Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Carl Bildt AT carlbildt
Remarkable exchange. And shows that tensions are building up in Russia over the high losses in the war it has started.
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1519379341372968960
Russian TV again. Worth a thought. It challenges the idea that Russians all want more war.

This time its a guy (in military uniform) who is upset over the number of dead. Its an interesting exchange.

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Gosh, would never have imagined this. Biden Administration calls for $33billion in military support for Ukraine. That’s almost 10 times the annual military support for Israel. This opens up a range of support options.

Also seems to indicate the Biden administration is convinced Putin is bluffing about nuclear weapons, as this is a direct challenge to everything Putin has said about escalating in response to NATO support for Ukraine.

Actually, if you take out corruption, it might match or the exceed the Russian defense budget in effectiveness

I was hoping that at some point we would attempt to win over some oligarchs rather than alienate them all. The phrases ‘divide and conquer’ and ‘win friends and influence people’ spring to mind. This will become a future theme.

on a related point, in the US a new ‘Lend-Lease’ Act was also going to be passed today. I wonder if this is tied into that. In which case, using seized assets to help Ukraine might not mean selling them and remitting the proceeds directly to Ukrainian people. It could simply mean appropriating funds into US reserves to offset the military bill.

To be honest I have been waiting for this announcement and thought it would be higher. I was expecting a knockout $160 billion or $180 billion, like a killer bid in an auction, rather than this drip-feed $700m every three weeks. Let the Kremlin know we are not prepared to piss about playing table tennis.

Pentagon Briefing

Jack Detsch AT JackDetsch
Russia has ~20 Navy vessels in the Black Sea, including submarines, despite loss of landing ship Saratov & cruiser Moskva: UK Defense Intel

Russia has NOT been able to replace Moskva due to Turkey closing off Bosphorous. Black Sea Fleet STILL can strike Ukrainian & coastal targets

Russia has launched more than 1,900 missiles into Ukraine since Feb. 24: senior U.S. defense official That's about 30 strikes per day. Russia is focusing strikes on Mariupol and Ukraine's troops in Donbas.

Russia is making "slow and uneven incremental progress" in the Donbas: senior U.S. defense official Russia still contesting Izyum in the south by can only sustain several miles of gains per day because of continued logistical problems.

Russia has now deployed more than 92 battalion tactical groups into Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official That's up from 82 BTGs in country about a week ago, when Pentagon officials last briefed.

The U.S. has transferred more than 60 percent of 90 M777 howitzers to Ukraine in the past week: senior U.S. defense official First group of 50 Ukrainian advisors trained on howitzers are back in Ukraine. 50 more are on day 2 of training.

The U.S. is conducting training for Ukrainian troops on American-provided armored personnel carriers outside of Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official

U.S. believes that some Russian forces are departing Mariupol and moving toward Zaprorizhia. About a dozen Russian battalion tactical groups have been in the area of Mariupol in recent days as intensified attacks on the Azovstal steel plant.

The U.S. is NOW conducting training for Ukrainian advisors on American-provided Q64 radars outside of Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official

US continues to see signs that Russia is trying to better integrate air-to-ground operations in the Donbas, but command & control is still “not optimal”: senior US defense official

Russia is limited to small advances because they're "wary of getting out ahead" of supply lines

U.S. expects worsening ground conditions in the Donbas in cloudy and rainy spring weather to slow Russian advance: senior U.S. defense official Russia could be slowed "by mud," the official said.

Ukraine's continued pushback has slowed Russia's advance in the Donbas: senior U.S. defense official

Russia is limited to "slow and uneven" and "incremental progress" in the Donbas, including near Izyum, about 75 miles south of Kharkiv.

Russia is mostly using naval capability in Ukraine to fire cruise missiles into the country and resupply Russian troops: senior U.S. defense official

Presence in the Black Sea is designed to "give pause" to Ukrainian troops to keep them near Odesa and Mykolaiv, away from Donbas.

The governments of the west need to make it crystal clear to their electorates that this is a war for democracy and personal freedom.

I think you will find it's the other way round. It's the electorate that makes things crystal clear to the government.

It's called democracy.

I see what you are trying to say about the need to explain the situation. Just think about the climate emergency though.. It's been in the news for year, the need to act is clearly, but it's still not accepted by everybody.

Phil Stewart AT phildstewart
BREAKING - Two powerful blasts heard in Russian region of Belgorod bordering Ukraine - two witnesses - Reuters

NEXTA AT nexta_tv
Russian media report that an air defense system was triggered over Belgorod (Russia).

I think it’s the press that use fear and smoke and mirrors to whip the electorate to be honest.

One day we might have to go to war to protect water sources and rainforests. When we do we won’t be recharging electric tanks every 60 miles. Oil is going to be around another 50 years or so.

Forcing us away from fossil fuels at an accelerated pace is one of the good side effects of this war.

The US is good to its word on sending over armaments. Eleven camber flights have crossed the Atlantic in 48 hours.
Charter Flights Operating for the US Military/DoD now have the Callsign "CAMBER".

Molodova has a potential plan to join NATO / EU via the backdoor, should it democratically want it....

Newsmax AT newsmax
Moldova President Maia Sandu said her country's unification with Romania would be possible if citizens wanted it.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/moldova-romania-president-unification/2022/04/28/id/1067636/

Transnistria has stopped men of fighting age leaving. This comes after a mass exodus to Moldova, who in turn have been travelling to Romania.

Putin is much better at destabilisation than war. He is also good at being a traitor and giving all the peoples' money to Oligarchs, who in turn prefer to build super yachts not weapons.
Many more fires around Russia today?

Bucha killers, photographed, named and shamed.

censor.net/ua/news/3337441/buchanski_katy_hto_z_rosiyan_katuvav_i_maroderyv_na_kyyivschyni_video

This video is over a month old, it was on Kamil Galeev's thread when he was trying to demonstrate that Russians don't have much respect for military. Although my take on this one is that the host was a bit scared that convo was getting derailed somewhere he didn't want to go...

Russian news mocking UK Homes for Ukraine system. For once they have a point... embarrassing!

US President Biden proposes record $33bn aid package to help Ukraine, hours after Russia warns West against sending more weapons

Pres. Biden’s new aid proposal for Ukraine includes funding for:
—Weapons and ammunition
—Humanitarian assistance
—Schools and hospitals to reopen
—Pensions and social support for Ukrainians
—Resources to address food shortages around world
t.co/JNflJlaR43 t.co/1EjIedauq3

Re making things crystal clear, governments sometimes have to lead.

If they're POWs, isn't that a breach of the Geneva Convention, "naming and shaming" them?

And yes, I know it doesn't seem fair if they're guilty war crimes as is suggested - but due process needs to be followed.

New thread : Ukraine Invasion: Part 23 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4539506-ukraine-invasion-part-23

These past few months have felt like a decade of political change on steroids.

There's going to be one hell of a global shake out following this and COVID-19. It took ten years for the effects of 9/11 to really sink in or the 2008 banking crisis. This is deeper, wider and and encompasses more countries and sectors than either.

Well I presume once they are 'within' a criminal process they may lose any GC protection. It is not my area of expertise though. As you say though, there could be an element of murkiness here.

Kyiv Independent

CNN: New video shows Russian soldiers, vehicles next to killed civilians in Bucha.

The video obtained by CNN was shot on March 12-13 by a drone. It shows Russian forces and armored vehicles near the bodies of the dead people in Bucha, a city in Kyiv Oblast.

The video confirms that the atrocities in Bucha were committed when the city was occupied by the Russian forces.

Russian propaganda has been trying to claim that the bodies were planted by Ukrainians after Russians left the area.

Video link here
edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/04/27/tl-5p-rivers-jake-tapper-live.cnn

Info wars, info wars, info wars.

Putin has managed to have devastating bang for his buck in attacking other countries without any of his trolls leaving their squeaky plastic chairs. He fuels whichever local divisive issue is going.

Catalan separatist riots, Black Lives Matter, refugee-fueled xenophobic nationalism, Brexit, all the other posited -exits (inc Calexit)...

I think there's a real possibility the world might win the battle of Ukraine but lose the war of Vlad-the-global-imperialist. His toxic legacy may long outlast his life, never mind the period his troops have their feet on Ukraine soil.

@PerkingFaintly what's the Black Lives Matter movement got to do with Putin?

Open to correction but as understand those individuals are not POWs. They've been identified by the Ukranian authorities and presumably the images that we are seeing have been gleaned from social media, not from POW "mug shots".

I did say "if"

....but if they - or some of them - have indeed been captured, as previous reports have suggested, then care should be taken.