Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Its likely that this exact scenario have been discussed amongst NATO before, but it still will fall on Poland to respond. From a domestic POV they will need to be seen to be 'doing something'.

There will be many Poles feeling somewhat concerned by this.

Fair enough, FWIW certainly one of the Russian Special Flight Squadron IL-86 aircraft left Bali, northbound early afternoon UK time heading back in the direction of the Rodina...(it's currently over China)

How that ties in with the time of the first missile strikes on Ukraine and more importantly whether Lavrov was on it or not - I don't know.

osinteast | AT osinteast
After observing the information space re: #Kinburn and #Oleshky
it can be determined that no substantive proof of AFU operations releasing the settlement/extended area exists.

Timeline covers events from 11/12 - 11/15. Sources included & timestamped.
twitter.com/osint_east/status/1591540527974916096

What may be deduced: likelihood of area reconnaissance, but limits to any other claims.

This can be surmised from the 'grey zone' that now extends along the E. bank of the Dnieper.

Ref. map by AT wolski_jaros

Piss poor and weak if the response is down to NATO, no wonder we are where we are.

We need to be looking to open up the Black Sea now, whether Turkey likes it or not, the USA has huge influence over Turkey.

Sweden and Finland NATO membership speeded up.

Russia needs to know there are consequences or it will escalate.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar I absolutely disagree that we need war over this. The last 9 months have been all about avoiding that exact outcome.

I'm having a complete panic attack right now over this. Genuinely feel like I might vomit.

The Polish government spokesperson requested that responsible reporting from the media. The Polish government will hold a press conference after the meeting. This is according to Hungarian news.

Also the Druzhba pipeline stopped. A transformer station was hit and the pumps don't work. In English www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-transneft-notified-by-ukraine-oil-supply-suspension-hungary-via-druzhba-2022-11-15/

The last nine months have been about avoiding nuclear war.

That's still an issue but letting Russia get away with more deaths is asking for more deaths in the future. Yet another boundary has been crossed, and unless contained Russia will do it again.

I still think this is more nuanced. It’s not about letting Russia “get away with it”, as I would imagine Putin is probably having a serious “oh fuck” moment right now.

I think time needs to be taken for Poland to discuss this among their leaders and with Jens Stoltenberg and the USA.

Discussion and planning needs to be done. Nothing in haste. Then NATO go in, in my view.

twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1592595298484125697

Oliver Alexander AT OAlexanderDK
Have not yet been able to make a conclusive ID of the debris found at the site in Poland.

At this time though, I would not rule out a Ukrainian S-300 malfunctioning. This piece of debris does look similar to end of the rocket engine.

Additional S-300 debris that looks similar to the debris found in Poland.

There is also the possibility of Russia again using S-300s against ground targets, which they have done previously.

The thread is interesting. It says that S-300s have very identifible fragments so they will know quickly. If it is a S-300 the range they have raises questions about whether Russia has the range to hit that particular area.

The Intel Crab AT IntelCrab
Physically, yes. But the crater we keep seeing seems far to large for an S-300. We shall wait and see.

The Polish national security meeting has been called for 8pm GMT.

Unless this can be shown to be deliberate its unlikely to cause more than strong words and a general hardening of present attitudes in the West

Any missile has fairly identifiable fragments, but as that twitter post suggests some are easier to identify quickly than others.

...and yes, if it is an S-300 you absolutely have to consider the remote possibility it could be a Ukraine S-300 gone rogue..

All sorts of possibilities out there.

Most of all it does have to be ascertained that it -was- a Russian missile! If not, then all the adrenaline is for, well, nothing.

Though I'm sorry for the families of the two Poles killed :/

Thank you for this. Are people still going to be demanding that NATO steps in if it turns out (unlikely as it is) that these are Ukranian missiles that have gone astray? People need to take this slowly and wait for all of the facts and circs to be established. As Hancox has pointed out, this was sadly inevitable.

Ruslan Trad AT ruslantrad
It should be noted by outside observers that the region around Ukraine is experiencing increasing incidents due to Russian forces and military actions.
Bulgaria often finds sea mines, and a few days ago it found the body of a Ukrainian pilot in the coastal area.

NOËL AT NOELreports
The Pentagon cannot yet confirm or deny the information "about the fall of Russian missiles in Poland." “I don't want to speculate when it comes to our security commitments and Article 5. But we have made it crystal clear that we will protect every inch of NATO territory”.

Samuel Ramani AT SamRamani2
Russian Telegram channel Rybar will not rule out that a Russian missile landed in Poland

It admits that it could be a Kalibr or Kh-101 and predicts that Poland could theoretically invoke Article 5 but will likely choose a less extreme course of action

Rybar claims that if the missile is Ukrainian, it will be hushed like when a Romanian MiG-21 shot down a Ukrainian S-300 in March

I’m thinking it more likely Poland would go in alone with NATO support, if indeed the response from Article IV means kinetic response.

You really think this?

Its just another example of Putin pushing the West and seeing how far he can go.

Its fairly obv that the facts have to be ascertained before action taken BUT i suspect this will be zero and Putin will know he can escalate because that is all he has done since he came to power.

IF these are Russian and IF NATO do nothing, the next missiles will be on weapons convoys in Poland, at the border.

Don't be so bloody ridiculous.

It was only a matter of time before something like this happened. Whether by accident or on purpose. Anyone remember the Dutch Boeing that was shot down in Donetsk by putins thugs? Russia still hasn’t been made properly accountable for that as far as I know.

That is up to Poland. As I say, they can go it alone if NATO decides against anything more direct. And make no mistake, Poland has beef with Russia. This is a casus belli they’ve been hoping for in many circles there.

@Alexandra2001 yes I do really think that. I will be very surprised if this was intentional, given all that has gone on to date.

Interesting.