Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

The Polish PM is calling an emergency meeting.

Shit, Russia has killed civilians in Poland?!

Looks like it.

So far, I can only see this being reported by Polish local news and on twitter and its only just getting translated into English.

Not seeing the major news agencies reporting it yet, but think this is likely true.

Have seen question about whether it could be a Ukrainian missile but this is highly unlikely given the direction of the missile.

Russian perspectives: why the Russians are facing setbacks according to Dmitry Steshin.

From an interview with Military correspondent of Komsomolskaya Pravda Dmitry Steshin, returning from a posting to the special operation zone.

Interviewer:

"But how can we rationally explain that not everything is working out for us?"

Steshin:

The simplest explanation is that we are conducting a military operation against a state that is locked in for all-out war, to the last Ukrainian.

There is also a deeper explanation. Remember how the public demanded (and I demanded, and the famous columnist of Komsomolskaya Pravda, Colonel Baranets demanded) that the military live with dignity, that they have a social package, a military mortgage, and seniority. As a result, people joined the army…

Interviewer:

...for military mortgages and superannuation.

Steshin:

Yes. And, as in the joke about firefighters, everything was fine, but then there was a fire.

Suddenly it turned out that for this military mortgage you should actually be ready to shed blood. And that the task of the military is to protect the Motherland, and not to receive benefits and retire at the age of 38.

For some, it was a terrible disappointment.

I hope it isn't brushed under the carpet.

wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/rakiety-spadly-na-polske-sa-ofiary-smiertelne
Rockets fell on Poland. There are fatalities

Two stray rockets fell on Tuesday in Przewodów in the province. Lublin. Two people died - Radio ZET found out unofficially.

Two stray rockets fell in the village of Przewodów in the Lublin province near the border with Ukraine - Radio ZET has learned unofficially. They hit grain dryers. Two people died. The police, prosecutor's office and the army are in place.

It is also unofficially known that military planes were picked up from the airport near Tomaszów Lubelski.

Rockets have fallen on Poland, there are victims

The fire brigade previously confirmed that there were explosions in the village of Przewodów. - The causes of this incident are not known at the moment - said in an interview with Radio Lublin the spokesman of the County Headquarters of the State Fire Service in Hrubieszów, senior captain Marcin Lebiedowicz. - We have received a notification of an explosion at the drying yard. In fact, upon arrival, we confirm that something like this happened. Two people died on the spot. At the moment, we are securing the scene and lighting the area of the action - he added.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki urgently convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs .
The tasks of the Committee include ensuring the coordination of preparations, activities and efficient decision-making in matters of state security and defense, and recommending proposals to the government or the prime minister in this respect.

Poland is in NATO, so that's it then gulp

I don’t think this will trigger a NATO response as it is highly unlikely to have been an intentional attack.

Poland would have to decide to invoke Article 5.

It is still fairly unlikely that they will tbh.

But given the G20 is currently ongoing, the timing isn't exactly ideal for Russia...

It is serious but will likely be brushed under the carpet as an accident.even NATO won't start WW3 over a misplaced missile. To be honest I'm very surprised something like this hasn't happened sooner.

Depends on what happens or what is said next....

If this is as reported I bet some phone lines are already red hot.

Kancelaria Premiera AT PremierRP (Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland)
Government spokesman: Due to the crisis situation, the Prime Minister in consultation with the President and the Defence Secretary ordered a meeting in National Security Bureau of the Republic of Poland with members of the Committee for National Security and Defense Affairs.

I think thats pretty official that there HAS been an incident.

Twitter is on fire about it. Here's one thread.

twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592583150081036288

I hope Lavrov gets pulled up about it in Bali.

Artis Pabriks AT Pabriks (deputy Lativian PM)
My condolences to our Polish brothers in arms. Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland. Latvia fully stands with Polish friends and condemns this crime.

Agreed, even if (and it's still an if) this is a Russian missile or missiles gone astray this isn't a "tripwire" issue.

As RTB correctly says it's down to Poland considering invoking article 5, and that means action as deemed necessary, which "may" include the the use of armed force, not "must".

Personally I'd need to see a bit more than some comments and images on SM feeds before starting to lose sleep.

There are reports Lavrov left Bali shortly before today's wave of strikes started.

I'm sure that was coincidental...🤐

At 1530 he was still there

I hope Lavrov gets pulled up about it in Bali.

Some talk on Twitter that Lavrov and his team may already have left the G20 summit.
Probably not much fun being the most despised person in the room 🤷‍♀️ particularly when you're wittering on about Ukraine not being open to negotiations whilst your armed forces are pounding civilian targets with a hundred missiles.
You've got to hand it to him it takes balls to be that deliberately obtuse.
Horrible toad of a man.

I do think it was inevitable there would be spillover eventually. I’d be very surprised if a response hasn’t been decided already and behind the scenes diplomacy will be intense.

I also suspect Russia’s currently very weak position will inform the response to a degree too, escalation like really won’t be necessary, Ukraine are kicking their asses already.

There's a major power substation in Ukraine just across the border (amber dot my arrow is pointing to). The Polish locations I have seen mentioned are to the west or south west of it. Straying from hitting that sort of target is plausible. More incompetence.

May not be but if it doesn't elicit some sort of military response, then Russia will know it can fire missiles at a Nato country again and claim "non intentional"

At what point does it become intentional? Two Polish citizens have been killed by Russian forces.

UN publishing a report into Russian and Ukrainian torture and mistreatment of prisoners... Pure Gold for Putin... wtf are the UN doing? do they work for the FSB ?

Uh oh, and everybody is together at the G20 too, agree it's an 'oh shit' moment but maybe not absolutely massive...

Someone on twitter is claiming that US intelligence has confirmed that it was Russian missiles. It's possible that it was an air defense missile that went astray.

twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1592588887943450625

100% agree. Where is the line? it wasn't with Chechnya. It wasn't with the deliberate murder of Litvininko. It wasn't with Salisbury. It wasn't with Syria. It hasn't been with Ukraine. Now deaths in Poland.

I think action - even if it's war - needs to be taken. Otherwise Russia will take it as a green flag to allow more 'accidents'.