Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

Thanks for that @Hillsmakeyoustrong

NEW: Boris Johnson announces UK embassy in Kyiv will reopen next week.

To be fair @Alexandra2001 - this is a "master" Ukraine thread so there is only one so we congregate here. It's also very fast moving - look how quickly each of them fill up.

Thread 21 means an average of 1000 posts roughly every 3 days.

Plus, as many PP have pointed out, there are many lurkers who read but don't or only occasionally post.

In contrast, for example, the current Trump thread (I think it's approaching 700 posts) has been going since November or December.

Kyiv Independent

⚡️ UN documents 5,264 verified civilian casualties in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

2,345 people have been killed and 2,919 injured.

“Over these 8 weeks, international humanitarian law has been seemingly tossed aside,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said.

I see that the PM has acknowledged that there is a realistic chance of Russia winning the war in Ukraine. Given the new, more limited, official Russian aims is there any chance that this new messaging could be a way to offer Putin an off-ramp that lets him “win” - just reading alongside the remarks in the Washington post about the dangers of an all out failure for Putin.

If the PM has acknowledged there is a realistic chance of Russia winning ..... that's actually one hell of an assessment downwards from "Russia has invaded and will overrun Ukraine within 3 days".

On the surface its a bit of a depressing comment but actually, it's simply a reminder that Ukraine isn't guaranteed victory.

Ria-Novosky - Russia’s plans for Ukraine 04/04/22 A
ccl.org.ua/en/news/ria-novosti-has-clarified-russias-plans-vis-a-vis-ukraine-and-the-rest-of-the-free-world-in-a-program-like-article-what-russia-should-do-with-ukraine-2/

That video clip of Putin being briefed by his defence minister regarding Mariupol is very revealing.
Putin's foot tapping under the table, he is a man in a hurry.
The uncharacteristic concern with the welfare of his officers and soldiers; has he become aware of criticism about Russian casualty figures.
His hand gripping the table, presumably to stop him gripping his defence minister by the throat and sqeezing hard.
All is not well at the top table in the Kremlin.

@Ijsbear - I think it was Brezhnev whose death was not confirmed until some time after his death. There were then two other leaders, Andropov and Chernenko, in fairly rapid succession who spent considerable amounts of time in hospital with serious health complaints which effectively meant they weren't capable of leading. When Andropov died, the Soviet authorities didn't confirm his death straightaway.

Oh I remember Andropov and Chernenko yeah. Bit likethe Year of Four Emperors wasn't it.

Still wondering who would take over after Mr KGB. Lavrov? Shoigu? A dark horse?

Someone on Times radio said that they think some really bad news is coming from Ukraine and that is why Boris Johnson said it. In reality they don't know anymore than we do.

@Ijsbear

Oh I remember Andropov and Chernenko yeah. Bit likethe Year of Four Emperors wasn't it.

Still wondering who would take over after Mr KGB. Lavrov? Shoigu? A dark horse?

AFAIK, Shoigu is (or at least was) very popular with the public so my money would have been on him at the start of the invasion, perhaps less likely now (especially with his 'heart problems'). I think Putin endorsed Medvedev as his successor a long while back, but he would have been more of a puppet leader to allow Putin to rule by proxy. Not sure if Medvedev would take over the reins if Putin actually kicked the bucket.

*kicked the bucket. Ends of comments keep getting chopped off 🤦🏼‍♀️

Your post was complete for me so wonder why it looks like it’s getting cut off for you.

Wizz Air reopening ticket sales to Kyiv this summer.

If Putin indeed wants a corridor along the South, then that means that Ukraine won't have access to the Black Sea, which would a catastrophe for Ukraine and that the Russian will have to take Odessa which will be a catastrophe for Russia.

Lose lose all the way.

@Igotjelly - this is how I see @shreddednips post, so the final words chopped off as described (I've also suspected the same thing on other "quoted" posts elsewhere).

Maybe it's yet another an app problem?

In sort of good news, at least on the app, photos can still be seen at "proper" size ( and can be zoomed in on). If you're on the desk top, I understand that you might not be able to see the writing

Daily lurker also giving her thanks

Another one delurking to say that I've read every thread since the beginning and am very grateful to the knowledgeable posters here. Thank you to all and please continue posting.

For any podcast fans, this is to be released tomorrow and looks like it will be very informative (it's also a brilliant podcast in general). Two Ukrainian journalists who left for Ireland give their insights into the war.
www.instagram.com/p/CcpYK_oqVWu/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

A thread on the Russian statement. It's long so I have only copied the first and last tweets

twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1517464441645846529?t=r6UzfEVDYWWt3-HqtWOMcA&s=19
A lot of misinterpretations of Deputy commander of Russian Central Military District Rustam Minnekaev’s statement this morning on this site. Here is what he actually said:https://t.co/mfs2Rd3KoQ

So Minnekaev is largely stating the obvious facts that Russia is in the midst of a new offensive to try to take Donbas, already controls land bridge to Crimea and has an option for a “way out to Transnistria” from the South if it ever decides/musters up forces for that fight

Reports that Russia is “prepared to allow fighters and civilians to leave the steel plant” - wouldn’t trust any guarantees from Russia as far as I could chuck them!

Also Moldova has taken initial steps towards EU accession.

Yeah, it s just so depressing, that this war may well go on for many months longer.
I was particularly moved by a post by @Ijsbear (i think) about two young girls and their fate, the article showed pictures of the two taking selfies, made up with layers of make up and pouts, they looked just like my own DD and now they are dead.

I hope that one day, Putin & his Generals will suffer the same end as Gadhafi , ripped apart by a mob.

If MN don't like that tough, its what i want.

high level diplomatic engagement ramping up again too. Charles Michel had a call with Putin today and President Erdogan will speak to Putin and Zelensky soon.

I'll believe it when I see it.