Christmas weather forecast thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Christmas is almost in the medium term GFS model range but it's well within the GEFS 35 day model range.

www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

From the above link, it seems at present that the weight of the various model runs seems to show a below average surface temperature, but settled with high pressure in charge.

Of course it's a way off yet, but I'll keep the thread updated, especially as other models come into range. In the mean time lots of fog for the south of England tomorrow and heavy rain for parts of Scotland. We may see a bit of a warm up coming, but I don't think it will last long.

[Oddgirlout]

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten I do love your threads xx

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

you're welcome!

[JamieLeeCurtains]

Ooh I love a @OhYouBadBadKitten weather thread ⛄❄

[FadedRed]

Love your weather threads OhYouBadBadKitten.
When I saw this on ‘Active’ I thought you might be predicting the the type of massive snowfalls that are happening in parts of Europe now. Bit disappointed.

[sluj]

Looking forward to this thread, I love the snow watch
Thank you

[rumandbiscuits]

It would be lovely to have a white Christmas this year

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The GEFS tends to indicate a dry, settled cold period over Christmas.

But the latest run of GFS which now goes to the 23rd has gone into fantasy snow land time. showing lots of snow for many. It is a big switch from the previous model run which was in general agreement with GEFS.

Of course we are still stretching time times here, but it looks pretty!

We do have a snow watch thread going in weather too. The complicated bit happens when 'snow watch' and 'Christmas weather' crash into each other.

[InMySpareTime]

Great visual of the Manchester Snow Shield

[Twickerhun]

I want snow!!!!

Give me snow!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So it is MySpareTime!

[GloriaSmud]

Yay - another year, another Christmas forecast thread!

InMySpareTime

Netweather's latest Christmas forecast.

Metoffice long range covers just about everything...

Friday 11th-Sunday 20th December
Initially settled overall with the greatest chance of rain in the east. However, there will be a steadily increasing chance of more widespread unsettled weather, bringing cloud, rain, and possibly some hill snow at first, arriving from the Atlantic. The rain, accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales at times, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east should remain drier longer. Towards the end of the period, it is likely that things will start becoming more settled again, though outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels. Temperatures are likely to begin below average, but quickly trending to around average. A chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Sunday 20th Dec - 3rd Jan
Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times. This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

[TooExtraImmatureCheddar]

Placemarking hopefully!

[Pascha]

@OhYouBadBadKitten

The GEFS tends to indicate a dry, settled cold period over Christmas.

But the latest run of GFS which now goes to the 23rd has gone into fantasy snow land time. showing lots of snow for many. It is a big switch from the previous model run which was in general agreement with GEFS.

Of course we are still stretching time times here, but it looks pretty!

We do have a snow watch thread going in weather too. The complicated bit happens when 'snow watch' and 'Christmas weather' crash into each other.

Well that seems to show snow for me so it must be a lie.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Have to say, both models are still looking cold around the Christmas period. GEFS throws a snowball in just after Christmas.

ponders what happens if people get snowed in to other people's homes after christmas

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

At the moment, GFS and GEFS have both switched to a milder, wetter prospect for Christmas. Still very early days though.

[GloriaSmud]

I'd say it's looking like a green but chilly Christmas Day at the moment.
Boxing Day has potential though!

[InMySpareTime]

That even covers Manchester! 🤞❄️

[Pascha]

Just looks wet for me

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Now that's a chart and a half!

[80sColourfulChristmas]

Yay! We're right in the dark pink! ☃️

[TooExtraImmatureCheddar]

Oooh. Will be close to dark pink bit on Boxing Day so maybe we can drive home in a blizzard. DH will cry if we have to stay with his parents for an extra day!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The models keep flipping. If Id posted yesterday evening, snow/cold lovers would be sad. But as I've hung on til this morning you can all be happy again.

[TokyoSushi]

Ooh I just had a thought, I wonder if OYBBK knows anything about the Christmas weather forecast? Of course there's a whole thread! You never let me down!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

At the moment the scenarios are: cold with some snow about or mild and unsettled!
It's a bit bonkersly uncertain.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'd say that at the moment models are leaning towards a cold snap over Christmas, with several model runs leaning towards snow for some - primarily, but not exclusively, in the north