Ukraine Invasion Part 18

[Ijsbear]

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

They are playing a dangerous game. Putins paranoia will have twigged this is what they are doing ... maybe they think they can push him so far into a corner he'll squeak ?

I don't think they are playing a dangerous game, I actually think they are very measured in their response. That fence is no necessarily a bad thing.

The thing is though that the balance of power is shifting. Russia is weakening, China is getting stronger and we, the West are sowing the seeds of future problems. I think we miscalculated. We backed Ukraine, pushed Russia, and are now weakening Russia. We needed Russia to balance China, because out next problem will be there.

Have you factored in regime change, a reconciliation and a Russia more united with Europe than ever before? Russians' biggest gripe is they have never felt regarded as Europeans. That may change with regime change.

[quote PippinStar]Ukraine’s marines deny their troops have surrendered en masse to Russia in Mariupol … this is in relation to the video doing the rounds yesterday apparently showing that 250+ marines surrendered.

twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1511238802701959171?s=21&t=qTqbI8X3DSXNiGtnI7_H9g[/quote]
I have just watched a clip on UK terrestrial TV showing a group of at least 100 Ukrainian soldiers marching under surrender.

Have you factored in regime change, a reconciliation and a Russia more united with Europe than ever before? Russians' biggest gripe is they have never felt regarded as Europeans. That may change with regime change

I'm sceptical about this. Sorry.

Import ban on coal is good, hopefully it will force a certain Finnish energy firm to stop importing Russian coal and claiming it can't stop until its contracts are finished. Greenpeace were trying to stop them unloading today but got arrested.

Feel guilty that I was following this thread so closely for so long and just realised I hadn't checked in for a while.

Noticed on Zelensky instagram he has a video of the damage caused by Putin and his army. How can the world just sit by whilst the country of Ukraine is smashed to smithereens.

The guy must be so tired of what must feel like banging his head against a wall trying to get support from other countries.

Last I heard there was talks that were thought to be heading towards peace. No?

^twitter.com/Anonymous_Link/status/1511024536115982352^

Anonymity is fading.

There's a good side to this and a bad side. Good because rapists and murderers in war have historically been unaccountable. Ok maybe 0.0001% have been caught, but mostly it's an unpunished crime.

Bad because misused, this will become a tool to victimize.

One to handle carefully.

[quote TargusEasting]@RedToothBrush
Instead, they have sat behind public opinion or simply sat and watched rather than driving it. They didn't care until the media showed up and made it unavoidable as a subject. Because of a 'its not my problem' / 'I can bury my head in the sand' type attitude.
It makes me incredibly angry. It outright apathy and almost like the response of a deer transfixed in the headlights of oncoming traffic.

There is another possibility of course. This was all foreseeable and preordained. Incredible but possible as part of the long game.[/quote]
Do you think that really could have happened?

I could see it as part of 'what if' long term strategic planning but I don't think they actually saw it coming. There are too many reports that Putin had a measure of trust from other leaders.

@Natsku

Import ban on coal is good, hopefully it will force a certain Finnish energy firm to stop importing Russian coal and claiming it can't stop until its contracts are finished. Greenpeace were trying to stop them unloading today but got arrested.

Does the UK still have the 300 years coal reserves I haven't heard a word about since school ?

According to this, a bit less (like 298 years less) www.worldometers.info/coal/uk-coal/

Earlier Italy, now Spain

Spain to expel 25 Russian diplomats

FM Jose Manuel Albares announced that Spain is finalizing the list of diplomats who “represent a threat to the security interests of Spain after the terrible actions in Ukraine, especially in Bucha,” Albares said as quoted by El Pais.

I think Sweden and Denmark have also expelled Russian diplomats

Zelensky's address to UN Security Council to start shortly. I've got it on BBC News.

Session has opened with Russian Ambassador.

@Ijsbear

I am keeping an open mind about it. Factors around the Iraq invasion of 2003 and the eventual outcome of that war, combined with obiter events suggest to me that things are not always what they immediately seem. There are subtleties in this world that play people like Trump and Blair. Putin is not invulnerable either.

@DGRossetti

Ideally, someone should arm the Ukraine with some ( very identifiable ) Chinese weapons. There is no way there aren't some held safely somewhere in the west. Even if they are in special effects stores. Because frankly at this stage of the game there needs to be some pushing going on. Let the Chinese tell Putin that's "fake news" and see how that goes.

Dear god don't draw China in like that. If you think Russia is bad, China would be ... catastrophic.

Zelensky now

Dear god don't draw China in like that. If you think Russia is bad, China would be ... catastrophic

There is a danger - and maybe this is a Western strategy - of going "Oh fuck it, we've had enough."

Anyway, pushing an allegedly fake story with Ukrainian forces loading a "Bejing Baby" RPG would certainly cause China to have to deal with paranoid Putin on steroids. See if he believes their claim it's "fake news" - something Russia seems to be expert on.

We don't trust Russia. We don't trust China. Why should we let them get away with trusting each other ?

BBC World Service this morning - conspicuous absence of both Shoygu and Putin from public appearances recently and Kremlin and Defence Ministry apparently at each others throats
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yf8f8nkb61t (first 0 minutes)
Radio 4 World At One - knowledgeable analysis and discussion of likely Phase 2 of war for Russia (moving into Moldova?)
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00162ty

Other speakers making very clear the damage being done to world food supplies and economies around the world by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Strongly making case that Russian invasion is negatively affecting all nations.

Zelensky and now US ambassador talking of large scale abductions of Ukrainians to Russia.

@DuncinToffee

Earlier Italy, now Spain

Spain to expel 25 Russian diplomats

FM Jose Manuel Albares announced that Spain is finalizing the list of diplomats who “represent a threat to the security interests of Spain after the terrible actions in Ukraine, especially in Bucha,” Albares said as quoted by El Pais.

I think Sweden and Denmark have also expelled Russian diplomats

Finland is making a decision about expelling them too now, after Sweden and Denmark.

[quote BoreOfWhabylon]BBC World Service this morning - conspicuous absence of both Shoygu and Putin from public appearances recently and Kremlin and Defence Ministry apparently at each others throats
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yf8f8nkb61t (first 0 minutes)
Radio 4 World At One - knowledgeable analysis and discussion of likely Phase 2 of war for Russia (moving into Moldova?)
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00162ty[/quote]

Do you have a time code for that discussion about Shoigu and Kremlin tensions etc ? Thanks @BoreOfWhabylon

It's one of the first items MagicFox - listen to the first 10 minutes of the programme.

“@MagicFox

BoreOfWhabylon
BBC World Service this morning - conspicuous absence of both Shoygu and Putin from public appearances recently and Kremlin and Defence Ministry apparently at each others throats
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yf8f8nkb61t (first 0 minutes)
Radio 4 World At One - knowledgeable analysis and discussion of likely Phase 2 of war for Russia (moving into Moldova?)
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00162ty

Do you have a time code for that discussion about Shoigu and Kremlin tensions etc ? Thanks @BoreOfWhabylon”

I just listened. I don’t have a time code but it is maybe roughly 5 -10 mins in but it is worth listening to all the lead in. The person speaking was in Chechnya in 1995 and starts by describing the conditions which lead to atrocities - lack of leadership. He is making comparisons. Then he goes on to say how Shoigu and Putin have not really been seen.

From 05:50

Multiple Russia-watchers reporting that the Russian media is priming people for more 'fake news' coming out of areas such as Sumy, i.e Russia has committed massacres in these places but is pre-empting their discovery with 'fake news' accusations.

Ukrainian government reporting that Russia is massing bodies in Mariupol and is planning to accuse Ukraine of mass-murder of civilians and 'provocation.'

Thanks both