, likely to distract from the lack of progress in Bakhmut, that Russian forces launched an offensive around Vuhledar.

Russian forces likely continued to conduct limited and localized ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast but likely did not make territorial gains, further undermining Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov’s prior territorial claims.

Ukrainian special forces conducted a raid across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on January 23-24.

Russian authorities are likely continuing efforts to mobilize ethnic minorities to fight in Ukraine.

Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) is reportedly increasing the production of drones and loitering munitions.

Ukrainian partisans targeted a member of the Zaporizhia occupation administration.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 10:10

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Court puts ex-deputy minister suspected (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/court-puts-ex-deputy-minister-suspected-of-corruption-under-house-arrest) of corruption under house arrest. [there's a huge anti-corruption sweep going on atm]

⚡️Switzerland may allow (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/switzerland-may-allow-re-export-of-its-weapons-to-ukraine) re-export of its weapons to Ukraine.
On Jan. 24, the Swiss parliament’s lower house security policy commission approved an initiative to allow other countries to re-export weapons made in Switzerland to Ukraine.

⚡️Netherlands may provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/netherlands-may-provide-ukraine-with-18-leopard-2-tanks) Ukraine with 18 Leopard 2 tanks.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that the Netherlands is considering buying 18 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, which it leases from Germany, to provide them to Ukraine.

⚡️NYT: Zaluzhnyi inherits $1 million, donates (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-zaluzhnyi-inherits-1-million-donates-it-to-ukraines-armed-forces) it to Ukraine's Armed Forces.
"I gave my whole life to the Armed Forces. And I had no doubt about what I should do with the inheritance," said Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, as cited by his press service.

⚡️Russia wants to create (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-wants-to-create-24-penal-colonies-in-occupied-territories-of-ukraine) 24 penal colonies in occupied territories of Ukraine.

Ukraine war latest: Zelensky warns Russia 'building up strength' to prepare for 'revenge' (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-zelensky-warns-russia-building-up-strength-to-prepare-for-revenge)
President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Jan. 24 that Russia appears to be "building up strength" to prepare for revenge on the battlefield.

⚡️Zelensky signs law (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-signs-law-increasing-consequences-for-desertion) increasing consequences for desertion.
President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law on Jan. 24 strengthening the criminal liability of military personnel for desertion or the failure to comply with combat orders. [this implies that it's a real problem. There have been hints at times that some soldiers are really not motivated and are also badly supplied. Given the sudden mobilization of many and the sudden call for huge logistical support, it's not really surprising]

⚡️New York Times: Pentagon to increase (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/new-york-times-pentagon-to-increase-artillery-production-sixfold-for-ukraine) artillery production sixfold for Ukraine.
The United States Army's top acquisition official told the New York Times that U.S. production of 155-millimeter shells would increase to 90,000 a month within two years.

⚡️State Department: Corruption cases among Ukrainian officials do not involve (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/state-department-corruption-cases-among-ukrainian-officials-does-not-involve-us-aid) US aid. [which would ofc have big political implications]

⚡️General Staff: Wagner Group recruiting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-wagner-group-recruiting-incarcerated-ukrainian-citizens-for-russias-war) incarcerated Ukrainian citizens for Russia's war.
The Kremlin-controlled Wagner Group is recruiting imprisoned Ukrainian citizens who were forcibly taken to Russian prisons, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning briefing.

⚡️EBDR, Netherlands to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ebdr-netherlands-to-provide-ukraine-with-25-million-euros-in-aid-for-agricultural-sector) Ukraine with 25 million euros in aid for agricultural sector.

Think it's a new high for personnel losses. 1 more plane down too. The recent aircraft losses are rumoured to be around Bakhmut.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Greenshake · 25/01/2023 10:10

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 25/01/2023 09:50

I see the Russians are threatening to nuke everyone over the tanks so clearly it is absolutely the right thing to do.

As surely as day follows night…..I have a suggestion as to where they can put their weapons 🙂

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 10:17

UNITED24 Media

The world's first (!) IT apiary will be created in the Kyiv region
A team of engineers, beekeepers, and IT specialists equipped the hives with sensors that transmit data about condition of bees both internally and externally

Finland is ready to train the Ukrainian military and supply tanks to create a large tank unit in Europe for the needs of Ukraine

The hands of the Doomsday clock were moved forward 10 seconds. It now shows 10 seconds to midnight, symbolizing a global catastrophe. To a greater extent, the scientists' decision is related to the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine.

⚽️UEFA will not remove the disqualification from Russian teams until the end of the war in Ukraine. In addition, the Russian city of Kazan will lose the right to host the UEFA Super Cup in 2023.

The new $125 million US aid package includes the purchase of high-voltage transformers, mobile gas turbines, and substation repair equipment, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said

Citizens of Great Britain, Andrew Bagshaw, and Christopher Perry, who disappeared near Soledar, died during an attempt to evacuate the city, Sky News writes with reference to the statements of their families.
A car of British volunteers was hit by an artillery shell when they tried to rescue an elderly woman.

IAEA employees did not find military equipment at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, the head of the agency, Rafael Grossi, said in the European Parliament.
The day before, the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia Sergiy Naryshkin stated that Ukraine is stockpiling weapons and ammunition provided by Western countries, including missiles for HIMARS MLRS, on the territory of its nuclear power plants.

Today is the birthday of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy!

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhny

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 10:23

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇳🇴 Norway considers supplying Ukraine with up to 8 Leopard 2 tanks out of 36 available - Dagens Næringsliv

Portugal is preparing four Leopard 2A6 tanks for delivery to Ukraine, Correio da Manhã reports, citing government sources.

Washington Post Telegram

Finland’s foreign minister signals country could join NATO without Sweden
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/24/finland-sweden-nato-turkey/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Finland still hopes to join NATO alongside its neighbor Sweden but could be forced to reconsider if Stockholm’s application is stalled, the Finnish foreign minister said Tuesday.

Here's the latest from Ukraine.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/25/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)- The U.S. and Germany are expected to unveil plans Wednesday to provide heavy battle tanks to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is expected to meet with his cabinet early Wednesday before making a formal announcement on the Leopard 2 main battle tanks.

  • Meanwhile, U.S. officials say the Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks, despite concerns that they might require too much training and maintenance for Ukraine. The development prompted a swift rebuke from Russia’s ambassador to the U.S., who called any decision by Washington to supply such tanks to Kyiv a “blatant provocation.”

- The U.S. tanks are unlikely to arrive by spring, [it seems they are thinking of autumn] when Russian forces are expected to begin a new offensive, which means Ukraine will need to rely on other armored vehicles on the battlefield in the near term.

notimagain · 25/01/2023 10:53

Just before midday Europe time and CNN announcing as breaking news:

"Germany has confirmed that it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, following weeks of diplomatic pressure to do so."

(My emphasis on the will)

French rolling news (BFMTV) also carrying the same braking news...

Not yet seen anything official from the German Chancellor..

notimagain · 25/01/2023 10:54

braking.....🙄..breaking !!

notimagain · 25/01/2023 10:57

CNN, midday, starting to give more detail:

"Germany has confirmed that it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, following weeks of diplomatic pressure to do so.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the move in a cabinet meeting Wednesday, according to federal government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit.
"The Federal Government has decided to make Leopard 2 battle tanks available to the Ukrainian armed forces," said Hebestreit in a statement.
"This is the result of intensive consultations that took place with Germany's closest European and international partners. This decision follows our well-known line of supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability.”

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 25/01/2023 12:25

Day 335, January 24th. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 25 January 2023

⚡️Battlefield overview

⚡️Kherson
Artillery duels between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Russian artillery hit residential areas. More information on the outcome tomorrow.

⚡️Bahmut, Soledar, Avdiivka & Mariinka
Russia keeps attempting to attack Bahmut and cut the supply routes to the city, attempting to approach Chasov Jar. Russian advances in the North are extremely difficult due to terrain elevation and Ukrainian defenders occupying higher ground. Russian forces are trying to attack Bahmut from the South, near Opytne. Ukrainian forces shot down Su-25 and two anti-radar missiles.

⚡️Zaporizhzhja
Ukrainian forces keep hitting Russian military targets and logistics, with Russian forces reporting hits in occupied Volnovaha. Russia keeps 28 BTG in the Zaporizhzhja area. This is not enough for the occupation of Zaporizhzhja city, or even Orihiv, but can cause some local problems. Russian forces attempted tactical advances, with an attempted offensive near Vuhledar resulting in 3 Russian Ka-52 in a few hours. Russian sources report very limited advances that were followed by a Ukrainian counteroffensive shortly.

⚡️Kreminna & Svatove
Ukrainian forces stopped an attempted Russian attack in Lyman’s direction. Russian sources report AFU approaching Kreminna.

⚡️Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities
Russia keeps shelling the residential areas of Kherson, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernigiv, resulting in civilian deaths.

⚡️Tanks for Ukraine & Melitopol declaration
At the end of 2022, the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Zaluzhnyy, stated that he needed additional tanks (300), APC (500) and artillery to liberate Melitpol and destroy Russian logistics and defence in the South of Ukraine.
After months of resistance from Germany and countless discussions & speculations about Leopard 2 transfer to Ukraine, Germany agreed to send (around 14 units) and allow other allies to transfer their tanks to Ukraine. This is following the earlier transfer of Polish (more than 300 units), Slovak and Moroccan T72 tanks, and the UK’s willingness to supply Challenger tanks. Bloomberg also mentioned the insider information from Biden’s administration on the US supplying Abrams to Ukraine as well.
At this point, the only type of weapons that are not yet being supplied to Ukraine are long-range missiles and Western warplanes, but it may come sooner than some people predict.
The transfer of modern, Western tanks to Ukraine is showing the resolve of the collective West to supply heavy armament to Ukraine to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces to liberate Ukrainian territories from Russian invaders and end the war in 2023.

⚡️Ukrainian counteroffensive
While Ukraine fought even with very little or almost no Western aid and managed to liberate part of its territories, Western military aid is 70% of the rapid success of the next counteroffensive. The Western industrial-military complex revival took some time, but the fast supply of heavy weapons is key to ending the war swiftly. Waiting any longer may give the Russians additional time to mobilize and train more soldiers, which will require more time to be dealt with. Thus, Ukraine must get all the necessary equipment to give Russian invaders as few chances as possible.

⚡️Feudal society in Russia
Russian society is facing further stratification, with the elite getting more rights and less accountability while common Russians getting poorer and fewer rights. Thus, Russian MPs are exempt from making IRS declarations while common Russians will need to request permission to travel abroad.

⚡️Turkey blocking Sweden’s ascension to NATO & Russian provocations
After a far-right representative burned Koran in Sweden, Erdogan has again opposed Swedish ascension to NATO. This has a strong resemblance to the provocations organised by the Russian FSB, using far-right movements to alienate Turkey from the EU.
The previous bomb packages and packages with mutilated animal parts sent to Ukrainian and EU institutions in Europe were probably orchestrated by “Russian Imperial Movement”, which is linked to FSB and has close cooperation with the Swedish far-right. The same movement or other FSB proxies may stage further provocations targeting Muslims in the EU, as part of the Russian hybrid war against the West. Erdogan is facing elections in May and will be forced to respond to this kind of provocations until the end of the elections, but will probably not obstruct the NATO summit in June.

⚡️Belarus
Lukashenko claimed that Ukraine proposed a non-aggression pact. While Ukraine would like to avoid aggression from the Belarusian army, Ukraine wouldn’t attack Belarus. Zelensky once more reinforced that Ukraine didn’t and will not attack anyone, but also will not tolerate attempts to attack its territory. Ukraine will give adequate responses to any provocations & attempts to invade from the North.
Ukraine hopes that Belarus will not be coerced by Russia to enter the war and will preserve its independence in the face of the Russian threat.

⚡️️ Russian Gazprom Bank
The US will stop servicing Russian state-owned Gazprombank dollar corresponding accounts. This was the main Russian bank that was operating with dollars and performing essential transactions with gas & buying military equipment. This is another sanctions measure affecting the Russian economy and military purchases. Any illegal transactions with dollars done by the Russian Federations will be easily detectable and earn further sanctions against Russia.

⚡️Saakashvili
Saakashvili has reportedly contracted COVID, which is very dangerous with his current health problems. It’s unknown if he is receiving adequate care and treatment under the custody of the Georgian Government. Feygin & Arestovych are appealing again to the Georgian Government to allow Saakashvili to receive proper medical treatment. More public pressure actions are planned to protest the Georgian Government’s inaction.

Next stream is on Thursday, 26th of January.

Igotjelly · 25/01/2023 14:23

Biden to deliver remarks on the Ukraine war from the White House today at about 5pm UK Time.

MissConductUS · 25/01/2023 15:24

Igotjelly · 25/01/2023 14:23

Biden to deliver remarks on the Ukraine war from the White House today at about 5pm UK Time.

I'll try to watch it live from here.

Here's a good background piece on the Abrams. I think the number of tanks announced today will be the start. It doesn't make sense to send less than a whole battalion.

What Makes the M1 Abrams So Critical to the Russia-Ukraine War? - The powerful tank could be a game-changer on the battlefield but requires extensive logistics support

The M1 Abrams tank is among the most powerful ground weapons in the U.S. arsenal, able to close in on enemy tanks, troop positions and other targets, blast them with its cannon and machine guns, and then speed away.

The tank’s heavy armor protects the vehicle and its four-person crew from small-arms fire, shell fragments and even some direct hits. It can ford waters up to 4 feet deep.

“The fundamental mission of the tank platoon is to close with and destroy the enemy,” reads the first sentence of a 2019 training document for Army and Marine Corps tank commanders.

The Biden administration could announce as soon as Wednesday that it will send dozens of Abrams tanks to Ukraine to help Kyiv’s forces retake territory from the Russians.

Named for Gen. Creighton Abrams, a World War II tank commander, the first Abrams entered service with the U.S. Army in 1980. Intended initially to fight the Soviets in Germany’s strategic Fulda Gap, the Abrams has been updated several times with a larger cannon and improvements to its armor, transmission and drivetrain. Over the years, the Pentagon has purchased more than 7,000 of the tanks in various configurations, according to the Congressional Research Service, a research arm of the Library of Congress.

The Abrams first saw action in the Gulf War, where it won wide praise from commanders, crews and maintenance workers for its killing power and toughness in the face of enemy fire, and speed, according to a 1992 report by the Government Accountability Office.

The tanks helped the U.S. military overpower Iraqi forces during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and in supported raids and other operations in Fallujah and elsewhere. The tanks also served in Afghanistan, where a Marine Corps armored company deployed in 2011 and suffered only a single wounded in action during its tour, despite taking 19 IED strikes, according to an article in the Army journal Military Review.

But throughout its service, soldiers and war planners have been concerned about the tank’s huge fuel consumption and limited range, and the long logistics and maintenance train that follows the Abrams into combat. Those, among other factors, made the Pentagon reluctant to send Ukraine tanks.

A battalion of 58 tanks requires dozens of support vehicles and hundreds of soldiers to keep it running—a formula known in military circles as the tooth-to-tail ratio. Those could include armored ambulances, command vehicles, maintenance trucks, and trucks to tow disabled tanks. The trucks have to haul fuel, ammunition, lubricants, engine oil, hydraulic fluid and extremely heavy spare parts.

“Everything that’s associated with the tank is heavy,” said Dan Grazier, a former Marine Corps tank officer.

Even with all that, a tank battalion can only operate for two or three days in the field without resupply from a logistics battalion, said Mr. Grazier, who is now a researcher at the Project on Government Oversight, a nonpartisan think tank.

“If we gave the Ukrainians tanks and we didn’t give them everything they need to support them logistically, then we would hardly be doing them any favors,” he said. “There’s a whole lot that needs to drag behind a tank to keep it moving.”

MissConductUS · 25/01/2023 17:18

It's going to be 31 Abrams and eight recovery vehicles to start.

twitter.com/jseldin/status/1618293733463842817

I want to know which Abrams variant and where they're coming from. I saw a comment in some news coverage that it would be the export model, which the US Army doesn't keep a stock of. Countries order them directly from the manufacturer. So let's hope that was an error.

Greenshake · 25/01/2023 17:54

Your knowledge is impeccable.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/01/2023 19:01

Malinda 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇵🇱🇨🇦🇮🇹🇦🇺🇬🇧🇯🇵🇩🇪🇸🇪
@TreasChest
·
5m
❗️Switzerland has officially allowed the re-export of Swiss weapons from other countries to Ukraine.

Switzerland also agreed to supply Ukraine with demining equipment.

MissConductUS · 25/01/2023 19:05

Greenshake · 25/01/2023 17:54

Your knowledge is impeccable.

😁