Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37

997 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2023 15:52

Welcome all to thread 37. Thanks to everybody contributing to the backbone of these threads (extra hat tip to Ducks and Desdemona for posting daily updates) and to all lurkers too.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
129
Igotjelly · 23/01/2023 14:38

Interesting about Morocco sending tanks, I hadn’t seen that anywhere else.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/01/2023 14:41

Wash Post Telegram

  • About 180,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war, Norway’s army chief said in an interview with national television channel TV 2. The Washington Post could not independently verify the numbers.

From elsewhere on Telegram

Update from Bakhmut, 23 January: situation remains unchanged, the battle continues, Bakhmut is Ukraine - Kiyanyn.

⚡️Lawmaker Khalimon to be expelled
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lawmaker-khalimon-to-be-expelled-from-zelenskys-party-over-alleged-attempt-to-hide-property-purchase)from Zelensky's party over alleged attempt to hide mansion purchase.

According to an investigation published by Ukrainska Pravda media outlet on Jan. 23, lawmaker Pavlo Khalimon bought a luxury mansion in Kyiv in the summer of 2022, registering it for another person.

MissConductUS · 23/01/2023 15:56

Igor Gurkin, a Russian military blogger who has been critical of how the war has been conducted, says that large-scale Russian offensives are currently impossible due to low morale, poor quality of troops and lack of recon and communications equipment.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1617131387923873792

I agree with him, for whatever that's worth. There's also the lack of officers. Not having sufficient numbers of officers in the staff mix means under Russia's highly centralized command structure, the troops can only carry out very simple operations.

MissConductUS · 23/01/2023 16:19

EdithStourton · 22/01/2023 19:07

A very, very late check-in...

Is anyone else here following the US volunteer in the Ukrainian Army at ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/ ? Very immediate ground-up view.

This is great stuff. Thanks for the link @EdithStourton. I'd love to know more about his prior service in Vietnam, but he sounds like an infantry soldier. The US pulled out of Vietnam in 1975, which means that he's in his mid-60s at best and now serving in combat zones in Ukraine. Very impressive.

EdithStourton · 23/01/2023 17:57

MissConductUS · 23/01/2023 16:19

This is great stuff. Thanks for the link @EdithStourton. I'd love to know more about his prior service in Vietnam, but he sounds like an infantry soldier. The US pulled out of Vietnam in 1975, which means that he's in his mid-60s at best and now serving in combat zones in Ukraine. Very impressive.

The age he must be to have served in Vietnam had made me wonder if he was in fact legit, but I've read a lot of first-hand military accounts and his just ring so true.

It would make a brilliant book once this whole thing is over - his experiences set into the wider context of the war.

Anyway, glad you like it. I much appreciate your contributions to the thread.

Alexandra2001 · 23/01/2023 18:49

@notimagain I would have read back through a few posts again... M1 Fuel, 3000 leopards, spares and training....? and who was correct on this and who wasn't.

On Challengers, no one but a fool closes down the ability to make ammunition for the UK's MBT before its replacement is in the field and CH2's have been retirred.

....as current events prove... things can change... and its the job of Govt/advisors to consider all possibilities, not just what the Treasury wants, after all Putin has been aggressive towards Ukraine and certainly the UK for many years.

MissConductUS · 23/01/2023 19:12

Anyway, glad you like it. I much appreciate your contributions to the thread.

Thank you, I appreciate it. Half the time I think people are muttering to themselves, "blimey, not her again" when I post. 😁

notimagain · 23/01/2023 19:22

Alexandra2001 · 23/01/2023 18:49

@notimagain I would have read back through a few posts again... M1 Fuel, 3000 leopards, spares and training....? and who was correct on this and who wasn't.

On Challengers, no one but a fool closes down the ability to make ammunition for the UK's MBT before its replacement is in the field and CH2's have been retirred.

....as current events prove... things can change... and its the job of Govt/advisors to consider all possibilities, not just what the Treasury wants, after all Putin has been aggressive towards Ukraine and certainly the UK for many years.

Main gripe around this was was you seemed to me at least quite dismissive of the UK efforts last week, and pretty much accused the UK of not trying hard enough.

I really did my best to try and explain the ins and outs of it all ( and bored many rigid I'm sure) but it really did appear to me as if you were not prepared to accept some of the difficulties involved with supplying large numbers of CR2....

Yet the minute somebody on Twitter pops up with a parallel argument with regard to Leopard 2 using their maths/opinion and appeared quite dismissive of the European effort you appeared to accept their logic without hesitation.

FWIW the sheer number of Leopard 2s in Europe means the situation is very different to that of Challenger so IMHO the tanks are available.

BTW as for Twitter and analysts, treat with caution, some of them appears to be less informed than some of the randoms on mumsnet.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/01/2023 22:30

MissConductUS · 23/01/2023 19:12

Anyway, glad you like it. I much appreciate your contributions to the thread.

Thank you, I appreciate it. Half the time I think people are muttering to themselves, "blimey, not her again" when I post. 😁

Hell no, more like 'yay MissConduct'!

L1ttledrummergirl · 24/01/2023 00:05

For what it's worth, I asked my dad about his thoughts on how the challengers could be used- he thought about it for a while, then said he wasn't prepared to speculate as that was a decision for the current experts and planners.

MissConductUS · 24/01/2023 01:23

L1ttledrummergirl · 24/01/2023 00:05

For what it's worth, I asked my dad about his thoughts on how the challengers could be used- he thought about it for a while, then said he wasn't prepared to speculate as that was a decision for the current experts and planners.

Your father is a very smart man and I'm sure he was an excellent soldier.

MagicFox · 24/01/2023 09:00

This episode of China Talk might be of interest:"war for Taiwan: what happens if China wins?" Sensible war gaming that lays out what a lose lose situation it would be without saying it can't happen

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927?i=1000595983493

OP posts:
Fladdermus · 24/01/2023 13:16

So it's looking like Finland get to join NATO alone as Turkey won't let Sweden join because 1 idiot from Denmark set fire to a book. FFS!

Natsku · 24/01/2023 14:29

Fladdermus · 24/01/2023 13:16

So it's looking like Finland get to join NATO alone as Turkey won't let Sweden join because 1 idiot from Denmark set fire to a book. FFS!

Saw that, though Haavisto is now saying Finland does still want to join with Sweden, and only possibly consider the option of joining alone.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 15:58

very busy today, sorry it's so late

Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment that Russian troops may undertake a decisive action in the coming months.

The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability.

Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours.

Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims. The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut.

The Kremlin’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures.

Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems and crack down on partisan dissent in occupied areas.y it's so late

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
MissConductUS · 24/01/2023 16:09

That's a fun article. I'd consider myself to be a design purist and doctrinal moderate. If I can't have a tank, I'll take a Brad in a pinch.

The US Army has an armor training center in Germany with lots of Abrams M1A2s. I think we should start training Ukrianian tank crews there, for no other reason than to give the Germans another nudge.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 16:12

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Poll: Record 86% of Ukrainians support (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/poll-record-86-of-ukrainians-support-joining-nato) joining NATO.

⚡️Reuters: EU approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-approves-542-million-euro-military-aid-package-to-ukraine) 542 million euro military aid package to Ukraine.

Of the 50,000 convicts recruited by mercenary company Wagner Group from the Russian prison system, only 10,000 remain in the ranks of the military, according to Olga Romanova, head of Russia Behind Bars, an NGO that protects the rights of convicts.
The rest have deserted or have been killed or wounded, she said.

kyivindependent.com/national/they-were-not-born-to-take-away-my-land-a-couple-describes-what-occupation-looked-like-in-their-village

⚡️Media: Zelensky's deputy chief of staff Tymoshenko reportedly submits (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-zelenskys-deputy-chief-of-staff-tymoshenko-submits-his-resignation) his resignation. [corruption related]

⚡️Invasion anniversary event to be held (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/invasion-anniversary-event-to-be-held-in-turkey-ukraine-invited) in Turkey, Ukraine invited.

⚡️Zelensky: Security council bans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-security-council-bans-state-official-from-leaving-ukraine-except-for-business-trips) state officials from leaving Ukraine, except for business trips.
The ban on state officials' travel abroad follows a scandal around Oleksiy Symoneko, a deputy prosecutor general who went for a vacation to Spain in December-January using a Mercedes car owned by Lviv-based businessman Grigory Kozlovsky, according to an investigation by online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda

⚡️ Voice of America: Bradley fighting vehicles to arrive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/voa-bradley-fighting-vehicles-to-arrive-in-ukraine-within-few-weeks) in Ukraine within few weeks.

⚡️Foreign minister: Western tanks are coming (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/foreign-minister-western-tanks-are-coming-to-ukraine-soon) to Ukraine soon.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Jan. 23 that Ukraine is in the final stages of convincing allies to provide Western main battle tanks, including German-made Leopard 2s.

⚡️ Anti-Corruption Court seizes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/anti-corruption-court-seizes-assets-of-russian-billionaire) assets of Russian billionaire.
The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine seized the Ukrainian assets of Russian billionaire Mikhail Shelkov.

⚡️ Sweden to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sweden-to-provide-ukraine-with-equipment-to-restore-energy-supply) Ukraine with equipment to restore energy supply.
The Swedish government allowed the state-owned grid operator Svenska Kraftnat to transfer the materials that can be used to restore Ukraine’s power system.

⚡️Governors, government officials lose jobs in biggest reshuffle (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governors-government-officials-lose-jobs-in-biggest-reshuffle-since-start-of-full-scale-war) since start of full-scale war.
The Cabinet of Ministers has officially dismissed six top officials and greenlighted the firing of five governors in the most significant reshuffle since the start of the full-scale war.
The Jan. 24 reshuffle came after a series of journalist investigations alleged misappropriation of funds among several top officials.

⚡️Polish Defense Minister says Germany received (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/polish-defense-minister-says-germany-received-request-to-send-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine) request to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

⚡️Prime Minister: The first financial 'Ramstein' meeting (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/prime-minister-first-meeting-of-financial-ramstein-will-take-place-this-week) will occur this week.
The multi-donor coordination platform, known as financial “Ramstein,” was created by G7 countries to ensure the coordination of financial assistance projects concerning Ukraine.

⚡️Finnish president visits
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/finnish-president-visits-kyiv-meets-zelensky-on-jan-24)Kyiv, meets Zelensky on Jan. 24.

6 aircraft lost! There's a story behind that .. wonder if they hit a landing field.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
Ukraine Invasion: Part 37
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 16:28

The Biden administration has provided the Chinese government with evidence that some Chinese state-owned companies are helping Russia in its military operations in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported with reference to sources.

No other details were provided by the sources, except that this aid is both economic and non-lethal military in nature and allows to circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia.

This trend alarmed the US so much that officials raised the issue with their Chinese counterparts and warned of the consequences of China's material support for Russia's war.

People familiar with the administration's opinion characterize the activities of state-owned enterprises as a deliberate assistance to Russia in military operations. At the same time, they did not specify what kind of evidence the administration has, adding that currently the collected evidence is being studied to determine its significance. The discovery that Chinese companies are supporting the invasion could have troubling implications for US policy toward Russia and China.

Currently, the administration believes that the Chinese government wants to help Russia and is not as neutral as it publicly claims. China, despite US demands to other countries to distance themselves from the Russian economy, on the contrary, deepened trade relations with the aggressor.

MissConductUS · 24/01/2023 16:30

The WSJ is reporting that we may be sending Abrams to Ukraine after all, as part of a deal with the Germans.

U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine - Deliveries would be part of deal to enable provision of German-built Leopards

Updated Jan. 24, 2023 10:36 am ET

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

The White House declined to comment.

The deal would address a rift between the U.S. and the Germans and other Europeans over providing tanks for Ukraine during a pivotal phase of the war. Kyiv is preparing a counteroffensive to try to take back Ukrainian territory and Russia is mobilizing troops for its own operations.

The shift in the U.S. position follows a call on Jan. 17 between President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which Mr. Biden agreed to look into providing the Abrams tanks against the judgment of the Pentagon. A senior German official said that the issue had been the subject of intense negotiation between Washington and Berlin for more than a week and appeared to be on the way to resolution.

Military officials have argued publicly that the Abrams tanks require a substantial amount of training and logistics support and therefore aren’t appropriate for this moment in the conflict.

In a contentious meeting last week at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the U.S. and its allies failed to persuade Germany to allow other nations to send German-made tanks, exposing the first serious rift in the alliance that has supported Kyiv.

Previously, the Pentagon had ruled out providing the tanks to Ukraine, saying they were too complicated for the Ukrainians to maintain and operate. But White House and State Department officials were described as being more open to providing Abrams to break the diplomatic logjam holding up Leopard deliveries.

Some Democratic lawmakers close to the White House, such as Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, have also urged that some Abrams be provided.

The provision of U.S. battle tanks has become a contentious issue within the Biden administration and was calling into question the unity of the alliance of nations supporting Ukraine.

German officials initially said that they wouldn’t be the first to send tanks to Ukraine and wouldn’t do so unless the U.S. provided its own Abrams tanks. Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, told German television last week that German and U.S. tanks don’t need to be provided at the same time and indicated that his government was still weighing what to do.

Poland’s defense minister said Tuesday that Poland had asked Germany for permission to send some of its German-made tanks to Ukraine.

“The Germans have already received our request for consent to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine,” Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said. “I also appeal to the German side to join the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks.”

Publicly, U.S. officials have praised Germany for weapons contributions it has made to Ukraine, including the IRIS-T air defense system and the promise to send a Patriot antimissile battery to supplement the ones pledged by the U.S. and the Netherlands, as well as Marder infantry-fighting vehicles.

Privately, U.S. officials were frustrated by Germany’s refusal to approve the provision of German-made tanks and have debated how to persuade Berlin to change its stance.

Pentagon officials want Leopard tanks for Ukraine, but didn’t want to send the Abrams there now, arguing that the gas-guzzling tanks with their gas turbine engines and fuel requirements make them less-than-desirable for this moment in the nearly yearlong conflict.

Some State Department and White House officials, however, have been open to meeting the German demands on the Abrams to avoid a deepening rift among Ukraine’s backers over aid to Ukraine and to expedite the delivery of more armor.

The British promised earlier this month to send 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, but that wasn’t enough to persuade the Germans to release their hold on the Leopards.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 16:30

UNITED24 Media Telegram

American Sea Sparrow missiles have found a second life after half a century in storage. Ukrainians came up with a way to launch them from the Soviet anti-aircraft systems.

UNITED24 Ambassador Mark Hamill, who is famous as an actor who played Luke Skywalker in "Star Wars", is raising funds for 10 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones, which will give even more power to take back Ukrainian territories.

The United States has not yet made a final decision on the possibility of sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine, – the White House

⚡️The EU will allocate an additional 45 million euros for the training of the Ukrainian military in Poland, – the head of EU diplomacy Borrell

Russian media are reporting a change of commanders of two military districts located near Ukraine
It is reported that the Southern Military District will be headed by Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev and the Western Military District — by Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
Earlier, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that Nikiforov was associated with Prigozhin, the curator of Wagner PMC. [another sign he's out of favour]

The Bayraktar Kizilelma jet fighter with the Ukrainian engine of the Motor Sich company made its first full flight.

Germany began to transfer Patriot air defense systems to Poland. Air defense systems will be installed 60 km from the border with Ukraine and will cover logistics centers.

The United States is concerned about South Africa's decision to participate in joint military exercises with the Russian Federation and China, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.
Naval exercises involving the ships of Russia, China, and South Africa will take place from February 17 to 27.

n total, the German defense concern Rheinmetall can send 139 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, although 22 of them need repair, — association Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland
"We have 22 combat vehicles of the Leopard 2A4 type, which we could prepare for operation and send to Ukraine. The repair of these machines will last almost a year. Delivery is possible in late 2023 — early 2024. There are another 29 combat vehicles of the Leopard 2A4 type, which will be ready for shipment in April-May 2023. We can also provide another 88 Leopard 1 combat vehicles," said a representative of the concern in an interview published by the RND.

The Biden administration has provided the Chinese government with evidence that some Chinese state-owned companies are helping Russia in its military operations in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported with reference to sources.

🏥In Crimea, additional hospitals are established due to heavy losses in the Zaporizhzhia direction

Ukraine offers Belarus to conclude a non-aggression pact, — self-proclaimed President of the Republic of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko
During the government meeting, the Belarusian self-proclaimed President said that militants and extremists are being trained on the territory of Ukraine, who will be used against the Belarusian government.

Ukrainians from Georgia may have to be evacuated due to the influx of Russians into the country, — Acting Ambassador of Ukraine to Georgia Kasyanov

17.6 million Ukrainians need humanitarian assistance, more than a third are now in extremely difficult conditions, — UN report (reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-humanitarian-needs-overview-2023-issued-december-2022-enuk)
Among the above persons: 45% women, 23% children, 15% people with special needs.
27% of needs are catastrophic, 8% of people have an emergency level of needs, 52% have an acute level of needs.

Ukraine handed Russia a list of 748 seriously wounded soldiers for a possible exchange, – Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets

🛫 Yuriy Ignat reported that the United States has decided on the type of aircraft that will be provided to the Ukrainian Air Force

Spain can repair its Leopard tanks for Ukraine in a month, – El Mundo

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 16:38

⚡️ABC News: 12 countries ready to give (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/abc-news-12-countries-ready-to-give-about-100-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine-once-germany-approves) about 100 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine once Germany approves.
The agreements were made at the Ramstein defense summit, according to an unnamed Ukrainian official cited by ABC News.

⚡️Bloomberg: Germany to approve (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-germany-to-approve-polands-request-to-deliver-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine-on-jan-25) Poland's request to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Jan. 25.
"Berlin wants to make a decision on the issue quickly to quell growing frustration among allies," Bloomberg reported citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/01/2023 16:42

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Biden administration leans toward sending significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine - WSJ
This would be part of a broader diplomatic agreement with Germany, under which Berlin would agree to send fewer of its own Leopard 2 tanks and approve the transfer of more German-made tanks between Poland and other countries.

Ukrainian intelligence has compiled a report on the tactics and effectiveness of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner PMC, CNN reports. They have an extremely strict discipline and do not pay attention to losses, which is why they succeed.
The document, drawn up in December 2022, says that Wagner's men pose a serious threat at close range. Assault groups do not retreat without a command. If they retreat, they face execution or painful death. One of the mercenaries had his genitals cut off for a failed attempt to surrender.
Tens of thousands of mercenaries are often used in the first wave of an attack, and they suffer the greatest losses - up to 80%. They are followed by more experienced fighters. If Wagner PMC forces manage to take a position, artillery support allows them to dig trenches and gain a foothold. However, according to intercepts, coordination between Wagner's forces and the Russian military is often lacking.

Heroes about whom few people write. During the war, 127 employees of DTEK were killed, the company’s executive director Dmytro Sakharuk said. 319 workers were injured, 46 went missing, four more were captured. [energy company]

The Norwegian police detained the former commander of the Wagner PMC branch, Andrei Medvedev, who had applied for political asylum. He faces deportation to Russia.

Denmark has handed over 11 tons of water supply and heating equipment to Mykolaiv region, according to a press release from the Danish Energy Agency.

notimagain · 24/01/2023 16:46

American Sea Sparrow missiles have found a second life after half a century in storage. Ukrainians came up with a way to launch them from the Soviet anti-aircraft systems.

For info there's actually been a few attempts at matching up these systems in the last few years, I think the Poles had a go, demonstrated an assembly/rig of some sort at I'm not sure where there project ended up and if they actually got as far as getting anything to "fly"

I'm pretty sure I also read somewhere quite a while back that at some point the Czechs adapted Aspide (which is a Sparrow derivative) to operate off the same Russian launcher.

AIM/RIM-7 Sparrow does go back a bit but has had a significant number of upgrades over the years and a lot of the hardware on offer now will be considerably less than half a century old.

MissConductUS · 24/01/2023 21:20

There's much coverage in the media about the US agreement with Germany on sending tanks to Ukraine, including the German media. I'd expect an official announcement in the next day or two. It will be a logistical nightmare for Ukraine to support three different tanks in the field, but it's better than no tanks at all. One long term benefit will be that Ukraine will have hands on experience with all three and can pick one to focus on long term, possibly with some local manufacturing.

The Swiss have reportedly taken steps to allow the export of ammunition to Ukraine. All in all, it's been a no good, rotten, terrible, very bad day for the Russians. 😁

Swipe left for the next trending thread