Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

MN is driving me potty and keeps erroring on links, so I can't do them atm (this is my 4th attempt at this thread).

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Quick update on the Battle of the Donbas as two different narratives seem to are floating around. The picture given by Ukrainian armed forces is that the Russians are continuing operations, but making little or no progress and suffering losses.

Here is last night's update with the portions on that battle excerpted.

The Ukrainian update this morning (here is the facebook link to the Ukrainian report, but you can use a translation service to read) is the same. Lots of Russian grinding around the edges but few advances.

The AT ISW report last night was in the same vein. Russians making marginal gains while suffering regular losses.

Otoh, at least in some UK papers there are stories by unnamed western analysts that the Russians have gotten their act together and are possibly on the cusp of great successes in the Donbas.

Its behind a paywall, but here is an excerpt. Russians might be so strong (claimed 3-1 advantages in the Donbas) that they could not only surround and destroy Ukrainian forces, but might even march on Kyiv! Wow.

Even a story in the Daily Mail of the Russians unleashing a Blitzkrieg on Kharkiv yesterday. Wow again! Though on close reading the blitzkrieg doesnt exist--they killed some civilians with terror attacks and gained no ground, but hey ho.

The reason for such an extraordinary claims (other than the fact that newspapers still have no idea how to report on what might be a real strategic success in this war) is that the Russians have appointed a new overall commander who excels at war crimes.

So we have the Ukrainian narrative, of the Russians feeding in forces around the line, making a few small advances, losing casualties. And a UK newspaper narrative fed by analysts of a large and powerful Russian army unleashing blitzkriegs on Ukraine and possibly marching on Kyiv

We will see who is right. Though sober analysis on Russia air power and tank numbers gives little comfort to the overwhelming, Russian blitzkrieg narrative. Here is AT edwardstrngr great thread on the airwar last night.
(RTB - I posted this last night. It was about the drones being a poorman's plane but they might well we very useful and NATO might have a lot to learn from it)

Also reports that actually the Ukrainians have more tanks in all Ukraine (and are receiving now a huge amount of new NATO reinforcement in artillery and UAVS).

I wonder if the problem is the large, powerful Russian narrative has become so ingrained in different analysts minds, that even in the face of it shown to be wrong, they keep hoping it will be right. Sometimes its better to trust what you have seen over what you expected to see.

If you want a quick rule to judge whether any reporting on the Battle of the Donbas might be credible; see if it tries to integrate air power. AirPower has been the greatest determinant in battles for more than 80 years. Articles which avoid it are garbage.

Not a bad summary of the situation around Izium, where Russia has deployed around 30% of the BTGs they have in Ukraine, If Ukrainian estimates are correct.
(RTB - I think I have seen that the front in the East is 300miles long, yet they've got 30% of their BTG here. If they can't break through here, its unlikely they are going to do much else in other places. There has been very heavy bombing this overnight / this morning on the Zaporizhzhia frontline though - thats the one north of Mariupol)
)

Illia Ponomarenko AT IAPonomarenko
Here at the Izium axis, Russia has up to 25 BTGs, parts of the 1st Tank Army, the 20th and the 35th Combined Arms armies, and also some airborne troops. That’s according to the Ukrainian military. Russia has had a very limited progress over the last few days. Via Live UA Map

Drones to search out command centres would tie in with apparent Ukrainian tactics of targetting high ranking general staff. Certainly without officers the Russian Army seems to become rudderless.

As an aside, I've just heard of someone who applied for visas for the Homes For Ukraine scheme on Sunday (on a bank holiday weekend). 3 people, including one 14 year old. They have been approved as of this morning (both adults in the host house already have valid DBS for other things so this might also be a factor). They did have passports so thats probably a big factor but that sounds significantly better than some of the reports that we've heard. I need to check in on someone else who has been trying to get a young family over with no passport as she was having a nightmare with it though.

I cannot wait for us to move on to thread 22 - not because it means more atrocities have happened, but hopefully my flipping bookmarks will save on a new thread. It's driving me crazy having to scroll through each time!

Look at this thread? basically the same few posters, no one seems interested.

I come on occasionally to post. My family has a long history of serving in armed conflict with the British Army in all three branches. Three generations of ancestor fought in wars and one was never recovered from a foreign country. I served too and have an adult child who is now in training. The reason I come on here is to share some historic, accumulated knowledge while also learning some new things from other people. RTB has certainly impressed on me the need to use Twitter more and others have impressed me also with some coherent writing and some balanced conclusions about things as diverse as refugees and the faking of data. Some posters impress me less so.

I cannot be omnipresent because I remain busy on many levels. Last week I was organising funds to Ukraine. I am just so lucky to be able to do that from the comfort of an armchair in the UK. Yesterday I was meeting all day with my PR contact as we have an angle on a particular Russian commercial sector to exploit geopolitically. At 60 I have been lucky to have a life with experience in at least three sectors and I can say without exception these are the most dangerous times for the West in my living memory. Putin - and he does not act alone - always knew how to exploit polarisation. For the West the wrong Russian kid with the right background got promotion at the wrong time. The natural resources of Russia are enormous and much untapped. But he does not wield the most power on this planet, not even close. The real power play is between the US (the West's proxy) and China. As I have said on earlier threads, I have some conviction that 'we' always knew it would come to this. War is never accidental and it can be exploited. In the end, just like Afghanistan last year, events came suddenly. Quicker than the 'West' wanted.

Over Easter I sat down with people for meals. We have a mixed bag of friends and all rub along well. It was noticeable how well informed people are of what is going on. From the historical background of NATO, world grain supplies to the UK's stance on refugees. The table could have represented a cross section of MN. In fact, it would not surprise me if one of you is here. People do care, but life has to go on. You can only help others if you are strong and focused as always. The world is undergoing change on many levels and now is the time to overwhelmingly assert the values of democracy together with its rights and personal obligations.

really great post Targus.

There is some precedent, in Russia, for pretending a dead leader is still alive. Clearly Putin is not yet dead, unfortunately, but I agree he looks very ill.

There is? I missed that one. what when?

Looking again at that pic of Darth Putin, his hand still seems to be gripping the table with a tension that is unusual compared to the other photos. Could be just stress I suppose.

Are there any viable successors to him?

There was an article in the Washington Post today about Putin and Biden setting boundaries for the conflict with their recent language. It was a paid article so wasn’t able to read it and wondered if anyone else had and could summarise?

Also just seen on Twitter that feminist groups are sending in HIV and abortion medication to Ukraine for those women raped by Russian soldiers. I’m glad this is happening.

@TargusEasting ..but Targus you are one of the regular posters on here and obv do care plus birds of a feather fly together.

One only has to look at the trending threads on MN or the daily papers headlines, Ukraine has drifted away from peoples focus, the situation Mariupol is akin to anything seen outside of a concentration camp in WW2 but we are more likely to see a headline on Megan Markel, that isn't "life" thats an abdication of responsiblity.

We are now making the same mistakes with India and China (as you say) tossing aside trade with our nearest proven allies and seeking a new one with India, who back Putin and are weakening the effectiveness of sanctions.

Hardly surprising though.

RTB MN is driving me potty and keeps erroring on links, so I can't do them atm (this is my 4th attempt at this thread).

I am having the same problems and someone else (sorry for not remembering who) mentioned it as well earlier.

I lurk on these threads daily. It's better than getting sucked into Twitter and I appreciate the reasoned discourse from those who have the experience to filter out the sabre-ratting from the real threats.

Illia Ponomarenko

🇺🇦Police: 1,084 dead bodies of civilians have been revealed in the Kyiv region, as of now.
^75% of them shot dead with firearms.
It was nothing but a killing spree unleashed by Russi^a.

Opinion: Are Biden and Putin agreeing on limits to the war? Just read their statements.
By David Ignatius
Columnist|Follow
Yesterday at 6:41 p.m. EDT

Take a careful look at presidential statements from Russia and the United States this week, and you’ll see that the leaders of the two countries appear to be clarifying their goals in Ukraine — as the war shifts to a concentrated, bitter fight for control of the eastern part of the country.

The latest statements by President Vladimir Putin and President Biden don’t preclude a dangerous escalation. But they do offer public descriptions of each side’s goals in ways that may reduce the risk of miscalculation — perhaps setting parameters for what Cold War strategists would have called an “agreed battle.”
Putin’s new message, implicit but unmistakable, is retrenchment. Having failed in his initial push to seize Kyiv and topple the government, he now speaks of controlling the Russian-speaking eastern part of the country, known as Donbas, and neighboring areas along the coast. Biden’s message, by contrast, has become more assertive: stepping up U.S. military aid to Ukraine and vowing to resist Putin’s hegemony over Kyiv, even as he quietly recognizes certain limits.

Thanks @Hillsmakeyoustrong !

Contd...

Putin focused in two statements this week on the priority of securing the Donbas region, which Russia views as independent of Kyiv. Protecting the separatists in Donbas from the central government was Putin’s pretext for invasion when he launched the war Feb. 24. But in the opening weeks of the war, he also appeared to be seeking the overthrow of President Volodymyr Zelensky, with his nonsensical talk of the “denazification” of Ukraine. With Russia’s failure to capture Kyiv, that broader goal seems to have receded.

Putin emphasized the Donbas mission on Wednesday, at a choreographed meeting with a group that included a 12-year-old girl from that region. “As I said at the very beginning, the purpose of this operation is exactly to help our people living in Donbas, people like you. We will act consistently and achieve a situation where life will gradually return to normal there,” he said.
Putin amplified this message in a meeting Thursday with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Putin claimed victory in the southern coastal city of Mariupol and praised the Russian troops there who have assaulted the city for weeks, asserting that they “sacrificed their lives so that our people in Donbas live in peace and to enable Russia, our country, to live in peace.”

But he ordered Shoigu not to storm Ukrainian fighters still entrenched beneath a steel complex outside Mariupol, telling his defense minister to instead “prioritize preserving the lives and health of our soldiers and officers.” That didn’t sound like a president ready to pay the butcher’s bill for a bloody campaign to capture all of Ukraine.

Reports that Putin’s gymnast girlfriend has reappeared in Moscow. So clearly been allowed out of her nuclear bunker (if she was actually ever in one.)

Contd...

Biden offered a similarly pointed summary of American priorities in remarks Thursday at the White House. He announced another $800 million in military aid for Ukraine, matching a similar package just a week ago, and praised the “fearless and skilled Ukrainian fighters” resisting Russia’s invasion. He said that the United States could sustain its military support to Ukraine “for a long time.” But Biden avoided, as he has since the beginning of the war, any suggestion of direct U.S. military involvement.
Biden underlined NATO unity against Russia, another bedrock theme of U.S. policy. The alliance, he said, was “sending an unmistakable message to Putin: He will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine. He will not — that will not happen.” Biden’s statement, though resolute in tone, left open the possibility that Putin might occupy some of Ukraine, in the southeastern region where Russian attacks are now concentrated.

The comments this week in Moscow and Washington illustrate the way in which war can sometimes clarify choices and reduce uncertainty. Finding such stability was the premise of the “agreed battle” formula discussed by some Cold War strategists. Herman Kahn of Rand Corp., famed as a “wizard of Armageddon," once postulated a specific “escalation ladder” for superpower conflict. The ladder had 44 rungs; nuclear weapons were to be used only at rung 15.

Putin’s renewed emphasis on Donbas, with its implicit message of limited war aims, could reduce some of the pressures for escalation.

Another lurker who has read every single thread, but never posted. I am not well informed on this sort of thing and speaking about it doesn't come naturally to me. However I greatly appreciate those who do post here and have learnt a great deal.

I agree that it isn't really spoken about much outside of this thread or in my day to day life, however I don't think that necessarily means people aren't interested or don't care. I am interested yet rarely bring it up to colleagues/family/friends as it doesn't feel like a normal thing to do. I think to some people it would come across as slightly hysterical.
I think for those who genuinely don't want to read or talk about it and state that they aren't interested, it could be due to the fact that they can't change or have any impact on any of it, so they might not want to waste time worrying about it and overthinking it. Even if it does start to affect them in future, why worry about it now. I can actually understand where they are coming from, but for me I'm far too much of a worrier to ignore it, and tend to want to know everything about something that is going on.

Final part! Sorry for the drip feed

But paradoxically, if Putin’s forces fail in Donbas over the next few weeks, as they did in the battle for Kyiv, the situation could become more unpredictable and potentially dangerous. The odds of escalation might increase again.
As if to remind the West of his other options, Putin this week watched by video the test of a new Russian intercontinental ballistic missile. This nuclear-weapons delivery system “will be a wake-up call for those who are trying to threaten our country in the frenzy of rabid, aggressive rhetoric,” Putin warned. It was a staged event, more chest-thumping about Russian capabilities than specific threat. But it offered another glimpse of the dangers that lie beyond the current parameters of the Ukraine conflict.

Finally, an unlikely personal footnote: As I was drafting this column, Russia announced that I was among 29 Americans who are banned indefinitely from traveling to Russia. This sanctions list is an unusual group, including Vice President Harris and her husband, fellow journalists George Stephanopoulos of ABC and my Post Opinions colleague Robert Kagan, and tycoons such as Mark Zuckerberg of Meta.
I guess that means the Foreign Ministry won’t be issuing the visa granted last fall for me to travel to Russia. But, hey, at least my columns are being read in Moscow.

“The Liberation of Mariupol” posted on Max Sedona ‘s Twitter

I don’t think the video has linked up, put if you click on this you feel see a macabre video of what looks like a band of medieval men in modern soldier’s clothes with flags, and sort of cultish main commander shouting out something. Behind is a fire. All around is derelict. It doesn’t look like liberation. It looks like some big goblins gathering the at the mouth of hell.

max seddon (@maxseddon) Tweeted: Russia's "liberation" of Mariupol looks like this, according to Ramzan Kadyrov's Telegram channel t.co/3iAhVqPnZJ

twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517202551858421763?s=20&t=Bdu9kOa1o-qXW95PIB8p2g

Max Seddon

Kevin Rothrock was also banned from Russia yesterday. Any journalist banned from Russia is probably doing a good job and worth following in my book.

Anyway, its just been announced that the British Embassy is to reopen in Kyiv next week.

NEW: PM reveals to @Steven_Swinford at the press conf in India UK looking to send tanks to Poland so Poles can send T72s to Ukraine > significant shift upward in UK support for Ukraine, what knock on for NATO and Russia reaction?