The Mumsnet Christmas Weather thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

An annual tradition

caveats: We are still some way off, models will chop and change. Plus I'm an amateur (with limited time) so I often get things wrong!

While I look at models, check out the Santa Shaker! www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

I love these weather threads....but I'm really hoping for mild weather as I loathe the cold, especially snow. Sorry! 🌦️

Much easier to chill the wine outside if it's cold

Havig a quick peek at the 12Z GFS run. It seems to make Boxing Day the transition day now - with low pressure sliding along the south coast, bumping into cold air, potentially bringing snow on its northern edge though gfs thinks not). Often these lows seem to sink further south with each model run once they start appearing, so if it verifies, it is going to be fascinating to watch where it goes. It does show a great weather pattern for snow lovers afterwards though.

UKMO 12z looks interesting too. It finally reaches mid day Christmas Day. Cold air sweeps in from the north though the morning with temperatures around 1-2 degrees from the midlands up, a little warmer in the SW but looking like it will cool down further.

We might want to watch the 23rd too. for a brief period of snow in the northern half of the UK.

Love it.

Thanks bad kitten

Thanks! Still 🤞🤞🤞 for snow

Looking promising for us here in the North East ⛄️

I've been following the lovely weather enthusiasts of youtube, and it's looking interesting. We'll see easily excited here, but trying to be realistic too.

Morning!

GFS: On Christmas Eve a band of rain crosses much of the country. Christmas Day - snow for much of southern and central Scotland, perhaps into parts of northern England. On Boxing Day low pressure sweeps across the south, bringing snow across its north eastern edge after a period of rain - so quite possibly not settling. Snow showers feed in across northern Scotland. After that, a messy mix of some snow and some rain through the week.

ECM gives a colder but drier solution through Christmas with some snow overnight on 23/24 in parts of northern England, but then brings a low pressure across on the 27th that could bring in snow and rain (incidentally, it shows a very stormy situation for northern France).

BBC Forecasting heavy snow now for NE coast. Hope this is firmed up in the next day or two kitten. We are so close to Christmas now. I can smell the snow! ❄❄❄

Mines showing rain at the moment!!

6/7° and rain for us now. Worst of all worlds.

Just rain for us 😔 ah well...

Boo! Same here, much warmer and rain!

And us. Between 8/4 degrees and wet all day. Boo!

I've been holding off as the models are still all over the place. But to summarise:
GFS: Christmas day. Mild in the south with wet. Stupid grrr. (I am verrry grumpy tonight). Boxing Day: snow for Wales, Midlands and northern England, then wednesday 29th looks like a terrible mix of heavy rain and snow for all.

ECMWF: Wet and horrid. Stupid.

Arpege. Reaches Christmas eve now. Wet.

UKMO: Christmas Day - wet. Snow perhaps in northern England and northern Wales.

This is OYBBK spreading festive good cheer to all the nation.

Hopefully a good nights sleep will sort me out!

Cannot remember a Christmas in the South that wasn't mild, wet and grey

grumpy here too...

Yep looked good on the models earlier in the day for the south but any snow looks to be midlands northwards now.

I didn't actually think that we would get a Somerset white Christmas but it was fun to think we might

It's proper pants how the models teased us earlier. I'm in a huff and may need to go and eat mince pies!

GFS: Christmas eve. A weather front crosses, bringing rain from Liverpool down. Perhaps some snow across some northern areas.
Christmas Day. A lot of wet to start but then on the northern edge of the low snow starts to fill in from north wales, across parts of East Anglia. Through Boxing Day a messy mix.
It still seems quite keen on snow for the 29th for the south and as for NYD, it blankets practically all of us with snow.

ECMWF instead keeps things mild and wet throughout.

Sorry folk.

@RainbowZebraWarrior

It's proper pants how the models teased us earlier. I'm in a huff and may need to go and eat mince pies!

AIUI it's down to chaos theory. A small change in a variable can lead to a vastly different outcome. All we can do is wish very hard

I'm with you on the mince pies...

There still isn't total clarity.

It looks like a wet period for everyone in England for a time on Christmas Eve. A little snow over Scottish hills.

On Christmas day I think there may be some snow on the pennines, it's possible there may be a temporary breach of the manchester snow shield. Then we enter a time of unsettled weather of which the details are as yet even more impossible to fathom.

ah well!

A temporary breach of the Manchester snow shield!

1 degree here on the NE coast of England. Freezing rain. Having none of it, I tell you. None of it.

EducatingArti I blinked and missed the breach.

EducatingArti I blinked and missed the breach last time - hears hoping!