Day 271, November 21, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 22 November 2022
🔥Battlefield overview
🔥Kherson
Russia started shelling the recently liberated right (West) bank of the Dnipro River, including Kherson city. At least one person was killed and several wounded. Regardless of the Russian statements of Kherson being “a Russian city” they will continue to use artillery to shell the civilians & critical infrastructure in Kherson, Nikopol, and Zaporizhzhia just like they did with Mykolaiv.
🔥Melitopol
Russian sources mention a counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops in the Melitopol direction. Yet, these are just some tactical maneuvers and responses to the Russian attempt to attack Huliaypole.
🔥Palvovka & Vuhledar
Clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces continue. No major changes.
🔥Bahmut & Mariinka
Fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continues. No major changes.
(Feygin shared the photo from Bahmut on his Telegram channel).
🔥Svatove & Kreminna
Russian sources report the loss of several settlements to the Ukrainian troops. The Ukrainian Staff General is still to confirm this information.
🔥Sumy, Chernigiv, Kharkiv
Russia shells Ukrainian territory of Sumy, Chernigiv and the north of Kharkiv region from Russian territory.
🔥Winter evacuation from Kherson
Ukrainian officials urge the inhabitants of Kherson to evacuate for the Winter months to the central regions of Ukraine. The recommendation is due to the shelling of the Kherson region by Russia which puts the civilians in danger.
Moreover, when Russia was fleeing the right bank of Dnipro River, they destroyed all key civilian energy and heating infrastructure.
Many buildings were mined, the demining efforts are still underway, and, in some cases, mine clearance is not possible & some mines/bombs will need to be detonated on site.
🔥Belarus & ISW
Institute of Study of War (ISW) suggests that Belarus may join the war. While Russia is training their mobilized in Belarus to send them then to Donetsk, Lugansk regions. The Belarusian Army refused to join the war in February when everyone believed in a swift occupation of Kyiv. So, it’s hard to believe that they will finally join now when it’s already clear that Russia has lost the war that it started.
After the liberation of Kherson by Ukrainian forces, Putin has a big domestic problem – no one believes that he can achieve military success in this war. With a frontline of more than 1000km, Russia is attempting to portray its conquest of a building in Pesky (a small village) as a major military success.
Thus, to show force to the domestic audience, Russia is indeed considering a second attempt to invade Sumy or to try and cut Ukrainian supply lines in Volyn region. Even if they move forward with this plan, it will take them some time to prepare the invasion force.
🔥Russian mobilization
Russia claims to have mobilized 300k men, yet the real number is probably 243k. While Russia would like to declare full mobilization, they lack equipment, weapons and even food for all the mobilized. (Russia also lacks competent officers to command the mobilized). The first mobiks were already seen at the frontline with Iranian bulletproof vests, helmets & clothes, as Russia doesn’t have enough equipment of their own.
🔥Israel
Israel has stated that they cannot allow the escalation, such as Iran supplying Russia with ballistic missiles – “Iran must be stopped before this happens”. This doesn’t mean that Israel will supply Ukraine with high-precision missiles but is an improvement from the previous neutral statements from Israel.
🔥Iran
Iran is under diplomatic pressure but will continue to collaborate with Russia. Iran will probably establish a drone production facility on Russian territory and may still transfer the ballistic missiles to Russia. Yet the technical characteristics of these missiles are still a big unknown.
🔥Peskov & war crimes
Peskov claims that Russia will investigate the alleged crimes against Russian soldiers to find the “culprits”. We are still to see Russia conduct a single investigation or prosecute the proven Russian war criminals responsible for the shooting of civilians, Ukrainian POWs, castration of a Ukrainian POW, and many other crimes.
🔥Turkey, Kurds, the US & Russia
Turkey is preparing a land operation against Kurds in Syria & Iraq citing Russia not withholding their military & diplomatic duties in the region. This shows Putin losing influence in the Middle East, with Erdogan negotiating with the US rather than considering Putin´s opinion.
🔥Russia begging for negotiations & the West
Peskov declared that the Russian Federation will try and achieve its objectives but now cites diplomatic means. So, Russia has changed its rhetoric from February – the “nazis & drug addicts” in Kyiv transformed into “dear partners” and the military take-over of Ukraine became “diplomatic negotiations”. Did something happen to the Russian military “might”?
The West continues the military aid to Ukraine, as shown by the recent NATO declaration, and Ukrainian conditions of negotiations remain the same – foremost, the removal of all Russian troops from all Ukrainian territories.
🔥The West is preparing for the post-Putin world
Several resolutions and national & EU parliaments declared Russia a terrorist state & state sponsor of terrorism, and now the calls for a tribunal for the Russian war criminals are all preparations for the post-Putin world. In the new security construct for the West, Russia will be ostracized, sanctioned, and pressured to give up its nuclear arsenal.
The de-militarization & de-nuclearization of Russia may be preferable for the new, post-Putin, Russian government to avoid internal conflicts and civil war.
🔥Putin & astrology
The Kremlin, including Putin, increase their interest & reliance on astrology and shamanism. This demonstrates an increase in desperation & anxiety of the Kremlin, just like it was with Hitler in his last months in the bunker.
Arestovych is very pleased with the almost sabotage-like incompetence of the self-proclaimed Kremlin´s astrologists.