Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Really happy with the result.

Funny how can lose and win at the same time.

A much needed boost for Ukraine and I hope they take strength from the public support.

test

How bizarre! My post, like everyone else's is bold on this thread - but not anywhere else!!

I shall report this post to MNHQ.

Looks OK here. Maybe it’s now been changed.

i did see a snippet yesterday of Putin or someone else talking about his satan missile and the uk?! 🤦🏻‍♀️ No one here has mentioned much? Don’t want to go looking for it to read because I’m trying to limit what I see, but you guys seems to decode it best so calm my anxiety.

Oh ffs just lost a full roundup before it posted. In haste:

ISW:

Key Takeaways

Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.

Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.

Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.

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www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
Ukraine - 1045, of which: destroyed: 488, damaged: 24, abandoned: 35, captured: 498

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Euromaidan: Attacks on Lviv, probably Cruise missiles from submarines. Aimed at military infrastructure.

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ukrinform.net/rubric-ato

Black Sea Fleet Command withdraws most of ships to bases in Crimea.
Only two of them are on patrol on the high seas, not diminishing the threat of missile strikes on the regions of Ukraine.

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⚡️Russian military allegedly use phosphorous bombs against Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal plant. May 14th, Russia used incendiary or phosphorus bombs against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol.
The Russian military claim that these are 9M22S incendiary shells with thermite layers

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In Donetsk direction, the group of enemy forces concentrates its main efforts on preparing for offensive operations in the direction of Severodonetsk, Soledar and Bakhmut, carries out resupply and regrouping its units. Up to two battalion tactical groups were relocated. (they seem to be successful here)

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in haste, ill try to do more later

🔺According to British intelligence, the Russian combat operation in Donbass has fallen behind the schedule and slowed down.

Russia has failed to achieve significant results in the occupation of the territories. At the same time, the Russian army is already very exhausted, there is a low morale and reduced combat effectiveness.

Russia has already lost one third of its forces, which were concentrated around Ukraine as of February 24.

It got mentioned here yesterday because a certain popular UK tabloid decided to plaster it on the front page....for the second ? third? time.

Usual breathless semi-factual claims about what could happen to the UK in theory, published by the paper again doubtless to garner clicks and also possibly (and here I'm in danger of going down rabbit hole) weaken UK public support for Ukraine.

I wouldn't give "satin" missile stories published in the UK MSM anymore headroom than perhaps you have already, and I certainly wouldn't go looking for yesterday's story.

Ok @Scoobydoooo99 I actually did just find the article from yesterday and gave it a read, feeling brave today. It only states what's been stated before 'missile could reach UK within 300 seconds' yes ok, we've been told this before. It actually seems to threaten US more than UK, looks like he was just using UK as an example. It wasn't 'threatening' to nuke UK as revenge like the headline states. Just a Russian politician crying about Finland/ Sweden NATO join. Apparently it was a statement made on Russian state tv but that's all it is, he isn't ordering a push of the red button - wouldn't worry.

It was Aleksey Zhuravlyov, who I think is deputy chairman of the Russian parliament's defence committee. It was part of a load of rambling wider rhetoric about turning the US to ashes because they thought Russia shouldn't exist etc. They were throwing their teddies out the pram on a grand scale about Finland joining NATO. The UK thing was because they were asked whether they'd base nuclear weapons on the border with Finland and they said "no, why bother, our new Sarmat missile can hit the UK in 200 seconds so we don't need to, we can hit anywhere, blah blah." Just getting their cocks out again, basically.

They're relying an awful lot on something that hasn't even come into active service yet.

Expect a lot of this. Mentioning Sarmat over and over is part of all the threatening propaganda

I think it's the obsession some in the media have with this 200 seconds figure (which may or may not be accurate) that makes me roll my eyes TBH...

Without wishing to introduce anxiety warning times in the event of this sort of thing have always varied and potentially could be short. Is the difference between, say 300 seconds and 200 seconds worth members of general public worrying about or change anything they would do?

It all reminds me of the Bridge of Spies film and Mark Rylances (playing Rudolf Abel) response to questions such as "aren't you worried" - his stock answer was along the lines of "no, would it make any difference if I was"?

Some things really aren't worth the head space.

@Ijsbear

Thank you very much for your takeaways today.

Zelensky has vowed to one day to host Eurovision in a free, peaceful and rebuilt Mariupol.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61442439

Don't worry, they don't even test this until the autumn and putrid will be dead by then so......😃👍🏻

Pleasure Scrolling, at least when the damn post doesnt get lost :D

Ukrainian reporters on Twitter are suggesting that a missile strike on western ukraine (Lviv) is related to a a western Ukrainian group winning Eurovision. Pathetic

I hope so!! So many different rumours, there was also an article yesterday on another post saying intel suggest that people close to Putin know he is gravely Ill and wouldn’t even consider following orders to push the button, but then do you believe all you read 🤣, I have read one article that says blood cancer, one that said thyroid, schizophrenia, Parkinson’s. I don’t know what to believe I just bloody hope he dies and someone takes over from him pretends he all down for this war and then comes to power and says fuck your Putin is was all a ruse 🤣🤣

It made its first test flight in April, which they said was successful.

It's meant to come into service in October, I believe, but it's been beset by delays throughout its development. I'm still not especially worried, a lot can change in 5 months, and if they're making threats using something that's still almost half a year out (assuming no setbacks) from being deployed then it doesn't exactly bolster their credibility.

don’t know what to believe I just bloody hope he dies and someone takes over from him pretends he all down for this war and then comes to power and says fuck your Putin is was all a ruse 🤣🤣

totally with you! :)

It made its first test flight in April, which they said was successful.

They say in Belfast of the Titanic: "She was fine when she left here."

Reality is that there'll be no warning. Whether it's 200 minutes or 300, most of that time will be lost to the detection people running round like headless chickens, as they try to verify if it's real, remember to their protocols, all while trying not to shit themselves.

^The Kyiv Independent, [15/05/2022 11:45]
⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely lost one third of its ground forces in Ukraine.

Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and is unlikely to accelerate its pace in the next 30 days, the ministry said. Despite minor advances at the beginning, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining big losses, falling significantly behind schedule, according to the ministry. In addition to the continued low morale and reduced combat effectiveness, problems will continue to grow amid the loss of critical enablers such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones, the ministry said.^

This seems a gigantic proportion of their ground forces. They are making advances in one area around Sievierodonetsk so they must be concentrating the majority of the forces there?

With that level of losses - I imagine the UK Defense Ministry is pretty accurate - do the military folk think there really is a chance that Russia could be driven out?

I think they should host it from the proper original (pre2014) Russian border personally, but that nay be a step too far.

Well, quite. Which was why I added the caveat "they say"! 🙃