Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

If I'm honest I suspect if it wasn't this, it'd be something else, for me.

I have slept better in the last week, but I've got a lot going on personally and I'm utterly exhausted.

I haven't felt the need to check the news at 4am for a fortnight as the pace of things has changed which has helped. I don't expect a shift in that for at least a while either.

I always loved this saying!

Thank you to everyone who posts on these threads. I read it every day and am constantly blown away by the intelligent, knowledgable women who post here.
I don't post on here because I don't have anything useful to add but I genuinely appreciate those that do.

Thanks @MagicFox for the new thread!

@ScrollingLeaves ^is it realistic to suggest it could be Russian false flag operations to justify attacking Ukraine given the Russians have
been freely attacking for so long anyway?^

I think it's very feasible. They have a long history of false flag ops, going back to (if the BBC series was right) bombing residential apartment blocks in Moscow and blaming it on the Chechens to give them the shadow of an excuse to invade Chechnya. There are false-flag ops going on in Transnistra, probably with the view of causing a minor war so the Russians can take over and move West from Kherson through Odesa to Moldovia.

That was really helpful, thank you @WorriedMumofTeen16!

The total combat losses of russian enemy in #Ukraine from 24.02 to 12.05 were approximately:
personnel - about 26650 (+300) liquidated

tanks ‒ 1195 (+8)
APV ‒ 2873 (+17)
artillery systems – 534 (+6)
MLRS - 191 (+6)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 87 (+0)
aircraft – 199 (+0)
helicopters – 161 (+1)
UAV operational-tactical level - 398 (+8)
cruise missiles - 94 (+0)
warships / boats - 13 (+1)
vehicles and fuel tanks - 2019 (+22)
special equipment - 41 (+0)
General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

¬¬¬

From UkraineNOW:

The White House has developed internal intelligence-sharing guidelines with Kyiv aimed at keeping tensions between Washington and Moscow from rising.

This document, in particular, prohibits representatives of American intelligence from transmitting to the Ukrainian side detailed information about the whereabouts of top Russian military leaders and ministers, as well as data for delivering strikes on targets outside the territory of Ukraine.

At the same time, this restriction does not apply to Russian officers, including generals, although it was also decided not to give such information behind the scenes.

(I think this is worth noting. The US is still trying to be careful not to provoke Russia too far).

¬¬¬

⚡️British Intelligence report:

Ukrainian forces are continuing to counter-attack to the north of Kharkiv, recapturing several towns and villages towards the Russian border.

Russia’s prioritisation of operations in the Donbas has left elements deployed in the Kharkiv region vulnerable to the mobile, and highly motivated, Ukrainian counter-attacking force.

Despite Russia’s success in encircling Kharkiv in the initial stages of the conflict, it has reportedly withdrawn units from the region to reorganise and replenish its forces following heavy losses.

Once reconstituted, these forces will likely deploy to the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, forming a blocking force to protect the western flank of Russia’s main force concentration and main supply routes for operations in the vicinity of Izium.

The withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kharkiv region is a tacit recognition of Russia’s inability to capture key Ukrainian cities where they expected limited resistance from the population.

Yay, no cross-outs. For me at least!

Coming up to 27,000 Russian soldiers killed.

When you factor in the wounded, even taking into account RTB's point that the death rate among the wounded might be quite high due to the poor medical first aid, plus any POWs ..... that must be what, 40k? 45K? 50k? out of combat. From an initial invasion force of 200,000 that's a lot! They have been getting more troops from Chechnya, Wagner and press-ganged Eastern Ukrainians but even so it seems like there's a lot of attrition going on.

Yes. And if it was British troops filmed shooting civilians in the back there would be a mix of emotions. Disbelief. Realisation. Shock. Disappointment. Anger. Recoil. Failure. Embarrassment. Horror. Loss.

There would also be a minister or two or even the PM appearing on screen and at least sharing some of those emotions and an acknowledgment the pictures were at least disturbing. We will get nothing from Putin, Lavrov et al, and if anything comes out of the Kremlin machine it will be an allegation of 'Fake'.

t.me/ukrainenowenglish/7869

If this link works it's terrible to see the damage in Irpin. What Mariupol must look like ...

On a very interesting Chatham House seminar on Global Britain and the Implications of the Geo-Political Shift. Currently talking about how the response to Russia means that the UK can no longer separate its relations with the EU and NATO, the two are now intrinsically linked.

Second point - this crisis will spill over to the UK's relationship with China. More because China and Russia are linked in people's minds, even if they don't consider themselves to be linked.

Only 39 countries have so far imposed sanctions on Russia. View is that this is significant in how few it is. Many countries, including large democracies such as India, are deeply concerned about the discrepancies between the way we view Ukraine and the way we view other conflicts (such as Afghanistan and Syria). We may wish to say it isn't the case but it is something that is of significant importance to other influential nations.

Issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol are deeply linked - now is not the time to pick a fight with the EU. We will lose key sources of allies.

He signed off by saying 100% we are in Cold War 2.

Currently talking about how the response to Russia means that the UK can no longer separate its relations with the EU and NATO, the two are now intrinsically linked.

next you know, we'll be applying to join the EU.

About the Steelworks, the Russians are still attacking but counterattacks are still taking place. I did see a reference to supplies being dropped near the steelworks yesterday and another reference to the Russians bombing one of the field hospitals inside putting it out of action and causing casualties but both reports were very much unconfirmed. But this bit says that all the civilians are out:

Civilians have left the Azovstal plant, which continues to be bombed by the Russian occupiers.

As Censor.NET reports with reference to CNN , this was announced by Deputy Commander of the Azov Regiment Svyatoslav "Kalina" Palamar.

"If you talk about the Azovstal plant itself, the civilian population we knew about, the civilian population we were with, the civilian population we cared for, are not with us. They managed to leave the plant," he said. .

At the same time, Kalyna noted that a ceasefire is needed so that an international organization can enter the metallurgical plant and properly assess the situation. Джерело: censor.net/ua/n3340756

Mind you with the Steelworks being so huge it's possible that some areas have been cut off from others due to the damage and it's not actually known precisely what the situation is. Other than desperate.

Dame Shafik of the London School of Economics now talking - open Global Economy will continue to have incredibly costly inflictions. As more transaction costs are applied we will all be poorer for it. UK should be mindful that won't just be us but also other countries that already have souring poverty levels.

In the economic sphere it will not be like Cold War 1 - the global economy is fundamentally intertwined now unlike then. Her expectation is that mechanisms and rules for cooperation will be found even in this ongoing crisis.

soaring*

Thanks @MagicFox and everyone 🇺🇦

Pmk

Continued - This is a moment when the UK needs to step up and play a major international role. Many of our potential allies are struggling to reconcile perceived selfishness in Covid response (e.g. hoarding vaccines) and our desire to now be allies. We must not view this crisis in isolation, it is all linked.

Where is Lavrov anyway? Not heard or seen from him in weeks.

Just to be clear re my last post. Not personally - I mean in the press. We don't exchange Christmas cards or stuff like that.

I find it unbelievable that the Russians celebrate victory over the Nazis in WW11 and have now become them.

Thanks for your reports from the seminar @Igotjelly 🙂

Haha, well that would make the thread take an interesting turn if you were unveiled as a dear friend of Sergey 😂

Continued - Democracy is in decline and that is simply a fact. We need to make Govt policy to reflect that reality. Many countries and people are clear that other, alternative, systems can also be effective. If you take an economic wellbeing view of this, which is how many people view success, then this is true. The Govt needs to consider how to promote values (education, health, empowerment of minorities etc.) of democracy if it is to resurge.

Continued - Russian Ukraine crisis and China's less than successful zero-Covid policy are both examples of long-term authoritarian regimes failing due to over-confidence and a lack of alternative voices.

Thanks for this @Igotjelly