ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17
The Kremlin is likely attempting to increase perceptions of Putin’s competence and of that of the Russian Ministry of Defense by publicizing Putin’s meeting with the joint headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces and Putin’s appearances at non-military events.
A New York Times investigation of Russian military documents from early in the war supports ISW’s longstanding assessments about how flawed Russian planning assumptions and campaign design decisions plagued Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from its onset.
Ongoing Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut are further driving a wedge between forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group troops.
The US Central Intelligence Agency assesses that the Kremlin is not serious about negotiations with Ukraine, agreeing with a longstanding ISW assessment.
Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks near Svatove and Kreminna and continue to strike Russian rear areas.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City.
Ukrainian officials warned that Russian forces may be attempting to draw Ukrainian forces into a trap on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
Russia may be conducting an information operation falsely connecting ongoing negotiations on the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to a prospective future Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Several Russian sources denounced a military commissar's claim that Russian authorities will extend the service period for conscript soldiers. An extension of the legal mandatory service period would not be necessary to keep current conscripts in the field, however, as all former conscripts are reservists, and all reservists are already eligible for mobilization
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Kyiv Indep Telegram
⚡️Another Ukrainian top general says Russia might attack (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/another-ukrainian-top-general-says-russia-might-attack-from-north) from north.
Ukraine is preparing for another possible Russian attack from the north, Major General Andrii Kovalchuk, head of Southern Operational Command, told Sky News.
⚡️Intelligence: Iran resupplies Russia with new batch (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-iran-provides-russia-with-new-batch-of-kamikaze-drones) of kamikaze drones.
⚡️Klitschko: Heating completely restored (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/klitschko-heating-completely-restored-in-kyiv) in Kyiv.
Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said (t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/1695) on Dec. 18 that heating in the capital had been completely restored just two days after Russia’s seventh mass missile strike on energy infrastructure deprived many residents of utilities.
⚡️ Ukraine’s intelligence: Over 1.2 million calls made (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-intelligence-over-1-2-million-calls-made-to-surrender-hotline-service) to surrender hotline service.
Over 1.2 million calls have been made to Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” hotline, according to the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate’s representative Andriy Yusov on Dec. 17.The “I Want to Live” hotline allows Russians to surrender themselves or their units to the Ukrainian army. [assuming this is accurate presumably only a very small percentage of Ru soldiers are able or want to surrender]
⚡️ Zelensky: Electricity restored (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-electricity-restored-for-6-million-ukrainians) for 6 million Ukrainians.
⚡️ Cabinet Ministry: Ukraine to open (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cabinet-ministry-ukraine-to-open-around-10-000-new-invincibility-centers) around 10,000 new ‘invincibility centers.'
Ukraine intends to triple the number of “invincibility centers” across the country, the Cabinet Ministry announced on Dec. 17.
The centers offer people the ability to warm up, charge their phones, and connect to the internet amid Russia's ongoing attacks.
⚡️ Scholz: Germany will not
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/scholz-germany-will-not-unilaterally-transfer-tanks-to-ukraine-next-year)unilaterally transfer tanks to Ukraine next year. [what a pathetic leader he is]
⚡️CIA Director: China has been paying 'careful attention' to Russia's poor military performance in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cia-director-china-has-been-paying-careful-attention-to-russias-poor-military-performance-in-ukraine).
CIA Director Bill Burns said in an interview with PBS that no other foreign leader "has paid more careful attention to that war and Russia's poor military performance than Xi Jinping has," as he thinks about his own ambitions in Taiwan and elsewhere.
⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-russian-attacks-near-15-settlements-in-donetsk-luhansk-oblasts) Russian attacks near 15 settlements in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts.
⚡️Russian Defense Minister Shoigu makes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-defense-minister-shoigu-makes-claimed-visit-to-troops-in-occupied-ukraine) claimed "visit" to troops in occupied Ukraine.
UNITED24 Media
Lithuania has the right not to apply the exceptions provided for by the ninth package of EU sanctions against the Russian Federation, and will take advantage of them, said Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.
The UK Department of Defense has announced that as part of its aid package, the UK has provided Brimstone 2 precision-guided missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Invaders withdraw part of troops from the temporarily occupied Kherson region — General Staff
So, part of their units is being redeployed to the area of
the settlement Nyzhni Sirogozy. They spread information about the movement among local residents: they say that Russian troops will leave Kakhovka before the end of the year.
Loyal occupiers are offered to move to the temporarily occupied Crimea.
Germany will help restore 8 high-voltage substations in the west and south of Ukraine
Hungary, Romania, Georgia, and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on electricity supplies
They are talking about laying an underwater electric cable along the bottom of the Black Sea. It will transport electricity from Azerbaijan and Georgia to Romania and Hungary to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
Legendary actor and UNITED24 Ambassador Mark Hamill has begun collecting 10 powerful RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones for the Armed Forces.
Russians carry out reconnaissance before each massive strike on Ukraine, - Yuriy Ignat
Putin is ready to lose up to 300,000 Russian soldiers in the war against Ukraine, says one of the NATO countries on the condition of anonymity
Russia accused Moldova of "oppressing Russian national minorities" due to the closure of propaganda TV channels
Estonia sends a mobile sauna and laundry for the Ukrainian military, — ERR
This complex will be able to serve about 400 people during the week.
In the Kherson region, the Russians robbed and almost destroyed a winery founded 126 years ago — the Center of National Resistance
. They also damaged the laboratory and mined the vineyards.
The UN put pressure on the EU as they worked on a ninth round of sanctions against Russia to boost Russian food and fertilizer exports, The Wall Street Journal writes.
Live: Ukraine Telegram
The New York Times showed a detailed plan of the Russians' movement to Kyiv, provided by the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine. The document shows that the first column of Russian OMON and SOBR units were heading to Kyiv.
According to a Russian serviceman stationed in Belarus, on February 23, he learned that he was going to war - an hour before his unit started marching. The order was both simple and extremely optimistic: follow the vehicle ahead and reach Kyiv within 18 hours.
According to the timetable and the unit's logbook obtained by the publication, the first vehicles in his convoy were to leave Belarus and arrive on the outskirts of Kyiv by 14:55, even sooner than the soldier had been told.
These documents were reviewed by three independent military analysts and found to be authentic.
From a Russian publication: the title states “Mobilization treats drug addiction and defeats banditry. These and seven other positive reasons to go to the SVO zone.”
▪️Putin refused to meet with Zelensky and called him a 'Nazi collaborator' over sanctions against Medvedchuk and shutting down pro-Russian TV channels - NYT
▪️In the spring, the Ukrainian military managed to locate the occupiers in northern Ukraine and destroy them thanks to the mobile phones they used to call home - NYT
The Armed Forces expect more active involvement of the Belarusian military in the war against Ukraine after Putin's visit to Minsk next week.
High personnel losses but low equipment losses - but 61 Cruise missiles shot down!!!