Christmas weather forecast thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Christmas is almost in the medium term GFS model range but it's well within the GEFS 35 day model range.

www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx

From the above link, it seems at present that the weight of the various model runs seems to show a below average surface temperature, but settled with high pressure in charge.

Of course it's a way off yet, but I'll keep the thread updated, especially as other models come into range. In the mean time lots of fog for the south of England tomorrow and heavy rain for parts of Scotland. We may see a bit of a warm up coming, but I don't think it will last long.

Oh please let them be right. 2020 has been so rubbish, a bit of snow would cheer me right up.

Sunday's Christmas forecast from Netweather (another update today.) Might be the chance of a flake or two.

I've been desperate to update all day, but simply not had the time. It's getting quite exciting!

As usual, there is a lot of uncertainty in the detail. At the moment, a summary of the models could be condensed as:

22nd looks potentially wet , with snow on some northern hills and cooling down quite substantially.

After that we we look to be in a colder, unstable feed of air. Depending on the direction of the air flow, pretty much anywhere could see some snow flakes perhaps over Christmas. At the moment, my feeling is that it looks more like an easterly feed - but let's see what happens.

Of course it may change, but it looks pretty hopeful for a cold christmas period. The 27th looks a bit interesting in terms of snowfall - I'm keeping an eye on it.

normally whispers of possible snow over christmas would have everyonerather excited.

I'M EXCITED!!

Eeeeeek!! Please, for the love of God let one good thing happen this year!

I will be so so happy if this happens OYBBK!!

Now it really is nearly Xmas! It can snow to its heart's content as I can't fly "home" this Xmas. 🎅

I'm too far south to believe any of it will materialise near me.

We've just got the sleet symbol (Cheshire) on 27th & 28th, it's a start!! 😁

It looks pretty set now I think that temperatures will cool down from the NW southwards during the 23rd.

Christmas Eve everywhere should be feeling pretty cold, with frosts and fog where skies are clear. It looks cold enough for snow! I just don't know where or how much.. High pressure looks fairly well in control over the south east and south.

Christmas Day. continues the theme. Cold. Very similar to Christmas Eve.

As for Boxing Day - I think things are looking more uncertain. Models begin to diverge significantly.

27th - I'm still keeping an eye on this!

We are still 9 days out, and plenty can change. All models are on board with a cold spell - but differ with the nature and length of the cold spell.

Got everything crossed here (SE).

I think we could all really do with a bit of magic this Christmas ❄️

I don't know if I dare to get excited as I may not cope with the disappointment if it doesn't happen!

I think to be honest the likelihood in any one place is pretty low tbh, but it's fun to look and hope still.

@Pascha

I'm too far south to believe any of it will materialise near me.

South east here. I love frost and fog and am hating the 13 degree “winter” we’ve been having. Snow will be for others. We’ll just get missed out 😔

Still a lot of uncertainty around Christmas - but it does look cold and more festive, with potential for snow showers still.

The express are reporting a White Christmas so now I know it's definitely not going to happen!

I think it may be somewhere in the uk.

I was looking at our long range forecast last night.

We are due quite a wet day on 23rd, and while it does get colder after that, it is fine and sunny with no precipitation. So could be ideal for brisk walks (possibly not for Christmas Eve swim, eek!!), but while I'm hopeful, I am not optimistic for white stuff at present. And the projected cold is not as cold on today's forecast as it was on yesterdays....

The models aren't showing much for Christmas day it's true, though definitely colder. But the 27th is shaping up very nicely at present - could cause some chaos if it comes off, as people leave for home.

twitter.com/ABC/status/1339892837492682753?s=09
Time lapse video of snowfall in the American snowstorm. I'm not in the slightest jealous, oh no, not a bit. 😡

I hope we get something other then the incessant rain and howling wind which we have had for the last two days.

@Justmuddlingalong

twitter.com/ABC/status/1339892837492682753?s=09 Time lapse video of snowfall in the American snowstorm. I'm not in the slightest jealous, oh no, not a bit. 😡

Love this.

I so want some decent snow! I love it. The light, the muffled sound, the crispness.....❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

My local paper in the East of England was promising snow specifically on 27 December a couple of days ago! Does that mean they might be right (for once)?

mackerella it's way too early for detail or location, but it's hopeful!

Anxiously checking this thread every so often to see OYBBK and Gloria's latest views on what will happen 24th onwards. It's obviously still all quite uncertain....