The Mumsnet Christmas Weather thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

An annual tradition

caveats: We are still some way off, models will chop and change. Plus I'm an amateur (with limited time) so I often get things wrong!

While I look at models, check out the Santa Shaker! www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas

Very interesting last update OYBBK

DD finishes school tomorrow. I've decided we are keeping ourselves to ourselves to stay safe (pointless risking catching something or having to isolate over Christmas - DD has already done Panto and we had nothing else planned anyway) So, lots of time doing crafts, baking and watching movies / playing on Animal crossing. Would love to see flakes starting to fall on Christmas night. By the sounds of it I'm in with a chance (NE England)

Santa shaker calls it at 35% so far...

Eeek, the sleet symbol has appeared on Christmas day on my weather app in Cheshire, it's a start!

That's a good start!

Ooh, ooh. I've just checked and I now have snow symbol!!!

Love a weather thread, thanks.

Sooo exciting!

I need family to arrive safely first on the 24th then look forward to Snowmaggedon

What have I only just found this thread this year ?

Anyhow even in deepest Kent we have sleet showing after Christmas. Does that mean it will be more yuk than nice?

My weather app has a 40% chance of snow xmas day. Temps between 4 & -1!

Just a quick post at the moment - busy day at work , so I'm sneaking off for a mo.This is an exciting chart for Christmas eve/Christmas day. The model hasn't finished updating yet, but it effectively sweeps cold air in while bringing snow and gales across the country.

It is only one model and only one model run, but what a Good King Wenceslas feel it would have.
(I'm going to ignore the disruption side for the time being!)

That's typical! The one year I go away to the coast for Xmas and it looks like we might get snow at home! Any chances of it spreading as far south west as Cornwall?

At the moment I wouldn't like to place any bets on the forecast at all.

But to summarise:

GFS -gales and snowy right into the south for Christmas day for many. Continuing cold and snowy for the entire period. (into far off forecasting fantasy land)

ECMWF (currently updating) snow showers and proper cold.

UKMO - I can only see up to 22nd but showing a nice cold set up as we go in towards the period.

GEFS ensembles: still a spread of milder scenarios showing as well as the very cold ones.

Thank you so much OYBBK, but if snow predicted for us in W Yorkshire ⛄️⛄️⛄️ but, @GloriaSmud I NEED a link to the Santa shaker site

Sorry, random 'if' there, you can tell I am delirious with excitement

@hoochyhooha 'Tis here!
My chance of snow has increased to 30% for the Midlands!

Thank you 🥰

Oh GFS model, you are letting us down. mild and damp for Christmas.

In the mean time ECMWF actually has a messy wet picture for Christmas day itself but brings in cold air behind it with a slider low on Boxing Day, bringing in snow across the south.

The met office have this to say: "Met Office Expert Meteorologist, Dan Rudman, said: “There is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the Christmas period. Whilst there is certainly a risk of wintry conditions for many places, other outcomes are still possible such as warmer air to move across the UK bringing rain widely with any potential snow being restricted to higher ground and the far north." from www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/unsettled-christmas

UKMO model is currently updating.

I think the summary is that we lie on a knife edge really as to whether we do draw in cold air, or whether the atlantic wins this battle. Again.

/pass the sherry please.

Wait!
/puts down sherry bottle (disgusting stuff anyway)

UKMO model has finished updating. Charts only go up to Christmas Eve so its a bit of a tease but in this run Cold looks like it will win, with a slider low across the south again.

The word 'rollercoaster' is possibly a bit overused on the weather forums, but it does seem rather apt at the moment

Oooo so exciting! Thanks OYBBK.

Oh fingers crossed for anything that isn't mild, grey and damp! Cold please, cold and snow would be fab

Morning, a fairly quick update this morning. Models in no particular order:

GEFS ensembles - a big spread after the 23rd - but generally temps below 5c for most of the members, with a reasonable number colder. Upper air temperatures in England - again a mixed picture, with an even bigger spread. Precipitation jumps around too. Ensembles in Scotland more favourable for cold.

GFS 00Z run. This model really isn't settling down at all. Every moel run seems to vary wildly. At one point yesterday it showed full blown wild storms for us. I really wouldn't trust it at all. Anywaym this time round, it brings in Snow for Scotland on Christmas Day - followed by the traditional Boxing Day deep low pressure. I won't go further than that as its clearly pointless at present.

ECMWF - again shows some atlantic influence, but bumps it into cold air over us - so a mix of snow and rain for the south on Christmas day, transitioning to snow for the Midlands on Boxing Day.

UKMO now goes out to Christmas Eve. For this it shows mild in the SW and south coastal areas, cooler to cold elsewhere. Miserable and damp.

is the best summary.

I'm refusing to think about covid from here on in and will only look at headlines and posts with the words snow bomb and snowmeggedon.

@FourTeaFallOut

I'm refusing to think about covid from here on in and will only look at headlines and posts with the words snow bomb and snowmeggedon.

Same

I would love a snowmageddon, it would at least give us something else to talk about!! We’re on the south east coast so unlikely I guess!!

Great thread! I am a weather enthusiast too! A snow bomb would be timely and would be a natural and far more fun circuit breaker if nobody can get about easily!