@blueshoes
"So articles which say that Russia might still win have an important role to play to avoid complacency"
Absolutely correct, for all you reasons you list.
I suspect none of us here get to see the raw intelligence so analysis, analysis of analysis, etc etc is to some degree suspect.
No matter how well we think things are going we need be careful of becoming complacent.
The good news is we are starting hear of heavier equipment/munitions (especially artillery) being delivered and also tales of the Ukrainians being able to rotate personnel away from the front line for training on some of the same...the bad news is this isn't looking like a quick "win' for the Ukraine.