Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Agree @ljsbear what freaks me out is the chip implant in humans that seems to be a natural next step. Paying for drinks is one thing but what about further advances, when it is packed full of our private data? That's a road paved with good intentions if ever I saw one.

Coming true?

Has always been true.

It was an observation of a phenomena merely applied to a modern western nation. We associate it with the past yet we know its used all over the world in the present.

I actually find the vranyo thing quite reassuring because it suggests a consciousness that somewhat anchors the crazy blatantness of the lies. It makes it possible to consider the Russians as more rational actors rather than crazy nut jobs. Not that the two are mutually exclusive but it does bring some kind of logic to the illogical claims coming out of the Kremlin

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat which is why getting rid of Putin wouldn't be the end of it which means that this isn't necessarily just Putin's war...

Tim White AT TWMCltd
One story I am keeping tabs on is the reported kidnapping in Ukraine of a Bulgaria diplomat.

The news is just being picked up on in the country after the mayor of Melitopol announced that Russian soldiers had abducted Honorary Consul, Sergei Zhelev

Source
Russian forces have kidnapped Bulgaria's honorary consul in Melitopol, Sergei Zhelev

“1984” - “War is Peace”

I have just found this interesting PHD paper 1986 on the Soviet Union and “Reflexive Control” which is as far as I can make out planting a seed in someone’s mind which then leads to them being taking over by idea and acting in the just the way you planned.

The writer points out that in the Soviet mind “Peace” requires being in control of the world, therefore war to achieve it.

The Russian word “Mir”, Peace also means “World”.

The PHD writer Diane Chotikul who was at The Naval Postgraduate School Monterey California 1986 doesn’t seem well known but I found this very interesting:

It is interesting to note here a most convenient ambiguity in the Russian language regarding the word for peace Mir When Soviet pacifists shout or carry slogans reading Trebuyem Mira it is commonly translated as We demand peace '30 An equally accurate translation however is We demand the world
From:
Diane Chotikul, The Soviet Theory of Reflexive Control in Historical and Psychocultural Perspective: A Preliminary Study, July 1986. Unclassified

nsarchive.gwu.edu/media/15364/ocr.

or here is the original, typed out PHD
core.ac.uk/download/pdf/36723008.pdf.
or here is the original typed out phd

By "coming true", I mean the fine detail: the listening devises, the "Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania" with skirmishes slightly moving the border backwards and forwards, the re-writing of history before our very eyes (viz. the new editions of Russian school books eliminating the existence of Ukraine), the TVs that are also listening devices and universal surveillance and in Putin, Big Brother (although iirc, that was inspired by Stalin, so not much changed there ).

That's all from memory: it's over 40 years since I read it at school and it made a big impression on me. I remember during the Thatcher years thinking that she epitomised the policy of "boot grinding a face/the proles into the ground forever" and snuffing out any hope of better - but she was nothing compared to what we're enduring now

The 1984 society in the book had been in place for quite a while - that's why I said the timing was 40 years out.

The reports from the Kherson front suggest Ukraine may be 15km from Chornobayivka and 25km from Kherson City Centre.

Insert the word 'Woman' in English and I think its easy to see we also suffer from a problem...

@RedToothBrush
“Insert the word 'Woman' in English and I think its easy to see we also suffer from a problem...”

Yes. I do find all of that very similar - though ostensibly not as important on the surface - extremely insidious and destructive.

Remember the comments from both Ukrainian and Russian sides about being driven mad at night by the Ukrainians?

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko
This is an extremely useful thread in explaining why Ukraine's military increasingly "Owns the night"

George J Stathakis AT gjstathakis
1-Let’s talk about night operations and the Russians inability to execute night ops or defend against them. Night operations take skill and time to master. Seemed the Ukrs we’re using their more elite units to pull these attacks off at 1st but now..

2-there are regular units having success against the Rus at night. The Rus have poor training as is evident from numerous videos that are available. Basics squad level responses to attacks are just not there. Now imagine what is happening at night? I’m sure it’s an …..

3-absolute disaster of a response. Panic and quick abandonment of positions and equipment. During Desert Storm the Iraqis learned to dread the night. Apache gunships we’re mauling them at night and broke their will to fight. With cloud cover it was pitch black. Iraqis camped..

4- around their tanks/APCs running their engines bc of the cold when all of a sudden the tank/APC 25 meters to either side of yours disintegrated from a missile strike you heard 1 second before impact. Talk about a Code Brown situation. The next night again and it just …

5-continues for weeks. You’re a sitting duck in your crapped in uniform praying you’ll survive the next night’s assault. This is what is in store for Russian troops in the Donbas. Ukrs have drones with thermal imaging that can guide precision Excalibur rounds to the Russian…

6-positions. They are about to experience the terror of the Iraqi Army during Desert Storm before the offensive even took place. How long to the Russians hold under such a terrifying experience of being surgically eliminated at night? This is something that will surely …..

7- change the numbers of any engagement to the Ukrs favor. Patience over the next 2 weeks with a night campaign of bombarding Rus positions will win this war. After 2 weeks Ukrs should be able to rout whoever is foolhardy enough to have stayed in Ukraine. This operation might…

8-start until all training on the 155s is completed but it will place the advantage with the Ukrainians for good…

I would agree with that.

I think they are survivors and have learned to survive at all costs.

Interview with Viktor Yushchenko, former president of Ukraine
I’ve dealt with Putin before: I know what it will take to defeat this brutal despot
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/24/vladimir-putin-despot-russia-viktor-yuschenko

Simon Tisdall talks about the possible repercussions outside Ukraine of a Russian victory, it's interesting but I hope he is wrong about this.
The awful truth is dawning: Putin may win in Ukraine. The result would be catastrophe
Simon Tisdall
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/the-awful-truth-is-dawning-putin-may-win-in-ukraine-the-result-would-be-catastrophe

The awful truth is dawning: Putin may win in Ukraine. The result would be catastrophe

Not read the article yet but the title is exasperating.

The initial assessment by just about everyone was that the Russians would win. Now we're having to remind ourselves that it's a possibility that they still might. Even assuming that we are being perhaps overoptimistic ....

.... we've come a LONG LONG way from those first days.

Ive read the article now. It's very silly.

"It suggests lack of coordination between the UN chief and a permanent member of the UN security council on how best to proceed."

Well yes, what did he expect? it's politicians. It's amazing we -have- pulled together this well this fast.

"concern grows that this conflict has no end-point and that the enormous economic and human damage that results may be permanent – and global.""

The first thought was that conflict would take 3 days, and Ukraine would lose. Now they're held their own and are fighting for the East. That's a positive thing and given how fucking effective the Ukrainians are we just can't tell how long the war will last.

As for the economic and human cost being huge, that was a given from the moment that the Ukranians decided to fight. The grain stores are the most obvious but it's also the sanctions etc etc etc. But if Ukraine had folded then the food insecurity would have gone - for now. Russia's influence would have extended and eventually they'd have gone for Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe along with their less-martial endeavours in Africa, and partially martial work in the ME. That woudl re-create the instability all over again because, you know, war is destabilizing.

When Russia was at the hands of a Putin, war was always going to come. The Eastern European countries knew that for a long time. The moment Russia really did invade, the more perceptive analysts realised it too. This guy's taken a bit of a long time to get there.

I agree that the West needs to support Ukraine with everything it has. But that article is somewhat ridiculous.

I wasn't keen on the title either, they often overdo it. It was an interesting read.

This concept of "vranyo" is fascinating. I don't recall encoutnering it before (although it has been many years since I read the Russian classics -- perhaps they are due another visit).

I came across this article in the NY Times on the topic, which feels relevant but is also somehow rather poignant: www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/from-russia-with-lies.html

There was a similar incident recounted in the Putin podcast on BBC sounds recommonded on these threads, where he posed with a Siberian white tiger for a conservation-related photo op but the poor tiger was from the zoo and had to be tranquilised three times because Putin was late and the tiger ended up dying. Seems to sum up the ineptitude, callousness, lack of respect for life, outright lies and pretences that go with this Putin administration in one small incident.

I am smiling to myself at Ukraine's quiet forays at night. It gives hope that Ukraine is gearing up for an almighty offensive battle in Donbas but keeping their powder dry in the meantime, whilst defending and pushing back the latest Russian advance.

It seems strangely quiet ... I wonder whether the visit to Kyiv from the US Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin has taken place. Are they there or announced to be there on Sunday as a form of a US human shield over Orthodox Easter?

The increased chatter and concern about grain/food shortages is baffling. I've seen quite a lot of "compromise on Donbas/coast because of food shortages this year".

Because allowing Russia a more permanent stranglehold on grain as WELL as oil sounds like a good long term outcome?

>Russian forces have kidnapped Bulgaria's honorary consul in Melitopol, Sergei Zhelev

Just as there are Greek minorities in S Ukraine, including Mariupol, there's a Bulgarian diaspora. Many ethnic Bulgarians are descended from refugees fro Turkish occupied Bulgaria when liberation uprisings failed.

Also Sergei Stanishev, Bulgarian Socialist PB 2005-9, was born in Kherson, though his background is more complex.

I don’t think the article is ridiculous at all.

I think it is a timely panned back overview and reminder of the significant far reaching global geopolitical consequences at a time when many are reporting and reacting to the day to day detail on the ground.

Big picture, small picture both have their place in the discourse, especially to hold interest when fatigue and desensitisation sets in.

Another day with no safe evacuation routes out of Mariupol.

Max Seddon AT Max Seddon
Vladimir Putin has lost interest in diplomatic efforts to end the war, according to three people briefed on conversations with the Russian president.

Instead, he appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

Putin appears to hold what one source called "a distorted picture of reality."

He has insisted, despite all evidence to the contrary, that his forces have not targeted civilians during attacks such as the siege of the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol.

The peace talks faltered when Ukraine discovered evidence of war crimes in formerly occupied towns like Bucha.

Then after Ukraine sank the Moskva, "Putin was against signing anything. [ . . . ] he doesn’t look like a winner, because it was humiliating."

Ukraine worries Putin may go beyond Russia’s stated goal of capturing the Donbas and try to seize the whole of the south-east, cutting Ukraine off from the sea.

"Putin sincerely believes in the nonsense he hears on television and he wants to win big."

Ukraine's request is for the West to send it as many weapons as humanly possible asap.

The message out there has to strike a balance between 'yes, ukraine can win' (so that the West does not think their weapons won't make a difference) but not so positive that the West thinks 'russia is so f_ucked it is going to lose' (so the West thinks they can get away with not giving more weapons).

There is a much bigger risk of the latter because inaction is easier than action.

So articles which say that Russia might still win have an important role to play to avoid complacency, the usual war fatigue and other pressing issues settling in. They do make me slightly despondent though.

I agree totally. There are bigger things at play here and we have already entered the beginning of a new war though the temperature is far from clear. The world is made up of some basic geometric shapes and if the Kremlin win we can easily have a polarisation of West and East with the dark continent and south-east Asia as the long term spoils of war. Russia and China may do well back to back - as the Roman soldiers fought - with Russia facing down Europe while China faces down the US and Australia in the East. Divide and conquer rings a bell.

The dictatorships - including the UAE - have already declared the hegemony of the West is over. No doubt those countries smell the money in Russia and China underpinned by enormous natural resources. The people of those countries are the losers, but as we have learned this week they can feel rich with a jar of Nutella and a toilet seat. Yet mostly these are things are ordered on other things that are designed in the US or South Korea. More needs to be done to reach out to the people of Russia and China but it may be too late now.

I do not have much time today to keep up with this thread, but I do think now is the most important time in my living memory - this year, this month, these next few days. We all know Zelensky is right.

Let's hope we are prepared to make sacrifices ourselves one day. We may not like them, but we may have to send our own children to enlist in war or merely to enforce a peace. Above all let's hope then we have some form of national unity, because at the moment it is not clear to me that we do have.